Mitt Romney may have wrongly been declared the winner of the Iowa caucuses due to a tabulation error, according to an exclusive KCCI-TV report today.
KCCI spoke to Edward True, a Ron Paul supporter who helped count the votes from his precinct in Moulton (Appanoose County).
True said at his 53-person caucus at the Garrett Memorial Library, Romney received two votes. According to the Iowa Republican Party’s website, True’s precinct cast 22 votes for Romney.
“This is huge,” True said. “It essentially changes who won.”
A spokeswoman with the Iowa Republican Party said True is not a precinct captain and he’s not a county chairperson so he has no business talking about election results. She also said the party would not be giving interviews about possible discrepancies until the caucus vote is certified.
I was thinking on Wednesday that with 1,774 precincts counting paper ballots, a minor tabulation error could be enough to erase Romney’s eight-vote margin over Rick Santorum. Not that it matters much who “won,” since this isn’t a winner-take-all situation. In effect, Santorum and Romney tied.
For county-level results, this map at a site run by the Cedar Rapids Gazette and KCRG-TV is user-friendly. Santorum won a plurality of votes in the following 62 counties: Adair, Appanoose, Audubon, Benton, Boone, Buchanan, Butler, Calhoun, Carroll, Cass, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Davis, Delaware, Des Moines, Emmet, Floyd, Franklin, Greene, Guthrie, Grundy, Hamilton, Hancock, Hardin, Harrison, Henry, Howard, Humboldt, Ida, Iowa, Jasper, Keokuk, Kossuth, Lucas, Lyon, Madison, Mahaska, Marion, Marshall, Mills, Monona, Monroe, Montgomery, O’Brien, Osceola, Page, Palo Alto, Pocahontas, Ringgold, Sac, Shelby, Sioux, Tama, Wapello, Warren, Wayne, Webster, Winnebago, Woodbury, Worth, and Wright.
Romney won a plurality of votes in the following 17 counties: Bremer, Cerro Gordo, Clinton, Dallas, Dickinson, Dubuque, Fayette, Fremont, Johnson, Jones, Linn, Muscatine, Plymouth, Polk, Pottawattamie, Scott, and Story.
Paul won a plurality of votes in the following 17 counties: Adams, Allamakee, Black Hawk, Buena Vista, Cedar, Chickasaw, Clarke, Clayton, Decatur, Jackson, Jefferson, Lee, Mitchell, Poweshiek, Van Buren, Washington, and Winneshiek.
Perry won a plurality of votes in Union and Taylor Counties.
Santorum and Paul tied in Louisa County. In many counties only a handful of votes separated first place from second place.
UPDATE: Speaking to Fox News, Santorum indicated that 21 votes were erroneously added to his own total, meaning that Romney would still be slightly ahead after all errors were fixed.
Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn told KCCI’s Kevin Cooney that he’s confident the final certified results from Appanoose County will not change the winner of the caucuses.
I would not be surprised if other small errors are uncovered in precincts around Iowa.
SECOND UPDATE: The Iowa GOP released this statement on the evening of January 5.
“Iowa GOP rules provide for a two-week certification process for each of the 1,774 precincts. The Iowa GOP will announce the final, certified results of the 2012 Iowa Causes following this process. Out of respect to the candidates involved, party officials we will not respond to every rumor, innuendo or allegation during the two week process. That said, Iowa GOP officials have been in contact with Appanoose County Republican officials tonight and do not have any reason to believe the final, certified results of Appanoose County will change the outcome of Tuesday’s vote.”
SATURDAY UPDATE: The Des Moines Register quoted Appanoose County GOP Chair Lyle Brinegar as saying, “We stand by the figures that were presented by the Moulton precinct caucus.”
Moulton resident Edward True has signed an affidavit saying that he helped count the vote at the Garrett Memorial Library in Moulton and that the precinct had two votes for Romney, not 22, as reported online by the state GOP.
Brinegar says True is correct.
“I’m not disputing what Ed True said,” Brinegar said.
14 Comments
Wow...
So very embarrassing if true……..this is a shocking report with potentially severe ramifications……
mirage Thu 5 Jan 8:58 PM
I wouldn't say "shocking"
When hundreds of people are reporting results from the precincts, it’s not hard to see how one number from one location could be written down incorrectly. I’m sure this kind of tabulation error has happened in every caucus year, but we’ve never had such a narrow margin between the top two candidates.
Systematic inflation of one candidate’s vote total across many precincts would shock me.
desmoinesdem Thu 5 Jan 9:01 PM
my first thought
from Tuesday night
“I used to say three things could kill the caucuses: a Screw Iowa candidate winning the presidency, an ice storm, or an ADA (or military) lawsuit demanding an absentee ballot. So… what does a dead heat result do? I don’t care whether Santorum or Mitt wins; I care about 2016… And there’s not really a recount process for what’s really just a straw poll at a party meeting.”
Later that night:
“One typo in one spreadsheet, one transposed digit, could flip this thing as the GOP checks the paperwork. By that point the national press and candidates will be in Nevada and South Carolina and it won’t matter.”
Or maybe it will.
A real election has the recourse of a recount. A privately run “election” doesn’t. These results belong to the RPI, and the courts have given political parties wide latitude in their nomination process and internal activities.
And in fairness, having worked on real elections for many years, it’s not RPI’s fault that the result was close. And it’s only a little bit RPI’s fault that a volunteer made a mistake.
But national press won’t see that distinction, they’ll just say “Iowa screwed up an election (sic).” No doubt they’ll invite Stephen Bloom on to critique our IQs.
I’m not feeling any schadenfreude for Matt Strawn and his people now. I’m hoping they get it right. Because my first place in line in the 2016 Democratic race depends on the RPI getting it right.
jdeeth Thu 5 Jan 9:40 PM
even with a few tabulation errors
the Iowa Republican results more closely reflect caucus-goers’ sentiments than Iowa Democratic caucus results ever have done or ever will do.
We don’t know how many people preferred Dodd, Biden or Richardson over the big three from 2008, and we don’t know whether Edwards or Clinton had more people standing in their corners after realignment. Democrats play games with delegate math that can severely distort the preferences of the real, live people in the room.
desmoinesdem Thu 5 Jan 9:52 PM
That's right.
I completely agree.
But the unelected New Hampshire Secretary of State says that if we have a hard body count that’s linked to a binding delegate count, that makes it an election not a caucus, and he’ll vote on Halloween if he has to to be the first “election.”
And the national press will side with him because they hate hate HATE flying out to Des Moines and driving two hours to Polebean Center, when Manchester is a short commuter flight from NY and DC and everything else is within 30 miles.
We can have a body count and absentee ballots.
Or we can be first.
And understand that if we’re not first, we’ll never see a candidate again. No more county party barbecues with five candidates. No more living room Q and A, No more extended conversations. Maybe an airport rally, and a handshake if you can bully to the front of the rope line. We’ll be voting in a meaningless June primary between Presumptive Nominee and Lyndon LaRouche.
But at least we’ll have a hard body count for LaRouche.
Your call as to what you think is more important. Me, I think the important part of the caucuses is the year before more than the night itself.
jdeeth Thu 5 Jan 10:28 PM
the unelected NH SoS
has no problem with the Iowa Republican format, which is basically a straw poll. I would rather adopt the GOP procedures for the Democratic caucus. I don’t understand why that would be a deal-breaker for NH when the guy doesn’t have a problem with the Iowa GOP caucus.
desmoinesdem Thu 5 Jan 10:37 PM
So start with a meaningless vote...
then pick delegates how? All the JFK people say “yay we won” and go home, and the Harry Truman people who “lost” stay and elect the delegates? (Dead presidents used for pure neutrality) Because you know that happens at GOP caucuses, in fact I think they were supposed to talk about it at the Ron Paul training I got thrown out of.
jdeeth Thu 5 Jan 10:45 PM
how is that meaningless?
The paper ballots reflect the preferences of the people who showed up at the GOP precinct caucuses. Isn’t that what we want to know, which candidates Iowans support?
How is it meaningful when a Democratic caucus can allocate equal numbers of delegates to several candidates, even if some had significantly more supporters in the room than others?
Why are you so offended by the idea of diehards sticking around to elect county convention delegates after most people go home? It’s not as if the county delegates elected at Democratic precinct caucuses are bound to stick with their candidate at the county conventions.
desmoinesdem Thu 5 Jan 11:28 PM
misunderstood=meaningless
National press just doesn’t get that the IA GOP “vote” has NO CONNECTION to the delegate count. Good lord, I’m sitting at home at 1 AM caucus night sending corrective tweets out to national press who are trying to figure out “the delegate count.” Who won that? Ron Paul probably. The IA GOP result pretends to be something it’s not.
In any case you’re being clear about what you want. What I want is to stay first no matter what. Any major changes to process put first at risk IMHO.
The national press and large chunks of the national party hate us. Kos still hasn’t forgiven us for spiking Howard Dean and Carl Levin is just itching for any chance to topple us. Even former ally New Hampshire barely tolerates us. And don’t even get me started on Florida…
jdeeth Fri 6 Jan 1:18 AM
guilty as charged
I think that tabulated results from the first presidential nominating contest should reflect the sentiments of voters.
Additionally, I think that voters who want to participate in the first presidential nominating contest should not be excluded because they work the evening shift, or are housebound for any reason, or prefer not to state their political preferences in front of a room full of people.
Yes, I believe those principles are more important than you getting to see candidates on the ped mall or at the Hamburg Inn.
desmoinesdem Sat 7 Jan 10:01 AM
One more thing:
I got thrown out of the Ron Paul training.
jdeeth Fri 6 Jan 1:18 AM
and did I mention
that I got thrown out of the Ron Paul training? Because I really can’t say that enough. I got thrown out of the Ron Paul training.
jdeeth Thu 5 Jan 10:49 PM
You show up at a RP event wearing a friggin' beret?
Well, whaddya expect? I wore the NRA hat some jackwad shoved in my face at the Ames Straw Poll. They loved me.
iowanbybirth Mon 9 Jan 7:26 PM
Strawn says:
“Iowa GOP rules provide for a two-week certification process for each of the 1,774 precincts. The Iowa GOP will announce the final, certified results of the 2012 Iowa Causes following this process. Out of respect to the candidates involved, party officials we will not respond to every rumor, innuendo or allegation during the two week process. That said, Iowa GOP officials have been in contact with Appanoose County Republican officials tonight and do not have any reason to believe the final, certified results of Appanoose County will change the outcome of Tuesday’s vote.”
jdeeth Thu 5 Jan 10:39 PM