You have to hand it to the Republican strategists behind a new vehicle that may collect tens of thousands of names and addresses for future use by Governor Terry Branstad’s re-election campaign.  

Bob Krause announced today that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in 2014 “as long as Bruce Braley is in the race,” but may consider running for governor or for Congress next year. Krause was the first declared challenger to Senator Chuck Grassley in 2009. He finished a distant second to Roxanne Conlin in the 2010 Democratic primary.

Krause now lives in the Des Moines area, so a Congressional bid would presumably be in the third district. So far Mike Sherzan is the only declared challenger to 10-term incumbent Republican Tom Latham.

The full statement from Krause is after the jump. He and Governor Terry Branstad go way back; during the 1970s, they served in the Iowa House at the same time, representing districts next door (two halves of the same Iowa Senate district).

Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy announced this morning that he is running for Congress in the first district. After the jump I’ve posted his open letter to Iowans, which for now is the only content on his campaign website. He’s on Facebook here and on Twitter here.

Murphy has represented part of Dubuque in the Iowa House since winning a special election in 1989. He was House speaker from 2007 through 2010. I give him huge credit for having the guts and integrity to welcome the Iowa Supreme Court’s decision on marriage from day one, when some Democrats were running for cover. On the whole, I was disappointed by how little was accomplished during the years Democrats controlled the state House and Senate as well as Terrace Hill. Iowa didn’t reform the tax system to make it less regressive, we didn’t make much progress on labor or environmental issues, we didn’t pass a state-level DREAM act or even repeal the English-only law. In most of those cases, the Iowa House caucus was the key roadblock.

A competitive primary is healthy for a party, and I expect other Democratic candidates to emerge in IA-01. Among other things, Murphy will need to explain why Democrats should nominate a man to replace Bruce Braley when we finally have a good chance to send our state’s first woman to Congress. He told Erin Murphy of the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald that he is “used to tough races,” knows “what I’m getting into” and “what fundraising is like.”

Tea party enthusiasts and Democrats were cheered yesterday to hear Representative Steve King say that the “needle has gone over 50 percent” toward him running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate in 2014.

I’m not buying it.

No Republicans have announced firm plans to run for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district, but several people are definitely or rumored to be considering the race.

To evaluate who is best poised to win this Democratic-leaning district, it’s helpful to look at where the votes are in a Republican primary as well as in a general election. After the jump I’ve posted a district map, the latest voter registration numbers for the 20 counties in IA-01, and a brief take on some of the possible Republican candidates.  

Democrat Mike Sherzan announced today that he is running for Congress in Iowa’s third district. I’ve enclosed his press release after the jump, along with excerpts from Sherzan’s comments to the National Journal. He’s on Facebook here and on Twitter here. For now, the Sherzan for Iowa website is only set up to collect donations and the names of volunteers.

Bleeding Heartland covered Sherzan’s biography in this post. If Republican incumbent Tom Latham decides to run for the open U.S. Senate seat, I expect several other Democrats to run in the IA-03 primary, including possibly State Senator Matt McCoy. Otherwise, the field may be clear for Sherzan to take on Latham, which will be an uphill battle. On paper, this looks like a swing district, with 159,939 active registered Democrats, 166,109 Republicans, and 157,442 no-party voters as of February 2013. But Latham consistently outperforms the top of the Republican ticket and gained more votes than Mitt Romney in every IA-03 county last November.

State Senator Kent Sorenson has made news lately leading the charge to restore the death penalty for some crimes in Iowa. I wonder whether that popular cause will be enough to save his political career, in light of recent claims by Republicans who have worked closely with him.  

Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum does not plan to run for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district but is considering a run for governor in 2014, she confirmed in a telephone interview today.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? A few links related to Iowa demographics are after the jump, along with highlights from this week’s “Iowa Press” program, featuring Republican Party of Iowa Chair A.J. Spiker and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson.

This is an open thread.

The Des Moines Register’s Friday edition includes the key findings from its first Iowa poll by Selzer & Co. on the 2014 U.S. Senate race. The top Democratic contender to replace Senator Tom Harkin would be former Governor Tom Vilsack, who has not expressed any interest in the campaign.

Representative Bruce Braley e-mailed supporters this morning to confirm that he is “setting up a committee to run for the U.S. Senate.” Excerpts from the e-mail are after the jump.

I’ve also enclosed below the latest news on Karl Rove’s effort to prevent unelectable Republican candidates from winning U.S. Senate primaries. Iowa talk radio host Steve Deace wants conservatives to try to “beat Karl Rove at his own game.”

Governor Terry Branstad is a “pretty clear favorite” for re-election, according to a new Iowa poll by Public Policy Polling.

Representative Tom Latham (IA-03) told journalists in Washington yesterday that he is thinking about running for the U.S. Senate in 2014. He declined to specify when he will announce his plans, but he said he will “make my own decision” rather than be influenced by Representative Steve King (IA-04). Deirdre Walsh reported for CNN,

Pressed if he thinks a Senate bid by King could hurt the GOP’s chances of taking the seat – something other national Republicans have expressed concerns over – Latham told reporters outside the House floor that King is “a very viable member of Congress.”

If Latham wants the Senate seat, he would be advised to announce sooner rather than later. A few days ago, King told conservative talk radio host Larry O’Connor that he is “fifty-fifty” on running for the Senate seat. Click through to listen to King’s comments. In weighing his decision, he is considering “whether the energy is out there” to support his bid and “whether we can raise the money” for a statewide race. I still expect King to stay in IA-04, where he’s safe for the next decade, but he may be tempted to take on the Republican establishment.

The least likely scenario in my mind is Latham and King running against each other in a GOP primary. If one of them announces a Senate campaign, the other will stay out. A new Wenzel Strategies poll of “likely Republican primary voters” in Iowa found that King would be the early leader in a Senate primary, with Latham in second place and Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds third. Public Policy Polling surveyed Iowa Republicans over the weekend and found King leading among moderates as well as among respondents who described themselves as “very conservative.”

UPDATE: I missed this story at the Rothenberg Political Report last night. Latham’s changing the name of his campaign committee from “Latham for Congress” to “Iowans for Latham.”

SECOND UPDATE: Michael Devine, a talk radio host for KVFD AM 1400 in Fort Dodge, posted on Facebook today, “Congressman Steve King told us this morning the chances are ‘better than 50 percent’ he will run for the Senate.”

THIRD UPDATE: Excerpts from Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa poll findings are after the jump.

All signs point to Representative Bruce Braley running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014, so I thought I’d put up a new thread to discuss scenarios in the first Congressional district.

Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy plans to run in the Democratic primary for IA-01. I don’t think he’s as strong a candidate as either Senate President Pam Jochum or State Senator Liz Mathis would be, and it is long past time for Democrats to nominate a woman in an open seat that leans Democratic. The latest numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office show that IA-01 contains 167,987 active registered Democrats, 140,227 Republicans, and 196,078 no-party voters.

On the Republican side, I am seeking comment about a possible Congressional bid from both Ben Lange and Rod Blum. Both ran against Braley in 2012; Blum narrowly lost the primary. Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ran for IA-01 when it was last an open seat in 2006, but he has ruled out running for Congress next year as he tries to take back the Senate majority for the GOP. CORRECTION: Dix lives in Butler County, which used to be in IA-01 but is now in IA-04 under Iowa’s new map.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. A race between Blum and either Jochum or Murphy would be an all-Dubuque affair.

After a dismal performance by his political vehicles in 2012, the man once known as “Bush’s brain” is working to stop unelectable Republican candidates from winning GOP primaries in 2014. Jeff Zeleny reports in today’s New York Times that Karl Rove’s super-PAC American Crossroads is creating the “Conservative Victory Project.” One of Rove’s associates confirmed that stopping Representative Steve King from becoming the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in Iowa will be a priority.

Details and toplines from the first poll on the open IA-Sen race are below.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread. To get a conversation started, I posted a bunch of links about campaign finance after the jump, focusing on news related to Iowa’s 2014 contests for U.S. senator and governor.

At the end I included an old but “new to me” story about Ron Paul’s habit of double-billing travel expenses. What will his admirers in the Liberty movement say?

State Senator Mark Chelgren celebrated his 45th birthday last week with cupcakes for fellow senators and a promise that he will try to change an obscure part of the Iowa Constitution.

Legislators often introduce bills solely to make a political statement, but even in that context, Chelgren’s effort is an impressive feat of irrelevant grandstanding.  

Representative Bruce Braley braved some pretty bad winter weather this morning to meet with Iowa House and Senate Democrats at the state capitol. I haven’t seen any details about his remarks, which were closed to the public and media. No doubt he is trying to gain early backing for a U.S. Senate candidacy. State Senator Steve Sodders posted on Facebook and twitter today, “Great morning speech today by Congressman Braley…I’m a supporter.” Sodders represents Iowa Senate district 36, which is part of the first Congressional district where Braley just won a fourth term in the U.S. House.

I’ll update this post later if any news leaks about the substance of Braley’s meetings today. My money’s on no serious Democratic primary opposition once he launches his Senate run. He told reporters that U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chair Michael Bennett have encouraged him to run for the seat Senator Tom Harkin is vacating.

Iowa politics watchers continue to chew over the possibilities for the open U.S. Senate race next year. To no one’s surprise, Governor Terry Branstad ruled out a Senate bid this morning, saying he’s never been interested in leaving Iowa to serve for six years in Washington, DC. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds told journalists that she is focused on the Branstad administration’s agenda for Iowa but keeping her “options open” on the Senate race. Many other Republicans are thinking about it too, and only Representative Tom Latham has the potential to clear the field.

On the Democratic side, speculation continues to center around Representative Bruce Braley, who confirmed yesterday that he is considering running for Tom Harkin’s seat. If Braley takes on the Senate race, many Democrats expect State Senator Liz Mathis to run in the first Congressional district. She is well-known among Iowans in the Cedar Rapids television market, thanks to her previous career in news broadcasting. Senate President Pam Jochum of Dubuque said today that the IA-01 race is “something to think about.” Jochum indicated that to run and serve in Congress, she would need support for her developmentally disabled adult daughter, who lives with her.

Any comments related to the reshuffle in Iowa politics are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Also no surprise: Democratic State Senator Matt McCoy of Des Moines would consider running in IA-03 if Latham goes for the Senate seat.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix ruled out running for either the U.S. Senate or IA-01 in 2014. Dix left the Iowa House in 2006 to run for the open seat in IA-01, but finished second in the GOP primary. Further updates are after the jump.

Iowa Labor Commissioner Michael Mauro is considering another run for secretary of state in 2014, he confirmed in a telephone interview yesterday. If he runs, he will face Brad Anderson in a Democratic primary.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee met today in Des Moines to rubber-stamp the election of State Representative Tyler Olson as state party chair for the next two-year cycle. No other candidates were considered for the position. Bleeding Heartland posted background on Olson here. Although the Republican Party of Iowa is dysfunctional in many ways, I prefer their method for choosing a party leader. There’s no reason not to have multiple candidates speak publicly to the state central committee about the party’s pressing tasks and what strengths they would bring to the top job.

Also today, the Iowa Democratic Party announced that Troy Price will be the new executive director. He replaces Norm Sterzenbach, who held that position for six years. Price worked for Governors Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver and later became executive director of the LGBT advocacy group One Iowa. He left that group to serve as political director for President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign in Iowa.

Olson and Price have their work cut out for them, with an open U.S. Senate seat to defend and a tough race against Governor Terry Branstad in a midterm election year. The Obama campaign ran a fantastic ground game, but no database or micro-targeting expertise will magically transform a midterm electorate into the presidential-year electorate more friendly to Democratic candidates.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s press release announcing its new officers is after the jump. Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

Free advice for the IDP’s leadership team: don’t invite the media to cover your Soviet-style election if you’re going to kick them out as soon as things get interesting.

Terrible news for Iowa Democrats: Senator Tom Harkin told Tom Beaumont of the Associated Press that he will retire rather than seek re-election in 2014. Not only will there be an open seat at the top of the ticket, the Iowa Democratic Party won’t be able to count on Harkin’s millions to fund a decent coordinated GOTV campaign in a midterm election year. Even if Democrats manage to win that statewide race while Governor Terry Branstad’s also on the ballot, we will lose an Iowan in charge of a powerful Senate committee. Incoming Iowa Democratic Party Chair Tyler Olson has a difficult road ahead.

Representative Bruce Braley is likely to run for Harkin’s seat, and unless either Tom or Christie Vilsack is interested, the primary would probably be uncontested. The silver lining here is a chance to elect a woman to Congress in IA-01. Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum would be my first choice, but there are many capable Democratic women in those 20 counties.

An excerpt from Braley’s appearance on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” this weekend is after the jump. I’ll post further updates there. UPDATE: Much more is below, including the statement from Harkin’s office.

The well-informed Shira Toeplitz reported this week at Roll Call that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee may have a challenger to ten-term Republican Representative Tom Latham in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

I figured that before too long, Democrats would float some possible candidates for IA-03 in 2014. I didn’t figure that the leading recruit would be someone I’d never heard of.

State Representative Tyler Olson told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson that he has enough support on the Iowa Democratic Party’s State Central Committee to be chosen as state party chair this Saturday. Some background information on Olson is after the jump.

One of the most unpleasant members of the Iowa legislature may have committed an ethics violation, according to a former consultant for Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign.

The National Republican Congressional Committee released a memo today outlining a strategy to “stay on offense” during the 2014 electoral cycle. No Iowa district is among the top seven NRCC targets, but the districts currently represented by Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) are on the long list of 45 seats Republicans see a chance to pick up.

Today’s Sunday Des Moines Register features a long story by Jennifer Jacobs about Representative Bruce Braley considering a run for governor in 2014.  

Barack Obama’s 2012 Iowa campaign manager Brad Anderson confirmed yesterday that he plans to run against Secretary of State Matt Schultz in 2014. I hope there will be a competitive Democratic primary, because from where I’m sitting, Anderson looks like the wrong candidate for this race.

UPDATE: Added details from Anderson’s formal announcement below, along with his campaign bio and a list of Democrats on his steering committee (including Senator Tom Harkin, former governors Tom Vilsack and Chet Culver, Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack, and several former chairs of the Iowa Democratic Party). Looks like there will be no competitive primary.

Yesterday the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee voted to keep letting the inmates run the asylum re-elect A.J. Spiker as state party chair and put Ron Paul supporters in other leadership positions.

Members of Congress are in Washington today trying to make last-minute deals to avoid supposedly dire consequences on January 1. So far it appears likely that some kind of one-year extension of current farm policies will pass in order to avoid a huge price spike for milk and problems for agricultural producers. UPDATE: A nine-month farm bill extension was added to the fiscal cliff bill.

Lots of plans are floating around to deal with the so-called “fiscal cliff”: Bush income tax cuts (last extended for two years in December 2010) are set to expire, along with lower payroll tax and estate tax rates. Meanwhile, various budget cuts are due to go into effect in January, including a “sequester” of federal spending on defense and other programs but also lower Medicare payments to doctors. At this point, I would be surprised if we don’t go over the cliff, and I agree with Senator Tom Harkin that no deal is better than a bad deal.

I will update this post throughout the day and evening with news on Congressional voting. After the jump I’ve enclosed some links on the latest proposals floating around the Capitol. Tremendous hypocrisy is on display. If deficit hawks believed their own propaganda, they would embrace higher taxes and lower spending to solve this supposedly dire threat to the U.S. economy. UPDATE: More news is below.

All signs point toward U.S. Senator Tom Harkin seeking a sixth term in 2014. He loves his policy work and even passed up a chance to chair the Senate Appropriations Committee in order to continue as head of the Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee. In a December 27 e-mail blast from his campaign committee, Harkin indicated that he will “never stop” fighting for the middle class, even though certain “special interests” would love to send him “into early retirement.” Citizens for Harkin finance director Jeremy Gold sent out another fundraising e-mail on December 29, including phrases like “We don’t know for sure who will challenge Tom” and “Republicans are already lining up to challenge Tom.”

I don’t know about Republicans “lining up” to run against Harkin. Early handicappers inside the beltway consider this race a “likely Democrat” hold, and I agree for reasons Bleeding Heartland discussed here. Iowa’s ambitious Secretary of State Matt Schultz already took himself out of contention as a challenger to Harkin in 2014. I would be shocked if either U.S. Representative Tom Latham (IA-03 in the new Congress) or Steve King (IA-04) gave up a safe House seat to be a long-shot in a statewide race. Public Policy Polling found Harkin leading both Latham and King in an October 2011 survey. A poll by the same firm last month found Harkin leading a generic Republican opponent by 48 percent to 40 percent.

Any speculation about Harkin’s re-election campaign is welcome in this thread.

Judging from this thread, Bleeding Heartland readers are interested in scenario spinning about the 2014 Iowa gubernatorial election. Former Governor Chet Culver is among several Democrats considering the race. I’ve posted a few thoughts about that prospect after the jump.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

UPDATE: Dave Wasserman continues to update presidential election popular vote totals on this spreadsheet. As of December 29, Barack Obama has exceeded 51 percent of the popular vote and is nearly 5 million votes ahead of Mitt Romney: 65,892,366 votes to 60,926,847 votes.

Incoming Iowa Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Rob Hogg confirmed this week that his committee will not take up a bill to reinstate the death penalty in Iowa. Republican State Senator Kent Sorenson is not deterred.  

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is paying for robocalls in Iowa’s third and fourth Congressional districts accusing Republicans Tom Latham and Steve King of “holding the middle class hostage.”

On one level, yesterday’s special election in Iowa Senate district 22 was no surprise. One would expect a Republican victory in a district with a large GOP voter registration advantage, where Republicans spent far more money and only the Republican candidate ran television commercials.

On the other hand, the special election loss is a big red flag that Iowa Democrats have failed to communicate how crucial it is to hold their narrow Senate majority.

Losing a re-election contest is no fun for any state legislator, but defeated incumbents often land on their feet. Such is the case with outgoing State Senator Merlin Bartz and State Representative Annette Sweeney.

U.S. Senator Tom Harkin has launched a petition drive urging President Barack Obama “to stand strong and protect the middle class in the fiscal ‘cliff’ negotiations.”

Bombshell news out of Washington today: Jim DeMint is resigning from the U.S. Senate in order to run the Heritage Foundation, an influential conservative think tank.

The Russian expression “stepping on the same rake twice” means to repeat a stupid mistake without learning from the adverse consequences. That idiom came to mind when I saw that the Club for Growth and Senator Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund are already on the warpath against a strong Republican candidate in one of the 2014 U.S. Senate races.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? Many Republicans have been pondering what their party needs to do to win the next presidential election.