One of the nearly universal assumptions being made right now about a speedy withdrawal/redeployment/whatever from Iraq is that it would leave the country in even more severe chaos than it is in now.  Leaving aside for a moment the fact that keeping a presence there has already proved itself a good way to consistently increase the level of violence in the country year after year after year, I think we should be skeptical of the idea that leaving will make things worse.

The source of my skepticism?  The Iraqi people.  According to the seemingly reputable World Public Opinion, 71% of Iraqis would like us out within a year.  If you take the Kurds out of that equation (fair since many of the redeployment proposals maintain a presence in northern Iraq to protect them), that goes up to something like eight in ten.  Are eight in ten Iraqis morons?  Do they prefer increased bloodshed?  Are they too simple a folk to understand the situation in their own country?  Or is their opinion correct that our presence provokes more violence than it quells?

The people who started peddling the “descent into chaos” line are the same ones who said that we would be greeted with bread and roses.  I think it is important that we carefully consider any of their assumptions, even ones that seem self-evident at first glance.