This table shows the same data, with counties listed in descending order by number of votes cast in the Congressional race.

One might ask, who cares what happened in last year’s race, when we have no idea how IA-03 will be configured for 2022 and beyond?

The Axne/Young results are still useful as a reference, because no matter how IA-03 is drawn, Polk County will be its population center.

IA-03 PROBABLY CAN’T GET WORSE FOR DEMOCRATS

Republicans have sometimes complained that Axne “only” won one of the district’s sixteen counties. They rarely acknowledge that more than half the district’s residents live in that county, which contains Des Moines and most of its suburbs. About 56 percent of ballots cast in last year’s IA-03 race came from Polk County.

Iowa’s constitution stipulates that “no county shall be divided in forming a congressional district.” Final 2020 census numbers won’t be available until the fall, but Polk County had about 490,000 residents in 2019. Each Iowa Congressional district will probably have roughly 790,000 residents. So on any new map, Polk County will contain the majority of Axne’s constituents.

As Evan Burger discussed in more depth here, state requirements on contiguity and compactness further limit how IA-03 could be shaped. The worst-case scenario for Democrats would be a toss-up district combining Polk County with many deep red rural counties to the south or southwest. Axne would be no worse off than she was in 2020. The Polk County Democrats and several neighborhood groups have extremely well-developed volunteer networks, which will be heavily engaged in supporting her re-election. Furthermore, Trump won’t be on the ballot to bring out low-propensity GOP-leaning voters in 2022.

In some configurations, IA-03 could become much more solid territory for Democrats. For instance, the next map might put Story County (containing the Ames area) in the same district as Polk, instead of the Republican-leaning Pottawattamie County (Council Bluffs area). Story was one of the six Iowa counties that voted for both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in the last presidential election. If that happens, House Democrats can probably stop worrying about Axne’s race.

One factor unrelated to redistricting could cut against the Democrat, though.

LIBERTARIANS A QUESTION MARK FOR 2022

To the endless frustration of Iowa Republicans, third-party candidates received more votes than the difference between Axne and Young in two straight elections. The GOP trifecta took one step toward solving that problem in 2019, enacting a law that required all candidates for state and federal offices to submit their nominating papers by the mid-March filing deadline. For many election cycles, independent or minor party candidates in Iowa had been able to file until sometime in late August.

As a result, IA-03 went from having six candidates on the ballot in 2018 to Axne, Young, and Libertarian Holder in 2020. Even so, Holder received more than twice as many votes in November as the margin between the Democratic and Republican nominees.

Last week, Republican lawmakers approved a wide-ranging new election bill, which Governor Kim Reynolds is expected to sign on March 4. Its most publicized provisions make early voting more difficult in many ways. But Senate File 413 also puts a bull’s eye on third-party or independent candidates seeking federal or statewide offices.

Holder needed to collect 375 signatures on nominating petitions to qualify for the 2020 general election ballot in IA-03. The new law will require U.S. House candidates not nominated in Democratic or Republican primaries to collect at least 1,726 signatures, including at least 47 signatures from each of at least one half of the Congressional district’s counties. That’s a tall order, especially since candidates will not be able to start collecting signatures until after Iowa’s new map is finalized–probably not before October.

Holder told Bleeding Heartland this week that he is considering litigation to challenge the higher bar for nominating petitions, in the event that Reynolds signs the election bill. But it’s extremely unlikely any lawsuit would be resolved before the filing deadline next March. If he can’t reduce the signature threshold, Holder plans to run for the Iowa House rather than the U.S. House in 2022.

Asked whether Libertarians plan to field another candidate in the redrawn IA-03, state party chair Mike Conner Jr. told Bleeding Heartland that the party has been urging Reynolds to veto Senate File 413, which it considers unconstitutional. That said, “We have also looked at recruitment and candidate/volunteer training to help us overcome this outrageous hurdle while a potential lawsuit goes through our courts.” Conner added that Libertarians “continue to fight for the voter choice and voting access for all of Iowa’s citizens.”

Any comments related to the third Congressional district are welcome in this thread.

Appendix: County-level results from the 2018 race between Cindy Axne and David Young

Table showing county-level IA-03 results in 2018. The counties are listed in descending order by number of votes cast in the Congressional race.