Iowa primary elections are coming up next Tuesday, so it’s time for another Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest. A dozen questions are after the jump. There are so many competitive Iowa House and Senate primaries that it was difficult for me to choose. I tried to achieve some geographical balance and cover different types of primaries (open-seat races vs. challenges to incumbents, safe seats for one party vs. swing districts).

To enter the contest, post your predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am 6 pm on June 5. Predictions submitted by e-mail will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.

No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights. This isn’t like “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether or not they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question.

Preliminary results from today’s Texas primary indicate that Mitt Romney now has enough delegates to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. Only two months ago, it seemed plausible that Romney might not reach the 1,144 delegate threshold until later this summer.

May 24 was the deadline for Iowa Congressional campaign committees to file “pre-primary” financial reports with the Federal Election Commission. Highlights from those reports are after the jump.

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign launched two new television commercials this week in Iowa and six other swing states. That makes seven different television ads the president’s team has aired in Iowa during the past two months. The extent of the advertising here, along with yet another presidential visit to Iowa yesterday, signal that Obama campaign managers do not believe their boss has a comfortable lead on Mitt Romney in this state.

The latest Obama commercials focus on Medicare and policies to help veterans. Videos and transcripts are after the jump.

In a little-noticed vote last week, Democrats Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) joined Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) in backing language to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline as part of a major transportation bill.

President Barack Obama visits Newton today to talk about clean energy initiatives. Later, he is headlining a large campaign rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines. News clips and comments from members of Iowa’s Congressional delegation are after the jump. I’ll update later with news from the rally.

Any comments about energy policy or the presidential race are welcome in this thread. Obama’s campaign rolled out two more television commercials in Iowa this week, which Bleeding Heartland will discuss tomorrow.

Karl Rove’s super-PAC Crossroads GPS launched another television commercial slamming President Barack Obama yesterday, less than a week after its last ad hit tv screens in Iowa and nine other swing states. “Basketball” targets women who initially supported Obama for president but are discouraged about the economy. The video and transcript are after the jump.

What’s going on with Brad Zaun? This month he’s stuck his nose into two Republican primaries that should be of little concern to a state senator from the Des Moines suburbs.

Republican nominee in waiting Mitt Romney went up on the air yesterday with his first general election television commercial in Iowa. The video and transcript are after the jump.  

Some bad public policy ideas take hold because decision-makers become convinced they will work. Other times, bad ideas gain momentum because politicians who should know better are too scared or lazy to make the case against them.

In what looks like a textbook example of the second scenario, all three Democrats representing Iowa in the U.S. House are now on record supporting some form of constitutional amendment to require a balanced federal budget.

Not put off by picking the wrong candidates in two Iowa Republican primaries in 2010, the National Republican Congressional Committee has elevated Ben Lange to “contender” status in Iowa’s first district, while taking a neutral posture in the second district primary.

Crossroads GPS, the super-PAC headed by Republican strategist Karl Rove, is going up on the air today in Iowa and nine other states as part of a $25 million advertising campaign over the next month. The 60-second negative spot about President Barack Obama is after the jump, along with an annotated transcript.

The U.S. House approved the Republican version of a bill reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act yesterday. Iowa’s representatives split along party lines, as did most of the House members.

Speaking in Des Moines this afternoon, Mitt Romney promised to lead the country “out of this debt and spending inferno” by reducing federal government spending from 24.3 percent of the country’s gross domestic product to 20 percent of GDP within four years. Romney would address what he called a “prairie fire of debt” by moving some federal programs to the state level or the private sector, repealing “Obamacare,” reforming Medicare and Social Security, and reducing “redundancy and waste” in government programs.

I’ve posted the full prepared text of Romney’s remarks after the jump, along with a few comments.

The word “devastating” is overused in political commentary, but I can’t think of a better way to describe the television commercial President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign rolled out today. The fifth commercial the president’s team has run in Iowa since the beginning of April is in my opinion the most effective by far. (The previous ads claimed Republican Mitt Romney “stood with Big Oil,” accused Romney of shipping jobs overseas and maintaining a Swiss bank account, put a positive spin on Obama’s record, and highlighted the unpopular decision to bail out the auto industry.)

The new spot is two minutes long and features workers who lost their jobs after Bain Capital took over GST Steel in Kansas City. The video and transcript are after the jump. UPDATE: Added a new web video from the Romney campaign and two new anti-Obama commercials the American Future Fund is running on cable television in several swing states.

President Barack Obama talks about intervening to save the U.S. auto industry in his re-election campaign’s latest television commercial, now on the air in Ohio and Iowa. I’ve posted the video and transcript of the 30-second spot below.

In an interview with ABC News today, President Barack Obama confirmed that he thinks same-sex couples “should be able to get married.”

UPDATE: Added more Iowa political reaction below.

Republican Congressional candidate Ben Lange launched his campaign’s first radio commercial yesterday. In the 60-second ad, Lange makes a broad statement about “restoring the generational compact.”

Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa poll paints a pretty picture for President Barack Obama going into the general election campaign.

Republican Congressional candidate John Archer is up on cable television with a new commercial promoting his jobs plan. Follow me after the jump for the video, transcript, and analysis.

This rare late-night post was inspired by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum’s endorsement of Mitt Romney for president tonight. The full text of Santorum’s e-mail to supporters is after the jump. It went out at approximately 10 pm central daylight time. He alludes to a long one-on-one meeting and “candid” conversation with Romney on May 4. In a post-script, Santorum promises a “big announcement” soon and says he will ask supporters “to once again join forces with me to keep up the fight, together.” I assume he will be an active surrogate for Republican candidates and conservative causes during the general election campaign.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread. Last week Jamie Johnson, a Santorum supporter recently elected to the Iowa GOP’s State Central Committee, told a Washington journalist and an Iowa talk radio audience that he will not assist Romney’s campaign.

President Barack Obama’s campaign launched a new television commercial today in nine swing states, including Iowa. The 60-second spot and annotated transcript are after the jump. This commercial focuses on how the president dealt with the challenges facing him when he took office. Unlike the Obama campaign’s last tv ad, this one does not mention his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney.

Ron Paul finished third in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, but his campaign’s superior organization elected more delegates to county and district conventions than that of any other presidential candidate. Two weeks ago, Paul supporters won six of 16 elected positions on the Iowa GOP’s State Central Committee. On May 5, Paul supporters secured most of Iowa’s at-large delegate slots for the Republican National Convention. Details are after the jump.

For the second month in a row, registered Republicans in Iowa slightly outnumber registered Democrats. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf) show 669,966 active no-party voters statewide, 608,096 active Republicans, and 599,225 active Democrats. Follow me after the jump for the latest active voter registration numbers in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district.

Any comments about the 2012 elections in Iowa are welcome in this thread.

Republican Congressional candidate Dan Dolan launched his first television commercial yesterday, a little more than a week after his primary rival John Archer went up on the air. The video and transcript are after the jump. Up to now, Dolan has spread his message primarily through personal appearances around the district and direct mail.

A more extensive news roundup on the Iowa second Congressional district campaign is in progress. Any comments about that race are welcome in this thread. William Smith reported for The Hawk Eye that delegates to the second district Democratic convention on April 28 were solidly behind three-term incumbent Dave Loebsack. I have not been able to confirm whether his primary challenger, State Senator Joe Seng, attended the convention as well.

My Newt Gingrich campaign deathwatch thread was about a year ahead of its time, but Gingrich finally suspended his presidential campaign this afternoon.  

Matt Strawn stepped down early from his job as chair of the Republican Party of Iowa, but he will be immersed in this November’s down-ticket elections as Iowa chair of the 527 group GOPAC.

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign is launching a new television commercial today in Iowa, Virginia, and Ohio. The spot responds to a negative ad by the 501(c)4 group Americans for Prosperity, pivoting to an attack on future Republican nominee Mitt Romney. After the jump I’ve posted video clips and transcripts of those commercials and the latest anti-Obama ad from the 501(c)4 group American Future Fund.

First district Congressional candidate Rod Blum rolled out endorsements today from two Republicans who ran in the 2010 primary to represent IA-01. Will Johnson and Mike LaCoste cited Blum’s business experience and record of accomplishments in a press release I’ve posted after the jump. Those are major themes in the case Blum has been making against primary rival Ben Lange. LaCoste also echoed Blum’s appeal to stop sending attorneys and career politicians to Congress.

Lange easily won the 2010 nomination with more than twice as many votes as Johnson, his nearest competitor (pdf). LaCoste dropped out of that race a few weeks before the primary.

Any comments about the IA-01 campaign are welcome in this thread. Bleeding Heartland covered Lange’s endorsers here and here. Lange leads Blum in fundraising, though Democratic incumbent Bruce Braley has a larger campaign war chest than either of his GOP opponents. A detailed post on Braley’s case for re-election is in progress.

UPDATE: On April 30 the Liberty Iowa political action committee endorsed Blum. I’ve added the press release below. The Liberty Iowa PAC’s executive director, Adil Khan, worked for Ron Paul’s presidential campaign in Iowa and North Dakota.

Republican candidate John Archer has launched his second television commercial across Iowa’s new Congressional district. Follow me after the jump for the video and transcript.

Archer’s first television commercial ran for one night only on January 3. Last month his campaign ran a radio ad district-wide with a focus on gasoline prices and energy policy. Dan Dolan, the other Republican candidate in IA-02, has not placed any radio or television commercials but has spent a considerable amount on direct mail.

Is Mitt Romney destined to become the presidential nominee least liked by his own party’s activists? Yesterday’s elections to the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central Committee provided another clue that the answer is yes.

Iowa’s three representatives on the Republican National Committee were denied entry to a reception with Mitt Romney today after they refused to sign a “delegate pledge form.”

Federal income taxes are due today for most Americans, unless you’ve filed for an extension like Mitt Romney. (What was he thinking?)

This thread is for any comments related to tax policy at any level of government. Follow me after the jump for links to news, facts and figures about taxes.

UPDATE: Added statements from Representatives Steve King, Dave Loebsack, and Leonard Boswell below. Loebsack and Boswell reference “equal pay day” rather than “tax day.”

While many Americans dread tax day, April 15 holds a silver lining for political junkies: the chance to read the latest federal campaign finance reports. Follow me after the jump for details on the money raised and spent by Iowa’s five U.S. House incumbents and five challengers between January 1 and March 31. Note: at this writing, Dave Loebsack’s primary challenger Joe Seng had not filed a quarterly report with the Federal Election Commission. I will update this post if one appears. He may not have raised enough money yet to trigger reporting requirements.

Click here for the latest voter registration numbers in Iowa’s four new Congressional districts.

Some people with big megaphones in the Iowa Republican world are still not sold on Mitt Romney for president.  

I thought Governor Chet Culver was late to the party when he endorsed Barack Obama a month after the 2008 Iowa caucuses. At that time it was still unclear who would prevail in the Democratic primaries. In contrast, there’s no suspense left in this year’s GOP nominating process. Governor Terry Branstad finally declared today that Republicans should “coalesce around one candidate.”

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum is holding a press conference this afternoon to announce that he is ending his presidential campaign.

Cedar Rapids city officials received good news on two fronts this week: the Federal Emergency Management Agency approved $13.8 million to cover flood damage to the city’s hydroelectric plant in 2008, and the Iowa legislature approved a bill to help local governments fund flood mitigation efforts.

Iowa Republican leaders were thrilled to learn this week that active registered Republicans outnumber active registered Democrats in this state for the first time since 2006. The Secretary of State’s office is working with county auditors on voter list maintenance. Voters whose addresses cannot be confirmed are being moved off the active lists, and in many counties, more Democrats than Republicans are being shifted to “inactive” status. Inactive voters are still eligible to vote in Iowa, but they must show ID at the polling station in order to vote on election day.

The Republican voter registration edge is likely to grow, because there are many more competitive GOP than Democratic primaries for the Iowa House and Senate. Republicans also have competitive primaries in two of the four Congressional districts, whereas Democrats have two candidates only in IA-02. On June 5, a significant number of Democrats and no-party voters will switch to the GOP in order to vote in a primary.

After the jump I’ve posted updated active voter registration numbers for Democrats, Republicans, and no-party voters in all 99 Iowa counties, grouped by Congressional district. The data come from this page on the Iowa Secretary of State website (pdf), except that I placed Wayne County in IA-02 where it belongs, rather than in IA-03. (UPDATE: That error has been corrected on the official site.) In some counties, the numbers are barely changed from last month’s figures. Other county auditors have taken many more people off the active voter rolls.  

Former Senator Rick Santorum has indicated that he’ll stay in the presidential race at least until the Pennsylvania primary later this month, but tonight could be the de facto end of his candidacy. Early returns from Maryland show Mitt Romney above 50 percent of the vote and Santorum below 30 percent. Wisconsin should be a closer contest, but recent opinion polls indicate that Romney is the likely winner.

President Barack Obama targeted Romney by name in a speech to Associated Press writers and editors today. Click here for the full transcript.

I’ll update this post later with more results from Maryland and Wisconsin. Any comments about the presidential campaign are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Santorum conceded early, speaking on television less than a half-hour after Wisconsin polls closed. I’m surprised, because unofficial results indicate that Romney didn’t win by much there: 42 percent for the front-runner, 38 percent for Santorum, 12 percent for Ron Paul, and 6 percent for Newt Gingrich. Maryland was a blowout, as expected: 49 percent for Romney, 29 percent for Santorum, 11 percent for Gingrich, 10 percent for Paul. Romney received 70 percent of the vote among roughly 4,000 Republicans who voted in Washington, DC. Santorum wasn’t on the ballot there. Paul received 12 percent and Gingrich 11 percent.

Excerpts from last night’s speeches by Santorum and Romney are after the jump.  

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign accuses Republican front-runner Mitt Romney of standing with Big Oil in a new television commercial running in Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. The video and transcript of the Obama campaign’s second ad in Iowa are after the jump. It’s a direct response to an anti-Obama spot about high gasoline prices, which is now running in Iowa and other swing states.

The Obama campaign’s first television commercial in Iowa and other swing states focused on energy policy and criticized the “secretive oil billionaires attacking President Obama.”