A few Iowa legislative predictions

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

Some things are hard to predict. Why is my cell phone obsolete after a month? Which Hawkeye quarterback will play Saturday? Will the Stranger Things cast be on Medicare before it returns to Netflix, and which cabinet position will Donald Trump give to Dr. Phil?

Other things are easy to predict. A match between a 58-year-old biting-boxer and a 27-year-old YouTuber will always feature dancing and a few scripted punches. If you’re a male over age 60 on Facebook, and a 20-something woman with a revealing neckline says your posts are fascinating, she’s scamming you. 

The most predictable thing: Iowa’s ruling trifecta, led by a governor desperate to get her MAGA creds back, will ram extreme public education bills through the legislature next year.

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Background on Janice Weiner, the new Iowa Senate Democratic leader

State Senator Janice Weiner will be the new leader of Iowa Senate Democrats, replacing State Senator Pam Jochum, who did not seek re-election this year.

Weiner “grew up in a politically aware family in Coralville” and was a career Foreign Services officer with the U.S. State Department before moving back to Iowa in 2015. She represents Iowa Senate district 45, the chamber’s bluest district, covering Iowa City and University Heights in Johnson County. She first ran for the legislature in 2018, finishing second to Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary for a Senate district covering Coralville. She won a seat on the Iowa City council in 2019 and ran for the legislature again in 2022, when long-serving State Senator Joe Bolkcom retired.

Weiner is known for the well-researched comments she has often delivered during Iowa Senate committee meetings or floor debate.

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Buy an EV in 2024

Jon Muller is a semi-retired policy analyst and energy consultant.

I’ve been looking to buy an EV for a long time. This week, I bought a 2022 Chevy Bolt EUV with 21,000 miles. It has about five more years of battery warranty. EV Tax credits are not likely to survive the new year. The primary beneficiaries of the end of EV tax credits will be people who bought them before January 1, 2025.

First, the specifics. The vehicle cost about $21,000. I received a $4,000 tax credit, which was taken off the price of the vehicle. More on the tax rules later in the piece. The net cost of the vehicle to me was about $17,000. The original new price was about $35,000.

I evaluated the total cost of ownership and factored in the impact of no future EV subsidies.

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A new job for Matt Whitaker—and a win for Joni Ernst

Continuing his pattern of selecting unqualified loyalists for prestigious jobs, President-elect Donald Trump announced on November 20 that he will name former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker as U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

In a written statement, Trump described Whitaker as “a strong warrior and loyal Patriot, who will ensure the United States’ interests are advanced and defended. Matt will strengthen relationships with our NATO Allies, and stand firm in the face of threats to Peace and Stability – He will put AMERICA FIRST.”

Whitaker has no foreign policy or diplomatic background. He served as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Iowa during George W. Bush’s presidency, and held several roles in the Justice Department during the Trump administration. For several months after the 2018 general election, Whitaker served (unconstitutionally) as acting U.S. attorney general. The New York Times reported in 2020 that during that period, Whitaker blocked a probe of “a state-owned Turkish bank suspected of violating U.S. sanctions law by funneling billions of dollars of gold and cash to Iran.”

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Iowa wildflower Wednesday: Cutleaf grapefern

Diane Porter of Fairfield first published this post on My Gaia, an email newsletter “about getting to know nature” and “giving her a helping hand in our own backyards.” Diane also maintains the Birdwatching Dot Com website and bird blog.

Rising above the dead leaves and grasses, a golden wand swept upward in the woods. It could easily be overlooked. It made me think of some slender animal, unfamiliar, perhaps mythical, standing on its hind legs to look in wonder at where it had found itself.

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Top Iowa Republicans smear Ann Selzer

Ann Selzer is stepping back from polling elections after conducting the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register for the last 27 years, she announced on November 17.

Top Iowa Republicans reacted by accusing Selzer of “skewing” her numbers or publishing “fake news polling”—all because her final Iowa Poll was way off the mark.

The attacks on Selzer—not from MAGA randos, but from the heart of the GOP establishment—reflect a broader Republican strategy to discredit mainstream media outlets like the Des Moines Register. They also validate unhinged behavior like President-elect Donald Trump’s call for Selzer to be criminally investigated.

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EPA puts major rivers on Iowa's impaired waters list

Pam Mackey Taylor is the Director of the Iowa Chapter of the Sierra Club.

The U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently notified the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR) that several Iowa rivers which are used for drinking water need to be put on the impaired waters list—also called the 303(d) list—because they are polluted with nitrate and nitrite. Nitrate and nitrite are toxic to humans. 

The affected rivers are the Cedar River, Des Moines River, Iowa River, Raccoon River, and South Skunk River. There were numerous water samples exceeding the federal water quality standard for surface waters used for drinking water. 

This development is significant, because it means DNR will have to take actions to reduce the nitrates and nitrates in these rivers in order to protect drinking water. With these rivers on the impaired waters list, the DNR can no longer ignore the continuing pollution of these waterways with nitrate and nitrite. 

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Centerville school board learns important lesson on secrecy

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

Earlier this month, I bumped into an Appanoose County woman I have known for several years. She thanked me and the nonprofit organization I manage for shining the spotlight on the actions of Centerville Community School District leaders.

This mother told me I was responsible for her spending part of a recent evening listening to the recording of a closed meeting of the Centerville school board that had just been made public by order of a judge. 

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How mid-sized cities became Iowa Democrats' biggest problem

Sixth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

The 2024 elections could hardly have gone worse for Iowa Democrats. Donald Trump carried the state by more than 13 points—a larger margin than Ronald Reagan managed here in either of his campaigns, and the largest winning margin for any presidential candidate in Iowa since Richard Nixon in 1972. The GOP swept the Congressional races for the second straight cycle and expanded their lopsided majorities in the legislature.

Support for Democrats has eroded in Iowa communities of all sizes—from large metro areas like Scott County (which voted for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time since 1984) to rural counties that were always red, but now routinely deliver more than 70 percent of the vote to GOP candidates.

This post highlights the growing problem for Democrats in Iowa’s mid-sized cities. I focus on eleven counties where Democratic candidates performed well in the recent past, but now trail Republicans in state and federal races.

Changing political trends in mid-sized cities explain why Democrats will have smaller contingents in the Iowa House and Senate than at any time since 1970. Voters in six of these counties also saved U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks from a strong challenge by Democrat Christina Bohannan in the first Congressional district.

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The Democratic message in an era of fear, anger, and self-interest

Tom Walton is an attorney in Dallas County.

An analysis of any political defeat must start with the message—what did you say to voters about why they should vote for you, and how did you say it? When you’re shut out of every branch of government, the only thing you have left is your message.

When commentators have focused on the Democratic losing message in 2024, they criticized many things, including “performative ‘wokeness’—the in-group messaging used by hyper-online and overeducated progressives” and “the stale politics of identity.” Too much about abortion—not enough about how hard it was for folks to just get by.

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Don't take candy from pandering politicians

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

One of our first warnings for children is, “Don’t take candy from strangers.” Iowans need to remember that lesson when politicians offer their version of candy. It seems so sweet, but bitter truth lurks behind.

When Governor Kim Reynolds tells us what she is going to do, Iowans should believe her. She’s shown she’s not shy about getting her way. We’re a one-party state with no checks or balances, and that one party just received another mandate from voters. Legislators may tinker around the edges, but the governor gets what she wants, unless the public protest demonstrates the mandate was a mirage.

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Project 2025 is coming for our wetlands

Dani Replogle is a staff attorney with the national advocacy group Food & Water Watch.

The Midwest’s iconic prairie potholes and other wetlands across the nation are under attack. A politically motivated lawsuit targeting the popular “Swampbuster” provision of the 1985 Farm Bill aims to erode a policy that has protected wetlands and supported farmers for nearly four decades. The case–CTM Holdings, LLC v. U.S. Department of Agriculture–is now pending before the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Iowa.

From cleaning water and providing wildlife habitat to mitigating droughts and flooding, wetlands perform a panoply of ecosystem services that benefit human health and safety. As the impacts of climate change intensify over the coming years, farmers and rural communities stand to benefit immensely from wetlands protected by Swampbuster. That’s why a group of sustainable agriculture groups including Food & Water Watch, Iowa Farmers Union, Iowa Environmental Council, and Dakota Rural Action have moved to intervene in the lawsuit that will decide the program’s fate. 

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Miller-Meeks expects "tough road" for House Republicans in 2026

U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has not officially been re-elected in Iowa’s first Congressional district, where Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan is seeking a recount in all 20 counties. But a message to fellow House Republicans indicates the IA-01 incumbent is already worried about the “tough road” facing members from swing districts during the 2026 election cycle.

Miller-Meeks failed in her bid to become House Conference secretary, the sixth-ranking GOP leadership position. It’s not clear how many Republicans supported her on November 13, when she finished third of three candidates on the first ballot. Caucus members then elected Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana over Mark Alford of Missouri. Both represent safe GOP districts.

A “Dear colleague” letter Miller-Meeks circulated on November 12—enclosed in full below—warned Republicans will struggle to expand their majority without including members from “battleground districts” in the party’s leadership.

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Iowa wildflower Wednesday: Sassafras

Lora Conrad lives on a small farm in Van Buren County.

Sassafras.

One of my favorite smaller trees, Sassafras albidum, is considered native to Iowa. However, it has been found in the wild only in one or two counties along the Mississippi River, one of which is Lee, adjacent to Van Buren where I set out two in my yard.

Sassafras is prevalent across the southeast and northeast, including adjacent Missouri and Illinois. It is a member of the Laurel family. The origin of the name is believed to be a mispronunciation by 16th century European explorers of the botanical family Saxifrage. Here is a map showing its native areas from BONAP:

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Joni Ernst out of Senate GOP leadership

For the first time in six years, Iowa’s junior Senator Joni Ernst will not have a position on the leadership team of U.S. Senate Republicans.

On November 13, members of the GOP caucus chose Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas over Ernst for Senate Republican Conference chair, the third-ranking leadership position. According to Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News, the vote was 35 to 18.

ERNST HAD JOINED LEADERSHIP IN HER FIRST TERM

First elected in 2014, Ernst joined GOP leadership shortly after the 2018 elections, when she competed against Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska for the fifth-ranking leadership position. She moved up to the fourth-ranking role after the 2022 elections.

Cotton was considered the favorite for conference chair going into the November 13 leadership vote, in part because he has a better relationship with President-elect Donald Trump. Cotton was on Trump’s short list for vice president earlier this year and was one of just seven people to get a speaking slot at all of the last three Republican National Conventions. Ernst spoke during prime time at the RNC in 2016 and 2020 but was snubbed this year—possibly because even though she did not endorse a presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses, she was widely perceived to favor Nikki Haley. Ernst didn’t endorse Trump until March 6—the same day Haley ended her presidential campaign.

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Iowa House, Senate Republicans stick with leadership teams

Republican lawmakers re-elected their party’s top leaders in the Iowa House and Senate on November 12 after increasing their already large majorities in both chambers.

With recounts likely in a few races, Republicans are on track to hold a 67 to 33 majority in the Iowa House (a net gain of three seats) and a 35 to 15 majority in the Senate (a net gain of one seat). Those are the largest contingents for the majority party in either chamber for more than 50 years.

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Mixed messages from Bob Vander Plaats on the ballot box and revival

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

I read the op-ed Bob Vander Plaats wrote for the Des Moines Register last week. It’s glowingly referenced on the Facebook page of his organization, The FAMiLY Leader.

I remember Vander Plaats when he got his knickers in a twist because the Iowa Supreme Court decided the Iowa Constitution’s equal protection clause applied to gay and lesbian people. The court unanimously held in the Varnum v. Brien decision from 2009 that Iowa’s “Defense of Marriage Act” was unconstitutional. The ruling paved the way for same-sex couples to solemnize their relationships under Iowa’s marriage laws.

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The muted impact of CO2 pipeline politics in Iowa's 2024 general election

Fifth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Matthew P. Thornburg is an associate professor at Misericordia University who studies elections. His mother’s side of the family hails from Greene and O’Brien counties, and he maintains close ties to Iowa and its politics.

In precincts lying in the path of the Summit Pipeline, Randy Feenstra underperformed the rest of his district slightly. However, most voters there and elsewhere in the fourth Congressional district remained straight ticket Republicans. Much of Feenstra’s mild underperformance arose from voters in O’Brien County, home county of his Republican primary opponent Kevin Virgil.

Carbon dioxide pipelines remain the issue Iowa Republicans wish would go away. While most political issues in the state are subsumed into the greater red vs. blue polarization of the country—where Republicans in Iowa enjoy the advantage–CO2  pipelines create an intraparty split between the Iowa GOP establishment and some in the party’s conservative wing.

Ground zero for that tension is Iowa’s fourth Congressional district, where CO2 pipelines were a prominent issue in both the Republican primary and general election.

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Overachievers and underachievers in Iowa's 2024 races for Congress

Fourth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections. This post has been updated with certified results as of December 2.

As ticket-splitting has declined in recent election cycles, few Iowa candidates have managed to win where the other party has a big advantage at the top of the ticket. So it was in Iowa’s 2024 Congressional races: former President Donald Trump outpolled Vice President Kamala Harris in all four U.S. House districts, which helped GOP incumbents hold off their Democratic opponents.

But one challenger massively outperformed Harris, and Trump barely pulled one underachieving incumbent over the line.

Election analyst Drew Savicki was first to publish the 2024 presidential vote and swing in Iowa’s U.S. House districts. I later confirmed his calculations, using unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State.

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A hard day's night

Bill Bumgarner is a retired former health care executive from northwest Iowa who worked
in hospital management for 41 years, predominantly in the state of Iowa.

The American people have decided to entrust Donald Trump with their present and their future for the next four years.

That’s how elections work. That’s democracy.

Voters have empowered the president-elect to seek whatever policy objectives he chooses to pursue. Americans should support Trump when his policies make sense. We should oppose him vigorously when his intent is not consistent with our values.

That’s democracy, too.

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