I forgot to put up this year’s primary election prediction contest earlier this week, but better late than never. To enter, post your answers to the twelve questions after the jump as a comment in this thread sometime before 7 am central time on Tuesday, June 3. It’s fine to change your mind about some or all of your answers, as long as you post a comment with your new predictions before the deadline.
Only comments posted in this thread will be valid contest entries. Predictions submitted by e-mail or twitter will not be considered. Please try to answer every question, even if it’s just a wild guess. We’re all guessing anyway, since few polls have been published about these races.
The winner receives no cash or other prizes–just bragging rights in the Bleeding Heartland community. Can someone stop ModerateIADem from “three-peating”? He won both the 2010 and the 2012 primary election prediction contests.
1. How many Republicans will cast ballots statewide in the five-way primary for U.S. Senate? Keep in mind that Democrats and no-party voters may change their registrations on June 3 in order to vote in the GOP primary. For reference, just under 230,000 ballots were cast in the 2010 three-way GOP primary for governor. The winner on this question will be the person whose guess is closest to the actual turnout, whether high or low. (This isn’t like The Price Is Right, where you have to be close without going over the mark.)
2. What percentage of the vote will each of the five Republicans seeking the U.S. Senate nomination (Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben, and Matt Whitaker) receive in the primary? UPDATE: The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll by Selzer & Co, published on June 1, shows Ernst with 36 percent support, Jacobs 18 percent, undecided 16 percent, Whitaker 13 percent, Clovis 11 percent, and Schaben 2 percent.
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and Tom Hoefling receive in the GOP primary for governor?
4. What percentage of the vote will each of the five Democrats seeking the nomination in IA-01 (Swati Dandekar, Anesa Kajtazovic, Pat Murphy, Dave O’Brien, and Monica Vernon) receive in the primary?
5. What percentage of the vote will each of the three Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-01 (Rod Blum, Gail Boliver, Steve Rathje) receive in the primary?
6. What percentage of the vote will each of the three Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-02 (Mark Lofgren, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Matthew Waldren) receive in the primary?
7. What percentage of the vote will each of the six Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-03 (Robert Cramer, Joe Grandanette, Matt Schultz, Monte Shaw, David Young, and Brad Zaun) receive in the primary?
8. Iowa candidates need to win at least 35 percent of the primary vote to win a nomination outright. Which of the following races will have the nomination decided at a special convention: IA-Sen Republican primary, IA-01 Democratic primary, and/or IA-03 Republican primary?
9. (may not be relevant depending on the June 3 vote) Who will win the IA-Sen GOP nomination if it goes to a statewide convention?
10. (may not be relevant depending on the June 3 vote) Who will win the IA-01 Democratic nomination if it goes to a district convention?
11. (may not be relevant depending on the June 3 vote) Who will win the IA-03 GOP nomination if it goes to a district convention?
12. Will any Iowa House or Senate incumbent in either party lose to a primary challenger? If so, name the person or people who will suffer the fate of Iowa House Majority Whip Erik Helland in 2012. The official candidate list (pdf) includes all the incumbents facing primary challengers.
19 Comments
Predictions
1. 320,000
2. Ernst-33 Jacobs-29 Clovis-21 Whitaker-14 Schaben-3
3. Branstad-88 Hoefling-12
4 Murphy-31 Vernon-23 Dandekar-21 Anesa-14 O’Brien-11
5. Blum-63 Rathje-30 Boliver-7
6. MMM-48 Lofgren-36 Waldren-16
7. Zaun-25 Schultz-20 Shaw-16 Cramer-15 Young-13 Joe G-1
8. All races
9. Ernst
10. Murphy
11. Shaw
12. No, but Quimbach is going to come close to losing IMO.
moderateiadem Sat 31 May 5:27 PM
Re: Quirmbach - why?
While I see nothing offensive about Cynthia Paschen – she’s articulate, she obviously knows media, and she knows fundraising – her campaign also doesn’t articulate a real reason for voting for her over Herman. I see she’s got some Ames key notables publicly endorsing her. Paschen stresses her education experience, which has been Quirmbach’s signature issue, especially post-secondary. Is she alluding that she’d be more effective?
That all said, Herman Quirmbach’s not even really running a primary campaign. Is that all?
idiosynchronic Sat 31 May 6:57 PM
Bingo
Yes, her argument is that she would be more effective and just less abrasive in her approach. I felt the need to pick a race just for fun and based upon what I have read that may be the race to watch. I obviously don’t have any inside information on the contest, given my spelling error. LOL!
moderateiadem Sat 31 May 7:39 PM
turnout will be so low
on the Democratic side in Ames, with no competitive primaries for IA-Gov, IA-Sen or IA-04. If Paschen can get several hundred friends to vote for her, who knows? But I agree with ModerateIADem, no incumbents will lose their primaries.
She’s not running against Quirmbach based on issues. She is saying she’ll be better at coalition building because of her civility.
desmoinesdem Sun 1 Jun 10:14 AM
*rolls eyes*
I knew Quirmbach as an acquaintance in his first campaign in ’95. He and his family are Iowa Nice, but Herman gets riled up by stubborn stupid. Between teaching massive Econ 101 lectures & serving in the Iowa Senate, I’d be crabby too.
I love the nice people of Ames, even though I don’t live there anymore, but I’m thinking they’re not being very realistic about the current Senate and state politics.
idiosynchronic Sun 1 Jun 11:15 AM
Predictions
1. 287,000
2. Ernst 34. Jacobs 27. Clovis 18. Whitaker 17. Schaben 4
3. Branstad 91. Hoefling 9
4. Murphy. 30. Vernon 25. O’Brien 23. Kajtozovich 19. Dandekar 3
5. Blum 48. Rather 35. Boliver 17
6. Miller-Meeks 45. Lofgren 40 Waldren 15
7. Schultz 22. Zaun 22 Young 21. Shaw 20. Cramer 10. Grandanette 5
8. IASenR, IA1D, IA3R
9 Ernst
10. Murphy
11. Zaun
12. Seng
lltwing Sat 31 May 6:50 PM
And the winner is...
1. 200,000
2. Clovis 30%, Ernst 45%, Jacobs 18%, Schaben 2%, Whitaker- 5
3. Branstad 75%, Hoefling – 3%, 22% will skip this race
4. Dandekar – 2%, Kajtozovic 3%, Murphy 31 , O’Brien 2%, Vernon 62%, 15% will skip this race
5. pass, no idea
6. pass, no idea
7. Cramer 2%, Grandanette 1%, Schultz 28%, Shaw 32%, Young – 10%, Zaun 20%, 17 will skip this race
8.IA 3 Republican primary will need to go to convention – the other two will not go to convention
9. Clovis
10. Vernon
11. This is tough! Zaun is too lazy to have done the organizing work for this effort; the same might be said of Schultz, although Pottawattamie County will help Schultz. David Young might just surprise at a convention as he likely is the only one who will have done the prep work for it. For me it comes down to guessing between Young and Shaw. If Shaw has the most votes, they may decide to go with him just for that reason. Otherwise Young.
12. Pass, not informed on those races.
julie-stauch Sun 1 Jun 12:06 PM
No need to watch the returns - results and expert commentary here !
1.292,793
2.Ernst 37% (be careful, you’ll shoot your eye out), Jacobs 29%(remember? he laid you off) Yosemite Sam 17% (love him), Whitaker 14% (he’s no Dallas Clark),Schaben 3% (props to him for a reality check on same sex marriage)
3.Who cares? But let’s play: Terry 93% the other guy (no, not Jack, the other, other guy, the Republican) 7%
4.Old White Guy Murph 37%, Vonica Mernon 23% Anesa 21% (sorry, John Deeth) O’Brien 15% (I loved the 80’s too) Swati 4%(you should never have gone there)
5.Blum 52% Rathje 40% Bolliver 8% (sorry no snark here. Just don’t care)
6.MM 49% Lofgren 38% Waldren 13% (again, don’t care)
7.Brad 27% (hope he’s not packin’), Schultz 20% (he and Jim Gibbons will be watching the returns at home), Monte 20% (got his own ‘ethanol blend’ for election night), Young 18% (Tuesday night will make HIM disappear), Cramer 14% (election night is a bridge to nowhere), Mr. G 1%
8. IA 3 what a field !
9. It’s Joni Joni Joni all the way.
10. Murph
11. Monte will take care of the convention as well as he takes care of his family.
12. Remember, you heard it here first, take it to the bank, a stone cold lock: Jake Highfill
rockm Sun 1 Jun 3:31 PM
I forgot
that Highfill has competition in the primary. You may be right on that one.
desmoinesdem Sun 1 Jun 6:51 PM
my guesses
1. Statewide turnout for the GOP primary: 210,000 Should be higher given the number of competitive races, though.
2. Ernst 40 percent, Clovis 22 percent, Jacobs 20 percent, Whitaker 16 percent, Schaben 2 percent
3. Branstad 85 percent, Hoefling 15. I don’t think that number reflects real supporters of Hoefling, just a protest vote.
4. Murphy 38 percent, Vernon 22 percent, Kajtazovic 20 percent, Dandekar 13 percent, O’Brien 7 percent
5. Blum almost won the 2012 primary against better funded competition. He takes this one in a walk: Blum 60 percent, Rathje 32 percent, Boliver 8 percent
6. Miller-Meeks took 50 percent of the vote in a four-way primary where her opponents were all running tv ads. I think she will crush it with 65 percent to 30 percent for Lofgren and 5 percent for Waldren.
7. Zaun 31 percent, Cramer 21 percent, Schultz 19 percent, Shaw 15 percent, Young 11 percent, Grandanette 3 percent
8. I see the IA-03 GOP primary as the only race that will go to a convention.
9. Ernst
10. Murphy
11. I think several ballots will be needed to determine the nominee, and Shaw will be the last man standing as the one with the fewest enemies/detractors.
12. I would have said Josh Byrnes, the Iowa House’s only pro-marriage equality, pro-Medicaid expansion, and pro-gas tax hike Republican. But to my amazement, he doesn’t have a primary challenger! So I’m guessing no incumbents will lose in the primaries this year. In my dream world, GOP State Senator Jack Whitver would lose to the guy whose top issue is water quality, and GOP State Representative Walt Rogers would lose to the tea party guy.
desmoinesdem Sun 1 Jun 6:49 PM
My predictions
1. How many Republicans will cast ballots statewide in the five-way primary for U.S. Senate?
205,000
2. What percentage of the vote will each of the five Republicans seeking the U.S. Senate nomination receive in the primary?
Ernst: 42%
Jacobs: 24%
Whitaker: 15%
Clovis: 11%
Schaben: 2% (Maybe)
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and Tom Hoefling receive in the GOP primary for governor?
Branstad: 92%
Hoefling: 6%
Other: 2%
4. What percentage of the vote will each of the five Democrats seeking the nomination in IA-01 receive in the primary?
I honestly don’t know. I think Pat Murphy will win the most votes, but not sure he’ll break 35%.
5. What percentage of the vote will each of the three Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-01 receive in the primary?
Blum: 56%
Rathje: 32%
Boliver: 10%
Other: 2%
6. What percentage of the vote will each of the three Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-02 receive in the primary?
MMM: 60%
Lofgren: 25%
Waldren: 15%
7. What percentage of the vote will each of the six Republicans seeking the nomination in IA-03 receive in the primary?
Cramer: 12%
Grandanette: 2%
Schultz: 25%
Shaw: 13%
Young: 18%
Zaun: 30%
8. Which races will have the nomination decided at a special convention?
IA01 (Dem)
IA03 (GOP)
9. Who will win the IA-Sen GOP nomination if it goes to a statewide convention?
N/A
10. Who will win the IA-01 Democratic nomination if it goes to a district convention?
Probably Murphy. Anesa if I had my way. (MORE YOUNG PEOPLE SHOULD RUN)
11. Who will win the IA-03 GOP nomination if it goes to a district convention?
Shultz. And it will be dirty.
12. Will any Iowa House or Senate incumbent in either party lose to a primary challenger?
Nope. I’m happy to be wrong on that, though.
greghauenstein Mon 2 Jun 1:59 PM
Predictions 2014 Primary
1) 163,000 In all due respect, I am seeing some WAY high
primary turnout predictions for Republicans. I
guess this is because of the number of candidates running. And it could be correct. I just don’t see it. I don’t see it in the absentee requests and I don’t see Republicans getting that much more excited tomorrow about voting – and they have good reason not to get excited.
2) Ernst 34%, Jacobs 26%, Clovis 18%, Whittaker 17%, Schaben 5%. Watch turnout. If I am wrong and turnout is high Ernst will get +35%. If not, we are heading to convention – especially if Clovis gets the votes out of NW IA I think he will.
3) Murphy 35%, Vernon 21%, Kajtazovic 19%, Dandekar 14%, O’Brien 11%. Pat will “cheese thru” – it will be close and not pretty but he has money, demographics, and geography on his side.
4)Bumstead 88% Hoefling 12%
5) Blum 51%, Rathje 35%, Boliver 14%
6) Miller-Meeks 50%, Lofgren 36%, Waldren 14%
7) What a Grade A Cluster F–k – both in number and quality of candidates. Here is my best guess:
Zaun 25%, Schultz 23%, Shaw 21%, Young 16%, Cramer 11% Grandette 4%
8) IA (R) Senate I think will go to convention (I don’t think that one is as clear cut as everyone thinks.) Also IA-03 (R) will go to convention.
9) Ernst
10) Murphy
11) Zaun
12) I am going to stick my neck out and say that no incumbents will lose their primaries tomorrow.
mark-r-schweitzer Mon 2 Jun 4:05 PM
you have the lowest turnout prediction
and you may be right, from the sound of things today.
desmoinesdem Tue 3 Jun 3:01 PM
My WAGs
1. 200,000
2.
Ernst: 43%
Jacobs: 25%
Whitaker: 14%
Clovis: 12%
Schaben: 4%
3.
Branstad: 85%
Hoefling: 10%
4.
Dandekar 6% for 6-pack. I hope she is firmly rejected as the kind of corporate Dem the party does not need more of.
Kajtazovic 31%
Murphy 32%
O’Brien 15%
Vernon 15%
5.
Blum: 45%
Rathje: 35%
Boliver: 20%
6.
Meeks: 50%
Lofgren: 25%
Waldren: 15%
7.
Cramer: 14%
Grandanette: 3%
Schultz: 25%
Shaw: 10%
Young: 15%
Zaun: 30%
8.
Neither
9.
Not happening, but whoever is the most nuts, in the eyes of the GOP primary voters.
10.
Probably Murphy
11.
Schultz
12.
Doubtful, alas.
2laneia Mon 2 Jun 4:16 PM
Predictions
1. 253,828
2. JE 39%, MJ 25%, SC 16%, MW 16%, SS 4%
3. TB 93%, TH 3%
4. PM 36%, MV 20%, SD 18%, AK 17%, DO 9%
5. Blum 55, Rathje 25, Boliver 16
6. Miller-Meeks 50. Lofgren 33 Waldren 17
7. Schultz 26. Zaun 24 Shaw 20. Young 14. Cramer 14. Grandanette 4
8. IA3R
9 Ernst
10. Murphy
11. Shaw
12. No
ghbraves Tue 3 Jun 12:26 AM
wild guesses
1. 240000
2. Ernst 38 Jacobs 22 Clovis 16 Whitaker 16 Schaben 5
3. Branstad 84 Hoefling 15
4. Murphy 30 Kajtozovich 27 Vernon 20 O’Brien 20 Dandekar 3
5. Blum 52 Rathje 30 Boliver 18
6. Miller-Meeks 42 Lofgren 42 Waldren 16
7. Schultz 25 Zaun 25 Young 18 Shaw 15 Cramer 12 Grandanette 5
8. IA1D, IA3R
9 Ernst
10. Murphy
11. Zaun
12. No
johannes Tue 3 Jun 6:50 AM
Cochran loses in Mississippi
1. 265,000
2. Ernst 42, Jacobs 24, Clovis 22, Whitaker 9, Scaben 3
3. TB 85, Hoefling 15?
4. Murphy 30, Kajtazovic 25, Vernon 20, O’Brien 15, Dandekar 10
5. Blum 65, Rathje 25, Boliver 10
6. MMM 50, Lofgren 40, Waldren 10
7. Zaun 37, Shaw 19, Cramer 15, Young 15, Schultz 11, Mr. G 3
8. Both House races
9. Ernst
10. Kajtazovic
11. Shaw
12. Highfill goes from the house caucus back to the house party
pretzelgraf Tue 3 Jun 10:21 AM
that MS-Sen race is insane
No idea what would happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cochran pull through.
desmoinesdem Tue 3 Jun 3:00 PM
Prediction
1. 219,000
2. #IAsen
Joni Ernst: 40%
Mark Jacobs: 24%
Sam Clovis: 23%
Matt Whitaker 12%
Scott Schaben: 1%
3. Governor Terry Branstad 99%
4. #IA01 DEM
Pat Murphy: 45%
Monica Vernon: 20%
Swati Dandekar: 16%
Anesa Kajtazovic: 15%
Dave O’Brien: 4%
5. #IA01 GOP
Rod Blum: 85%
Gail Boliver: 5%
Steve Rathje: 10%
6. #IA02 GOP
Mariannette Miller-Meeks: 90%
Mark Lofgren 8%
Matthew Waldren 2%
7. #IA03 GOP
Brad Zaun: 29%
Matt Schultz: 21%
Monte Shaw: 20%
Robert Cramer: 16%
David Young: 13%
Joe Grandanette: 1%
8. #IA03 only
9. n/a, but if it does Joni.
10. n/a but if it does Pat Murphy
11. Monte Shaw
12. No.
mrscarletw Tue 3 Jun 3:15 PM