Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz announced yesterday that nine more Iowans are being charged with “voter fraud.” As you can see from the statement I’ve posted below, eight Waterloo residents face election misconduct charges (a Class D felony) because they registered to vote and cast ballots in the 2012 general election, even though they are felons whose voting rights had not been restored. One Lee County resident who is also an ex-felon is charged with registering to vote and casting a ballot in a 2013 local election.

By my count, Schultz’s obsessive hunt for voter fraud has now yielded criminal charges in 25 cases, representing less than a thousandth of one percent of ballots cast in Iowa’s recent local, state, and federal elections. Most of the cases involve felons whose rights had not been restored, though not all of the accused cast ballots–some had merely registered to vote. No proof has emerged that any of these people knew they were committing a crime. They may have assumed that they had a right to vote, because tens of thousands of Iowa ex-felons had their voting rights restored during Governor Chet Culver’s tenure. They may have assumed they were able to vote once offered a registration form.

Most important, none of these cases could have been averted if Schultz had accomplished his goal of forcing Iowans to show a photo ID when voting on election day. It’s likely that many of these improperly registered voters filled out a form after renewing a driver’s license. Schultz’s full-time criminal investigator has not found anyone guilty of impersonating another voter on election day, which is the only kind of fraud that a photo ID law could prevent.

The new defendants will probably be effective poster children for Schultz’s Congressional campaign, though. Republicans love the fantasy that making it more difficult for thousands of people to vote will somehow protect “election integrity” in Iowa.  

Once upon a time, a few moderate Republicans served in the Iowa legislature. Sometimes they faced primary challenges from the right, because conservatives resented their positions on social issues and their willingness to compromise with statehouse Democrats.

Social moderates are long gone among Iowa House and Senate Republican ranks, but party leaders prefer not to talk about, let alone deliver on, some of the key priorities for hard-liners. That leads to occasional infighting between mainstream Republican lawmakers and those who want to rock the boat.

One of the proud non-compromisers, Tom Shaw, just announced plans to retire from the Iowa House. His comrade-in-arms Greg Heartsill will face at least one Republican primary challenger in Iowa House district 28.

Republican State Representative Mary Ann Hanusa confirmed yesterday that she will seek a third term in the Iowa House rather than running for Congress in the open third district.

“It’s an honor to have people ask me to consider running for Congress, and I did consider it, but it’s not the right time to make that run.”

No surprises there. The field of Republican candidates in IA-03 already includes Secretary of State Matt Schultz, who formerly was a city council member in Hanusa’s home town of Council Bluffs. Hanusa was easily re-elected in 2012, even though President Barack Obama won more votes than Mitt Romney in Iowa House district 16. She will have no trouble winning again in a midterm year. Why give up a safe Iowa House seat for a longshot bid to be her party’s Congressional nominee?

Hanusa’s decision indicates that the IA-03 Republican primary will be an all-male affair unless Governor Terry Branstad’s legal counsel Brenna Findley takes a shot at it. I expect Findley to stay out, although she could credibly claim to have moved the needle on some key conservative issues in her current job. In addition to Schultz, David Young, Joe Grandanette, Monte Shaw, and Robert Cramer have announced plans to run in IA-03. State Senator Brad Zaun is likely to join the race soon.

Who attended their Democratic or Republican precinct caucuses tonight? I was at Indian Hills Junior High School, where Democrats and Republicans from Windsor Heights, Clive, and some parts of West Des Moines gathered. Not surprisingly, turnout was low on the Democratic side, with light snow and temperatures in the teens shortly before 7 pm. Approximately 60 people total showed up from the eight or nine precincts at our location. A representative from Staci Appel’s campaign addressed Democrats at our caucus, as did a gubernatorial candidate I’d never heard of: Zachary Newbrough of West Des Moines. His key issues include improving education, mental health reform, embracing diversity in Iowa, and smokers’ rights (although he didn’t mention the last one at the caucus).

I didn’t sit in on the Republican caucuses, but I walked by their rooms after they broke into precincts from Windsor Heights and Clive. By my count, each precinct had approximately 15-20 participants. Although the weather was bad today, I expected more Republicans to come out tonight, given that Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign and several GOP candidates were said to be mobilizing supporters. Branstad’s team wants to make sure the state convention backs Kim Reynolds for lieutenant governor, and the Republican nominations for IA-03 and U.S. Senate may be decided at conventions if no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote.

Any comments about the off-year caucuses are welcome in this thread. I’d particularly like to hear from Bleeding Heartland readers on caucus turnout in the first Congressional district, where the Democratic and Republican nominations could conceivably go to conventions.

Iowa Senate district 15 wasn’t on my top tier of Iowa Senate races to watch or among the competitive seats recently mentioned by Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal. However, I am revising my view amid new signs that Republicans will make a strong push against five-term Democratic incumbent Dennis Black.

After the jump I’ve posted background on Black and the three Republicans who plan to challenge him, along with a district map and the latest voter registration totals.  

Republican State Representative Tom Shaw announced on Facebook last night that he will not seek re-election in Iowa House district 10. Defending his “no compromise” approach to serving in the legislature since his first election in 2010, Shaw quoted a retired California legislator as saying, “When we give in to liberals, even an inch, we’re not compromising; we’re abdicating our rights and our honor.” Shaw and his close allies, State Representatives Kim Pearson and Glen Massie, were perhaps best known for helping to block in committee and later voting against a 20-week abortion ban bill, on the grounds that it did not go far enough to end abortions. Pearson and Massie both retired from the Iowa House rather than seek re-election in 2012. Last year, Shaw could persuade only ten of his Republican colleagues to co-sponsor his more extreme version of a “personhood” bill declaring life to start at conception.

Iowa House district 10 covers Humboldt, Pocahontas, and Calhoun counties, plus portions of Webster County (but not Fort Dodge). I’ve posted a map after the jump. It leans strongly Republican, with nearly 3,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats as of January 2014.  

Shaw confirmed by telephone this morning that he is retiring from the state legislature and will not consider running against Democratic State Senator Daryl Beall in Iowa Senate district 5. Shaw’s retirement may be good news for Beall, as the open Iowa House seat comprising half the district should draw more Republican interest than taking on a three-term incumbent in a much more competitive Senate district. Beall currently has one declared challenger, Fort Dodge-based financial adviser Tim Kraayenbrink.

UPDATE: The first candidate to declare for Shaw’s seat was Mike Sexton, who was elected to the Iowa Senate in 1998 but retired after one term. I’ve posted background after the jump. I would guess that an experienced candidate and former legislator would have been a tougher challenger to Beall than Kraayenbrink. But not surprisingly, Sexton sees the open House seat as an easier path back to the statehouse. I would guess that at least one tea party oriented candidate will compete against Sexton in the House district 10 primary.

At least two Democrats will run for governor this year. Jonathan Narcisse, a former Des Moines School Board member and third-party gubernatorial candidate, announced his candidacy this morning at the African-American Museum of Iowa in Cedar Rapids. I don’t have a video from today’s event, but after the jump I’ve posted a speech Narcisse gave last month when he announced the creation of his exploratory committee. Among other things, he proposes to provide free college education for Iowa students who agree to do community service during the summers and to stay in the state for a certain number of years after graduation. Bleeding Heartland posted more background on Narcisse here. He received a little less than 2 percent of the vote in his independent campaign for governor in 2010.

Narcisse will be a big underdog in the Democratic primary, where State Senator Jack Hatch is better known, has more political experience, and will have the resources to run a more extensive statewide campaign. Hatch just reported raising nearly $300,000 for his gubernatorial campaign in 2013, plus $140,000 in loans from himself and his wife. At year-end, his campaign had $236,943.18 cash on hand.

This morning, former State Representative Ed Fallon endorsed Hatch, saying he “has been a strong progressive voice fighting for a better Iowa” for decades. Fallon represented areas of central Des Moines in the Iowa House for twelve years; during part of that time, Hatch served in the state House and Senate. Fallon ran for governor in 2006 and finished third in the Democratic primary for governor with about 26 percent of the vote. I’ve posted part of his e-mail blast after the jump.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Added clips on the Narcisse announcement below.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

I never got around to pulling together news clips on Governor Terry Branstad’s official campaign announcement Wednesday night. After the jump I’ve posted the video of his speech to that rally in Des Moines. Easy for him to take credit for the improving economy when he came back to politics shortly after the worst U.S. recession in 60 years. Every state is doing better economically today than it was four years ago, regardless of which party controls the statehouse or the governor’s mansion. At one of his first re-election campaign stops, Branstad told a Pella audience about some of the achievements and goals he outlined in his speech to state lawmakers earlier this week. As usual, Branstad appeared alongside Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds. He said their focus will be on jobs, especially STEM jobs (science, technology, engineering and math jobs). Branstad and Reynolds held campaign events in thirteen Iowa cities and towns from Thursday through Saturday.

Sam Roecker noted that Olivia Newton John’s “Physical” was the top single the first time Branstad was elected governor in 1982. That one brings back memories: my brother took me to see her concert at Vets Auditorium in Des Moines on the “Let’s Get Physical” tour.

Speaking of blasts from the past, I recently came across a video of “Republican Clair Rudison” telling a bunch of Iowa high school students that the GOP was historically the civil rights party. Which was true 150 years ago and even 60 years ago. But it hasn’t been that way for a long time. Why do you think the states where segregation was most entrenched swung from the Democratic to the Republican Party since the 1960s? Why are Republican politicians the driving force behind efforts to suppress African-American votes in so many states now?

If Clair Rudison’s name sounds familiar, it’s because last time we heard from him, he was masquerading as a Democrat in order to challenge State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad in a 2010 primary. Rudison’s campaign was funded in part by conservatives who opposed marriage equality, so I’m not surprised to see him identifying with Republicans now. In fact, he has endorsed Steve Rathje in the GOP primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district. I’ve posted his endorsement letter after the jump.  

I was skeptical about these rumors, but according to Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican, Governor Terry Branstad’s legal counsel Brenna Findley “has been meeting people about a congressional run in the Third District.” Findley told the Des Moines Register “that she appreciates the encouragement, but she’s focused on her job” in the Branstad administration. That phrasing falls short of ruling out a Congressional bid.

Follow me after the jump for first thoughts on strengths and weaknesses Findley might bring to a GOP primary campaign. At the end of this post, I’ve enclosed background on the potential candidate from her 2010 campaign bio and the news release announcing her appointment as legal counsel.  

Yesterday Robert Cramer became the fifth declared candidate in the GOP primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district. His official campaign announcement, which I’ve posted below, characterizes Cramer as “a full spectrum conservative candidate” who is “deeply involved with conservative causes in his community and in Iowa since 1996.” He is president and chief administrative officer of a construction business his father helped create more than 50 years ago. Cramer previously served on the school board in Johnston, a suburb of Des Moines, and has chaired the board of the FAMiLY Leader, a social conservative group led by three-time gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats. Governor Terry Branstad nominated Cramer for a position on the Iowa Board of Regents last year, but the Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate did not confirm him.

Incidentally, State Senator Brad Zaun, who will soon join the Republican field in IA-03, voted against sending Cramer and two other Board of Regents nominees to the Iowa Senate floor as a “symbolic gesture to show his displeasure with the fact that wealthy political contributors typically serve on the Board of Regents.” However, Zaun ultimately supported Cramer’s nomination when it came before the Iowa Senate.

Thanks to his personal wealth and business contacts, Cramer should be able to raise plenty of money for a Congressional campaign. Whether he can distinguish himself from the rest of the field is another question. Zaun, Matt Schultz, David Young, Monte Shaw, and Joe Grandanette will also be campaigning as both fiscal and social conservatives.

If no candidate wins at least 35 percent of the vote in the June primary, a district convention will select the Republican nominee in IA-03.

For the second time in a week, Iowa’s Democratic representatives in the U.S. House Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) voted for a bill calling attention to problems with the federal government’s implementation of the 2010 Affordable Care Act. Depending on whom you believe, the Exchange Information Disclosure Act is either an effort to improve oversight and transparency through weekly updates or what Representative Henry Waxman called an attempt to impede the new law by “drowning the Department of Health and Human Services in red tape.” Nevertheless, 33 Democrats including Braley and Loebsack joined all of the Republicans present to approve the bill yesterday (roll call). I haven’t seen any comment on this bill from them or from Representatives Steve King (IA-04) and Tom Latham (IA-03), who both supported it.

No matter how many anti-Obamacare bills Braley and Loebsack vote for, their opponents and outside conservative groups will run campaign ads attacking them for having helped pass the 2010 health care reform law. In fact, Americans for Prosperity (a right-wing group funded by the Koch brothers) is running television commercials in Iowa right now targeting Braley, the Democratic candidate to replace Tom Harkin in the U.S. Senate. The commercials focus on the so-called “lie of the year,” President Barack Obama’s claim that “If you like your health care plan, you will be able to keep your health care plan.” Scroll to the end of this post to read the Braley’s campaign’s response, which includes the ad script. In November, Braley and Loebsack voted for a bill that would let some consumers stay on insurance plans that don’t comply with all Affordable Care Act requirements.

Iowa Renewable Fuels Association Executive Director Monte Shaw resigned from the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee today in order to run for Congress in the open third district. Shaw told Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker,

In the weeks that have passed since Congressman Latham’s announcement my wife, Tina, and I have been humbled by the people who have contacted us and suggested that I run for Congress.

We have both been committed to advancing the conservative agenda for America and being advocates for Iowa.

That commitment has driven my entire adult life, from managing campaigns for Jim Ross Lightfoot and Chuck Grassley, to serving as a national spokesperson for Steve Forbes and renewable fuels, working to protect the elderly on the Senate Select Committee on Aging and most recently eight years heading one of Iowa’s most important agricultural associations as well as volunteering for the Republican Party at the state and local levels. […]

Tina and I have engaged in much prayer, consideration and somber reflection and have reached the conclusion that the best way to continue that twenty year commitment is for me to seek the Republican nomination to fill Tom Latham’s big shoes in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Shaw will formally announce his campaign in the next few weeks, joining David Young, Secretary of State Matt Schultz, Joe Grandanette, and probably also Robert Cramer and State Senator Brad Zaun in the GOP primary.  

Democratic State Senator Matt McCoy told the Des Moines Register that he will not run for Congress in the open third district. McCoy has been thinking about a Congressional bid for more than a decade, but “After careful consideration with my family, and my 14-year-old son, Jack, I have decided that this is not the right time in my life to run for Congress.” Instead, he will seek re-election this year to the Iowa Senate, where he chairs the Commerce Committee and is an assistant majority leader.

McCoy will easily be re-elected in Iowa Senate district 21, covering parts of Des Moines and West Des Moines. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by about 4,500, and President Barack Obama won nearly 59 percent of the vote here in 2012.

McCoy’s decision leaves Staci Appel in the driver’s seat for the Democratic nomination in IA-03. She has raised approximately $500,000 for her campaign so far (haven’t found her latest filing yet on the Federal Election Commission website) and won the endorsements of many labor unions and progressive interest groups. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has promised her early support as well. Gabriel De La Cerda is also seeking the Democratic nomination in IA-03. He’s a first-time candidate and former Iowa political coordinator for the United Steel Workers Union.

Former State Representative and Polk County Auditor Ned Chiodo formally announced on Monday that he will seek the Democratic nomination in Iowa Senate district 17, which Senator Jack Hatch is vacating to run for governor. Chiodo has been planning his campaign since last summer.

The district covering parts of downtown Des Moines and most of the south side will not be competitive in the general election, as it contains more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans. But the Democratic primary will be an epic battle featuring two giants of south-side politics (Chiodo and former State Senator Tony Bisignano) and Nathan Blake, a relative newcomer to Iowa politics. Bisignano has the backing of a large organized labor group. Blake goes into the primary as an underdog, but presumably his chances improve if Bisignano and Chiodo split the south-side vote.

A map of Senate district 17 is after the jump, along with Chiodo’s press release containing a short bio. His legislative priorities include expanding the “use of tax credits for neighborhood revitalization” and “reimbursing the City of Des Moines for the cost of services it currently provides to the State for free.”  

Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal is “fairly confident” going into this year’s state legislative elections, he told Mike Glover in a recent interview. He cited a “pretty good message” to take to voters as well as a “a slight advantage on the map” that will allow Democrats to play “a little less defense and a little more offense,” compared to 2012.

I agree with Gronstal that Democrats are better positioned now to hold their 26 to 24 majority in the upper chamber than they were at the same point two years ago. Follow me after the jump for a quick look at the eight districts the Senate majority leader expects to be targeted this fall.

As Republicans prepare to make “Obamacare” a central argument against any incumbents who voted for the 2010 health care reform law, many House Democrats are looking for political cover. So it was on Friday, when a third of the Democratic caucus voted for the latest Republican bill in the U.S. House targeting the law. Pete Kasperowicz reported for The Hill,

The one-sentence bill says that no later than two business days after any security breach on an ObamaCare site is discovered, “the Secretary of Health and Human Services shall provide notice of such breach to each individual.” […] The White House said it opposed the bill, arguing the government already has plans to tell people if their information has been compromised. […]

Democrats said the GOP was trying to stir up fears about HealthCare.gov and the other enrollment sites by raising the idea that people’s personal information could be stolen.

“There have been no successful security attacks on HealthCare.gov, and no one has maliciously accessed personal information,” said Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). “This is just another one of those scare tactics, and I just hope that my colleagues, both Democrats and Republicans, are not fooled by this.”

The roll call on the “Health Exchange Security and Transparency Act” shows that Iowa Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) were among the 67 House Democrats who joined all the Republicans present to approve this bill by a large margin. Neither called attention to the vote with a press release. After the jump I’ve posted the statement from Representative Steve King (IA-04), who has long been one of the most vocal critics of the Affordable Care Act. I didn’t see any statement from Tom Latham (IA-03), who also voted for this bill.

Like the last anti-Obamacare measure Braley and Loebsack supported, this bill will neither become law nor insulate the Democrats from attacks during this year’s campaigns for U.S. Senate or Iowa’s second Congressional district.  

Only two days after rolling out plans to eliminate cash purchases, the Iowa State Fair board of directors announced yesterday that they will not require tickets for all vendor purchases at this year’s state fair.

Officials said they plan “to investigate future implementation of a more progressive system that will eliminate Fairgoers’ concerns of the inconvenience of paper tickets and long lines, improve the concessionaires’ reporting system and accommodate the Fair’s infrastructure.”

Feedback was overwhelmingly negative on all the comment threads I read this week, because the no-cash rule would inconvenience fairgoers. The state fair board will have to look for other ways to combat the problem of some vendors failing to report their full sales.

Meanwhile, Governor Terry Branstad’s office quickly released a statement noting that he and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds “applaud” the State Fair Board’s decision. I’ve posted the statement after the jump. It does not explain whether Reynolds, who serves on the state fair board, argued against the planned no-cash policy before fair officials announced it in a letter to vendors this week. I have to say, it’s smart politics for Branstad to insert himself into this controversy. It costs him nothing to come out against a deeply unpopular change to the state fair.

Governor Terry Branstad’s office announced today that the governor accepted Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ resignation as director of the Iowa Department of Public Health. I’ve posted the press release after the jump. It does not explain why Miller-Meeks stepped down after nearly three years running the state agency.

Yesterday Miller-Meeks told the Des Moines Register that her false comment about Mountain Dew being the top purchase for Iowa food stamp recipients was “not political at all.”

“What I was trying to – perhaps not deftly – argue or state was: Should we have nutritional education for SNAP [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program], like we do for WIC [aid for Women, Infants and Children], and some prohibition for certain items?”

I would guess that her resignation is related to plans to run for Congress in Iowa’s second district, not any gaffe about food stamps. Heck, in the Republican Party what Miller-Meeks said probably isn’t even a gaffe.  

Republican Stan Gustafson easily won yesterday’s special election in Iowa House district 25, defeating Democrat Pam Deichmann by 1,619 votes to 694. The outcome is no surprise, as the district covering Madison County and parts of Warren County leans heavily Republican. I am curious to see whether Gustafson faces competition in the GOP primary this June. The official bio he released after being nominated for the special election did not mention that he held elected office before and was recalled by voters.

According to a report by the Associated Press in 2005, Gustafson helped pass a plan to build a new sewer plant in Los Osos, Calif. While the plant was reportedly needed, the project would have cost homeowners between $1,000 and $4,000 each, plus a $200 monthly sewage charge.

The plan for the new sewer system was scrapped after the recall election, according to the same report. […]

Gustafson said in a telephone interview this week that he served two terms on the [Los Osos Community Service District] board before he was recalled. He said that was the only public office he has held.

Gustafson was asked about his electoral history in a questionnaire from the Record Herald and Indianola Tribune, but did not answer the question.

I don’t know whether Gustafson was right or wrong about the sewer system, but he should not have erased his prior public service from his resume when he became a candidate in House district 25. By the time the Des Moines Register’s story appeared on January 4, many residents had already voted in this special election. I could see this further background on Gustafson inspiring some tea party Republican to challenge him in the primary this spring.

Still no new word from State Senator Brad Zaun and Secretary of State Matt Schultz, but the Republican field in Iowa’s open third Congressional district is expanding. Joe Grandanette and David Young are already running, and Robert Cramer told the Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs today that he is “90 percent there” and “just putting together a plan” for a campaign.

Cramer served on the Johnston school board for nine years and is currently the chairman of the board of the Family Leader, an Iowa organization that pushes for evangelical Christian conservative policies. He’s co-president of Cramer & Associates, Inc., a Grimes-based bridge construction company that does work around the Midwest.

Last year Governor Terry Branstad appointed Cramer to serve on the Iowa Board of Regents, but most Iowa Senate Democrats blocked his confirmation.

Meanwhile, State Senator Charles Schneider told the Des Moines Register’s Jason Noble yesterday that he will not run for Congress. He was just elected to the Iowa Senate for the first time in 2012.

Any comments about the IA-03 race are welcome in this thread. Jake Porter, the Libertarian candidate for Iowa Secretary of State, released a statement on Matt Schultz’s likely Congressional campaign. I’ve posted that after the jump. Speaking of secretary of state candidates, the 2006 GOP nominee for that office, Mary Ann Hanusa, expects to decide whether to run in IA-03 before the off-year Iowa caucuses on January 21. Hanusa is a two-term state representative from Council Bluffs. She would be favored to win re-election if she stays put in Iowa House district 16.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention David Oman, a former staffer to Governor Branstad during his first stint as governor. He is wealthy enough to self-fund a Congressional campaign and is thinking about this race. Oman unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for governor in 1998. I think he is perceived as way too moderate to win a primary now.

Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign collected more than $3.4 million in contributions during 2013 and ended the year with more than $4.1 million cash on hand and no debts, the campaign announced yesterday. I’ve posted the press release after the jump. The huge war chest means that the governor’s campaign will be able to pay for an extensive GOTV program, if (as appears likely) the Republican Party of Iowa lacks the funds to do so later this year.

The first real test of the Branstad campaign’s vaunted organization will be the off-year caucuses on January 21. The governor’s team are encouraging supporters to attend precinct caucuses with a view to being elected delegates to Republican county conventions, district conventions, and eventually the state convention. The goal is to undercut any potential state convention challenge to Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds as the governor’s running mate. Last week an Iowa caucus GOTV piece from the governor’s campaign hit Republican mailboxes (you can view it here).

Speaking of the lieutenant governor, some Iowans suspect that Branstad intends to step aside at the last minute and allow Reynolds to file as a candidate for governor this March. I don’t believe in that scenario for several reasons, not least because under Iowa law, the Branstad campaign could not simply transfer its enormous bank balance to a Reynolds for governor effort.

The press release I’ve posted below quotes Reynolds as “pleased with the progress we’ve made to bring 137,000 jobs to Iowa.” That alleged job creation figure is highly misleading, because it counts only jobs gained and not jobs lost in recent years. The upshot is that the Branstad administration claims credit for job “gains” even in months when Iowa had a net loss of jobs. In any event, no matter who is governor, fluctuations in Iowa’s unemployment rate track closely with changes in the national unemployment rate.

Final note on the Branstad campaign: its new spokesperson is Tommy Schultz. His predecessor Jimmy Centers moved to the position of communications director for the governor last month after Tim Albrecht (who ran communications for Branstad’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign) left the governor’s office to join a new political marketing firm called Redwave Digital, a partnership with longtime Republican strategist David Kochel.

Didn’t take long for news to force me to update last week’s post on Iowa Senate races to watch in 2014. Today Johnson County Deputy Sheriff Kevin Kinney announced his candidacy in Iowa Senate district 39. After the jump I’ve posted a district map and Kinney’s press release. He is also a corn and soybeans grower and a cattle producer on a century farm. Republican State Senator Sandy Greiner is not seeking re-election in Senate district 39, and the seat should be competitive. The latest numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office indicate that Senate district 39 contains 13,294 registered Democrats, 13,320 Republicans, and 16,452 no-party voters.

Richard Gilmore was the first Democrat to announce in this district in September. I would consider Kinney the favorite to win the nomination, because as John Deeth points out, Democratic primaries in Johnson County have relatively high turnout, and Johnson County has gained more residents than other parts of the district since Iowa’s redistricting plan was adopted in 2011. Gilmore is from Washington County.

FEBRUARY UPDATE: Kinney’s campaign is on the web here.

State Senator Janet Petersen has decided against running for governor in 2014, she told Todd Dorman of the Cedar Rapids Gazette yesterday.

Petersen, 43, said family concerns led to her decision. She has children age 6, 9 and 12, and a husband who travels frequently for work. She said trying to balance the demands of a statewide race with her work in the Senate is also a worry. […]

Petersen weighed the prospects of a campaign “struggling with taking on a governor who has been governor forever and doesn’t miss a parade or ribbon cutting,” she said. And, in the end, she decided to stay out of the race.

Last month Petersen ruled out running for Congress in the third district.

An early endorser of Tyler Olson for governor, Petersen had been considered a likely running mate for Olson if he had won the Democratic nomination. Now she’ll go on the list of likely candidates for governor sometime in the future.

State Senator Jack Hatch is now the prohibitive favorite to be Governor Terry Branstad’s Democratic opponent this year. Jonathan Narcisse may enter the Democratic primary, but otherwise Hatch would face only token opposition from Paul Dahl.

State Senator Brad Zaun will have company in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s third Congressional district. Today David Young told the Des Moines Register that he is ending his U.S. Senate campaign to run in IA-03.

In an exclusive interview, Young said when he began pondering a run for elective office he had the 3rd in mind, assuming that Latham would run for the Senate seat opened by U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin’s retirement in 2014.

Shifting to the Senate race made sense once Latham took himself out of that contest. As of September 30, Young had $124,052.27 cash on hand for his Senate campaign, which would go further in a Congressional district than in a statewide primary.

Meanwhile, Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz announced today on Facebook, “I have received a lot of support and encouragement as I have considered becoming a candidate for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. Next week, I will be making an important and exciting announcement about this race and my future plans to fight for Iowa.” I’m no marketing guru, but I think it’s more exciting to say what you’re doing than to promise “an important and exciting annoucement” soon. I suppose the idea is to make the news twice instead of once. Zaun took the same approach.

I agree with John Deeth’s preview of a forthcoming IA-03 Republican debate: “Mr. Schultz, explain your position on the farm bill. ‘Voter ID.’ Should we intervene in Syria? ‘Voter ID.’”

State Senator Jack Whitver confirmed today that he will run for re-election in Iowa Senate district 19 rather than run for Congress in IA-03. Likewise, State Representative Chris Hagenow will pass on the Congressional race to seek re-election to House district 43 and as House majority whip. In a message to supporters, Hagenow wrote, “Serving in Washington D.C. at this time will not allow me to be the husband and father that I have promised to my family.  After prayerful consideration, we believe that I can best serve the people of Iowa by continuing my work in the state legislature.”

Former State Representative Bob Krause announced on Facebook a few minutes ago that he is withdrawing from the Iowa governor’s race after exploring a candidacy for most of 2013. He has endorsed State Senator Jack Hatch in the Democratic primary and plans to “act as a surrogate speaker and policy advisor to the Hatch campaign,” specifically helping with outreach to veterans and labor unions.

Krause also announced that he plans to run against U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley in 2016. He was one of three Democrats who challenged Grassley in 2010 and finished second in the primary with just under 13 percent of the vote. He urged Iowa Democrats “to give me the same clean shot at defeating a sitting incumbent as I am giving Jack Hatch.” I’ve posted excerpts from Krause’s Facebook post after the jump.

Krause has long been an advocate for veterans suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, traumatic brain injury, and/or military sexual trauma. This weekend he is organizing a workshop in Urbandale on responding to military sexual trauma.  

It’s the time of year for blog posts about notable candidates and upcoming elections. Every politically engaged Iowan knows already that 2014 will be an unusually exciting year. We haven’t seen an open U.S. Senate race since 1974. The last time Iowa’s first Congressional district was open was in 2006. The last time Iowa’s third Congressional district was open was in 2002, but it wasn’t a wide open seat, since incumbent Representative Leonard Boswell moved into Polk County to run. Amazingly, 1940 was the “last time there was a Congressional race in Polk County without an incumbent seeking re-election.” All of Iowa’s statewide elected officials are up for re-election as well this year, and the secretary of state’s position may become open if Matt Schultz decides to go for the Republican nomination in IA-03.

Since Bleeding Heartland readers already know about the big Iowa races to watch, I want to focus today and tomorrow on the elections that are likely to determine control of the Iowa House and Senate in 2015 and 2016.  

Three-term Democratic State Senator Amanda Ragan has her first declared challenger, as Timothy Junker announced yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination in Iowa Senate district 27.

Ragan’s race is one of a handful of contests that will likely determine control of the Iowa Senate after 2014. As of December 2013, Senate district 27 contained 11,997 registered Democrats, 13,396 Republicans, and 17,747 no-party voters according to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office. I’ve posted a district map after the jump. It covers Franklin County, part of Butler County, and most of Cerro Gordo County, including the population center of Mason City.

Junker is from Butler County and served six terms as the elected county sheriff before President George W. Bush appointed him U.S. Marshal for the Northern District of Iowa in 2006. Since leaving that position in 2010, “Junker has been selling real estate for Schuck Realty Co., served on the Allison City Council and Allison Tree Board, and is an active member of Trinity Reformed Church, Allison Am Vets and the Am Vets/Legion Drill Team.” He has been exploring this candidacy for some time and held a meet and greet with Franklin County Republicans earlier this month.

I’ve heard rumors of several other Republicans considering this race. This fall, some Mason City residents received telephone polls asking whether they would support former Mayor Bill Schickel or Ragan for the Senate seat. Other possible candidates include former Mason City Mayor Roger Bang and former State Senator Merlin “build my fence” Bartz, who runs Representative Steve King’s Mason City office. Bartz would have to move from his Worth County farm to run against Ragan, though. Cerro Gordo County GOP Chair Gabe Haugland was on my radar because he considered running for the Iowa House during the last election cycle. But he told me today that he is “99 percent sure” he is not running in Senate district 27.  

A governor committed to a certain policy will have his staff or a commission work out a plan, then push hard for its adoption in his annual address to state legislators. We’ve seen Governor Terry Branstad take that route in the past to support commercial property tax cuts or education reform.

A governor casting about for a re-election campaign issue may advocate some vague idea, then blame its inevitable defeat on his political opponents. Case in point: Branstad’s half-assed “plan” to allow higher earners to opt into a lower state income tax rate with fewer deductions.  

Republican State Senator Brad Zaun posted on Facebook and twitter today, “I hope each of you had a great Christmas! I will have some big news to announce after the first of the year and I look forward to sharing it with my supporters and friends first!” (Hat tip to Bleeding Heartland user rockm.)

The suspense would be greater if the message weren’t coming from the “Zaun for Congress” Facebook page and Twitter account.

Longtime Iowa politics watchers will recall that Zaun emerged from a crowded Republican primary to be the GOP nominee in Iowa’s third Congressional district in 2010. However, he fell short against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. Zaun was just re-elected in 2012 to his third four-year term in the Iowa Senate, so he wouldn’t have to give up his set in the legislature to run for Congress next year. But from where I’m sitting, he’ll struggle to convince GOP primary voters to give him another chance to represent IA-03. He hasn’t delivered much for the party. During his time as the Senate Republican minority whip, he didn’t raise a lot of money for fellow Iowa Senate candidates, despite representing some of the wealthiest precincts in Iowa. Zaun gave up his Senate minority leadership position shortly after the 2012 election, when Republicans failed to win a majority in the upper chamber.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread.

Representative Tom Latham’s surprise retirement announcement last Tuesday was an early Christmas present to some ambitious Republicans (who now have an opportunity to move up) as well as to Democrats (who now have a prayer of winning IA-03).

Here’s a new thread on potential GOP contenders for the vacant seat next year. My thoughts on many possible candidates are after the jump. Appearing on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program, Latham said he does not expect to endorse a candidate in the GOP primary to represent IA-03. He added that he might become a lobbyist or work for a charity after leaving Congress.

Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson reports today that Jonathan Narcisse is considering a gubernatorial bid as a Democrat in 2014. Narcisse endorsed Chet Culver during the 2006 IA-Gov primary, then briefly considered running against Culver in the 2010 primary before launching an independent campaign instead. You can find background on Narcisse here and issue positions from his previous campaign on this website. In the 2010 general election, he received more votes than the Libertarian candidate, finishing with 20,747 votes statewide (about 1.9 percent). According to Henderson’s report today, Narcisse has ruled out running as an independent next year and now considers his 2010 choice “naive” and a “mistake.”

Since State Representative Tyler Olson ended his campaign last week, State Senator Jack Hatch is the only declared Democratic candidate for governor. Former State Representative Bob Krause is still in the exploratory phase but sounds likely to make his campaign official early next year. He recently told the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s James Lynch that Olson’s departure will be a “turning point,” adding, “I’ve turned from a dark horse to a horse.” State Senator Janet Petersen, an early Olson endorser, is also thinking about running for governor.

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz confirmed on Tuesday that he is seriously considering running for the open seat in Iowa’s third Congressional district. He’ll make up his mind during the next few weeks.

The more I think about the potential risks and benefits for Schultz, the more I think he will go for it.  

Time for a new thread on other Democrats who may join former State Senator Staci Appel and Gabriel De La Cerda as candidates for Congress in Iowa’s third district. Right now my best guess is that State Senator Matt McCoy will throw his hat in. He was planning to run for Congress in IA-03 way back in 2001, but he stood aside when Representative Leonard Boswell decided to move to Des Moines. McCoy has said previously (and confirmed again this week) that he would consider running for an open Congressional seat. He could raise substantial money as the chair of the Iowa Senate Commerce Committee and is well-known in the LGBT community as our state’s first out gay legislator. One complicating factor for McCoy: he is up for re-election next year in Iowa Senate district 21, covering parts of Des Moines and West Des Moines. He would have to give up his Senate seat in order to take a chance on IA-03.

Several other prominent Democrats contacted by the Des Moines Register indicated directly or through associates that they are thinking about this race, but I just don’t see former Governor Chet Culver, Polk County Democratic Party Chair Tom Henderson, former Des Moines City Council member Michael Kiernan or Dr. Andy McGuire following through.  

Any new Democrat who enters this primary will be playing catch-up. As of September 30, Appel’s campaign had nearly $200,000 cash on hand. Perhaps more important, her campaign sent out a press release on December 18 highlighting more than a dozen groups that are standing by their endorsements of her candidacy. I’ve posted that release after the jump. The loyal Appel endorsers include several labor unions, Planned Parenthood Voters of Iowa, EMILY’s List, and the LGBT advocacy group Human Rights Campaign.

Democrats who have ruled out a candidacy in IA-03 include Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Janet Petersen, and Boswell’s 2008 Democratic primary challenger Ed Fallon. The Des Moines Register’s Jennifer Jacobs mentioned Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie and both Tom and Christie Vilsack as possible candidates, but I would be shocked if any of them ran for Congress next year.  

Lining up with a Republican pollster’s survey last month, Quinnipiac’s latest Iowa poll shows Democrat Bruce Braley with single-digit leads over all of the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, despite record low approval for President Barack Obama. Full results are here. Key findings:

President Barack Obama gets a negative 38 – 59 percent job approval rating among Iowa voters, according to a poll released today, his lowest score in the state and one of his lowest in any state or national survey conducted by Quinnipiac University. […]

President Obama gets negative scores of 30 – 67 percent among men, 45 – 51 percent among women, 7 – 93 percent among Republicans and 31 – 62 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 82 – 15 percent. […]

In the 2014 Senate race, U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, gets 43 percent, while U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, the Republican, gets 40 percent. Braley tops other possible Republican contenders:

44 – 38 percent over State Sen. Joni Ernst;

46 – 37 percent over businessman Mark Jacobs;

44 – 36 percent over former U.S. Senate aide David Young;

45 – 34 percent over radio commentator Sam Clovis;

46 – 40 percent over political activist Bob Vander Plaats. […]

Iowa voters say 46 – 41 percent that they want the Republican Party to control the U.S. Senate.

The usual caveat applies: this poll of 1,617 registered voters has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, but a survey of Iowa voters eleven months before the midterm election doesn’t necessarily reflect the group of Iowans who will cast ballots next fall.  

Any comments about the U.S. Senate race are welcome in this thread. Braley will be pleased to be leading every Republican, even among respondents who overwhelmingly do not approve of President Obama’s job performance and narrowly prefer GOP control of the U.S. Senate. He should be behind in this survey.

Iowa Republicans can take heart that Braley is below 50 percent against every opponent, despite having higher name recognition.

Democratic State Senator Janet Petersen told reporters today that she is “thinking about” running for governor next year. Petersen was an early endorser of State Representative Tyler Olson, who just dropped out of the governor’s race.

Who would advise Petersen to take this course? All polls taken this year, including two surveys released this week, indicate that Governor Terry Branstad will be extremely difficult to beat in 2014. Meanwhile, an open Congressional seat in central Iowa is almost a once in a lifetime opportunity. IA-03 is very winnable for a Democrat, and without meaning any disrespect to Staci Appel, Petersen has more legislative experience and accomplishments. She would be a stronger Congressional candidate.

Either way, Petersen doesn’t need to give up her Senate seat to run for higher office. After serving six terms in the Iowa House, she was just elected to represent Iowa Senate district 18 in 2012. She won’t be up for re-election until 2016.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: So much for that idea. Senator Petersen responded to my request for comment: “It would be an honor to serve Iowans in Congress, but my family and I don’t want to move to DC.” I understand the decision; she has three young children.

Before I got sidetracked by the shocking news about Tom Latham, I was working on a post about Republican Mark Jacobs’ first television commercial, which hit the airwaves yesterday. Follow me after the jump for the video and transcript.

I’m not sure it’s a great use of campaign funds to advertise during the holiday season nearly six months before the primary, but Jacobs is the only Republican candidate for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat who can afford to buy tv time. He may as well exploit that advantage. The Jacobs campaign went up on statewide radio earlier this month. This relatively small buy of $138,000 will run the introductory spot on cable statewide and on network television in the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Sioux City markets through January 4. Sioux City is the home base for Senate candidate Sam Clovis, who needs a strong showing in northwest Iowa to have any hope of winning the nomination.  

Like the latest Des Moines Register poll, Quinnipiac’s new Iowa poll shows Governor Terry Branstad in a commanding position heading into next year’s election.  

State Representative Tyler Olson announced today that he is ending his campaign for governor.

While focused on supporting my children through the transition in my personal life it is clear they need my full attention. It is time to end my campaign for Governor.

I will continue to focus on my family, finish my term as state representative, rejoin Paulson Electric and look for opportunities to serve my community as time allows.

Shortly after Thanksgiving, Olson revealed that he and his wife are divorcing. At that time, he signaled that he planned to resume campaigning for governor in the new year. I think ending his candidacy is the right decision, and I assume he heard similar feedback from many of his supporters. Olson is young and will have opportunities to run for public office again.  

To my knowledge, only one candidate is already running to succeed Olson in Iowa House district 65: Democratic activist Liz Bennett.

UPDATE: Here’s the list of state legislators who had endorsed Olson. Here’s the list of those who had already endorsed State Senator Jack Hatch.

The latest poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register finds Governor Terry Branstad in a commanding position going into his undeclared but very likely sixth campaign for Iowa governor.

Among 650 Iowa adults surveyed between December 8 and 11, 58 percent of respondents approved of Branstad’s job performance, while just 33 percent disapproved. The governor’s favorable/unfavorable ratings were 58 percent/34 percent. Furthermore, 55 percent of respondents feel Iowa is generally moving in the right direction, while just 33 percent think the state is on the wrong track. The margin of error for this poll is plus or minus 3.8 percent, and although “Iowa adults” may not be perfectly representative of the 2014 voter universe, any incumbent governor with these numbers would be heavily favored to win another term.

The Democrats who have announced plans to run against Branstad are mostly unknown to Iowans. According to the Register’s poll, 73 percent of respondents didn’t know enough to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion about State Senator Jack Hatch, 79 percent were not sure about State Representative Tyler Olson, 76 percent were not sure about former State Representative Bob Krause, and 87 percent were not sure about first-time candidate Paul Dahl, who announced his campaign in October. In a ballot test, Branstad led Hatch by 52 percent to 29 percent and led Olson by 51 percent to 28 percent. Hatch announced yesterday that he is putting $200,000 of his own money into his gubernatorial campaign. It will take a lot more money than that to raise his name recognition significantly statewide. Even then, something dramatic probably would need to happen to dent Branstad’s approval enough to make him vulnerable. The governor may not be responsible for a decrease in Iowa unemployment that has closely tracked the national jobless rate, but assuming the economy continues to improve slowly, many voters may give the incumbent credit.

Any comments about the governor’s race are welcome in this thread.  

I’ve heard several accounts of a push-poll going around Iowa’s second Congressional district since shortly before Thanksgiving. The call apparently asks about four-term incumbent Dave Loebsack, his declared Republican opponent Mark Lofgren, and his 2008 and 2010 opponent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who appears likely to run for Congress again. Some Republican-aligned entity clearly paid for the calls, because the script alleges that millions of people have lost their health care (a reference to many health insurance plans being cancelled for not meeting new federal requirements). The script also suggests that Loebsack lied about the health care reform law he voted for in 2010.

I encourage Bleeding Heartland readers to stay on the line and take notes whenever you receive a push-poll or a legitimate survey testing messages for or against any candidate. If you received a call like this recently in IA-02, any details you can remember would be helpful, such as the question wording, question order, or who paid for the call (should be mentioned at the end). You can either post information in this thread or contact me confidentially: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.

One person thought the call came from “Victory Polling.” The Davenport-based political consulting firm Victory Enterprises has a polling division and has been doing work for Lofgren’s campaign. It’s also possible that the National Republican Congressional Committee or some conservative group that gets involved in House races would pay for calls hitting Loebsack on health care reform.