What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers? This is an open thread.

Representative Steve King’s views about a path to legal residence for undocumented immigrants continue to make national news. Follow me after the jump for more comments and recent reports.

The Democratic primary in the open first Congressional district will be one of Iowa’s most interesting elections next year. In addition to separate posts on major developments in the race, I plan to update Bleeding Heartland readers periodically on how all five Democrats are campaigning. The winner of the primary will go into the general election as the slight favorite given the partisan lean of this D+5 district and the voter registration advantage for Democrats there.

Follow me after the jump for recent news about each of the contenders.

The Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board agreed on August 8 to dismiss a complaint Iowa Democratic Party executive director Troy Price filed in May against newly-appointed State Auditor Mary Mosiman. The complaint alleged that Mosiman improperly used funds from her Story County auditor campaign account for personal expenses. Mosiman admitted using campaign funds to pay for certified public accountant training and travel to Republican political events after she became head of the Iowa Secretary of State’s elections division. She maintained the payments were permissible because she had future political aspirations, even though she was not an elected official or a candidate for office when the funds in question were used. Mosiman is now running for state auditor in 2014.

After the jump I’ve posted a memorandum of understanding between Mosiman and the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board. Both the state auditor and Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board members agreed that Iowa law does not spell out the full range of allowable post-election spending from campaign accounts.  Mosiman agreed to repay the campaign funds to resolve the dispute, while denying wrongdoing. The ethics board agreed to “consider issuing one of more advisory opinions” to “address the lack of clarity in the law that has revealed itself in this matter.”  

State Senator Jack Hatch is spotlighting Governor Terry Branstad’s speeding scandal in the first television commercial of the 2014 Iowa gubernatorial campaign. I’ve posted the “Smokey and the Branstad” video after the jump. It’s apparently running on Des Moines broadcast networks between August 11 and 14, and Hatch for Iowa is seeking donations to keep it on the air longer. To my knowledge, Cedar Rapids Gazette columnist Todd Dorman was the first to put the “Smokey and the Branstad” label on this scandal.

Most political consultants wouldn’t recommend advertising in August before the election year, but this speeding scandal has generated a lot of negative chatter about Branstad, even from conservative editorial boards like the Sioux City Journal, Cedar Rapids Gazette, and Quad-City Times. A lawsuit filed late last week by fired Department of Criminal Investigation agent Larry Hedlund may keep the story in the news well into 2014.

Most candidates launch a television advertising campaign with some kind of biographical spot, but Hatch opted to introduce himself with a broadly-held opinion (“Nobody’s above the law”) instead. The words on screen in the middle of the ad (“Cited: Cronyism, Pressuring Public Officials”) allude to conclusions of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, which published a report last month on the country’s worst governors.

I’ve also posted below State Senator Matt McCoy’s endorsement of Hatch, which he announced over the weekend.

Some intensely competitive elections are coming up in Iowa, and naturally, Bleeding Heartland readers will have different preferences regarding the best Democratic candidate for governor, first Congressional district, or other races. I noticed some problems with comment ratings on this post about the Des Moines City Council at-large election, which pits two well-liked Democrats against each other.

It’s time for another reminder about the rules for rating comments at Bleeding Heartland, so I’ve posted them after the jump. “Zero” ratings can lead to comments being hidden from view and should not be used to signal your disagreement with the commenter. Doing so is ratings abuse. A “2” is sufficient to show that you strongly disagree with the person. If you have applied a 1 or zero rating to a comment based solely on your opinion, please go back to that diary and remove your rating from the comment.  

State Representative Walt Rogers confirmed to the Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier that he is analyzing a bid for the Republican nomination in Iowa’s first Congressional district now that House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has passed on the race. Rogers hopes to decide later this summer whether to run for Congress. After the jump I’ve enclosed background on Rogers and early thoughts on his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate.

I also included a map of Iowa House district 60 and the latest voter registration numbers for the seat Rogers would have to leave open if he runs for Congress in 2014.

Yesterday I heard an ad on a Des Moines radio station criticizing Representative Steve King for taking a “five-week taxpayer-funded vacation instead of working to create jobs.” The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee paid for the ad in IA-04 and 17 other Republican-held House districts. The ad script is in a press release I’ve posted after the jump. This radio campaign is not targeting Representative Tom Latham in IA-03 for whatever reason. (The National Republican Congressional Committee recently added Latham to its incumbent protection program.) King has received so much unflattering media attention over the past two weeks because of his comments about undocumented immigrants that the DCCC may have felt it was the right time to focus on driving up King’s negatives with Iowans.

Meanwhile, during an interview with Sioux City-based KSCJ Radio, King criticized the Obama administration’s decision to close some U.S. embassies this week. Excerpts from his comments are after the jump, along with reaction from IA-04 Democratic candidate Jim Mowrer, who accused King of politicizing national security.

The Koch Brothers-funded group, Americans for Prosperity, is conducting a series of town halls in Iowa attacking Congressman Bruce Braley who is running for senate. They call it the “Big Government Braley” tour. The first two events, yesterday in Fort Dodge, and today in Carroll, featured Congressman Steve King. The third, on Saturday in Marshalltown, will be conducted by Sen. Chuck Grassley.

The meeting today was kicked off by AFP state director Mark Lucas. He said the greatest threat to the United States is the deficit. He also talked about cap and trade and a carbon tax as threats.

Then Lucas turned the mike over to Steve King.

What King said follows: 

Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen has chickened out decided he feels compelled to continue serving in the state legislature rather than run for Congress in the open first district. In e-mails to supporters and House Republican colleagues today, Paulsen said he did not feel “called” to serve in Congress. Speaking to Radio Iowa’s O. Kay Henderson, Paulsen elaborated,

“What in May and early June to some degree seemed like a very obvious and easy decision, as I started to work through it, it just became apparent to me that the task before me is in Des Moines, not Washington, D.C.”

Like most Iowa politics watchers, I had expected Paulsen to run, especially after I learned that his chief executive officer, Doug Struyk, resigned to become a lobbyist. Frankly, I am disappointed by the news. I believe Paulsen would have lost the GOP primary to Rod Blum, who has been campaigning around IA-01 for months and already started making a case against the “career politician” and “compromiser.” I also was looking forward to seeing who would prevail in an Iowa House Republican leadership election.

With Paulsen out, speculation will turn to two-term State Representative Walt Rogers, a rising star in the House GOP caucus. He confirmed earlier this year that he was considering the Congressional race. He would be the only Republican candidate from Waterloo/Cedar Falls, the second-largest metro area in the district. The other declared candidates are Steve Rathje of Cedar Rapids, the largest city in IA-01, and Blum of Dubuque, the third-largest city.

Paulsen said today that he expects to “have a Republican congressman” after next year’s election. The district leans Democratic with a partisan voting index of D+5. According to the latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, IA-01 contains 162,447 active registered Democrats, 136,290 Republicans, and 192,715 no-party voters.

UPDATE: The full text of Paulsen’s e-mail to supporters is after the jump. Also, I forgot about former Cedar Rapids Mayor and Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate, who indicated earlier this year that he was considering the IA-01 race. According to The Iowa Republican’s Kevin Hall, “the belief was he would not run if Paulsen did. However, even with Paulsen officially out of the race, Pate’s interest appears to be cooling.”

Since the day State Senator Kent Sorenson dumped Michele Bachmann for Ron Paul, Iowa politics watchers have speculated that he was paid well to do so. Earlier this year, news emerged of indirect payments totaling $7,500 per month from entities supporting Bachmann to Sorenson while he chaired her presidential campaign in Iowa. Today The Iowa Republican blog’s publisher Craig Robinson posted e-mails and memos detailing a large “payoff” for Sorenson in exchange for publicly endorsing Paul.

I hope these allegations will generate momentum in the Iowa legislature to prohibit lawmakers from being paid by political campaigns. An ethics investigation of Sorenson is pending, but these rules should be written into state law in my opinion. The integrity of the Iowa caucuses is undermined by the perception that presidential candidates can buy state legislators.

I assume that whoever leaked this information to The Iowa Republican is hoping that Sorenson will either resign or lose in a GOP primary to represent Senate district 13 next year. It’s a district Republicans “should” hold, but Sorenson is surely not the best candidate to accomplish that goal. To my knowledge, no Republican has announced plans to challenge Sorenson in a primary. He has passionate defenders in the social conservative wing, thanks to his uncompromising stance on Medicaid abortion funding, his hostility toward an LGBT youth conference, his support for impeaching Iowa Supreme Court justices and bringing back the death penalty, among other issues.

It’s worth noting that Robinson has never been sympathetic to the Ron Paul faction within the Iowa GOP. His website displayed a strong “Rick Santorum” slant in late 2011 and early 2012. Critics have even accused Robinson of taking money in exchange for promoting a certain angle at The Iowa Republican. Still, today’s post on Sorenson’s “payoff” is a must-read.

EMILY’s List, an organization supporting pro-choice women Democratic candidates, gave its formal endorsement to Staci Appel and five other Congressional today. Appel is challenging ten-term GOP Representative Tom Latham in Iowa’s third district. The endorsement indicates that she will receive some financial support from the EMILY’s List PAC. Appel had already received access to the nationwide network of EMILY’s List individual supporters.

I would guess that today’s endorsement means that Appel’s early fundraising has gone well. EMILY’s List put six Congressional candidates “on the list” in May and gave the same designation to six more candidates (including Appel) last month. Just six of those twelve “on the list” candidates received the group’s full endorsement today.

After the jump I’ve posted the press release from EMILY’s List and the latest voter registration numbers district-wide and for the sixteen counties in IA-03. On paper, it’s a highly competitive seat. Latham tends to outperform the top of the Republican ticket, though, making this an uphill battle for any challenger.

I haven’t seen any official announcement or press release, but State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic has launched an Anesa for Iowa campaign website, as well as a fundraising page for a Congressional campaign on ActBlue. As of Friday evening, her Facebook page features a new photo of an Irish-themed “Anesa Kajtazovic for Congress” logo in honor of the Irish fest scheduled for this weekend in Waterloo.

Kajtazovic is the fifth Democrat seeking the nomination in Iowa’s first district, which Bruce Braley is vacating to run for the U.S. Senate. State Representative Pat Murphy was the first to declare, followed by Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, Cedar Rapids attorney Dave O’Brien, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar. 

It’s been a banner week for State Representative Tyler Olson. Not only did the top two Iowa Senate Democrats both rule out running for governor, Olson gained public support from State Senator Bob Dvorsky. He posted on Facebook last night, “I’m not just endorsing Tyler, but the idea of creating a new vision for Iowa that will lead our state into the next 30 years of innovation and prosperity.” Dvorsky’s wife, Sue Dvorsky, preceded Olson as Iowa Democratic Party chair and “enthusiastically” endorsed his candidacy a few weeks ago. Olson also has the backing of State Senator Janet Petersen, with whom he served in the Iowa House, and State Senator Rob Hogg, whom he has known for the last decade, as well as several Iowa House Democrats.

The endorsements for Olson are a bit awkward for State Senator Jack Hatch, who hasn’t secured the public support of any fellow legislators as he explores a gubernatorial campaign.

I understand jumping on board with a candidate you believe in, but at the same time, I feel that a Democratic establishment stampede to any candidate (as happened with Brad Anderson’s secretary of state campaign) is premature when the field isn’t even set. In addition to Olson and Hatch, former State Representative Bob Krause is running for governor, and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald hasn’t ruled out the race. The Iowa Democratic Party would benefit from at least one spirited statewide primary contest next spring, especially since the U.S. Senate race is just a coronation on our side.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. After the jump I’ve posted Olson’s first campaign video, a biographical piece released online last week.  

Iowa Senate President Pam Jochum has decided against running for governor in 2014, she confirmed by telephone yesterday. Although she has been “overwhelmed by encouragement from people” across Iowa, she sad her most important priority is her daughter Sarah. Jochum is the primary caregiver for Sarah, an adult with developmental disabilities, and she decided it would be difficult to balance her daughter’s needs with an “18/7” statewide campaign for governor. Jochum added that she greatly enjoys being president of the Iowa Senate, a position to which she was elected last November.

Similar considerations prompted Jochum to opt out of the first Congressional district race earlier this year. Raising money for a Congressional bid and campaigning across 20 counties would have been almost as time-consuming as running for governor. Jochum is not up for re-election in the Iowa Senate until 2016, and her Dubuque-based district 50 is safe as long as she desires to serve.

Catching up on news from last week, Jake Porter plans a second campaign for Iowa secretary of state on the Libertarian ticket. He received 33,854 votes (about 3 percent of votes cast) as the Libertarian nominee for that office in 2010. Porter’s campaign is on the web here, as well as on Facebook and twitter. I’ve posted his campaign announcement and official bio after the jump. He pledged not to “endorse any political candidate like [current Secretary of State] Matt Schultz did when he supported Rick Santorum for President,” and touted the fact that he is not affiliated with any major political party like Democratic candidate for secretary of state Brad Anderson.

Porter’s bio alludes to experience with political consulting and campaign management. He elaborated by e-mail that he managed Libertarian candidate Eric Cooper’s campaign for Iowa governor in 2010, Bob Barr’s Libertarian presidential campaign in Iowa during the 2008 general election, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson’s presidential campaign in Iowa for part of 2011, when Johnson was running as a Republican.

Governor Terry Branstad’s campaign announced today that it has hired field directors in each of Iowa’s four Congressional districts. I enclose below the press release with background on Matt Leopold, Nic Pottebaum, Kaylee Carnahan, and Jacob Johnson. All four field directors have campaign experience, and all but Carnahan have Iowa campaign experience.

Reading the press release, I was struck by the way the governor’s campaign staff continue to talk about the “Branstad-Reynolds committee” in official communications as well as in less formal settings. The campaign’s registered name is Governor Branstad Committee. Lately Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds has accompanied Branstad to many public events. Traditionally, Iowa’s lieutenant governors have been sent out to handle events the governor could not attend, so that the administration could cover more ground. The “Branstad-Reynolds” team branding effort is one reason some Iowa Democrats suspect that the governor may announce shortly before next year’s filing deadline that he is not running for re-election–clearing a path for Reynolds to step in as the Republican establishment candidate for governor. I expect Branstad to seek a sixth term, barring a serious health problem.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal announced tonight that he will not run for governor in 2014. Gubernatorial candidate Bob Krause tweeted that Gronstal told the audience at the Pottawattamie County annual Democratic fundraiser that his Senate seat is needed to maintain the Democrats’ 26-24 Senate majority. IA-03 Congressional candidate Gabriel De La Cerda also reported Gronstal’s announcement. Gronstal has represented the Council Bluffs area in the Iowa Senate for many years and was just re-elected to another four-year term in 2012. Since he’s not up for re-election in 2014, he could have run for governor without giving up his seat. However, if he became governor a special election would be called in Senate district 8. Republicans hold both of the Iowa House seats in that district.

I am not surprised by Gronstal’s decision. I was more surprised when he said he was seriously considering the race. While I agree he could be a good governor, and other Democrats could be excellent Senate majority leaders, I would be concerned about finding another Democrat who could hol

UPDATE: Gronstal told Radio Iowa’s O.Kay Henderson that he made the decision in the last ten days, adding, “I think Terry Branstad is imminently [eminently] beatable. This is not the same Terry Branstad that was governor back in the ’80s who understood the spirit of compromise, so I think we have a much more ideological governor. I am confident we (Democrats) can find a candidate who will be able to beat him.”

SECOND UPDATE: Gronstal’s official statement is after the jump.

Former Lieutenant Governor and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge is advising former State Senator Swati Dandekar’s campaign for Iowa’s first Congressional district, James Q. Lynch reports for the Cedar Rapids Gazette today. The article also includes comments from Dandekar and Judge on perhaps the biggest obstacle facing Dandekar’s candidacy: the perception that she risked the Iowa Senate majority in 2011.

After the jump I’ve posted excerpts from Lynch’s article and a few thoughts about why accepting a position on the Iowa Utilities Board will likely be a problem for Dandekar in the IA-01 primary.

A competitive Republican primary seems likely in Iowa Senate district 39, an open seat that will be one of the most important statehouse races in 2014. Michael Moore of Washington County has already launched his campaign, and two Republicans in Johnson County are thinking about the race. Royce Phillips is a former mayor and current City Council member in Tiffin. He is also pastor of the Tabernacle Baptist Church in Coralville. At a fundraiser for Johnson County Supervisor John Etheredge earlier this month, Phillips spoke publicly about a possible candidacy in Senate district 39. He confirmed by telephone today that he is familiarizing himself with the district and has had a “positive response” so far. Phillips added that he is more familiar with the House district 77 half of the district (which is in Johnson County) than with House district 78 (all of Keokuk and most of Washington Counties). I’ve posted a district map after the jump. Phillips has been active in local Republican politics for many years. He endorsed Mike Huckabee before the 2008 Iowa caucuses and Rick Santorum during the last election cycle.

Republican Party of Iowa State Central Committee member Bob Anderson has also been mentioned as a possible candidate in Senate district 39. He told me today that he is “analyzing” and “considering it seriously” but did not specify a timetable for announcing a decision. Anderson has also been active in Republican politics for a long time and chairs is the past chair of the Johnson County GOP Central Committee. He is one of the few GOP State Central Committee members who did not publicly endorse a presidential candidate before the 2012 Iowa caucuses.

No Democrat has yet announced plans to run in Senate district 39. State Senator Joe Bolkcom told the Iowa City Press-Citizen’s Adam Sullivan recently, “We’re working on recruitment there now. It’s on our list of likely opportunities to pick up a seat.”

I expect Governor Terry Branstad to seek a sixth term next year, but lately I’ve been wondering what could happen if he announces at the last minute that he’s not running. Could Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds step in right before the filing deadline and use the funds raised by Branstad-Reynolds to finance her own gubernatorial campaign?

The short answer is “probably not.” The longer answer is after the jump.

Representative Steve King’s assertion that there are 100 drug mules for every “DREAMer” who’s a valedictorian continues to reverberate across the country. National television networks and blogs have chewed over the story, and many politicians have condemned King’s statement, including House Speaker John Boehner.

King stands by his comments and claims that the intense criticism proves he has “won the debate” over immigration policy. Yet a new poll of residents in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district suggests that King is out of step even with his own constituents.

Follow me after the jump for details on that poll and a roundup of reaction to King’s words about undocumented immigrants who entered the country as children.

A rematch looms in Iowa House district 95 between Republican Quentin Stanerson and Democrat Kristin Keast. After the previous incumbent, Democratic State Representative Nate Willems, opted to run for Iowa Senate district 48, Stanerson defeated Keast in district 95 by just 200 votes (barely more than 1 percent of votes cast). That was the sixth-closest result in the 100 Iowa House races. Republicans Chris Hagenow, Tedd Gassman, Larry Sheets, and Sandy Salmon and Democrat Daniel Lundby won each of their races by fewer than 200 votes.

The Iowa House Democrats announced on Tuesday that Keast will run again in House district 95. After the jump I’ve posted a district map, the latest voter registration numbers, and background on Keast and Stanerson. To my knowledge, this was the only 2012 Iowa election in which both major-party nominees were teachers.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I consider House district 95 one of about a dozen races that will determine control of the Iowa House in 2015 and 2016.

Former State Senator Swati Dandekar launched her Congressional campaign yesterday in Marion, saying she is a “testament that the American dream is alive.” I’ve posted her official bio and news release after the jump; her campaign is online at Swati Dandekar for Congress. James Q. Lynch reported on yesterday’s event, where Dandekar emphasized her commitment to education and helping to create “jobs that pay living wages.”

Dandekar won multiple elections in swing Iowa legislative districts. While her moderate image may have crossover appeal, getting through the Democratic primary will be a major challenge. Dandekar said yesterday that she was encouraged by conversations with voters across IA-01. But key factions in the Democratic base resent aspects of her legislative record and the fact that she put the Iowa Senate majority at risk by accepting a position on the Iowa Utilities Board in 2011. Furthermore, the Democratic primary competition in IA-01 includes Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, a onetime Republican who will draw support from Linn County moderates.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread.

Abby Finkenauer announced on Facebook Monday that she was “thrilled” to be endorsed by the political arm of Iowa’s largest labor union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. Finkenauer is one of three Democrats running in Dubuque-based Iowa House district 99, which Pat Murphy is vacating to run for Congress. She is a former page to Murphy when he was Iowa House speaker and has most recently clerked for State Representative Todd Taylor. Former State Representative Tom Jochum is backing Finkenauer’s candidacy too.

The AFSCME Iowa Council 61 PEOPLE Committee endorsed Murphy and several other Congressional candidates Monday, but I couldn’t find anything on their website about Finkenauer’s race. AFSCME staff confirmed by telephone this morning that the PEOPLE committee is backing Finkenauer but would not provide any statement on the endorsement or any comment on whether the state’s largest labor union plans to get involved in any other Democratic primaries in legislative districts. Finkenauer commented in her Facebook post, “I know that they do not normally endorse in State House primaries, so I am beyond honored to have their support and encouragement as I continue to work to be the best Democratic candidate for Iowa House District 99 […].”

I understand taking sides in a primary when one candidate is clearly best poised to win the general election or advocate for a group’s issues. But House district 99 is a safe seat for any Democrat, and rival candidates Steve Drahozal and Greg Simpson sound equally committed to progressive values. If AFSCME isn’t even willing to issue a statement explaining its preference for Finkenauer, maybe the union would do better to stay out of primaries.

UPDATE: AFSCME provided a statement via e-mail, which I have added after the jump.

This week EMILY’s List gave a boost to former State Senator Staci Appel and several other “promising” Congressional candidates. Being “on the list” of the most prominent nationwide organization dedicated to electing pro-choice Democratic women is one step below a formal endorsement, which would involve direct funding from EMILY’s List PAC. But it means that Appel will have access to a large group of potential donors. EMILY’s List claims more than two million supporters in its “community,” which I assume means people who receive e-mails or printed communications.

Strong fundraising numbers during the third quarter will be critical for Appel as she seeks support from other groups that get involved in Congressional races around the country. Incumbent Representative Tom Latham goes into the race with a big head start financially and will be able to raise huge amounts through his Appropriations subcommittee chairmanship and friendship with House Speaker John Boehner.

The other Democratic candidate in IA-03, Gabriel De La Cerda, will not be able to compete with Appel in fundraising. To underscore that he will be running a different kind of Congressional campaign, De La Cerda held a press conference in Des Moines yesterday to roll out an endorsement from Wilbur Wilson, “a retiree from Bridgestone Firestone AG factory and a hard working Iowan who epitomizes the voices who go unheard in the halls of Washington DC.”

 Representative Steve King (R – IA4) is no stranger to nationwide controversy over his comments towards immigration.  Having compared immigrants as unwanted dogs sleeping in the corner, he has emerged as the far right’s spokesperson for immigration reform talks in Congress.

Roll Call’s Abby Livingston published a piece today on “The 7 Most Dysfunctional State Parties.” Lo and behold, our own Republican Party of Iowa was there along the state GOP operations in Minnesota, Alaska, and Nevada, and state Democratic parties in Alabama, New Jersey, and Georgia.

The Daily Kos Elections team has been compiling 2012 presidential election results by state legislative district as well as by Congressional district, state by state. Last week the Iowa numbers were added to the database. I took a first stab at previewing the battle for control of the Iowa Senate next year, using data including the raw vote totals and percentages for President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in each district.

The Daily Kos database includes Obama and Romney vote totals and percentages for each Iowa House district here. After the jump I’ve incorporated that information and other factors to predict which Iowa House districts will be competitive in 2014. Writing this post has been challenging, because every election cycle brings surprises, and many more seats in the lower chamber will be in play. Unlike the Iowa Senate, where only half of the 50 members are on the ballot in each general election, all 100 Iowa House members are on ballot in every even-numbered year. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the lower chamber.

Quinnipiac University released more results from its latest Iowa poll yesterday. I’ve posted some thoughts below regarding the responses on next year’s U.S. Senate race, the 2016 presidential election, and marriage equality in Iowa.

The elections arm of Iowa’s largest labor union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, announced five endorsements for the 2014 elections today. I’ve posted the whole statement from the AFSCME Iowa Council 61 PEOPLE Committee after the jump. The biggest news is AFSCME coming out early for former Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy in IA-01. Two other Democrats are already campaigning for that open seat, probably to be joined soon by State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic and former State Senator Swati Dandekar.

In IA-03, AFSCME will back former State Senator Staci Appel, who voted for a number of pro-labor bills during her four years in the legislature. Gabriel De La Cerda is also running in the Democratic primary and was an Iowa political coordinator for the United Steel Workers Union during the 2012 general election campaign. No one will be surprised to see AFSCME supporting four-term incumbent Dave Loebsack in IA-02 or Jim Mowrer in IA-04, where no other Democrat is likely to take on Steve King.

AFSCME hasn’t endorsed a Democratic challenger to Governor Terry Branstad yet. The only statewide candidate named in today’s release is Brad Anderson for Iowa secretary of state. He has the backing of most of Iowa’s Democratic establishment and may not face any competition in the primary, although former Secretary of State Michael Mauro hasn’t ruled out a comeback attempt.

Emily Cahn reported for Roll Call last night that the National Republican Congressional Committee will add ten-term Representative Tom Latham to its “Patriot” program for vulnerable incumbents today. Latham is among nine new “Patriots,” bringing to 20 the number of House GOP members the NRCC will focus on protecting during next year’s campaign. In 2012, the NRCC spent money defending both Latham in IA-03 against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell and Representative Steve King in IA-04 against challenger Christie Vilsack.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has indicated that Latham will be one of its targets next year. It has already paid for some robocalls, online ads and a paid twitter campaign in IA-03 since last December. Democrats need a net gain of at least 17 seats to win back control of the U.S. House in 2014. Most analysts consider that an uphill battle.

Latham has a big financial advantage over his two declared challengers, former State Senator Staci Appel and Gabriel De La Cerda. Many Democrats believe Appel can raise enough money to run a competitive race against Latham. She has already hired consultants to help craft a campaign message. De La Cerda described his “work boots clocking in” approach on the Fallon Forum webcast last week.

Governor Terry Branstad got good news and bad news from the latest Quinnipiac statewide poll, released today. The survey of 1,256 registered Iowa voters between July 15 and 17 found that Branstad is in positive territory with Iowans: 51 percent approve of his work as governor, while just 33 percent disapprove. Moreover, 50 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of Branstad, while 37 percent view him unfavorably. Another good sign for the incumbent: 67 percent were either very or somewhat satisfied with “the way things are going in Iowa today”; just 31 percent said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied.

On the downside, just 43 percent of respondents said Branstad deserves to be re-elected; 46 percent said he does not. About 54 percent said the governor “has been in office long enough,” while 37 percent said he should seek another term.

No one’s going to panic at Terrace Hill over this poll. Thinking abstractly that Branstad should retire is different from choosing to vote for someone else. Clearly many people in that “long enough” group like Branstad and think he’s doing a decent job. I doubt those people would vote for a challenger unless they felt that Branstad was physically unable to serve for another four years.

The potential Democratic candidates for governor are mostly unknown to Iowa voters. About 77 percent of Quinnipiac’s respondents haven’t heard enough about Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal to form an opinion, 85 percent said the same about State Senator Jack Hatch, and 92 percent said the same about State Representative Tyler Olson.

Full results from the Quinnipiac poll including questionnaire and cross-tabs can be viewed here (pdf). Olson’s campaign was quick to send out an e-mail blast touting the poll as proof that Iowans agree it’s “time for a new start in the Governor’s office.” I posted that message after the jump. I haven’t seen any comment from the Branstad campaign about the new poll, but I also enclosed below a statement released today touting the governor’s job creation efforts.

The Daily Kos Elections team has been compiling 2012 presidential election results by state legislative district as well as by Congressional district. Yesterday the Iowa numbers were added to the database. You can view Google documents with raw vote totals and percentages for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney by Iowa Congressional district here, by Iowa Senate district here, and by Iowa House district here.

Looking closely at the presidential vote in the legislative districts provides some insight about where the competitive Iowa statehouse races might be next year. After the jump I’ve highlighted some key data points related to the Iowa Senate races. Later I will post a separate diary with first thoughts about the Iowa House districts.

Catching up on news from the weekend, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey held his seventh annual “BBQ bash” at the State Fairgrounds in Des Moines on July 13. Speaking to the crowd, Northey confirmed that he will seek a third term in 2014 and said he had raised at least $100,000 for his re-election campaign at the event. Ever since Northey ruled out running for the U.S. Senate in early May, it’s been clear that he would go for another four years in the job he loves.

I’ve been disappointed in Northey as secretary of agriculture. He never followed through on the farmland protection initiative he announced in 2008, even though Iowa continues to lose some of the world’s most productive agricultural land at an alarming rate. He has insisted on a solely voluntary approach to reducing nutrient pollution in Iowa waterways despite ample evidence that approach will fail. Record nitrate levels have been reported this spring and summer in major Iowa rivers, and the Des Moines Water Works is facing huge extra costs to make water drinkable for 15 percent of Iowa’s population. Not only is Northey not part of the solution, he’s digging in his heels to perpetuate the problem.

Any comments about next year’s campaign for secretary of agriculture are welcome in this thread. I haven’t heard yet of any Democrats planning to challenge Northey. Dusky Terry, who narrowly lost the Democratic primary for this office in 2006, could be a credible candidate. He is currently mayor of Earlham,  a small town in Dallas County.  

Yesterday was the deadline for Congressional candidates to submit second-quarter financial reports to the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from the reports in Iowa’s four U.S. House districts are after the jump.

Bleeding Heartland will cover the U.S. Senate candidates’ financial reports in a separate post.

Speaking of the Federal Election Commission, did you know that Republican commissioners are trying to make it more difficult for professional staff to report campaign finance violations to federal prosecutors? Republicans are all about “law and order” except when laws inconvenience big-money interests.

State Senator Joni Ernst made her U.S Senate campaign official last week by bringing her Joni for Iowa website live and posting several slogans on a campaign Facebook page. She plans several public events around Iowa later this week, beginning at the Montgomery County courthouse in Red Oak.

Ernst is the fifth candidate in the Republican field, after Matt Whitaker, David Young, Sam Clovis, and Paul Lunde–or the sixth if you count Mark Jacobs, who has formed an exploratory committee but not announced his candidacy. Lots of links and early thoughts about her campaign are after the jump.

JULY 17 UPDATE: Adding news from Ernst’s campaign kickoff events below.

Dave O’Brien launched his campaign for the open seat in Iowa’s first Congressional district this week. Speaking in Cedar Rapids on Wednesday, O’Brien said he’s “sick and tired of playing defense” and ready to “go the on offensive with an aggressive and progressive policy agenda.” He called for policies oriented toward building the middle class and improving our infrastructure.

O’Brien’s campaign is on the web, Facebook, and Twitter. I’ve posted his campaign announcement and official bio after the jump. He emphasizes that he’s a “lifelong progressive Democrat”–an unspoken contrast with Cedar Rapids City Council member Monica Vernon, who was a Republican until 2009, and former State Senator Swati Dandekar, long known as one of the more conservative Democrats in the Iowa legislature. Vernon kicked off her Congressional campaign last month, and Dandekar appears likely to announce later this summer. Iowa House Speaker Pat Murphy has been running for months, and State Representative Anesa Kajtazovic recently formed an exploratory committee.

Via John Deeth’s blog I saw that Republican Michael Moore has announced his candidacy in Iowa Senate district 39, a swing seat being vacated by Senator Sandy Greiner.

I had expected GOP State Representative Jarad Klein to step up for this race, but he quickly took himself out of contention. You can’t blame him for wanting to stay where he’s safe and warm. Iowa House district 78, which Klein currently represents, has a Republican voter registration advantage of more than 2,000, while Senate district 39 contains 13,342 registered Democrats, 13,341 Republicans, and 16,194 no-party voters.

Moore has a long record of civic involvement in Washington County. I’ve posted his official bio and first press release after the jump. His campaign is on the web here. I wouldn’t be surprised if some Republican from the party’s “Liberty” wing ends up competing against Moore in the June 2014 primary.

Public Policy Polling has a new poll out on the Iowa governor and U.S. Senate races. Click here for Tom Jensen’s summary and here (pdf) for full results with questionnaire and cross-tabs. PPP surveyed 668 registered Iowa voters between July 5 and 7, producing a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

Highlights: both President Barack Obama (46/50) and Governor Terry Branstad (45/46) are slightly underwater on approval ratings. However, Branstad has double-digit leads over Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, State Senator Jack Hatch, and State Representative Tyler Olson. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds is much less known than Branstad and is tied with or barely ahead of the Democratic candidates in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups.

In the Senate race, Democratic Representative Bruce Braley has higher name recognition than any of the Republicans and is more liked than disliked by Iowans who have an opinion about him (34 favorable/24 unfavorable). In head to head match-ups, he leads Matt Whitaker by 9 points, Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs by 12 points, and David Young by 13 points.

Any relevant comments are welcome in this thread. I wouldn’t read too much into horse race polling 16 months before the election, especially since none of the Senate candidates are particularly well-known, nor are the Democrats running for governor. Braley polls about the same against any of the Republicans now, but as the campaign progresses I believe it will become apparent that certain GOP candidates have more upside than Clovis, for example.  

The typical division of labor in campaigns nowadays is for the candidate to stay mostly positive when communicating with voters, while political parties or outside groups do the hatchet work on opponents. That pattern is already developing in the race for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat. Democratic candidate Bruce Braley is touting his record and his stands on the issues as a way to get his name out and identify supporters. Meanwhile, the Iowa Democratic Party has taken a few shots at candidates seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

If future salvos look anything like the website the Iowa Democratic Party created to mock David Young, Braley might be better off without their help.