Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee announced on his Fox show last night that he will not be a candidate for president in 2012. I doubt many people were surprised, because Huckabee had done little to lay the groundwork for a campaign. Shortly after Huckabee visited Iowa on a book tour earlier this year, his 2008 state campaign manager Eric Woolson signed on with former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Several other influential Huckabee backers from the last go-around are committed to other candidates as well, including State Senator Kent Sorenson and Wes Enos (now backing Representative Michele Bachmann) and former leaders of the Iowa Family Policy Center (supporting Judge Roy Moore).

It’s anyone’s guess who will benefit most from Huckabee’s absence. Every poll of Iowa Republican caucus-goers I’ve seen this year has put Huckabee in the lead. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney typically places second in those surveys, but he has signaled that he won’t campaign hard in Iowa this year. Judging from how other potential Republican presidential candidates reacted to yesterday’s news, Huckabee’s endorsement will be highly prized.

This story caught my eye: former Governor Chet Culver is co-chairing the National Popular Vote campaign, which seeks to ensure that the winner of the presidential election is the candidate who receives the most popular votes. Since a U.S. constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college would never be ratified by enough states, the National Popular Vote campaign is seeking to prevent a repeat of the 2000 presidential election.

I was surprised to see Culver on board. When an Iowa Senate committee approved legislation in 2009 to assign Iowa’s electors to the winner of the nationwide popular vote (if enough other states approved the same reform), Culver spoke out against the bill. He warned, “If we require our Electoral College votes to be cast to the winner of the national popular vote, we lose our status as a battleground state.” Then Secretary of State Michael Mauro also opposed the bill, saying, “Under this proposal, it is hard to foresee Iowa maintaining its dominant role and expect candidates to spend their final hours campaigning in our state when they will be focused on capturing the popular vote in much larger states.” Todd Dorman views the national popular vote campaign as an “end-around” the normal constitutional amendment process, but I support the getting rid of the electoral college by the only practical means available. The president should be the person who receives the most votes.

May is Bike to Work Month, and the Iowa Bicycle Coalition has lots of resources to support recreational or commuter bicyclists. The Urban Country Bicycle blog posted about a study that showed the average worker in this country works 500 hours a year (about two hours per working day) just to pay for their cars.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: Not surprisingly, Huckabee’s Fox News contract played a big part in his decision not to run for president.

Governor Terry Branstad used his weekly press conference on May 16 to urge Republicans candidates to compete in Iowa:

“This is probably going to be the most wide-open, competitive race we’ve ever had for the Iowa caucuses,” Branstad said. “This is a state where a candidate – with hard work and retail politics, going to all 99 counties and meeting with people and answering the questions – this is a state where you can effectively launch a campaign. And it’s not too late.” […]

Branstad publicly took issue with [former New Hampshire GOP Chair Fergus] Cullen’s editorial, which said, “Iowa Republicans have marginalized themselves to the point where competing in Iowa has become optional.”

“Mr. Cullen couldn’t be further from the facts,” Branstad said. “The truth is that Iowa is a full-spectrum state. I think the primary election that I won last year proves that. I would also point out that the front-runner, Mike Huckabee, made a decision over the weekend, which is momentous. He is not running this time, which means he got the largest block of votes in the Iowa caucuses four years ago and those are up for grabs.”

Cullen’s editorial is here; I posted excerpts here.

Branstad’s close associate Doug Gross, who co-chaired Mitt Romney’s 2008 campaign in Iowa, has long warned that the caucuses are not hospitable to moderate candidates. In November 2008, he said, “[W]e’ve gone so far to the social right in terms of particularly caucus attendees that unless you can meet certain litmus tests, if you will, you have a very difficult time competing in Iowa.” But Gross had a very different message today:

I think this is a different year because largely with Huckabee getting out, you’ll have multiple social conservatives in the race. As a result of that, they’ll divide up a lot of the Caucus vote and there’ll be an opportunity for a mainstream Republican to come in and do surprisingly well here. If I were Mitt Romney and I wanted to be the nominee for president, I’d play in Iowa this time because if you win in Iowa this time you have a chance to win the nomination.”

Talk radio conservative Steve Deace shared his perspective as an enthusiastic Huck supporter in 2008 who has grown disillusioned more recently: “Ideologically, the Huckabee of today sounds a lot more like the Rod Roberts of 2010 than the [Bob] Vander Plaats of 2010.”

Republican Andrew Naeve announced today that he will run in the new Iowa Senate district 49 in 2012. He is a sixth-generation farmer in his mid-20s who serves on the East Central School Board. District 49 covers all of Clinton County and parts of northern Scott County, including the towns of Princeton and Le Claire. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district, but no-party voters have a plurality. As of April 2011, the new district 49 contained 13,524 registered Democrats, 10,139 Republicans and 16,918 no-party voters. After the jump I’ve posted Naeve’s press release and a district map.

Naeve ran for Iowa Senate district 13 last year, losing to Tod Bowman by a 70-vote margin after a recount. The open seat should have been an easy hold for Democrats, who had a strong registration advantage in the district. Notably, Naeve carried Clinton County by more than 500 votes in that race, even though there were nearly 4,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the county at the time. Granted, 2010 was a poor year for Democratic turnout in Iowa, but the number of Democrats who cast ballots in Clinton County last November exceeded the number of Republican voters there by more than 1,000. Naeve must have done well with no-party voters.

No current state senator lives in the new district 49, which is why it will be among the odd-numbered Iowa Senate seats up for election in 2012. To my knowledge, no Democrat has announced plans to run in the district. Some have speculated that Bowman, an educator in Maquoketa (Jackson County), may move to district 49 to resolve being paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock in the new Senate district 29. I think it would be wiser for Democrats to recruit someone from Clinton County for this race. Presidential election year turnout should favor a Democratic candidate in district 49, but Naeve has shown he has crossover appeal.

UPDATE: John Deeth writes,

If Bowman were to move within his old Senate district, say, into Clinton County, he would be considered a holdover senator and his four-year term would continue till 2014. However, recent speculation points another direction: Bowman could also stay put in Maquoketa and hold over in District 29 if Hancock, age 63, retires. (Hancock was elected in 2008 so he would have to run no matter what.) District 29 is better for a Democrat by about 3,000 voters.

Hancock retiring would be fine by me. He has signed discharge petitions seeking to bring both the constitutional amendment on marriage and the 20-week abortion ban to votes on the Senate floor.

Former State Senator Bill Heckroth announced today that he will run as a Democrat in Iowa House district 63 next year. Heckroth owns a financial planning business in Waverly, the largest town in the district. To my knowledge, Heckroth does not have a campaign website up yet. I’ve posted the Iowa House Democrats’ press release after the jump, along with a district map.

The new district 63 includes all of Bremer County and parts of northern Black Hawk County, outside the Waterloo and Cedar Falls city limits. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, but independents have a plurality. As of April 2011, the district contained 5,225 registered Democrats, 6,395 registered Republicans and 9,128 no-party voters.

Aside from a few Black Hawk County precincts, the entire territory in the new House district 63 was part of the old Iowa Senate district 9, which Heckroth represented from 2007 through 2010. Here’s a map of that district. Over the past two decades, Heckroth has been involved with a wide variety of community organizations in Waverly; his press release lists them below. In his successful 2006 race, Heckroth outpolled Republican Tom Hoogestraat in both the Bremer and Black Hawk portions of the district. Heckroth lost his 2010 re-election bid to Bill Dix, who also had a strong base in Waverly, but even then Heckroth outperformed Governor Chet Culver in Bremer.

No current state representative lives in the new district 63. As far as I know, no Republican has announced plans to run in this district. Three-term House member Pat Grassley represents part of Bremer County; he could move to this district as a way to resolve being paired with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney in the new House district 50. However, that scenario seems unlikely. House district 50 has a much larger GOP voter registration advantage than district 63. Also, Sweeney voted against the redistricting plan while Grassley voted for it, suggesting that he will be able to stay put.

Last week, Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) brought up the need to end oil subsidies repeatedly during an Iowa Public Television appearance. This week, Boswell and other House Democrats requested “a full House Agriculture Committee hearing and investigation into the relationship between rising oil prices and Wall Street speculators.” So I was surprised to see Boswell vote for an offshore drilling bill the House approved on May 5.

Details on yesterday’s votes and Boswell’s recent statements on oil policy are after the jump.

Cedar Rapids business owner Steve Rathje announced yesterday that he is exploring a race against three-term Democratic Representative Bruce Braley in Iowa’s first Congressional district. Rathje noted that “only one quarter of the American people believe our country is headed in the right direction.” With high rates of unemployment and underemployment bringing the country to “a tipping point economically,” Rathje touted his experience in creating or preserving manufacturing jobs in the U.S.  The full text of his press release is after the jump.

If Rathje runs against Braley, it would be his third attempt to win a seat in Congress. He finished a close third in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2008, behind Christopher Reed and George Eichhorn. Rathje finished a distant second to Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the Republican primary for the second Congressional district in 2010.

The economy will be the central issue in the next election, and Rathje may be well-positioned to talk about job creation. Click here to view one of his television commercials from last year’s IA-02 race. In addition, Republicans would be wise to run a candidate from Linn County against Braley. The Cedar Rapids metro area is the largest population center in the new IA-01, and Braley has not represented Linn before. I posted Iowa’s new Congressional map after the jump.

I’m not convinced Rathje has a strong enough Linn County base to make this race competitive, though. He carried Linn in the 2008 Senate primary but finished behind Ottumwa-based ophthalmologist Miller-Meeks in his home county in 2010. In fact, some Linn County GOP movers and shakers recruited Rob Gettemy to the IA-02 primary last year because they weren’t satisfied with the declared field against Democrat Dave Loebsack.

Rathje may also be too conservative to give Braley a tough challenge in a district with a partisan voting index of D+5, especially in a presidential election year. The 20 counties in the new IA-01 voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by a 58 to 40 percent margin in 2008, and for John Kerry over George W. Bush by a 53 to 46 percent margin in 2004.  

Nine-term incumbent Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) and eight-term incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell (IA-03) will face off next year in Iowa’s third Congressional district. Latham spoke about the 2012 campaign today, making his first public remarks on the subject since he confirmed he would run against Boswell. Highlights from his comments are after the jump, along with Boswell’s first preview of how he will compare his record to Latham’s.

Representatives Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) are among 50 House Republicans the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting this week in robocalls to their new districts. King will run for re-election in Iowa’s newly-drawn fourth district in 2012; his likely Democratic opponent is Christie Vilsack. Latham will run in the new third district against Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell. The automated phone calls highlight the April 15 vote for Paul Ryan’s budget, which would transform Medicare over time into a voucher program through which seniors could buy private health insurance. Here’s the script:

Hi, this is Claire from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee calling about Congressman Tom Latham’s vote to end Medicare.

Everyone agrees we must cut spending and tighten our belt, but Congressman Latham has made all the wrong choices.  He actually voted to end Medicare, rather than end taxpayer giveaways for Big Oil making record profits or tax breaks for the ultra rich!

Seniors who pay a lifetime into Medicare deserve the benefits they’ve earned. Under the Latham-Republican plan Medicare ends, benefits to seniors are less, and costs to seniors increase – in order to pay for Big Oil taxpayer giveaways and the ultra rich’s tax breaks.

America is built on shared sacrifice.  Tom Latham is choosing to place the burden on seniors.  That’s not right.

Please call Congressman Latham at (515) 232-2885 and tell him to keep his hands off our Medicare!

The robocall against King uses the same script, substituting King’s name for Latham’s and giving King’s phone number at the end: (712) 224-4692.

The DCCC clearly sees Medicare as a central issue for the 2012 campaign. The new IA-03 and especially the new IA-04 contain a higher-than-average proportion of senior citizens. I think most incumbent Republicans will be able to explain away this vote, saying changes to Medicare wouldn’t affect current beneficiaries and Democrats have also voted for cuts to the program.

The 501(c)4 organization Americans United for Change started running a television commercial against King this week, also focusing on Medicare. Mark Langgin posted the video in this diary. He notes that Public Policy Polling’s latest Iowa survey found Christie Vilsack’s favorables to be better than King’s statewide. Too bad she’ll be running against him only in the 39 counties that make up the new IA-04.

Last week, a group of conservative Iowa House Republicans finally made good on their promise to introduce articles of impeachment against the four remaining Iowa Supreme Court justices who concurred in the 2009 Varnum v Brien decision on marriage. The impeachment bills won’t make it out of committee, let alone the Iowa House, but there may be some political fallout from the effort.

After the jump I examine the articles of impeachment, future prospects for their backers and recent news related to the 2012 judicial retention elections.

This week Governor Terry Branstad declared April to be “Abortion Recovery Month” in Iowa. Anti-choice organizations and crisis pregnancy centers were invited to the proclamation signing, and women who regret their abortions spoke at a press conference. Human beings have complex reactions to significant life events, and I feel empathy for anyone who feels sad about important choices. However, it is inaccurate to suggest that all women who exercise their legal right to an abortion need to go through a “recovery” process. The American Psychological Association’s Task Force on Mental Health and Abortion concluded in a 2008 report that “among adult women who have an unplanned pregnancy the relative risk of mental health problems is no greater if they have a single elective first-trimester abortion than if they deliver that pregnancy. […] the TFMHA reviewed no evidence sufficient to support the claim that an observed association between abortion history and mental health was caused by the abortion per se, as opposed to other factors.” Some mental health professionals believe that “emotional issues, especially feelings of guilt, begin to rise along with anti-choice efforts to restrict abortion.”

The Iowa House approved a 20-week abortion ban at the end of March. The bill is modeled on a Nebraska statute and is intended to deter an Omaha-based doctor from opening a new abortion clinic in Council Bluffs. It has stalled in the Senate Government Oversight Committee. Committee Chairman Tom Courtney said in mid-April that it was too late in the legislative session to adequately review the bill this year, and he would prefer to take it up in 2012. Council Bluffs Mayor Tom Hanafan, a Democrat, recently urged the Senate to act on the bill before adjourning. The mayor does not want his city to become “home to a clinic that specializes in later term abortions.” Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, who represents the Council Bluffs area, has said he would not block the abortion bill from coming to a vote and is letting the normal committee process work.

Women who are pregnant and planning to stay pregnant should be aware that April is cesarean awareness month. At the request of Iowa chapters of the International Cesarean Awareness Network, Branstad issued a proclamation to that effect. The c-section rate in Iowa rose to 30.2 percent in 2009, the most recent year for which statistics are available. That is way above the optimal level, but the national average is even higher at 32.9 percent. The central Iowa chapter of the International Cesarean Awareness Network posted statistics for c-sections and vaginal births after cesareans (VBACs) in Iowa hospitals here. Unfortunately, more than three quarters of Iowa hospitals prohibit pregnant women from even attempting VBACs. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Healthy People 2010 initiative set a goal of reducing the cesarean birth rate for low-risk women to 15 percent for women giving birth for the first time and 72 percent for women who have had a prior cesarean birth. Having a doula present during labor has been proven to reduce the need for cesareans and other major interventions.

Whether or not they are able to become pregnant, all sexually active people should be aware that April is STD Awareness Month. The Centers for Disease Control has lots of relevant facts and figures here. Planned Parenthood of the Heartland clinics across Iowa are encouraging people to get themselves tested for sexually transmitted diseases.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: State Representative Kurt Swaim is not running for re-election in the new House district 82, which covers Davis and Van Buren counties and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield. Swaim and fellow Democrat Curt Hanson were both placed in that district, but most of the population lives on Hanson’s current turf. Swaim was one of four House Democrats to vote for the 20-week abortion ban, one of three House Democrats to vote for a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, and one of nine House Democrats to vote for a bill banning secret recordings on Iowa farms. Hanson voted against all of those bills.

Former First Lady Christie Vilsack announced Wednesday that she will move to Ames next month and “continue to explore the possibility of representing Iowa in the US House of Representatives.” A Christie Vilsack for Iowa Facebook page and Christie Vilsack for Iowa website launched today as well. Vilsack’s statement and more news on the IA-04 race are after the jump.

Citing “several sources familiar with her thinking,” Alex Isenstadt reports at Politico today that former First Lady Christie Vilsack is leaning toward challenging five-term incumbent Steve King in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. Isenstadt notes that Vilsack met with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel last week in Washington. Israel reportedly promised Vilsack that he would support her if she runs against King, but that he would “unequivocally” back Representative Dave Loebsack if she runs against him in the Democratic primary to represent the second Congressional district.

Isenstadt’s piece doesn’t clarify whether Israel promised the DCCC’s financial backing for Vilsack in an IA-04 race. The DCCC officially supports all Democratic nominees for the U.S. House, but usually only spends money on behalf of a few dozen candidates. The 39 counties in the new fourth district (map after the jump) are in five different media markets, although most of the population could be reached by advertising in just Des Moines, Sioux City and Mason City.

Last week the Des Moines rumor mill suggested Vilsack had been calling state legislators in the second district. According to Isenstadt, she has discussed a possible race against King with some Democrats in IA-04:

Jan Bauer, chairwoman of the Story County Democratic Party in Ames, said she spoke with the former first lady several weeks ago and that Vilsack raised the possibility of challenging the conservative congressman.

“I’d be surprised if she doesn’t do it,” Bauer said in an interview.

A campaign in IA-04 would be an uphill climb for any Democrat, although Vilsack would start the race with unparalleled name recognition and the capacity to raise significant funds. King has never been a major-league fundraiser; his latest FEC filing indicated that he had $142,610.38 in his campaign account as of March 31.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread. I think a campaign in IA-02 would give Vilsack her best chance of winning a seat in Congress and holding that seat for more than two years. On the other hand, I would enjoy seeing a serious and well-funded challenge to Iowa’s most embarrassing politician of my lifetime.

Final note on IA-02: Loebsack’s latest FEC filing showed $121,874.47 cash on hand as of March 31. Representative Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin headlined a fundraiser for Loebsack in Iowa City over the weekend. Next month, Representative Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Senator Tom Harkin are hosting a fundraiser for Loebsack in Scott County, while Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) plans to hold a fundraiser for Loebsack in Jasper County.

UPDATE: U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told Democratic state senators on Monday that if his wife runs for Congress, “it will be a holy war.” That suggests she is leaning toward challenging King, rather than forcing a Democratic primary in IA-02.

SECOND UPDATE: From Bret Hayworth’s blog on April 19:

This morning, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn was traveling through Northwest Iowa to talk politics, including making a stop to talk with me at the office. He was raring to talk about the possibility of a King-Vilsack matchup.

“She can try and take Steve King on, but I think that will be a great opportunity for Republicans to mobilize. A presidential year, having  a very highlighted race in Northwest Iowa, is a guarantee that we are going to be able to turn out every Republican and conservative vote that would benefit a presidential candidate, all the way down the ticket,” Strawn said.

“Not only does Mrs. Vilsack not have any natural connection whatsoever to Northwest and north central Iowa, but culturally is out of step. She’s someone that has an affiliation with some organizations that would certainly inflame a lot of the pro-life voters in this area… Congressman King has a national following as well, and he would have the ability to call in all sorts of resources to aid the fight.”

THIRD UPDATE: Matt Paul, a former staffer for Governor Tom Vilsack, told the Des Moines Register on April 19,

“I can confirm that Christie and Tom Vilsack have completed a transaction and are moving to Ames,” said Matt Paul, a Democratic strategist who was a staffer for Tom Vilsack when he was governor. […]

Paul declined to offer further details about Christie Vilsack’s political intentions, but said: “There will be an announcement very soon.”

FOURTH UPDATE: A rare moment of agreement between Governor Terry Branstad and me:

“Well, she’s never lived in northwest Iowa and it’s a heavily Republican area,” Branstad said this morning. […]

“I think in southeast Iowa she would be a pretty formidable candidate where she grew up,” Branstad said. “I think in northwest Iowa she’d be a fish out of water.”

Two-term State Representative Nate Willems announced this morning that he will run for the Iowa Senate in the new district 48 in northeast Iowa. Willems was first elected in 2008 to Iowa House district 29, comprising parts of Linn and Johnson Counties. He is the ranking Democrat on the Iowa House Education Committee.

Senate district 48 comprises all of Delaware County, most of Linn County (other than Cedar Rapids and its suburbs), and part of Jones and Buchanan counties. Part of Willems’ current district (southeast Linn County, including the towns of Mount Vernon and Lisbon) are in Senate district 48. He grew up in Anamosa (Jones County), which is also in the district. After the jump I’ve posted the detailed map of the Senate district 48, the map showing all 50 new Iowa Senate districts, and Willems’ campaign announcement.

No incumbent senator lives in the new district 48, and it is one of the most evenly-balanced districts created in the redistricting plan. As of April 2011 the district contained 11,553 registered Democrats, 11,552 Republicans and 15,559 no-party voters.

Democrats currently hold a 26 to 24 majority in the Iowa Senate. For Democrats to maintain that majority after the 2012 elections, district 48 is probably a must-win.  

Citing “a Democratic source in the Hawkeye State,” Nathan Gonzales blogged at the Rothenberg Political Report that former First Lady Christie Vilsack “is likely” to run against Steve King in Iowa’s new fourth Congressional district. Vilsack “has not yet made a final decision,” according to this unnamed source.

Sounds to me like an Iowa Democrat wants to show Vilsack how favorably a campaign against Mr. “10 Worst” would be received. However, I would be very surprised to see Vilsack run in the state’s most Republican-leaning district, rather than in the Democratic-leaning second district in southeast Iowa. If she won a primary against Dave Loebsack, she would be almost assured of winning the general election in IA-02.

On the other hand, the new IA-04, containing 39 counties in northwest, north-central and northeast Iowa, is less of a hopeless cause for Democrats than King’s current district. John Kerry won just over 44 percent of the vote in the counties that will be in IA-04, and Obama took just over 48 percent of the vote there.

If Democrats do recruit a strong candidate in the new IA-04, there will be plenty of small-dollar donors and volunteers willing to help retire King. But King has passionate supporters too, far beyond heavily Republican northwest Iowa.

Spin your own 2012 Congressional election scenario in this thread.

P.S.: Suzy Khimm of Mother Jones asked King this week about a Republican proposal to raise the qualifying age for Social Security:

Not every House Republican seemed so excited about [Senator Lindsey] Graham’s plan. Even on the party’s right flank, some members seemed wary of tackling Social Security, long described as the untouchable “third rail” of politics. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a well-known flamethrower within the party, demurred when asked about the issue. “It’s a delicate thing,” King said. “I represent perhaps the most senior congressional district in America. I’m not in a position where I can speak about [Social Security reform] publicly.”

According to the National Journal, 16.8 percent of the residents in King’s current district are at least 65 years old; that makes IA-05 the 18th “grayest” district in the country. The current IA-04 is the 37th “grayest,” with about 15.9 percent of residents at least 65 years old. I don’t know the exact figure for the new IA-04.

Governor Terry Branstad announced this morning that he will sign the redistricting bill approved yesterday by the Iowa House and Senate. While taping an episode of Iowa Public Television’s “Iowa Press” program, Branstad asserted that all four Congressional districts will be competitive.

I’ve posted the Congressional district map after the jump. Click here to view the state House and Senate district maps and other redistricting information on the Iowa legislature’s official site.

Soon after Branstad’s announcement, Representative Tom Latham sent his supportersan e-mail announcing his plans to run for Congress in Iowa’s new third district. I don’t blame him for wanting to avoid a Republican primary against Steve King in the new fourth district. Latham’s move sets up a contest between him and Democrat Leonard Boswell, who lives in Polk County. Boswell currently represents Polk County, the largest in the district. Latham currently represents Warren, Dallas and Madison counties.

Boswell’s campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee already released statements about Latham’s plans today. I’ve posted those after the jump. Boswell is on the DCCC’s list of “Frontline” incumbents who may be vulnerable in 2012. The DCCC will hit Latham and other Republicans hard over their vote today for Paul Ryan’s fiscal year 2012 budget resolution. Boswell’s statement emphasized his connection to the district, noting that during his political career he has represented nearly 70 percent of the new IA-03 population. Boswell served three terms in the Iowa Senate before winning his first term in Congress.

In other redistricting news, State Representative Janet Petersen announced today that she will run for the Iowa Senate in the new district 18 (map). She was first elected to House district 64 in northwest Des Moines in 2000. I’ve posted Petersen’s campaign announcement below.

Any comments about the new maps or Iowa elections in 2012 are welcome in this thread. I will update the post if more state House and Senate candidates announce plans to move, retire or run for higher office.

UPDATE: Boswell spoke to Shane D’Aprile of The Hill this week:

“I would just say that I’ve had a tough race every time and that’s what I expect,” said Boswell, adding that his new district will have “half the counties I’ve served before anyway.”

“The one thing [Latham] would have to think about, or even King for that matter, if he were to move south, is that if you’re going to represent the capital city, you better be ready for a tough competition every year,” Boswell said. “So they’ll have to really think about that. Whereas if one of them wins that new 4th district, they could probably coast a little bit by comparison.”  

SECOND UPDATE: No surprise, King confirmed he is running for re-election in the new fourth district.

THIRD UPDATE: Branstad signed the redistricting plan into law on April 19.

The Iowa House and Senate voted this morning to accept the first redistricting plan proposed by the Legislative Services Agency. Click here to view maps of the redrawn Congressional and state legislative districts.

The Senate vote was 48 to 1, with Republican Sandy Greiner the only dissenter. Greiner would not face re-election in 2012 under the plan, but her new district contains more of Johnson County, and for that reason would have a Democratic voter registration advantage. Republican State Senator James Hahn had previously said he would vote no on this plan; perhaps he and fellow Republican Shawn Hamerlinck have figured out what to do now that they are in the same Senate district.

John Deeth explains here which senators would face the voters in 2012 and how some potential contests between two incumbents might shake out. I would add that Pat Ward is not guaranteed an uncontested GOP primary in the new 22nd district, containing Waukee, Windsor Heights, Clive and a lot of West Des Moines. Other people, including former radio talk show host Steve Deace, may be interested in that safe GOP seat.

In the Iowa House, 91 representatives voted for the plan, including all Democrats present and most of the Republican caucus. Seven House Republicans voted no. Clel Baudler’s House seat was and remains solidly Republican; maybe he just doesn’t like the idea of being in the new third Congressional district (a swing district).

Mark Brandenburg and Mary Ann Hanusa were two more no votes; the plan puts them into the same Council Bluffs House seat, leaving Democrats a possible pickup in the empty district containing the rest of Council Bluffs.

Annette Sweeney was another no vote; she’s risen to the position of House Agriculture Committee chair but now will be thrown into a district with Pat Grassley. He didn’t vote against the plan, so maybe Sweeney feels she will get the short end of the stick there.

Two members of the House Republican leadership team voted against the map. One was Assistant Majority Leader Renee Schulte, and I’m not surprised. She won her Cedar Rapids district by only 13 votes in 2008, and the new map gives Democrats a larger registration advantage there. UPDATE: Schulte said she opposed splitting the Iowa City/Cedar Rapids corridor into two Congressional districts.

House Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaufmann was the other member of the Republican leadership team to vote no today. Deeth notes that his new district leans Democratic, losing part of Muscatine County while gaining more of Johnson County. UPDATE: Kaufmann wrote to Deeth:

It would have been nice for you to ask me about my NO vote. It had nothing to do with my new House seat. My seat has always been Democratic-leaning and was actually almost 1200 plus Democrats a few years ago. In fact since it is rural Johnson County it is only about a 500 vote difference than my current district even after the 2010 election. Actually a new map could have been much worse for me in party registration […].

My NO vote had to do with the new Senate District and my constituents, both Democratic and Republican, wanting uniformity in their Senate District instead of a rural county attached to an urban area. My NO vote reflected the desire to have a conversation about uniformity within Senate Districts, something I have talked about for years.

Governor Terry Branstad now has three days to sign or veto the redistricting bill. He has promised a careful review but also indicated that he hasn’t heard “a compelling reason to reject it.” For that matter, neither has anyone else. Yesterday The Iowa Republican blog publisher Craig Robinson suggested that the maps aren’t good for Republicans long-term and said he’d like to see what was behind door number 2. Perhaps Robinson is trying to encourage Branstad to veto the plan, or he could just be spinning.

After today’s votes in the legislature, Representative Dave Loebsack confirmed that he will move from Linn County, which would be part of the first Congressional district, into the new second district, covering most of southeast Iowa.

UPDATE: Statements from Loebsack, Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sue Dvorsky are after the jump.

Tom Latham’s press secretary told the Sioux City Journal’s Bret Hayworth that “the congressman will have no statement on the redistricting plan and what it means for him, since it’s still not official, pending action by the governor.”

SECOND UPDATE: Added Bruce Braley’s statement below.

THIRD UPDATE: Added Leonard Boswell’s statement. James Q. Lynch talked to several of the Republicans who voted no. Excerpts from their comments are below.

Steve King’s recorded voice greeted me when I picked up the phone at about 6:30 pm today. He asked if I was registered to vote; I said yes. He wanted to ask a few questions about a very important issue. Did I support the “total repeal of Obamacare”? Not thinking like a blogger, I gave the “wrong” answer to this question (no), so King’s voice thanked me for my time and ended the phone call. He said the call was paid for by the King for Congress committee and gave a 712 area code phone number (my phone showed that the call came from the Washington, DC area).

I live in Polk County, and the only voters in my household are registered Democrats. At least one household I know of, containing only Democrats in Dallas County, received the same robocall. I don’t know whether King is calling district-wide or just in the IA-03 counties he hasn’t represented before. The proposed third district (map) contains 12 counties King currently represents: Pottawattamie, Mills, Fremont, Cass, Montgomery, Page, Adair, Adams, Taylor, Union, Ringgold, and Guthrie. It also contains three counties Republican Tom Latham currently represents: Warren, Madison and Dallas. Democrat Leonard Boswell represents the largest county in the district, Polk, containing Des Moines and most of its suburbs.  

A request for Bleeding Heartland readers who get King’s call: please let me know what questions follow if you answer yes, you support the total repeal of Obamacare. Also, it would be helpful to know what county you live in and whether your household includes registered Democrats only, or also no-party voters and Republicans. You can either post a comment in this thread or e-mail me confidentially: desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com.

If King is trying to identify Democrats in IA-03 who share his stance on health care reform, then presumably he has not ruled out moving to this district to avoid a GOP primary against Latham in the new IA-04. The new fourth district has a Republican tilt, whereas the new third district is almost evenly balanced politically. The proposed IA-03 voted 51.9 percent Obama, 45.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 47.1 percent Kerry, 52.1 percent Bush in 2004. The proposed IA-04 voted 48.1 percent Obama, 49.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 44.2 percent Kerry, 55.0 percent Bush in 2004.

I believe it would be foolish for King to run in IA-03; my hunch is that a lot of Polk County independents and even Republicans would vote for Latham but not King. Then again, Latham would be unbeatable in the new IA-04, where he has represented 35 of the 39 counties. King would be strongly favored in IA-04 but perhaps vulnerable against the right Democratic candidate, especially in a presidential year.

UPDATE: In the comments, Bleeding Heartland user rurallib describes the rest of this phone call, as heard way over in eastern Iowa (Muscatine County). King obviously isn’t thinking about running for Congress in the second district, so perhaps he is robocalling statewide to identify and raise money from health care reform-haters.

Few weapons are more effective in politics than well-placed ridicule. Used incompetently, however, political mockery is just cringe-inducing.

Case in point: the event the Iowa Democratic Party staged yesterday to make fun of Mitt Romney.

The five-member Temporary Redistricting Advisory Commission unanimously recommended today that the Iowa legislature “accept the first proposed Congressional and Legislative redistricting plan,” submitted by the Legislative Services Agency on March 31. I’ve posted the full text of the commission’s report after the jump. Key excerpt:

a. The Commission is grateful to those members of the public who made the effort to provide oral and written testimony concerning the redistricting plan and for those members of the public who attended the public hearings conducted throughout the state. While the concerns expressed by the participants at the public hearings concerning the plan were thoughtful and constructive, they were not within the constitutional and statutory criteria upon which the plan is to be evaluated by the Commission and the Commission is of the opinion that the Legislative Services Agency has satisfied those constitutional and statutory requirements.

b. The Commission is supportive of the many comments heard during the public hearings praising Iowa’s unique and nonpartisan redistricting process.

The commission’s report did not specifically address concerns that Bettendorf resident James Davis raised in a 20-page document last week. Bleeding Heartland discussed Davis’ arguments about the “convenience” standard and other criticisms of the redistricting plan here.

Click here to download the proposed Iowa maps for four Congressional districts, 100 House districts and 50 Senate districts. The Legislative Services Agency’s report on the redistricting proposal is available there too. The Iowa House and Senate may consider House Study Bill 235 as early as this Thursday. If both chambers approve the plan and Governor Terry Branstad signs the bill, Iowa will be the first state to complete its redistricting process.

On Iowa Public Television over the weekend, House Speaker Kraig Paulsen said of the proposal, “I look at the House map, I see a pathway to Republican control;  I can also see a pathway to Democratic control.  So that tells me maybe there’s a heightened level of fairness.” Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal commented, “I’d actually say the opposite.  We kind of both don’t like what we see but don’t figure there’s a way to get a better map.  If it was actually stacked pretty well for Democrats, I’m pretty sure Speaker Paulsen is going to take it down in the House and vice versa.  So we both look at the map and see no guarantees, but we both see a pathway. And that is […] that is kind of the essence of a fair map.”

Share any thoughts about the redistricting plan or process in this thread.

P.S.: A rumor going around says Christie Vilsack has been calling state legislators in the proposed second Congressional district.

P.P.S: Representative Dave Loebsack is said to be calling state legislators in his district too.

A pathetically small crowd of about a dozen people turned up for the final public hearings on the first redistricting plan for Iowa last night. As was the case at the previous hearings, few people stood up to criticize the plan, and the complaints raised were not cohesive.

The low turnout and lack of consistent talking points suggest that neither political party mobilized supporters to pack these hearings. That in turn suggests neither Democratic nor Republican leaders believe this map clearly puts them at a disadvantage. More details about the hearings and the next steps in the redistricting process are after the jump.  

It’s a perfect subject for local tv news: a crime story with an Iowa caucus angle.

A 15-year-old girl found a campaign worker from Alabama banging on her Ankeny family’s back door early Wednesday morning.

Chloe Steward told KCCI she heard her dog barking around 3 a.m. and went to investigate. She said she found a man trying to get into the back door. […]

Police said Benjamin Foster was arrested and charged with public intoxication and trespassing. He was taken to the Polk County Jail.

Iowa political strategist Eric Woolson is a consultant for the Pawlenty Exploratory Committee. He confirmed to KCCI that Foster is employed by the Pawlenty Exploratory Committee. […]

The Steward family said Foster was drunk and was trying to get home to a friend’s house in Johnston. They said he vomited in their backyard and scared their daughter.

Campaign veterans know that as a staffer, you never want the news to be about you, especially when the police get involved. KCCI posted a statement from the exploratory committee in which Foster apologized and took “full responsibility” for his actions, while Woolson said Foster was on a two-week unpaid suspension. I would guess he will soon be an ex-employee of the exploratory committee, or at least moved to a different state. In his next position, Foster should remember to arrange for a ride home when he plans to go out drinking.

Iowa politics junkie that I am, I was most interested in this part of the KCCI story: “Ankeny Police Chief Gary Mikulec said Foster told the officers he was staying at 6905 Jack London Dr., in Johnston.” The Polk County Assessor’s website indicates that property is owned by Erik and Michael Helland. That would be Iowa House Majority Whip Erik Helland, who represents House district 69, covering suburban and rural areas in northern Polk County. I don’t know for sure that it’s his primary residence, but it appears to be the only property he owns in Polk County.

Pawlenty did a fundraiser for Helland last year, and Helland has spoken favorably about Pawlenty’s prospects in the caucuses. I haven’t seen any formal endorsement, but if Helland is letting a Pawlenty staffer stay in his home, it sounds like he’s fully committed.

A detailed roundup of Iowa caucus news is in progress. Meanwhile, share any relevant thoughts in this thread. Anecdotes about boneheaded moves by campaign staffers are particularly welcome.

I find myself unable to resist the temptation to link to Helland’s recent close encounter with a live mic.

UPDATE: Both Tyler Kingkade and Bleeding Heartland user xjcsa noticed that Helland’s legislative web page lists 6905 Jack London Drive as his home address. Many other news accounts have noted that Helland was arrested last summer on a DWI.

When I saw the Legislative Services Agency’s proposed map of Iowa Congressional districts, my first thought was that the third district looks a lot like the fourth district during the 1990s, except less dominated by Polk County. That earlier configuration helped Republican Greg Ganske defeat 36-year incumbent Neal Smith in 1994. Ganske was re-elected to represent IA-04 three times before leaving the House to run against Senator Tom Harkin in 2002.

Representative Leonard Boswell is the only Congressional incumbent who lives in the proposed IA-03, and some people are spinning this map as great for Democrats because Boswell comes from and used to represent part of southwest Iowa. I disagree. Representative Tom Latham could easily move to Dallas or Polk County to challenge Boswell. Doing so would avoid a Republican primary in the new fourth district between Latham and Steve King. Latham seems like a stronger candidate than Ganske, while Boswell is weaker than Smith, who was a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee in 1994. Polk County has a Democratic voter registration edge and more than half the population of the proposed IA-03, but as a whole the district is politically balanced. George W. Bush carried the counties in the new IA-03 by 5 points in 2004; Barack Obama won the area in 2008, but by a smaller margin than his statewide edge over John McCain.

Not every Iowa politics watcher shares my view that Latham will move to IA-03 if the first redistricting proposal becomes law. After the jump I examine what could prompt Latham to stay put in Story County and what arguments would dominate a Latham-King contest.

Iowa legislators from both parties seem ready to approve the redistricting plan offered by the Legislative Services Agency on Thursday. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, whose Council Bluffs district barely changed, encouraged colleagues  to take a “cold, hard look” at the map, since the second offering “may not be as good.” Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley’s weekly e-mail blast spoke favorably about the redistricting process. Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, who was thrown into House district 8 with two other Republican representatives, said, “The next map might be something less desirable.” The Associated Press reported that “one of the potential rivals is retiring and the other laying plans to run for the senate.” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy described the map as a “a wash, with good and bad on both sides.”

Two factors are pushing lawmakers to accept the plan. First,

[Democratic legislative staffer Ron] Parker noted that 27 House members and 14 senators are paired under the proposed map. He says that’s about half the number tossed together the last two times the Legislature approved districts.

In 1991, 50 House members and 20 senators were paired and those numbers were 39 and 25 when lawmakers drew new lines in 2001.  

Parker said Friday that many Republicans and Democrats assume there could be even more pairings if lawmakers reject the initial proposed map.  

Second, Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 pointed out Thursday that the extremely low population variance between the Congressional districts leaves both parties “in the dark for the second map” and without credible ways to assert that the plan violates Iowa Code:

The LSA has taken away the option of playing the odds. There are maps with smaller pop dev, but with questionable compactness. The LSA can choose to go with a higher pop dev based on this. How do you play it? Do they go down or up? And which pattern is most likely to be chosen?

The difference between this and 2001 is that the first map last time had multiple credible options with lower pop devs. Based on pattern analysis, you could go and plead what you considered important based on arguments fitted to the Iowa Code.

If yesterday had been like 2001, the first map would have had a mean deviation of 155 persons. Instead they went low, real low. […]

If the LSA had put out a first map with a mean pop dev comparable to 2001 (after adjusting for larger districts), you would have had the opportunity to argue about what represents IA better: regionalized vs balanced, for example. By offering up a map right on the edge, that has largely been rendered moot.

I’m assuming rational actors are involved. You always have to ask the question, what are the odds of my situation improving? If you can’t answer that (and it is very difficult here), bird in the hand applies.

Assuming this plan becomes law, some incumbents will have hard choices to make. John Deeth collected news here about legislators making arrangements to avoid elections against each other. My current State Senator Pat Ward is ready to move to a different part of the Des Moines suburbs to run in the new Senate district 22 instead of against Democratic Senator Matt McCoy in the new district 21. She may have competition in the Republican primary, because former WHO talk radio personality Steve Deace lives in what would be district 22 and sounds interested. Shortly after leaving WHO this year, Deace indicated that he would consider running for the Iowa Senate.

In other Iowa news, today is the second anniversary of the Iowa Supreme Court’s Varnum v Brien ruling, which struck down the state’s Defense of Marriage Act. Gronstal blocked a vote on a constitutional amendment to overturn that ruling in the state Senate this year and will do so next year too. If Republicans gain control of the upper chamber in the 2012 elections, they would need to pass a marriage amendment in the legislature in 2013, hold both chambers in 2014, and pass the amendment again in 2015 in order to get the measure on a statewide ballot in November 2016.

The most depressing news I’ve seen this weekend relates to the ongoing disaster in Japan. The death toll from last month’s earthquake and tsunami could exceed 16,000.  Authorities don’t have a solid plan for disposing of radioactive water used to cool reactors and spent fuel pools at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear facility. Now some of the radioactive water is leaking into the ocean, and the early attempts to stop the leaking have failed.

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind this weekend, Bleeding Heartland readers?

Minutes ago the Legislative Services Agency released a new map of Iowa political boundaries, containing four Congressional districts, 50 state Senate districts and 100 state House districts. I don’t see the map on the state legislature’s official site yet but will update this post as more information becomes available today.

This thread is for any comments related to Iowa redistricting. I posted a timeline of upcoming events in the process after the jump.

I liked one veteran Republican lawmaker’s advice:

If the map is good to you, stay quiet, advises Rep. Stewart Iverson, R-Clarion, who was Senate majority during redistricting leader 10 years ago. If it’s not, stay quieter.

On the other hand, Kathie Obradovich’s counsel to legislators in today’s column baffled me:

Redistricting will be painful. Do it fast. [….] Hurt feelings and simmering resentment over redistricting can pollute the caucus and spill over into discussion of other bills. Best to get it over with as soon as humanly possible.

We’re talking about a map that will affect Iowa elections for a decade. If the Legislative Services Agency doesn’t produce a map that seems fair to both parties the first time, have them do it again. There is no perfect redistricting plan, but improving a mediocre map is more important than wrapping things up fast at the capitol.

UPDATE: The Des Moines Register reports that the map throws Republican Representatives Tom Latham and Steve King together in the new fourth Congressional district. Democratic Representatives Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack are both in the new first district. Representative Leonard Boswell has the third district to himself, and the second district (which conveniently contains Christie Vilsack’s home town of Mount Pleasant) is open. Presumably Loebsack would move to the second district if this map were accepted.

Iowa Public Radio’s Jeneane Beck tweets, “If new map approved – 14 State Senate districts with more than one incumbent and seven with no incumbent.” In that case, I doubt this map will be approved.

SECOND UPDATE: The maps are now up on the legislature’s website, along with the proposed redistricting plan report.

THIRD UPDATE: Although Leonard Boswell has the new IA-03 to himself, it’s not a good map for him, with the district stretching to the south and west of Polk County. That reminds me of the IA-04 map from the 1990s, which helped bury Neal Smith.

I suspect Iowa House Republicans won’t be happy to see nine new districts where GOP incumbents would face each other. Three incumbents–Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer, Stew Iverson and Henry Rayhons–all reside in the new House district 8. Only three House districts are home to more than one Democratic incumbent. The new district 13 in Sioux City would pit first-term Republican Jeremy Taylor against first-term Democrat Chris Hall.

FOURTH UPDATE: After the jump I’ve added some highlights from the Legislative Services Agency’s report. The districts don’t look very compact to me, but they are fairly close in population.

IA-01 has 761,548 people, -41 from ideal

IA-02 has 761,624 people, +35 from ideal

IA-03 has 761,612 people, +23 from ideal

IA-04 has 761,571 people, -18 from ideal

I also posted reaction comments from Representatives Braley and Boswell, Iowa House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and Iowa Democratic Party Chair Sue Dvorsky.

You can find the maps for individual Iowa House and Senate districts here and here. As a Windsor Heights Democrat, I don’t like the looks of my new House district 43 or Senate district 22.

FIFTH UPDATE: Swing State Project helpfully provides the presidential results for each new Congressional district.

IA-01 went 58 percent Obama, 40.1 percent McCain in 2008, and 53.1 percent Kerry, 46.1 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-02 went 56.6 percent Obama, 41.2 percent McCain in 2008, and 52.5 percent Kerry, 46.5 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-03 went 51.9 percent Obama, 45.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 47.1 percent Kerry, 52.1 percent Bush in 2004.

IA-04 went 48.1 percent Obama, 49.8 percent McCain in 2008, and 44.2 percent Kerry, 55.0 percent Bush in 2004.

FINAL UPDATE: Added Loebsack’s statement after the jump, which makes clear he would move into IA-02 if this map is adopted.

Bleeding Heartland will continue to cover the implications of the first redistricting plan next week. I’ll be curious to see what arguments people make at the public hearings, aside from complaints about communities of interest being divided. Not only are Linn and Johnson counties separated, but the Des Moines metro area is split among three districts.

Via John Deeth’s blog, I see Jake Wagman has a scoop in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

“Tell Christie I think it’s a great idea,” [Senator Claire] McCaskill said to [U.S. Secretary of Agriculture] Tom Vilsack after a press conference at the ADM grain elevator in St. Louis. “Tell her I’ll come up and knock on some doors!”

McCaskill’s endorsement is not without some complications, and not just because Iowa’s caucus status make its state politics of national import.

Census results will force Iowa, like Missouri, to shed one of its congressional districts in 2012. That means if Vilsack, who recently left her day job, runs, she’ll have to challenge an incumbent — most likely U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell, an eight-term Democrat and Missouri native who represents the Des Moines area.

McCaskill knows a thing or two about primaries; she successfully challenged Missouri’s incumbent Democratic governor in 2004. I doubt the backing of a neighboring state’s senator would count for much if Christie Vilsack ends up running against Boswell in the redrawn third Congressional district, but it would be an ironic shift in alliances. In early 2008, McCaskill endorsed Barack Obama for president, just when Hillary Clinton’s campaign was riding the momentum from winning the New Hampshire primary. Both Tom and Christie Vilsack had campaigned their hearts out for Clinton before the Iowa caucuses. Boswell had also endorsed Clinton for president and pledged his support to her as a superdelegate. He continued to back Clinton in the spring of 2008, even though he was under pressure to switch after Obama carried IA-03 in the Iowa caucuses.

Because she is from Mount Pleasant, Vilsack could decide to challenge Representative Dave Loebsack in the 2012 Democratic primary to represent the second Congressional district. However, my hunch is she won’t run for Congress at all if she doesn’t like the look of the new IA-03.

Share any thoughts about Iowa’s 2012 Congressional races in this thread. Can’t wait to see that map on Thursday morning.

MARCH 31 UPDATE: I stand corrected. The proposed IA-02 map is a dream come true for Christie Vilsack. It’s an empty, Democratic-leaning district containing Mount Pleasant. IA-03 is much less appealing, heading south and west from Polk County without any of the Democratic-leaning neighbors (Story, Jasper, Marshall).

Political junkies anxiously await the Legislative Services Agency’s release of a new Iowa map at 8:15 am on March 31. To learn more about the process, check out the “Introduction to Redistricting in Iowa” from the state legislature’s official website. The Legislative Guide to Redistricting in Iowa (pdf) contains many details on the history of redistricting and legal requirements governing the process for drawing new maps. Here’s a timeline of what to expect during this process.

March 31: The Legislative Services Agency will deliver a congressional and legislative redistricting plan to both chambers of the General Assembly (the law requires this to be done by April 1).

April 4-7: The Temporary Redistricting Advisory Commission must “schedule and conduct at least three public hearings in different geographic regions of the state and to issue a report to the General Assembly summarizing the information and testimony received.” This year the commission scheduled four public hearings, one for each Congressional district. Locations and times of public hearings scheduled for April 4-7 are at the end of this post.

April 13: The commission must then report to the legislature on the input from public hearings, no later than two weeks after the Legislative Services Agency submitted the plan.

Second half of April: The Iowa House and Senate must bring a redistricting bill to a vote “expeditiously” but no sooner than three days after receiving the Temporary Redistricting Advisory Commission’s report. The map receives an up or down vote; lawmakers cannot amend it during this stage of the process.

Late May or early June: If the Iowa House or Senate rejects the first redistricting plan, or Governor Terry Branstad vetoes it, the Legislative Services Agency has 35 days to submit a second plan to the legislature. “The second plan must be prepared in accordance with the reasons cited, if any, by the Senate or the House by resolution or the Governor by veto message, for the failure to approve the first plan, as long as the reasons do not conflict with any redistricting standard provided by the Code.” No public hearings are required on the second redistricting plan. The Iowa House and Senate must wait at least seven days after it has been submitted to vote on it, and again, no amendments are allowed. Branstad would have to call a special session of the legislature for this, since the Iowa House and Senate are expected to adjourn for the year in early May.

Late summer: If either chamber of the legislature or the governor rejects the second plan, the Legislative Services Agency is required to submit a third map within 35 days of when the second plan was rejected. No public hearings are required. The legislature must wait at least seven days to vote on the third plan, which can be amended like an ordinary bill. However, the Republican-controlled Iowa House and the Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate would probably find it difficult to amend the map to a mutually agreeable form.

September: If no consensus is reached on a third map, or Branstad vetoes a map approved by the legislature, the Iowa Supreme Court would take responsibility for drawing a valid map and would have to complete the process by December 31. If the legislature enacts a plan that is successfully challenged in the Iowa Supreme Court, the seven justices would take over the process of drawing a new apportionment plan. They would have 90 days from the date of their ruling striking down the map to complete the process.

The Des Moines rumor mill says politicians in both parties are wary of letting the Iowa Supreme Court draw political lines for the next decade. In all likelihood state legislators and the governor will sign off on either the first or the second map offered by the Legislative Services Agency. UPDATE: Citing unnamed Republican and Democratic insiders, Cityview’s Civic Skinny predicts the first map will be rejected “no matter how fair and how close to perfect it is,” but legislators will “avoid a third map that could conceivably be defeated.”

After the jump I’ve posted details on many events going on around the state this week. Scroll to the bottom to find out where and when the public can comment on the new Iowa map between April 4 and 7.

Iowa will soon introduce a season for hunting mourning doves, which had been protected for nearly 100 years as a symbol of peace. Last week, with no debate in the Iowa House or Senate, Senate File 464 passed both chambers easily. Governor Terry Branstad signed the bill into law with the usual photo-op for key backers, but he didn’t seem keen on media attention. The official press release on signing Senate File 464 lacked any quotes about how great the new law will be.

Over the decades, many Iowa lawmakers introduced dove-hunting legislation, and the Republican-controlled House and Senate approved a bill in 2001, but Governor Tom Vilsack vetoed it. Feelings on this issue have never broken down strictly on party lines; Democratic Senator Dick Dearden of Des Moines has been one of the most committed dove-hunting advocates. Senate File 464 passed the Iowa Senate on a bipartisan 30-18 vote; 19 Republicans and 11 Democrats voted yes, while 15 Democrats and three Republicans voted no. The bill cleared the House by 58 to 39; 48 Republicans and 10 Democrats voted yes, while 11 Republicans and 28 Democrats voted no. You can find the Iowa Senate roll call here and the House roll call here.

The Des Moines Register’s editorial board argued that legislators should have respected tradition and left the ban in place. In a Mason-Dixon poll of 625 Iowa voters between March 17 and 19, 54 percent of Iowans were against legalizing dove-hunting, while just 25 percent supported it. The Humane Society of the United States commissioned the survey, which found majority opposition in the Republican, Democratic and independent sub-samples.

Although I don’t hunt, I don’t feel more connected to mourning doves than to other wild birds. On the other hand, I believe legislation to expand hunting should have included provisions to protect wildlife from lead poisoning, which is a significant problem in Iowa.

Other news that caught my eye this week:

The Des Moines Register’s chief political reporter since 2002, Tom Beaumont, took a new job as the Des Moines correspondent for Associated Press.

As Des Moines Correspondent, Beaumont will join a political coverage team that includes state government reporter Mike Glover and Iowa City Correspondent Ryan J. Foley. Along with reporters from across the region and the AP’s Washington staff, they will ensure the AP’s report on the caucuses and the 2012 election is consistently first and always complete.

With only nine or ten months remaining before the Iowa caucuses, that’s not a timely departure for the Register.

Iowa State University President Gregory Geoffroy informed the Board of Regents that he will step down in the summer of 2012. He’s held the job since July 2001. I hope that before he leaves, Geoffroy will do the right thing and help the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture find strong leadership and more independence within the university. His successor won’t want to rile up the corporate interests that helped ISU set fundraising records during the past decade.  

This is an open thread. What’s on your mind, Bleeding Heartland readers?

UPDATE: Todd Dorman goes over the unusual process through which the dove-hunting bill passed:

Dove hunting did not soar to passage on gossamer wings, folks. It was more like a roach skittering across the kitchen floor in the dark, shielded from scrutiny by quick, deft maneuvers.

The dove bill was off the radar until just before a legislative funnel deadline that exterminates bills that don’t clear a committee. At the Senate Natural Resources and Environment Committee’s final meeting before the deadline, its chairman, Sen. Dick Dearden, D-Des Moines, sprung the bill and pushed it through. The bill was not on the committee’s published agenda. Surprise.

It passed the full Senate. That sent the bill to the House, where, normally, it would go through a House committee before being taken up on the floor. That provides some time for input and deliberation. Lawmakers can even call a public hearing.

Instead, just one day after Senate passage, House Republican leaders called up another Senate bill having to do with raccoon hunting. The House amended the raccoon bill so that it actually became the Senate dove bill. That very unusual bit of procedural crossbreeding allowed the dove bill to skip the House committee process entirely. Soon, the bill flew to Gov. Terry Branstad, who signed it fast and in private.

Representative Bruce Braley (D, IA-01) has introduced a bipartisan bill to put more people “with agricultural backgrounds” on the Environmental Protection Agency’s Science Advisory Board. The full press release from Braley’s office is after the jump. Excerpt:

“Our farmers must have a voice when it comes to their life’s work,” said Congressman Braley. “This bill will give them a chance to bring some common sense to EPA regulations that have an effect on them every single day.”

The EPA Science Advisory Board provides analysis and recommendations for EPA regulations and other technical matters that often impact agriculture. Farmers have become increasingly concerned that EPA decisions are creating unnecessary and undue economic hardship. For example, proposals to regulate dust on farms have raised concerns. Braley recently voted to protect Iowa farms from these burdensome federal dust regulations.

I don’t know the details on the proposed dust rules. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack has spoken with EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson about the issue and has urged farmers not to worry about excessive regulation of dust clouds on farms.

From where I’m sitting, it’s a bad time for Congress to pick on the EPA Science Advisory Board. While Braley implies EPA regulations are lacking in “common sense,” I see an agency that has recently backed off from protecting public health in order to appease certain industries and political opponents.

Here in Iowa, the last thing we need is another politician arguing that environmental regulations threaten farmers. Iowans with agricultural backgrounds have long been well represented on environmental regulatory and advisory bodies in this state. Now our Republican governor has handed over the state Environmental Protection Commission to agribusiness advocates and may move all water quality and monitoring programs to the agriculture department, something that hasn’t been done anywhere else in the country. Braley doesn’t seem too aware of the relationship between agricultural pollution and Iowa’s water quality problems; last year he supported a proposed expansion of a Scott County hog confinement despite evidence that the operator had previously violated manure discharge rules.

Braley’s press release names several agricultural groups supporting his new legislation. Perhaps this bill will help bolster his position as a voice for Iowa farmers. He lost most of the rural counties in his district in the 2010 election (pdf), and Iowa’s forthcoming four-district map will add more rural counties to the first Congressional district.

Braley has long championed the biofuels industry. He received the Iowa Corn Growers Association endorsement last year and won praise from the Renewable Fuels Association last month for “raising awareness about the anti-ethanol, anti-fuel choice agenda of some members of Congress.” (Braley clashed with Republican Representative Tom Latham (IA-04) over an amendment to confirm the EPA’s power to implement the Renewable Fuels Standard.) However, the Iowa Farm Bureau didn’t endorse a candidate in IA-01 last year. Although the American Farm Bureau supports Braley’s new bill on the EPA Science Advisory Board, I doubt the Iowa Farm Bureau would back him in 2012, especially if redistricting pits him against Latham. Braley voted for the 2009 climate change bill that the Farm Bureau strongly opposed and helped to bury in the Senate.

Incidentally, Representative Leonard Boswell (IA-03) was among the House Agriculture Committee Democrats who lobbied successfully to weaken the climate change bill’s impact on agriculture. I don’t recall Braley getting involved in that fight.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: On March 16 Braley and Boswell jointly introduced an amendment to preserve federal funding for “local governments and organizations to purchase and renovate foreclosed properties for resale in rural communities.” The press release on that amendment is after the jump.

Christie Vilsack stepped down last week as executive director of The Iowa Initiative, the Des Moines Register reported on Sunday:

Vilsack said she was taking a leave of absence to protect the Iowa Initiative from any political implications. With the title, Vilsack also gave up a $127,000 salary. She remains board chairwoman and would be free to resume the directorship should she abandon a political path, she told board members.

Vilsack declined a Register interview request. But she provided a brief written statement that supports the point that her change in status was her choice.

“I didn’t want any speculation about my future to affect the important work of the Iowa Initiative,” Vilsack said in the statement. “As such, I am taking an unpaid leave of absence from the organization.”

Vilsack was also urged by the foundation that finances the group to step down in light of the increased political activity.

Officials with the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, the Iowa Initiative’s sole funding source, sent Vilsack a letter last month asking her to step down out of concern about her political activity’s relationship to the foundation’s tax-exempt status.

The letter was discussed during the Monday meeting [during which Vilsack stepped down] and shared with board members who were not present. Officials with the foundation did not reply to The Des Moines Register’s request for comment.

Stepping down was the right decision for Vilsack. Non-profit organizations with 501(c)3 status cannot endorse political candidates, and it’s safer to avoid any appearance of endorsing a political candidate. Having been involved with 1000 Friends of Iowa during the 2006 election cycle, I remember many people assuming (incorrectly) that the organization was backing Ed Fallon for governor, even though he had resigned as 1000 Friends executive director more than a year before the Democratic primary.

On a different note, I have to say wow, the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation has been funding quite a generous salary for a non-profit executive director in Iowa. As far as I know, few staff working for non-profits around here earn six-figure salaries, unless the organization has significant corporate backing.

As of yesterday, former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson was already listed on the Iowa Initiative’s website as executive director. Perhaps the board of directors had been preparing to replace Vilsack for some time, or they felt it was important to appoint a successor immediately.

While Vilsack continues to lay the groundwork for a possible run for Congress, eight-term Representative Leonard Boswell continues to signal that he is running for re-election again in IA-03. In January Senator Tom Harkin headlined a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign. Last month Boswell hired experienced campaign operative Julie Stauch to run his district office in Des Moines. This month House Democratic Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will headline a fundraiser for the incumbent’s campaign at Roxanne Conlin’s home. In a statement to the Des Moines Register, Boswell said:

“Christie [Vilsack] is a good friend of mine and has been for decades. I respect and will defend her right to explore all her options, […] That said, it does not change anything that I am doing. I will be running for re-election and will be running from Polk County.”

Representative Leonard Boswell is the only Iowan on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s new list of 15 “Frontline” House incumbents. Josh Kraushaar notes,

The Frontline program has always been a critical part of the House Democrats’ campaign infrastructure, supporting and expanding their fundraising and outreach operations and offering a signal to the lobbying community who’s the most at risk.

Boswell’s been in the Frontline program every election this past decade. With the exception of 2008, he’s always been a target for Iowa Republicans and/or the National Republican Congressional Committee.

In 2012, Boswell may face Christie Vilsack or other Democratic primary challengers. The DCCC appears to be signaling that they will support him in a primary as well as in a general election.

More incumbents will be added to the Frontline program as new maps are drawn across the country and candidate recruitment takes shape. For now, the DCCC hasn’t put Representatives Bruce Braley (IA-01) or Dave Loebsack (IA-02) on the vulnerable incumbents’ list, but either could be adversely affected by Iowa’s new four-district map. In 2010 Braley won by the narrowest margin of all the Iowans in Congress, 49.5 percent to 47.5 percent, perhaps with an assist from third-party candidates. Loebsack’s margin of victory, 51 percent to 46 percent, was barely more than Boswell’s 50.8 percent to 46.6 percent win, even though Loebsack’s district had a six-point stronger Democratic lean than IA-03.

While many Iowa politics-watchers expect Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) to run in the newly drawn third district in 2012, he could end up facing Braley or even Loebsack (though that’s far less likely). Wherever he runs, House Speaker John Boehner’s “buddy” will almost surely have the financial backing of the NRCC.

Share any thoughts about the 2012 Congressional races in Iowa in this thread. Braley posted a diary here today about a bill he introduced to reduce the deficit, “end the unnecessary giveaways to Big Oil and provide incentives for renewable fuel producers to expand business and develop new technologies.” A couple of weeks ago, Braley and Latham tangled over legislation that might affect Iowa’s ethanol industry.

UPDATE: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will headline a fundraiser for Boswell’s campaign later this month at Roxanne Conlin’s home in Des Moines.

The U.S. House approved a continuing resolution to fund the federal government through September 30 by a 235 to 189 vote at 4:40 am Saturday morning. The bill contains about $61.5 billion in spending cuts; it “would kill more than 100 [federal] programs and cut funding for hundreds more.” The roll call shows remarkable party unity; all but three House Republicans voted for the bill, and every Democrat present voted against it. Iowa’s representatives voted along the usual party lines.

Much of the language in this continuing resolution will never become law. President Barack Obama has already threatened to veto the House bill, and the Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate is working on its own continuing resolution with roughly $25 billion to $41 billion in spending cuts. Some signs point toward a federal government shutdown, but House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan says House Republicans are not seeking that outcome. Quinn Bowman and Linda Scott further note:

To make time for the negotiations between the two chambers, yet another short term [continuing resolution] might need to be passed – which brings up another wrinkle: as time passes and the fiscal year gets shorter and shorter, Republicans set on cutting billions from the rest of the year’s budget will have a smaller pie to slice as money is spent.

Many House Democrats denounced the Republican budget cuts, but I didn’t see any of them acknowledge the failure to pass 2011 budget bills when Democrats still controlled both chambers of Congress. U.S. Senate Republicans blocked the Democratic omnibus spending bill during the lame-duck session in December, setting the stage for the current budget brinksmanship. None of these fiscal 2011 spending cuts would be on the table if Congress had passed budget bills on time last year.

After the jump I’ve posted the five Iowa House representatives’ statements on the House continuing resolution for fiscal year 2011. All include themes we are likely to hear during the 2012 Congressional campaigns. Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01), Dave Loebsack (IA-02) and Leonard Boswell (IA-03) embraced the principle of reducing government spending, but argued that the GOP plan would eliminate jobs here and undermine the national economic recovery. I noticed that Boswell is holding a roundtable discussion about transportation on February 22; expect him to warn of the dire consequences of proposed GOP spending cuts.

Braley’s comment on the continuing resolution warned that the proposal “will kill thousands of jobs in Iowa’s ethanol industry.” In that vein, I’ve also enclosed below his statement from February 16, touting an amendment he proposed to “safeguard the Renewable Fuel Standard.” The Environmental Protection Agency issued its final rule on the Renewable Fuel Standard earlier this month. Braley asserts that the continuing resolution blocks the EPA “from setting renewable fuel standards for 2012,” and industry groups are worried. House leaders ruled Braley’s amendment out of order, and Republican Tom Latham (IA-04) argued that the language prohibiting the EPA from regulating greenhouse gases would not affect the ethanol industry in any way. At The Iowa Republican blog, Craig Robinson says Braley “didn’t understand what he was talking about,” while Bleeding Heartland user SamuelJKirkwood claims here that Latham was misinformed or ignoring the facts. If that portion of the continuing resolution becomes law, we’ll find out later this year who was correct (either ethanol industry jobs will disappear or they won’t). Iowans are likely to hear more about this issue during the 2012 campaign, especially if the new map throws Braley and Latham into the same district.

Latham’s statement on the continuing resolution praised Congress for starting down “the road less traveled,” passing “some of the biggest spending cuts in the history of Congress.” He did some sleight of hand: “I joined a majority of my colleagues […] to vote in favor of cutting $100 billion in federal spending over the president’s funding request for the current fiscal year.” Jamie Dupree explains,

As for the budget cuts in this bill, Republicans persisted in calling this a cut of over $100 billion – but that figure is misleading, as it compares the bill’s spending levels to President Obama’s budget from last year, which was never enacted by the Congress.

It’s worth noting that Latham didn’t stand with the most ambitious House GOP axe-wielders. He was among 92 Republicans who joined Democrats to reject an amendment containing $22 billion more in cuts. Without elaborating, Latham described that proposal as “not thoughtful.” (As opposed to, say, zeroing out federal support for the Public Broadcasting Service or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change–very thoughtful!)

The statement from Republican Steve King (IA-05) focused on his own successful amendments to the continuing resolution, which prohibit the use of federal funding “to implement and enforce ObamaCare.” King has consistently been one of the loudest voices in the House for repealing or otherwise blocking the health insurance reform law approved last March. Incidentally, unlike Latham, King voted for that amendment proposing to cut an additional $22 billion from current-year spending.

I haven’t seen any statement from Senator Chuck Grassley regarding the House GOP’s spending cut plans. Democratic Senator Tom Harkin has been on a tear for days, blasting how the House continuing resolution would affect health care in Iowa, employment and training in Iowa, the Social Security Administration in Iowa, education in Iowa, and so on.

Share any thoughts about the federal budget or the political debate over spending cuts in this thread.

President Barack Obama presented his $3.73 trillion budget proposal for fiscal year 2012 yesterday. I had a post in progress highlighting some good ideas from the proposal, like more investments in high-speed rail and clean energy programs, and reducing taxpayer subsidies for the oil and gas industries. There are bad ideas too, such as a pathetically small “cut” of $78 billion for defense spending over 10 years. The word “cut” misleads here because we’re talking about a slightly smaller rate of growth for the defense budget. Our military spending skyrocketed during the last decade and should be reduced substantially if Washington officials are serious about reducing the deficit.

The moral failure of Obama’s budget becomes clear when you look at the $400 billion in cuts he proposes for non-defense discretionary spending (which is half as large a portion of the budget pie as the military). Many of those cuts will hurt the vulnerable: less money for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program and some student aid programs, to name a couple of egregious examples. Obama also wants a “bipartisan” conversation about “strengthening” Social Security, and Washington bipartisanship on Social Security is sure to harm working people and future retirees.

Since the Republican-controlled House of Representatives won’t enact the president’s spending plans, the budget document is important mainly as a sign of Obama’s priorities and political calculations going into this year’s negotiations with Congress.

Speaking of political calculations, I was struck by Representative Bruce Braley’s statement on the president’s draft budget document–so much that I shifted gears on this post. Braley’s comments were another sign of a noticeable change in tone since he won a third term in Iowa’s first Congressional district. During the last Congress, Braley’s policy statements often emphasized the importance of public investments. In the past two months, he has he put deficit hawkishness front and center. Several examples are after the jump, along with background putting Braley’s new rhetorical style in political context.

The House of Representatives passed an extension of three PATRIOT Act provisions yesterday by a vote of 275 to 144. The roll call shows that Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) voted for the bill, as did all but 27 members of their caucus. Leonard Boswell (IA-03) was among 65 Democrats voting for the extensions, while Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) voted with the majority of the Democratic caucus against the bill.

Iowa’s representatives voted the same way last week when a similar measure failed to win the two-thirds majority needed for passage under special House rules.

Open Congress summarized the bill as follows:

Extends three provisions of the USA PATRIOT Act that are set to expire on February, 28, 2011. They include the authority for “roving” wiretaps that allows the government to monitor computers that may occasionally be used by suspected terrorists, the “tangible records provision” that requires banks, telecoms and libraries to hand over any customer information the government requests without informing the customer, and the “lone wolf” provision allowing the government to track international terrorist groups. These would be extended straight up — i.e. no reforms — and would expire again under the bill on December 8, 2011.

According to the Washington Post, senators “are debating three competing proposals that would either permanently extend the [PATRIOT Act] provisions or extend them through 2013.”

UPDATE: The U.S. Senate approved a three-month extension for controversial PATRIOT Act provisions on February 15 by a vote of 86 to 12. Senator Chuck Grassley voted yes, as did all but two of his Republican colleagues. Senator Tom Harkin was among ten members of the Democratic caucus to vote no (roll call). Harkin’s office did not issue a statement on this vote and did not respond to my request for comment, so I don’t know whether he is against all efforts to extend those controversial PATRIOT Act provisions, or whether he would support Senator Pat Leahy’s bill to extend the provisions through 2013with “additional safeguards to the act which would provide for increased oversight of U.S. Intelligence gathering tools.” Grassley has introduced a rival Senate bill that would permanently extend the government surveillance powers.  

County-level population numbers from the 2010 Census came out a couple days ago, and I've been trying to draw a map aimed at getting the population of each district as close to the ideal of 761,589 as possible while still retaining some degree of compactness. (Obviously, more compact districts could be drawn if one is willing to have a greater degree of variance in population.)  Here's the best I've done so far:

Steve Deace has resigned from WHO-AM radio, and February 11 will be his last broadcast of “Deace in the Afternoon,” station manager Van Harden informed employees today.

Harden told employees of WHO-AM in Des Moines that Deace said he and his family had been talking about resigning for some time, and “finally felt lead to make a change.”

“While he does not have another position to which he is going, he has had the ear and interest of many politicians and political campaigns seeking his strategic advice, and he says there is a possibility he may be doing some consulting,” the e-mail said. “While this came as a surprise to us, we at WHO, and Steve, want all to know this is a very friendly parting, so much so that Steve says he may be  able to make himself available occasionally to do some fill-in work for us if needed.”

Des Moines Cityview weekly published a good feature on Deace last year, chronicling his competitive nature, the evolution of his Christian faith and his path from sports reporting to hosting a political talk show. Craig Robinson of The Iowa Republican blog credits Deace with helping Mike Huckabee “crush” Mitt Romney in counties that make up the WHO listening area. Similarly, Deace’s loud and frequent support for Bob Vander Plaats boosted the candidate’s showing against Terry Branstad in central Iowa during last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary. (I have to believe Branstad will be relieved to hear Deace is going off the air.)

Two weeks ago, Deace decided at the last minute to seek the position of Polk County Republican chair. According to Robinson, Deace posted on Facebook yesterday “that his next campaign might be for Republican National Committeeman or the State Senate.” The talk show host has been and remains a vocal critic of Iowa Senate Minority leader Paul McKinley (for instance: “Introducing the Paul McKinley Award for gutless, dishonest, and ineffective leadership!”). Iowa’s current elected Republican National Committeeman is Steve Scheffler, the head of the Iowa Christian Alliance whom Deace has called the “least trustworthy & most gutless person in Iowa politics.”

I wonder whom WHO will put in the drive-time slot and whether the new host will rival morning host Jan Mickelson in the outrageous comments department. One thing is certain: whoever gets the job will be wooed relentlessly by Republican presidential hopefuls. WHO has a large conservative listening audience.

UPDATE: A press release announcing Deace’s departure is after the jump. He says he hopes to publish a book this year, and he isn’t ruling out politics or a return to broadcasting someday. He and his wife plan to stay in Iowa: “We look forward to seeing how we will have the privilege to fear God, tell the truth and make money in the future.”

The news release says Deace lives in West Des Moines, so if he runs for the state Senate he presumably would face Pat Ward in a GOP primary, depending on what the new map looks like.

SECOND UPDATE: Deace on Twitter: “Just in case you were wondering, almost nothing in the Iowa Republican.com piece about my departure is true, except the spelling of my name.”

THIRD UPDATE: In this video, Deace talks about his reasons for leaving WHO and emphasizes that his split with the radio station was amicable. He also says that although it wasn’t an easy decision, he knows it was the right one, and he has “slept like a Calvinist at night” since he and his wife decided to pursue new challenges. After saying he felt he needed to take a chance and try something different at this point in his life, Deace added (around the 5:45 mark of the video), “I think a lot of guys, regardless of whether or not you agree with my belief system, you know, if you pee standing up like I do, I think you probably understand what I’m talking about.”

A bill to extend parts of the PATRIOT Act fell seven votes short of passage in the House of Representatives yesterday. A summary at OpenCongress.org explains that this bill

Extends three provisions of the USA PATRIOT Act that are set to expire on February, 28, 2011. They include the authority for “roving” wiretaps that allows the government to monitor computers that may occasionally be used by suspected terrorists, the “tangible records provision” that requires banks, telecoms and libraries to hand over any customer information the government requests without informing the customer, and the “lone wolf” provision allowing the government to track international terrorist groups. These would be extended straight up — i.e. no reforms — and would expire again under the bill on December 8, 2011.

Although 277 House members voted for the bill and only 148 opposed it, the measure failed because it had been brought to the floor under special rules that limit debate but require a two-thirds majority. The roll call shows that 67 Democrats voted with the majority of the Republican caucus in favor of the PATRIOT Act extension, but 26 Republicans voted with most of the Democratic caucus against the bill.

Iowa Democrats Bruce Braley (IA-01) and Dave Loebsack (IA-02) voted no yesterday, while Democrat Leonard Boswell (IA-03) and Republicans Tom Latham (IA-04) and Steve King (IA-05) voted yes. In all likelihood this bill will pass later this month when House leaders bring it to the floor under normal rules, requiring only 218 yes votes to pass.

Boswell’s vote yesterday is consistent with his record in this area. He voted for the PATRIOT Act in 2001 and its extension in 2005. He also voted with most House Republicans on the controversial Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act in 2008. Last year, Boswell voted for another PATRIOT Act extension bill that Loebsack and Braley opposed.

If Boswell faces a Democratic primary challenge in the new third Congressional district in 2012, his voting record on government surveillance may become a campaign issue. During his 2008 primary race against Ed Fallon, Boswell temporarily changed his stand on the FISA Act. He reverted to his original position after winning the primary.

It’s been a while since the Bleeding Heartland community discussed a possible 2012 primary between Representative Leonard Boswell and Christie Vilsack. Everywhere I go in Polk County, Democrats are talking about this race, so I thought it’s time for a new thread on the subject.

Last week Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reported that Vilsack “has been meeting with top state labor leaders, party strategists and donors as she gauges support and maps out a potential House campaign.” A bunch of Iowa insiders and Vilsack loyalists told Isenstadt about the former first lady’s strengths as a candidate. She’s good on the stump, has high name recognition and could raise a lot of money quickly. She refused to comment for his article, but Boswell told Isenstadt that he has informed Vilsack “that he had no plans to retire and that he would run again in his Polk County political base.”

Most Polk County Democrats I’ve spoken to expect Vilsack to run against Boswell in the new third Congressional district rather than in the redrawn second district, likely to contain Vilsack’s hometown Mount Pleasant. I would be surprised to see her run against Dave Loebsack in IA-02, but it could happen if the new IA-03 has a strong Republican tilt (say, containing lots of counties to the south and west of Polk but not Democratic-leaning Story, Marshall and Jasper counties). In that case, a primary against Loebsack could be more appealing than a general election against Tom Latham. I don’t have a good sense of the activist base’s commitment to Loebsack in IA-02, so I hope Bleeding Heartland readers who live in the area will weigh in. I believe many activists in IA-03 are ready for a change and would support a new candidate in a primary against Boswell.

Vilsack would be a much tougher opponent for Boswell than Ed Fallon was in 2008. The entire Democratic establishment and most allied groups like organized labor supported Boswell against Fallon. Some Democratic activists thought Fallon was unelectable or refused to consider supporting him because he had endorsed Ralph Nader’s presidential campaign in 2000. In addition, Fallon was unable to match the incumbent in fundraising.

Christie Vilsack has none of Fallon’s baggage and should have no trouble raising enough money to make the race competitive. She may even raise more than Boswell, who had just $65,276 in his campaign account at the end of 2010. (No word on how much Boswell raised at his big campaign fundraiser last month, featuring Senator Tom Harkin.) Although Boswell has a good record on women’s issues, many activists would be excited about making Vilsack the first Iowa woman to go to Congress.

During the 2008 primary, Boswell’s campaign kept Fallon on the defensive, questioning his ethics and slamming his record on ethanol and meth. The Nader trump card was played again and again. Boswell is good at “winning ugly,” as he showed last year against Brad Zaun. But I don’t see how he goes hard negative against Vilsack in a primary. My sense is that would backfire.

What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? Who would have the edge in a Boswell-Vilsack primary? How bad would the IA-03 map have to be to send Vilsack running against Loebsack on more friendly Democratic turf?

UPDATE: On February 3 Boswell announced the hiring of Julie Stauch as his Iowa chief of staff, beginning in March. (Sally Bowzer recently retired from the position.) Stauch is a veteran Iowa political operative and managed Boswell’s 2002 re-election campaign. In 2004, she managed Lois Murphy’s unsuccessful challenge to a Republican Congressional incumbent in Pennsylvania. In 2006, she managed Mazie Hirono’s successful Congressional bid in Hawaii. Most recently, Stauch has been chief public affairs officer for Planned Parenthood of the Heartland.

FEBRUARY 4 UPDATE: Senator Harkin seems to be trying to discourage Vilsack:

“I don’t see that happening,” Harkin says. […]

“Look, I have great respect for Christie Vilsack. I’ve known [her] a long time,” Harkin says.  “Since I’m so heaviy into education, here’s someone who has been in education all her life, so I have a lot of respect for her and her abilities. She has a lot of talent and a lot of support in the state of Iowa, but I do not see a primary with her and Congressman Boswell.”

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty visited Iowa again over the weekend. He worked the room at a Christian bookstore in Ankeny before addressing a crowd of 200 at the Waukee Area Chamber of Commerce annual dinner in West Des Moines. Pawlenty claims he will decide whether to run for president in March or April, but it seems obvious that he’s running. Not only has he visited Iowa seven times in 15 months, his Iowa political action committee gave nearly $110,000 to Iowa GOP candidates and organizations supporting Republican causes in 2010.

After the jump I catch up on recent news about Pawlenty and other Republicans who may compete in the Iowa caucuses.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich plans to announce by March 1 whether he will run for president in 2012, and he’s already got one endorsement in hand: Iowa House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer.

Background and first thoughts about Upmeyer’s support and Gingrich’s presidential prospects are after the jump.

Tom Latham (IA-04) is Iowa’s longest-serving current member of the House of Representatives, but he has kept a low profile for most of his 16 years in Congress. You don’t see him on television or hear him on the radio nearly as often as his Republican colleague Steve King (IA-05). According to statistical analysis by the GovTrack website, Latham is a rank-and-file Republican who has sponsored few major bills.  

Last Friday, Latham stepped out of character to introduce broad-ranging health care reform legislation. A few thoughts about the substance and strategy behind this move are after the jump.

A third poll this month finds former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with an early lead among Iowans likely to participate in the 2012 Republican caucuses. James Q. Lynch brought the latest poll to my attention. Strategic National surveyed 410 Republican Iowa caucus-goers on January 18 about their preferences for the next presidential campaign. Huckabee led the field with 27.5 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 18.5 percent, 17.6 percent undecided, 12.4 percent for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, 12.2 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 4.4 percent for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, 3.7 percent for Representative Michele Bachmann, 1.95 percent for Senator John Thune, just under 1 percent for former Senator Rick Santorum, and 0.24 percent for Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour.

Strategic National has worked for various Republican candidates, but I know nothing about the Michigan-based consulting firm as a pollster. I wonder whether “410 Republican Iowa caucus voting answers” means 410 people who said they will go to the GOP caucuses in 2012, or 410 people who have caucused in the past, or whether some other likely voter screen was used.

Earlier this month, Public Policy Polling and Neighborhood Research both found Huckabee leading Iowa Republican caucus-goers, with Romney in second place.

My hunch is that Huckabee won’t run for president in 2012, for reasons I discussed here. Also, his 2008 campaign manager Chip Saltsman just took a job on the Hill, although Saltsman says he would be available if Huckabee runs for president again.

If Huckabee decides to challenge Obama, he’ll probably get in the race late. Iowa caucus-goers aren’t known for rewarding late starters, but Huckabee already has high name recognition here. In addition, a large portion of GOP caucus-goers have a conservative evangelical orientation. Strategic National’s poll found that nearly 68 percent of respondents said the earth was created in six days, and 45 percent agreed that the earth is about 10,000 years old.