Last week Governor Terry Branstad finally introduced legislation to enact his Healthy Iowa Plan instead of the Medicaid expansion foreseen under the 2010 federal health insurance reform law. Strangely, neither the governor’s office nor the Iowa House Republican caucus held a news conference or even posted a press release about House Study Bill 232. The bill arrived at the statehouse on Thursday, April 4, after many legislators had left for the weekend.

So far House and Senate Republicans appear united behind Branstad’s approach, while the governor’s office strives to counter the obvious case against his plan (costs more, covers less). I’ve posted arguments for both sides and other news links after the jump.

President Barack Obama formally presented his draft budget for fiscal year 2014 today. Click through for details, but here are the top numbers:

The $1.058 trillion budget for fiscal year 2014 – which arrived on Capitol Hill about two months late – includes $3.77 trillion in total spending, including entitlements.

It would add $5.3 trillion in new deficit spending over 10 years and increase spending in 2014 by $160 billion compared to current law.

Statements from Representatives Dave Loebsack, Tom Latham, and Steve King are after the jump, along with press releases from several Iowa advocacy groups. I am seeking comment on the president’s budget from all the members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation and will update this post as needed. Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement called attention to the fact that Representative Bruce Braley has not explained his position on changing the Social Security cost of living adjustment to calculate benefits with a chained consumer price index. The president’s budget includes the “chained CPI” proposal, a truly terrible idea. The AARP said today it is “deeply dismayed that President Obama would propose cutting the benefits of current and future Social Security recipients, including children, widows, veterans and people with disabilities, to reduce the deficit.”

Also today, the U.S. Postal Service announced that it has delayed plans to cancel Saturday mail delivery. Comments from Loebsack and Representative Bruce Braley are at the end of this post. Both of them had strongly criticized the idea when floated in February.  

Democratic State Senator Jeff Danielson has not ruled out running for Congress in the open first district next year. I contacted Danielson after State Senator Liz Mathis confirmed on Saturday that she will not seek to replace Bruce Braley. Danielson responded on April 7, “I’m not actively seeking any other office at this time. I’m focused on the work of the Cedar Valley in the [legislative] session.” When I asked whether he might consider a Congressional bid after the session ends, Danielson responded yesterday, “I am keeping all options open for 2014.”

Danielson represents Iowa Senate district 30, covering most of Cedar Falls and part of Waterloo in Black Hawk County. He was just re-elected to a third four-year term in 2012, so he would not have to give up his current position to run for Congress next year. If he won the Democratic primary and the general election in IA-01, there would be a special election in Senate district 30 in early 2015. Republicans have a slight voter registration advantage in that district, but no-party voters have a plurality.

Danielson’s district includes the University of Northern Iowa campus, so he has been a vocal advocate for higher education funding in the Iowa Senate. He has also been a leading voice for better disclosure of campaign contributions. He supports a federal constitutional amendment to overturn the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and limit corporate campaign gifts. In Danielson’s latest re-election campaign, he focused on bipartisan work to support main street businesses and fully fund services Iowans depend on. He also emphasized his commitment to “protecting health care choices for women.”

A Democratic challenger to Representative Steve King has emerged for 2014. Citing an unnamed source, Abby Livingston reported for Roll Call today that Jim Mowrer is “all but certain to run” in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district next year.

Some Bleeding Heartland readers will recognize Mowrer’s name. An Iraq War veteran who used to live in Des Moines, Mowrer headed the Iowa Veterans for Joe Biden committee in 2007 and was Midwest Veterans Chair for the Obama-Biden campaign in 2008. Since late 2009, he has worked as special assistant to the Under Secretary of the Army in the U.S. Department of Defense. Mowrer has also been a senior adviser to Vote Vets, a political advocacy group focused on veterans’ issues.

Livingston’s source says Mowrer has met with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee staff and will run in IA-04 whether or not the seat is open. I am still confident that Steve King will seek a seventh term in the House, but he hasn’t ruled out running for U.S. Senate.

Mowrer could be a strong candidate, but the fourth district is very tough for Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office indicate that IA-04 contains 130,864 registered Democrats, 180,410 Republicans, and 178,050 no-party voters.

Confirming rumors that have circulated for the last two months, State Senator Liz Mathis told the Associated Press this morning that the timing isn’t right for her to run for Congress in 2014.

Appearing on Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program today, Representative Steve King (IA-04) acknowledged that the open U.S. Senate race will be a “slight uphill battle” for any Republican, but asserted that he can see a “path to victory” if he decides to run.

I am still 100 percent convinced that King will opt out of the Senate race eventually, citing personal reasons (not political reality). Nevertheless, his comments on the Senate race are worth reading closely, so I’ve enclosed them below. You can watch the whole interview or read the full transcript here.

King claimed to be unable to think of any positions he has taken that are “out of step with Iowans.” Near the end of this post, I’ve suggested two issues that would become central features in Bruce Braley’s case against King.

David Vaudt announced today that he is resigning as Iowa’s state auditor to become chairman of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board.  

Several Democrats have already announced plans to run for Iowa House district 99 in Dubuque next year. State Representative Pat Murphy has represented part of that city for more than 20 years. He is leaving the state legislature to run for Congress in Iowa’s first district.

After the jump I’ve posted background on Kevin Lynch, Steve Drahozal, Abby Finkenauer and Greg Simpson, along with a map of House district 99 and the latest voter registration totals. More candidates may emerge in this strongly Democratic House seat before the filing deadline in March 2014. One or more of the current candidates may opt out of the race before the filing deadline.

APRIL 5 UPDATE: Erin Murphy of the Dubuque Telegraph-Herald reports that Lynch has decided not to pursue this campaign. According to a Bleeding Heartland reader in Dubuque, both Drahozal and Finkenauer (but not Lynch) addressed county Democrats at the off-year caucus in March.

Representative Bruce Braley’s campaign for U.S. Senate rolled out its largest batch of endorsements today: 71 state legislators. All 26 Iowa Senate Democrats plus 45 of the 47 Iowa House Democrats are named in the press release I’ve posted after the jump. For some reason, Iowa House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy are not in this group. Murphy is running for the first Congressional district seat Braley is vacating.

Earlier this week, Braley’s campaign announced that it raised more than $1 million during the first quarter. That is a solid number, and I’ll be interested to see how the numbers break own (contributions from individuals vs PACs, for instance). Bleeding Heartland will publish a detailed roundup of Iowa Congressional fundraising after all the candidates have filed their reports with the Federal Election Commission. Those reports are due April 15.

In an ideal world, evidence that more than half of Midwest rivers and streams can’t support aquatic life would inspire policy-makers to clean up our waterways. Rivers that are suitable for swimming, fishing, and other recreation can be a huge economic engine for Iowa communities.

We live in Iowa, where most of our lawmakers take the Patty Judge view: “Iowa is an agricultural state and anyone who doesn’t like it can leave in any of four directions.”

Yesterday the Iowa House approved a bill to relax manure storage regulations for large confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs). All of the House Republicans and two-thirds of the Democrats supported this bad legislation. Details on the bill and the House vote are below.

Mike Sherzan announced by e-mail this afternoon that he will not run for Congress in Iowa’s third district because of “personal health issues.” His full statement is after the jump. Sherzan says his campaign will return all contributions collected since he launched his candidacy last month.

I’m sure everyone in the Bleeding Heartland community joins me in wishing Sherzan a full recovery from his health problems. Any comments about the IA-03 race are welcome in this thread. Other potential Democratic candidates include former State Senator Staci Appel of Warren County and Dr. Andy McGuire, a health insurance company executive who ran for lieutenant governor in the 2006 Democratic primary.

Whoever takes on ten-term incumbent Tom Latham will face an uphill battle in the district. On paper, it looks like a tossup with 158,877 registered Democrats, 165,134 Republicans, and 156,973 no-party voters as of April 2013. However, Latham has routinely outperformed the top of the Republican ticket in his re-election campaigns.  

The FAMiLY Leader’s strange obsession with the Iowa Governor’s Conference on LGBTQ Youth is well-established. Last year, the socially conservative organization led by Bob Vander Plaats was so focused on getting Governor Terry Branstad to drop his affiliation with this conference that they were too “busy” to protest as the governor wined and dined the future Communist ruler of China (world leader in coerced abortions).

The FAMiLY Leader was at it again last week, throwing a fit over the 8th Annual Governor’s Conference on LGBTQ Youth scheduled for April 3. For this post, I don’t want to focus on the “ludicrous” concerns raised by people like Chuck Hurley (“Stop coming after my kids and other people’s kids with evil propaganda”). I don’t want to focus on how Branstad “ducked rather than draw fire from name-callers” with this weak response to the controversy.

Today I’m more interested in sixteen Republican lawmakers who showed their solidarity with the FAMiLY Leader by making an idiotic promise they can’t possibly keep.

Democratic State Senator Steve Sodders announced on Facebook a few minutes ago that he will not run for the U.S. House in Iowa’s first Congressional district next year. His press release is after the jump. Sodders was just re-elected in 2012 to a second four-year term in the Iowa Senate, where he is also is president pro-tem and chairs the Economic Growth Committee. He announced earlier this month that he was considering running for the seat Representative Bruce Braley is vacating to run for U.S. Senate.

So far State Representative Pat Murphy, a former Iowa House speaker who represents part of Dubuque, is the only Democratic candidate in IA-01. Two Republicans have announced their candidacies: Cedar Rapids-based business owner Steve Rathje and Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum. Any comments about the race are welcome in this thread.

Bob Krause, a veterans advocate and former state representative, confirmed by e-mail today that he has filed papers creating a committee to explore a run for Iowa governor in 2014. He plans a formal announcement in the coming weeks.

Krause was the first declared Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate the last time Senator Chuck Grassley was on the ballot. He finished a distant second to Roxanne Conlin in the 2010 primary, receiving just under 13 percent of the vote. Earlier this year, Krause ruled out running for Senator Tom Harkin’s seat but said he was considering a campaign for governor or for Congress next year.

Krause knows Governor Terry Branstad well, because for six years during the 1970s, the two men represented neighboring Iowa House districts (two halves of the same Iowa Senate district).

Also today, Krause called for the resignation of Iowa Veterans Affairs Commission member Dan Gannon, a Branstad appointee who represents the Vietnam Veterans of America on that commission. I’ve posted a press release from Krause after the jump, which explains the background. In an e-mail to Veterans Affairs Commission members and staff, Gannon said that he doesn’t trust Krause or the 501(c)3 charity Krause leads, the Veterans National Recovery Center. That organization advocates for services to assist veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and traumatic brain injury (TBI).

Seventy-six countries around the world have a higher percentage of women in their national legislatures than the United States. Iowa is one of very few states that has never sent a woman to Congress. The open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district is a perfect chance to leave Mississippi in the dust. Yet so far, no women have announced plans to run for the seat Bruce Braley is vacating. Three men are in the race for sure: Pat Murphy, Steve Rathje, and Rod Blum. Steve Sodders is strongly considering it and visited Washington last week to talk with Democrats about the race. UPDATE: Sodders has ruled out running for Congress.

The last time IA-01 was open, four Democratic men and three Republican men sought to replace Jim Nussle. Are we looking at a repeat?

For years, academic researchers have shown that “when women run for office, they perform just as well as men.” But they don’t run for office as often as men do for lots of reasons. A new study suggests that from a young age, women are less likely than men to consider running for office someday (full report here).

Iowa Democratic Party leaders should be working to recruit a top-tier female candidate in IA-01, a Democratic-leaning seat that presents the best opportunity of my lifetime to send a woman to Congress. But that’s not going to happen when party chair Tyler Olson is thinking about running for Congress himself. Republican Party of Iowa leaders should also be looking for a strong woman candidate to capitalize on Democrats’ strategic error. I doubt that “liberating” thought would ever cross the minds of the “Liberty” gang running the Iowa GOP.

Sisters are going to have to do it for ourselves. Whether that’s the “50-50 in 2020” organization co-chaired by former women elected officials and candidates or some informal group of political activists, it’s time to identify and encourage women to step up to the plate in IA-01–before the early declared candidates get a large advantage in fundraising and endorsements.

Iowa Democrats hoping that U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack would come home to challenge Governor Terry Branstad next year will be disappointed by the latest news out of Washington.

Representative Bruce Braley’s campaign for the U.S. Senate has steadily rolled out endorsements this month. Eight labor unions have backed Braley’s Senate bid so far, joined today by Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller and Iowa State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.

Since Braley lacks any competition in the Democratic primary, these endorsements aren’t newsworthy at face value. However, a closer look at the announcements points to five major themes the Braley campaign will highlight over the next 19 months.

UPDATE: Added a sixth theme below.

Yesterday Dubuque-based business owner Rod Blum formally announced his candidacy in the Republican primary to represent Iowa’s first Congressional district. The same day, he received the endorsement of the Liberty Iowa PAC, formed two years ago by supporters of Ron Paul’s presidential campaign. Both announcements are after the jump, along with my first thoughts on how much the Liberty movement could help Blum in the GOP primary.

Representative Steve King told reporters in Des Moines today that the chances he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 are “a little more than 50-50.” He dropped similar hints last month and has indicated to the Sioux City Journal’s Bret Hayworth that he’s leaning toward running as well.

I don’t care how many times King insists that he is carefully analyzing the pros and cons of a U.S. Senate bid. He’s neither dumb enough nor brave enough to leave the safe confines of Iowa’s fourth Congressional district.

Dubuque business owner Rod Blum told the Marshall County Republican Central Committee this week that he plans to enter the GOP primary to represent the open first Congressional district. Blum finished a close second to Ben Lange in the 2012 IA-01 primary. Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje was the first Republican to announce in IA-01. I haven’t heard any news lately about other possible Republican candidates in the first district, like State Representative Walt Rogers or former Secretary of State Paul Pate.

Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer predicted on Sunday that the first Iowa woman elected governor or to Congress will be a Republican. If no Democratic woman steps up in IA-01, I believe Upmeyer will be proven right. I have heard from several independent sources that State Senator Liz Mathis is privately telling Democrats she won’t run for Congress. Senate President Pam Jochum took herself out of the running last month. Former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate so far. State Senator Steve Sodders is talking with potential supporters about the race.

I haven’t heard about any Republican planning to run against four-term Democrat Dave Loebsack in IA-02. For now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not appear worried about holding this district.

According to the Des Moines rumor mill, former State Senator Staci Appel is considering a run for Congress in IA-03. Appel lives in Warren County and served one term in the Iowa Senate before losing to Republican Kent Sorenson in 2010. Mike Sherzan is currently the only declared Democratic challenger to ten-term Republican Tom Latham.

I haven’t heard of any Democrats planning to challenge six-term incumbent Steve King in IA-04. I’m still confident King will not run for the U.S. Senate. But if King does leave the fourth district open, many Republicans are rumored to be thinking about that race, including Upmeyer and State Representative Chip Baltimore.

Any comments about next year’s Congressional races in Iowa are welcome in this thread. A Congressional map is after the jump, along with the latest voter registration numbers in each district and Stuart Rothenberg’s comments on why he does not consider Latham or King vulnerable in 2014.

On Friday the U.S. House approved a bill that would reorganize nearly three dozen federal job training programs into one fund providing job training money to states. Iowa’s four representatives split on party lines.

Yesterday the U.S. House approved a bill seeking to prevent the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services from allowing states to lift work requirements for federal welfare benefits. Republican arguments for the bill echoed false claims from Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.  

Iowa’s largest labor union, AFSCME Iowa Council 61, announced its endorsement of Representative Bruce Braley for U.S. Senate yesterday. A press release from the Braley campaign noted that two other labor unions have previously announced their support: Iowa State Council of Machinists and the Great Plains Laborers’ District Council. As a member of Congress, Braley has a strong voting record on labor rights, as does retiring Senator Tom Harkin.

Endorsements this early in the cycle are another sign that Braley will not face real competition for the Democratic nomination next year. During Iowa Democrats’ last hard-fought statewide primary, the larger labor unions endorsed either Mike Blouin or Chet Culver for governor only a few months before the 2006 primary.

UPDATE: The non-profit, non-partisan advocacy group Council for a Livable World endorsed Braley for Senate on March 14. I’ve added their press release and some background after the jump.

SECOND UPDATE: Service Employees International Union Iowa – Local 199 endorsed Braley for Senate on March 15. A press release from the campaign comments, “SEIU Local 199 represents over 5,000 nurses, school employees, childcare workers, and county employees across the state of Iowa.”

U.S. House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan presented his new federal budget blueprint today. As before, he would end Medicare as a single-payer system for all Americans under age 55, slash spending on programs for the poor such as food stamps and Medicaid, and cut taxes for some, though the details there are fuzzy. He would not cut the defense budget or Social Security. Ryan says his budget would be balanced in 10 years, but he relies on some assumptions that won’t happen, such as repeal of the 2010 health care reform law.

I’ve enclosed Iowa political reaction to the Ryan budget below and will update this post as needed.

State Senator Brad Zaun announced today that he will not run for the open U.S. Senate seat in 2014 (hat tip to WHO-TV’s Dave Price).

During 2011 and 2012, the Iowa Senate was our state’s firewall against the social conservative agenda. The Republican-controlled Iowa House passed a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, sweeping limits on abortion rights (twice), a “stand your ground” bill and a constitutional amendment that would invalidate virtually all restrictions on guns. All of those bills died in the Democratic-controlled state Senate.

Social issues have never been a priority for Iowa House leaders. They blocked a floor vote on a “personhood” bill in 2011 and steered clear of extremist crusades like impeaching Iowa Supreme Court justices and replacing gun permit laws with “constitutional carry.” Still, I expected House Republicans to cover the usual bases during this year’s legislative session.

Instead, almost every high-profile bill on so-called family values failed to win House committee approval and therefore died in the legislature’s first funnel deadline last Friday. That includes some mainstream conservative efforts as well as freak show bills like ending no-fault divorce or barring county recorders from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

Most amazing to me, House Republicans no longer have the votes to pass a constitutional amendment restricting marriage to one man and one woman.  

Senator Chuck Grassley doesn’t plan to endorse a candidate in the Republican primary for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year, he told John Stanton of BuzzFeed.com this week. He has a favored candidate in mind, but plans to keep that view to himself:

Despite his role as the elder statesman of the party, Grassley said he’s not getting seriously involved in the primary: though he has spoken to one candidate. “I said to him, ‘You’re the only one I’m going to encourage to run, I’m not going to tell anyone they shouldn’t run.’ Because everyone I’ve heard talked about is a viable candidate … that’s as far as I’m going to go.

Grassley was wise not to discount Representative Steve King’s prospects; respect from elder statesmen like him and Governor Terry Branstad will make it easier for King to bow out of the Senate race without looking chicken.

I would guess that Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey is the person Grassley has encouraged to run for Senate. Northey is thinking about the race, but I suspect that his past support for a gasoline tax would become a problem in a GOP primary.

Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread. UPDATE: Bret Hayworth of the Sioux City Journal has been covering King for some time. He believes that King is more likely than not to run for Senate.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker confirmed that he is thinking about running for Senate. Good luck with that. The Ron Paul machine is well-organized but probably not large enough to deliver victory in a statewide primary.

Yesterday the U.S. House approved a bill to fund the federal government through the remainder of the current fiscal year. Dave Loebsack (IA-02) was one of 53 House Democrats to vote for the spending bill, along with most of the Republican caucus. Follow me after the jump for details and the latest sleight of hand by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

This is an open thread: all topics welcome.

Jennifer Jacobs’ latest piece speculating on GOP candidates for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat includes a classic comment from former Mitt Romney strategist and marriage equality supporter David Kochel: “When I hear names like Steve Deace and Bob Vander Plaats for Senate, it reminds me of the bar scene in ‘Star Wars.'”

Jacobs also mentioned one name I hadn’t heard before in this context: State Senator Mark Chelgren. He is up for re-election in the Democratic-leaning Ottumwa area next year, so he would have to give up his Iowa Senate seat in order to seek the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.

This week an anonymous group calling itself “Iowa Republicans for Truth” declared war against The Iowa Republican blog and its publisher, Craig Robinson. More details are after the jump. I enjoyed the Iowa .Gif-t Shop’s take on the kerfuffle.

UPDATE: In the comments, Bleeding Heartland user conservative demo mentioned Ed Tibbetts’ piece for the Quad-City Times on the battle brewing inside the Scott County Republican Party. I’ve added excerpts below.  

State Senator Steve Sodders will “take a serious look” at running for the first Congressional district seat Bruce Braley is vacating. Speaking by telephone yesterday, Sodders said he is in the “very exploratory” phase, talking with different groups and individuals. He currently has no deadline for announcing his plans, but he expects to decide sometime before this summer whether to run in next year’s Democratic primary.

Marshall County Deputy Sheriff Sodders was first elected to the Iowa Senate in 2008. He was just re-elected to a four-year term in Senate district 36, covering Marshall and Tama counties and a small area in Black Hawk County. Consequently, he would not need to give up his Senate seat to run for Congress. In addition to serving as Senate president pro-tem, Sodders chairs the Economic Growth Committee. I’ve posted his official bio after the jump.

So far State Representative Pat Murphy is the only declared Democratic candidate in the first Congressional district, and Cedar Rapids businessman Steve Rathje is the only declared Republican.

I continue to believe that Iowa Democrats should nominate a woman for this very winnable seat–preferably someone other than the woman who just voted herself a 25 percent raise. I wish Senate President Pam Jochum had not taken herself out of the running so early.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office indicate that the 20 counties in IA-01 contain 165,428 active registered Democrats, 137,943 Republicans, and 193,674 no-party voters.

UPDATE: Sodders posted on Facebook on March 11, “Headed to Wash DC next week to talk to several groups and individuals about District 1.” At the end of this post I’ve added more recent comments from Sodders.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released its new “Frontline” list of vulnerable U.S. House incumbents going into the 2014 election cycle. Four-term Representative Dave Loebsack is not on the list. The DCCC put Loebsack on the Frontline in early 2012, presumably because of redistricting. Iowa’s new political map removed Linn County from the second Congressional district and added Scott County, among others.

The DCCC did not end up buying television or radio advertising in IA-02 during the 2012 campaign. Despite a significant investment by the National Republican Congressional Committee in the district, Loebsack easily defeated GOP challenger John Archer and even carried Archer’s home base of Scott County.

The Frontline list doesn’t always predict which House races will be competitive. Going into the 2010 election cycle, Representative Leonard Boswell was the only Iowan on the DCCC’s list. That year, the committee ended up spending money to defend both Loebsack in IA-02 and Representative Bruce Braley in IA-01, both of whom were re-elected by narrower margins than Boswell.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has put both Democratic-held districts in Iowa on its long list of targets for 2014. The latest voter registration totals show that there are about 27,500 more registered Democrats than Republicans in IA-01, and nearly 34,000 more Democrats than Republicans in IA-02. No-party voters have a plurality in both Congressional districts.

Conservative talk radio host Steve Deace told Fox News today that he may run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 if Representative Steve King passes on the race. Deace said King is uniquely qualified to “unite the Rand Paul faction and the Mike Huckabee faction of the grassroots activists.” In his opinion, neither Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds nor “anybody connected to Terry Branstad” can unite Iowa Republicans.

Reynolds confirmed on a conference call with reporters today that she will “take a serious look” at the Senate race. According to Branstad’s communications director Tim Albrecht, Reynolds would not run against King in a GOP primary. UPDATE: The National Journal quotes skeptical Iowa Republican insiders on Reynolds as a Senate candidate.

I am still confident that King will opt out of the Senate race. In that case, a far-right candidate would be well positioned to beat Reynolds in a primary, but I’m not sure that Deace is that person. Spin your own IA-Sen scenarios in this thread.

UPDATE: Bruce Braley’s campaign has started taking shots at King already.

Carroll-based journalist Douglas Burns argues that former State Representative Rod Roberts, now the director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals, would be the best candidate Republicans could field against Braley. I don’t think so, although Roberts was a good stalking horse for Branstad in the 2010 gubernatorial primary.

SECOND UPDATE: Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey will “strongly consider” running for Senate, but only if King does not run. His past support for a gasoline tax increase to pay for road work would be a problem for him in a Republican primary. Also, the conservative base may not trust him, since he has no record on most issues not related to agriculture.

I enjoyed the Iowa .Gif-t Shop’s take on Deace as a possible candidate.

Representative Tom Latham (IA-03) announced in an e-mail to supporters this afternoon that he will not seek the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in 2014. I’ve posted his message after the jump. When Latham says, “I cannot in good conscience launch a two-year statewide campaign that will detract from the commitment I made to the people who elected me […],” I think he means, I prefer not to give up an easy job.

Governor Terry Branstad had made clear on several occasions, most recently this past weekend, that he would like Latham to run for Senate. Latham’s decision clears a path for many other Republicans who are reportedly considering the race, including former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, State Senator Brad Zaun, Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds, Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix, and Secretary of State Matt Schultz.

I’m standing by my prediction that Representative Steve King will not leave his safe perch in IA-04 for a statewide campaign he knows he would lose. Some “bold color conservative” is bound to run, though. I suspect Bob Vander Plaats knows that his ship has sailed, but maybe he has one last campaign in him.

Any comments about the IA-Sen race are welcome in this thread. Representative Bruce Braley will surely be relieved to have Latham off the list of potential Republican opponents.

UPDATE: Politico’s James Hohmann tweets, “Iowa Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds is ‘very serious’ about running for Senate, a source tells me.” Imagine what Republicans would say about a Democrat who didn’t finish college running for U.S. Senate. Further updates are after the jump.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack may be thinking about running for Iowa governor again in 2014, according to one of his longtime friends.

UPDATE: Vilsack stopped by the Iowa capitol on February 19 to meet with statehouse Democrats. According to State Representative Marti Anderson, he came to “talk about the looming sequester in DC. and other Food, Farm, and Jobs issues from USDA.”

Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje announced his candidacy  for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district last Friday. Background on Rathje and thoughts about other possible candidates in IA-01 are after the jump. A district map and the latest voter registration numbers in all 20 counties can be found here.

Many Republicans are thinking about running for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat next year, but the field is frozen until Representatives Tom Latham (IA-03) and Steve King (IA-04) make their intentions clear. King has indicated that he needs to battle “elites” like Karl Rove before he can analyze a possible Senate bid. That suggests Latham will be the first to decide whether to seek the Republican nomination.

What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

The Des Moines Register continues to release bits and pieces from the latest Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. After the jump I’ve posted some of the more important findings, other than the IA-Sen numbers, which I discussed in this post. Like the Iowa .Gif-t Shop blog, I found it bizarre that the Register asked respondents whether they’d be “thrilled,” “mildly happy,” or “don’t really care” about the prospect of certain national retailers opening an Iowa store.

The Iowa Democratic establishment continues to consolidate around Representative Bruce Braley for the open U.S. Senate seat. Representative Dave Loebsack (IA-02) posted on his Facebook page this morning,

Bruce, I’m in.

I’m proud to endorse Bruce Braley. We need someone in the U.S. Senate who’ll continue Tom Harkin’s legacy of fighting to strengthen the middle class and speaking out for those who don’t have a voice. I’m pleased to stand with him.

Looking forward to seeing you tonight at the Red, White, and Blue dinner!

We need someone who will continue Harkin’s legacy of speaking some unpopular truths, such as pointing out that a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget “would require massive cuts to Social Security, Medicare and many other crucial programs” the middle class rely on. Sadly, we won’t hear that message from either Braley or Loebsack in the years to come.

UPDATE: Added the Braley for Iowa press release below.

SECOND UPDATE: Former Representative Leonard Boswell chimed in with his endorsement on January 18. I’ve posted it below. He praised Braley as “a tireless advocate for Iowa’s veterans.” That was a strong theme in Braley’s latest re-election campaign.

Governor Terry Branstad says he called Karl Rove this week to urge the new Conservative Victory Project not to get involved in Iowa races.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will not run for the U.S. Senate next year, his spokesman Matt Paul told the Des Moines Register this morning. I don’t know anyone who expected Vilsack to run for the seat Senator Tom Harkin is vacating, but the Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa poll write-up emphasized that Vilsack would be the most “appealing” candidate of eight names Selzer & Co tested with 802 Iowa voters.

For now, Vilsack seems to be enjoying his work in President Barack Obama’s cabinet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run for U.S. Senate if Chuck Grassley retires in 2016, though.

I expect only token opposition to Representative Bruce Braley in next year’s Democratic primary to replace Harkin. Any comments about the Senate race are welcome in this thread.