She took a lot of criticism from her fans who are female Hillary supporters (the gender issue), so that may be another reason why she is mum. I don't understand the dynamics of the Feb 5th states comprehensively, but I just don't think he can pull it out without her stature on the trail helping to balance against the Clintons.
My formula for Obama winning the Democratic nomination remains: Convincing SC win (%10) + Oprah campaigning before Feb 5th = Obama nominee.
I'll add to the formula, too. Blowout SC win (15%-25%) – Oprah campaigning before Feb 5th = a toss-up on Super Tuesday.
Close SC win (5% or less) – Oprah = improbable Obama nominee
Loss in SC (0%-5%) – Oprah = Living on a prayer
However,
Any reasonably positive result in SC (-3%-25%) + Oprah = Obama can make a comeback.
Finally, if Oprah somehow decided to campaign in SC and in Feb 5th states, then I think Obama wraps up the nomination on Super Tuesday.
Assumption: The female vote is absolutely critical to Obama's campaign. If he loses females he loses the nomination. Because of gender identity (and Hilary's ability to remind females of it), females will naturally vote for Hillary. Therefore, Obama needs a commanding female presence in his campaign.
I do not mean to say that he cannot win other ways, by, say, winning the Latino vote or overwhelmingly convincing the black population to vote for him (which is why if he blows Hillary out in SC, he can still win the nomination without Oprah), I just mean to say that I think Oprah's presence in his campaign would give him the bump he needs to win the nomination.
6 Comments
I was wondering the same thing
I would have thought she would be out there with him in some of the key February 5 states.
But do you really think Oprah was the key to Obama’s winning the women’s vote in Iowa? He and his staff had many months to work on that. Actually, most of the Obama precinct captains I know are women.
desmoinesdem Wed 23 Jan 2:01 PM
Actually,
I do think Oprah was crucial. The previous Iowa groundwork was essential, and the campaign put most of its money into that, but going forward he does not have that luxury. Oprah brings his message to a very large audience when she campaigns with him. She is well-respected by women and she does have the power to sway. How else do you counter both Hillary and Bill? Bill is just going to drag Obama into bad politics because that’s the only way they know how to win. It’s not based on ideas for them, it is based on raw political power. So, if you are battling ideas versus pure power seekers, you have to be able to counter not just with the attacks that the Clintons throw, but also be able to draw in people that would otherwise not come out to hear Obama speak. Oprah changes the scene. ha, perhaps Oprah doesn’t want to get into it now because Bill would probably rip her image apart. I am not saying Obama can’t win without Oprah, but you see all of the Bush/Rove tactics the Clintons are willing to pull that it is hard for Obama to maintain his message when he is always being sucker punched by the next distortion by Bill Clinton. What else do you do?
drinksgreentea Thu 24 Jan 12:35 PM
a Clinton supporter at MyDD
says that Oprah will lay low because caught a lot of flack from fans who were mad that she came out against a woman candidate. He provided no link, so I have no idea if that’s true.
desmoinesdem Thu 24 Jan 2:38 PM
I've heard
similar things. I don’t know if it’s true either. She has a lot to lose if she does campaign for him. Would the Clintons go so far to rip on her? I’m not so sure she would come out unscathed. I would hate to see such a prominent and good black leader lose what she has built. She could make a few appearances before Feb 5th in a few key states, but I’m not counting on much, if anything. Again, just hope.
drinksgreentea Fri 25 Jan 2:32 AM
the Clintons are not going to attack her publicly
They are not stupid. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if behind the scenes they tried to organize a lot of criticism of Oprah by fans.
desmoinesdem Fri 25 Jan 7:59 AM
Well
i could easily see them making ignorant comments alongside the behind the scenes undercutting tactics, especially if they leave Bill out there to play in the sandbox with the media. He’s like a little boy, loving the attention, while most people are skeptical why he even should be getting any attention. Last I checked he was a former President (and he said in the SC losing speech that he is in a post-political career), but he sure does not act as such. He is only post-political in name, not in reality. He couldn’t be more of a political figure at this time. Sorry, every time I hear the name Clinton I get this knee-jerk reaction to point out all the crap they try to pull.
drinksgreentea Sun 27 Jan 5:26 PM