I’ve been feeling for months that in December, when undecided Iowans started making up their minds, there would be significant movement toward one of the second-tier candidates. Some politically active Democrats are not satisfied with any of the top-tier candidates and are willing to give underdogs a chance.
This diary is about how Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd are campaigning in Iowa, how I think they will do on January 3, and how their showing could affect John Edwards, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
A few other observations related to these candidates’ prospects can be found in How the Iowa caucuses work, part 8, which you may not have seen over the weekend.
Much more is after the jump.
Although Dodd, Biden and Richardson have differences in style, they are running similar campaigns in Iowa in several ways:
They are emphasizing their leadership and experience.
One message comes loud and clear throughout all three candidates’ stump speeches, advertisements and campaign literature: I am ready to be president. Go to their official websites, click on just about any television commercial or video clip, and you will see what I mean.
Here’s Dodd saying, “It’s time America had a president with the experience to lead”:
Campaigning in Iowa last Friday, Dodd talked about how we can’t afford to elect a president who needs “on-the-job training” and favorably contrasted his experience to that of Clinton and Obama.
Here’s Biden saying you don’t have to guess what he will do as president, you can look at what he’s already done:
Biden also ran a clever full-page ad in major Iowa newspapers quoting rival Democratic candidates saying, “Joe is right.”
Richardson has sent Iowa Democrats more direct-mail pieces than Dodd or Biden, and these depict him as the candidate with “the bold plans and experience to bring change to America.” Here is an excerpt from one recent mailer:
Bill Richardson Can Clean Up Bush’s Mess
It will take more than political posturing and crunching poll numbers to clean up the mess George W. Bush and Dick Cheney will leave behind
It’s going to take real leadership.
Bill Richardson is the one candidate with the bold plans and the tested experience to get results for America.
Richardson’s campaign has also produced a “2008 All-Star” card with Richardson holding a baseball and glove on one side, and this text on the back:
Career Highlights
Positions Played:
-Seven term Congressman
-UN Ambassador
-Energy Secretary
-Two term GovernorWins as Governor of New Mexico:
-Raised the Minimum Wage
-Up to 6th in the nation in job growth
–Balanced budget all 5 years in office
-Every child 5 and under has access to health care
-One of the nation’s “Greenest Governors”Saves: Richardson rescued US servicemen and hostages from Iraq, North Korea & Sudan.
BORN: 11/15/47
Honors: Four-time Nobel Peace Prize Nominee
“One of America’s Best Governors”
Inc. Magazine 10-3-2006
Iowans supporting one of these candidates are sometimes drawn to their qualifications generally (such as Richardson’s diplomatic and executive experience) and sometimes impressed by their leadership on a particular issue (such as Dodd’s attempt to filibuster the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act).
A related theme that all three candidates evoke is their ability to work with Republicans to get results. Richardson tells Iowans about programs he implemented as governor of New Mexico. Dodd talks about how he secured passage of the Family and Medical Leave Act. Biden talks about co-sponsoring bills on campaign finance reform and global warming decades ago. He also reminds Iowans that 75 senators have already approved the blueprint of his plan for Iraq. Which brings me to my next point:
The second-tier candidates have all highlighted their ability to deal with Iraq.
Dodd fought hard against the Iraq War supplemental funding bill that Congress approved in May. He and Richardson have castigated the top-tier candidates for refusing to promise at one of the presidential debates that all U.S. troops would be out of Iraq by 2013.
In his stump speech, Biden invariably depicts himself as the only candidate with a plan for Iraq. Others are merely proposing tactical measures, Biden says–voters need to ask them, what do we do after withdrawing troops to prevent Iraq from triggering a larger regional war?
Both Biden and Richardson have run television ads about Iraq, directing viewers to websites that explain their proposals in more detail. Here is one from Richardson:
Within the past few weeks, both Richardson and Biden have also sent Iowa Democrats direct-mail pieces with details about their Iraq plans.
Another similarity among these candidates is their claim to electability.
Almost every recent mailer from Richardson has prominently featured this quotation:
“Republicans will tell you privately that if the Democrats nominate Bill Richardson the election is over. They know they will lose to Bill Richardson.”
-Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for Politics, October 26, 2007
In some of Dodd’s television ads, including the one I embedded above, the candidate expresses confidence that he can beat the Republicans.
Biden alludes to electability in a different way. He loves to tell Iowans that he is eager to take on Rudy Giuliani. This language, from an e-mail Biden sent out earlier this month (sorry, no link), is typical:
I can’t wait to debate Rudy Giuliani.
Over the weekend, Rudy Giuliani attacked the Biden plan for a political solution in Iraq, “They’re saying, ‘We will divide the country.’ (The Iraqi government) has to decide to divide the country. We’re trying to create stability over there.”
I will eat Rudy Giuliani alive at a debate. […]
The former mayor never misses an opportunity to display how little he knows about foreign policy. My plan is to give regions in Iraq more control over their daily lives. It’s a way for states to share power with a central government and achieve a political solution to the chaos there and it was endorsed by a bipartisan majority of 75 Senators, both Republican and Democrat. We’ve already seen it play out — where local authorities have been given more control over their affairs, violence has gone down. Meanwhile, the Bush administration’s attempt to create a strong central government is still not working — for all the headlines the surge has created, we’re no closer to a political solution in Baghdad than we were when the surge began months ago.
Folks, we’ve seen how dangerous it is to elect a president who doesn’t understand how the world works. The last thing we need in the White House is four years of George W. Giuliani, or George W. Romney. Notice we haven’t heard a word about their plans to reach a political solution in Iraq.
I promise you, when I am the Democratic nominee next year, I will eat them alive at the debates.
My sense is that experience is the main draw for the second-tier candidates, rather than electability, but I’ve heard a few Richardson supporters say they think he’s the best guy to beat the Republicans.
That sums up the major themes of the Dodd, Biden and Richardson campaigns. What do these candidates have going for them as caucus night approaches?
Few Iowans have heard anything negative about them.
While Clinton, Obama and Edwards have traded barbs at various times in the past month or two, they haven’t made any kind of case against the second-tier candidates. On the contrary, they have sometimes gone out of their way to praise these candidates, probably hoping to be the second choice of their supporters.
Most undecided voters will make up their minds without hearing any reason not to caucus for Biden, Dodd or Richardson. People leaning toward one of them are often surprised if I say I don’t think Biden’s plan for Iraq would work, or if I mention that Richardson ran the whip on NAFTA in the U.S. House and supports a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, which would likely turn a recession into a depression. They haven’t heard those things from anyone else.
Moreover, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has put foreign policy concerns front and center in news coverage.
Media research on “priming” suggests that when news reports focus on a particular set of issues, voters are more likely to draw on those issues when deciding which candidate to support. This weekend I knocked on the door of a neighbor who was undecided a couple of weeks ago and is now Biden’s precinct captain. He told me that with what’s going on in Pakistan, Democrats need to nominate someone with foreign-policy experience.
My hunch is that the events in Pakistan will push quite a few Iowans into the Biden camp. For months he has been referring to instability in Pakistan in his stump speech. In the commercial I embedded above, which was on the air before Bhutto was assassinated, Biden says, “When Pakistan erupted in crisis, I spoke to Musharraf before Bush did.”
They are more accessible than the front-runners.
The top-tier candidates generally book large venues and take questions from a small percentage of the people who turn up. But many Iowans love to meet the candidates in a local restaurant or someone’s living room. A Biden supporter in my precinct told me that she saw each of the second-tier candidates more than once this year, but she didn’t even try to attend a Clinton or Obama event, because “they only have big rallies.” She did try to see Edwards, but left when he still wasn’t there 45 minutes after the scheduled appearance (ouch!).
Last month I invited neighbors to my house party for Edwards, featuring a field organizer for the Edwards campaign. Several people were disappointed to learn that the candidate would not be at the party.
In contrast, it’s easy to see Biden, Dodd and Richardson in a smaller setting. Two Biden supporters in my precinct were won over after hearing him speak at a local Irish bar. I went to house parties for Biden and Richardson on Thanksgiving weekend. The hosts’ houses were crammed so full that the firefighters for Dodd would probably have declared them a hazard.
The day I saw Richardson, he did a marathon tour of nine or ten house parties in the Des Moines area, and I heard that many of them were as packed as the one I attended.
Almost anyone who wants to ask the candidate a question can do so at this kind of event. I had no trouble asking Biden and Richardson a question, even though I had identified myself to campaign staff as an Edwards supporter when I signed in for those house parties.
They appeal to Iowans’ pride in giving all candidates a fair shake.
Richardson, Dodd and Biden all go out of their way to praise Iowans for giving the underdog a chance. For instance, here was Richardson over the weekend:
“I think you have a great opportunity to send a message to the national media and to the country that you think that this race shouldn’t be a coronation of two individuals,” the New Mexico governor said.
“It shouldn’t be just about who has the most money … or who is the biggest rock star or who has the best political pedigree. That’s not me,” Richardson said. “It should be about who can change this country.”
This was Biden in Sioux City yesterday:
“You read the paper all the time, ‘Biden’s the most qualified guy, but I just don’t think he can win the caucuses.’ Folks, the next person that says that to me …” he said. “I will be your nominee if you caucus for me.”
Some caucus-goers prefer to ignore the media favorites and the money race. They say things like, “I’m going with Richardson. He’s not going to win, but he’s the most qualified.” Or, “My guy has no chance. I’m caucusing for Biden.”
Walking my dog past a house with a huge Firefighters for Dodd sign, I saw the owner outside and waved, saying, “Dodd’s my second choice. I’m for Edwards, but I like Dodd.” He responded, “Well, I’ll see you on the third and change your mind.” Not likely! But I give him credit for not following the herd.
When I talk to an undecided voter who is considering a long-shot candidate, I never try to argue that they are wasting their time on someone who can’t go the distance. I am convinced that kind of argument would backfire.
Unfortunately for the second-tier candidates, huge obstacles stand between them and the surprisingly strong finish they are seeking.
The caucus system is their biggest problem by far.
The Iowa Democratic Party’s viability threshold is 15 percent in most precincts and even higher in many rural precincts. Candidates with less support than that cannot win any delegates in a precinct.
Three senior Iowa newsmen who are sympathetic to the second-tier candidates recently published an op-ed in the New York Times on “Iowa’s Undemocratic Caucuses.” In particular, they lamented the fact that
it is possible that a second or third-tier candidate could garner a surprising 10 percent or 12 percent of the popular vote statewide and get zero delegates. (That’s because to be in the running for a delegate a candidate must have support from at least 15 percent of the people at a precinct caucus.) He or she may have done two or three times as well as expected among Iowa’s Democratic voters and get no recognition for it.
Compounding the problem for Dodd, Biden and Richardson, the top-tier candidates are well-liked in Iowa.
During the last presidential campaign, large numbers of Iowa Democrats found the front-runners (Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean) unacceptable choices. Earlier this year, I thought it was quite possible that one of the second-tier candidates would finish in the top three in Iowa.
However, since then Clinton and Obama have considerably strengthened their position among Iowa Democrats. Their massive fundraising advantage has allowed them to run far more television ads and assemble much larger field operations than any of the second-tier candidates can manage.
The bottom line is that most Democrats like at least one or two of the top three candidates.
Of course, some politically active Democrats are dissatisfied with all of the favorites to win Iowa. My unscientific observation is that these people tend to be educated, over 50 years old, and relatively well off economically (middle class or better).
If just one alternative candidate were running as the experienced leader with a plan for Iraq, the viability threshold might not be so daunting. But Dodd, Richardson and Biden are competing for the same niche.
While some Iowans like to support the underdog, the perception that Dodd, Biden and Richardson are far behind hurts them with other undecided voters. I have frequently heard comments like, “I would love to see Biden get it, but he’s not going to win.” A friend in my precinct, who works in a family business, is very attracted to Richardson because governors “know how to run an organization.” But when I mentioned that it sounded like he was planning to support Richardson, he said, “No, I’m not going to caucus for Richardson. That would just be a waste of my time.”
Recently I was trying to talk an acquaintance into considering Biden or Richardson, because I knew he strongly disliked Edwards and was not sold on either Clinton and Obama after seeing them both in person. He said something like, “You know, if there’s one guy I’d like to see as president, it would be Joe Biden, but he can’t make it.”
So, how will the second-tier candidates do on January 3?
I would bank on Dodd finishing sixth. He lacks enough first-choice support to be viable in very many precincts.
He is also unlucky in that more first responders than usual will be on duty the evening of January 3 because of the large number of Iowans who will congregate in public places. Dodd has been counting on his endorsement by the firefighters’ union to deliver a significant number of delegates.
I have been struggling to figure out who will finish fourth, Biden or Richardson.
For the past several weeks, the gang at Iowa Independent have put Biden fourth in their “power rankings,” on the grounds that he has momentum and is a stronger campaigner than Richardson. I am inclined to agree. I can’t emphasize enough how good Biden is at retail politics. Even I walked out of his house party thinking I’d like to help him get a delegate in my precinct if I could do it without taking a delegate away from Edwards.
If you don’t want to take my word for it, read this post by noneed4thneed, who saw Biden not long ago in Marshalltown, and this comment by kmbaya, who saw him at an event that also featured Edwards and Congressman Dave Loebsack. Key passage:
went in to event number 1 because, even though I’m thinking of caucusing for Edwards, had never seen or spoken with him. Surprised when Biden showed up and Kicked Ass. I was not particularly interested in him until tonight. Anyone who can talk so passionately about morality AND quote Irish poetry is very appealing to me.
Note to future presidential candidates: more than one Biden supporter has independently mentioned to me that they liked the poetry references. Biden has been quoting the Nobel prize winner Seamus Heaney all year in his stump speech.
Biden also has 16 endorsements from Iowa state legislators, not far behind the total for Obama (20) and Clinton (19), and ahead of Edwards (11), Dodd (3) and Richardson (1). He has a few newspaper endorsements, though the big one (Des Moines Register) got away from him. I am not aware of any Iowa newspapers backing Dodd or Richardson.
My voter contacts suggest that Biden is picking up more of the late deciders than Richardson. In some Iowa polls he has surpassed Richardson for fourth place.
Perhaps more important, Biden has a lot of support in some eastern Iowa communities:
Operatives for rival candidates say privately they’ve detected substantial pockets of support for Biden in some rural areas and in the ethnic, heavily Catholic industrial towns along the Mississippi River in eastern Iowa. Complicated caucus rules mean those pockets could produce enough delegates for Biden to have an impact.
Most of the counties that assign large numbers of state delegates are in eastern Iowa. That may give Biden the decisive edge over Richardson.
On the other hand, I would not be too surprised if Richardson finishes fourth in Iowa after all. He got a head start on the organizational front and has had most of his field offices up and running for months. He and Edwards are the only candidates to have campaigned in all 99 counties this year. He went into the final month with about twice as much support in the Iowa polls as Biden.
Not only that, several precinct captains in the Des Moines area have told me they are certain Richardson will be viable in their precincts. I have yet to hear any precinct captain say Biden will surely be viable in their neighborhoods, and my field organizer isn’t hearing that from the volunteers she works with either.
Richardson understands that he and Biden are competing for the same voters and has occasionally criticized his rival’s plan for Iraq. Speaking in Iowa City recently,
He says his Iraq plan is still feasible. “I have military experts who support it — we CAN get our troops out in a year with a strong diplomatic plan.” He contrasts his plan with Biden’s. “The plans of a partition need to be looked at, but partition hasn’t worked before. It didn’t work in India, it hasn’t worked in other places.”
The biggest problem for Richardson is his uneven performances in the debates and on the stump. On paper, he’s an extremely strong candidate, but he doesn’t always communicate as well as some others in our field. That, in turn, has undercut his claim to electability. My husband was very interested in Richardson in the spring but changed his mind after watching some of the early debates.
I should note that when I saw Richardson at the house party on Thanksgiving weekend, he was in good form. I would assume he made a strong impression on the undecided voters and leaners who attended. His performance was all the more impressive in light of the fact that he spoke at seven or eight house parties that day before the one I attended.
The more conservative, pro-gun Richardson seems like a better fit for western Iowa, and I expect him to finish ahead of Biden in a lot of those counties, although Biden has campaigned a lot in western Iowa too. But the bulk of the Democratic state delegates are not allocated to those counties.
Richardson has field offices in several towns with significant Latino populations, including Marshalltown and Muscatine. I have no idea how successful his campaign has been in mobilizing Latino supporters. Obama’s campaign has also been seeking support from Latinos in Iowa, and the state’s largest Spanish-language newspaper endorsed Obama.
Before ending this diary, I want to explore how the presence of Biden, Richardson and Dodd might affect the front-runners in Iowa. I have been trying to figure this out for months, and I can argue it any way. I’ll just lay out the possibilities, and you can decide what to believe.
How they hurt Edwards
I often read speculation by bloggers that Hillary would be the second choice of most Biden and Richardson supporters. The bloggers assume that Iowans supporting Biden and Richardson are establishment, DLC types, so would gravitate toward Clinton.
My voter contacts tell a totally different story. I believe Edwards stands to gain significantly more than Clinton or Obama from the second choices of Biden, Richardson and Dodd supporters. So where they are viable, they may be taking delegates away from Edwards.
The supporters of second-tier candidates seem to skew toward voters over 50. Edwards does well in that demographic too, but the others may be splitting the votes of older Iowans who don’t care for Hillary.
My sense is that Richardson does better among men than women. If Clinton and Obama hold a lead among women, as some polls suggest, Edwards will need to gain a larger share of the men to win Iowa.
How they help Edwards
If you look at the 2004 caucus results by county, you can see that Edwards did well in central Iowa but was beaten badly by Kerry in many of the delegate-rich counties in eastern and western Iowa (for instance, Dubuque, Scott, Woodbury, Pottawattamie, Clinton, Muscatine, Jackson).
All year I’ve been thinking that while Edwards needs to improve his standing in those counties, it’s more important for him not to have any one rival candidate dominate Iowa’s medium-sized cities as Kerry did.
If Biden racks up a lot of delegates in Dubuque, Davenport and other towns along the Mississippi River, while Richardson wins a bunch of delegates in the Council Bluffs and Sioux City areas, they could prevent Obama or Clinton from getting an edge on Edwards.
How they hurt Clinton
Supporters of second-tier candidates tend to be older voters, and many are looking for the most experienced candidate. Since Hillary is trying to position herself as more experienced than Obama or Edwards, they could be winning over Iowans who would otherwise back her. Not only that, Dodd has specifically challenged Hillary’s claim to experience during the final weeks of the campaign.
The second-tier candidates are all running as people who can work with Republicans to secure bipartisan support for their proposals. Whenever they mention the need to nominate someone who is not divisive, that is a not-so-subtle hint to Iowans that they’d better not nominate Hillary.
How they help Clinton
They may be helping to split the male vote, which increases her chance of winning Iowa by getting a plurality of women caucus-goers.
As I mentioned above, they are splitting the anybody-but-Hillary voters over age 50 and possibly keeping Edwards from winning that group by a large margin.
How they hurt Obama
Biden seems to be strongest in the eastern Iowa counties where Obama is supposed to benefit from the voters’ proximity to Illinois and exposure to Illinois television broadcasting.
Obama seems to do well among highly-educated, upscale voters, and the second-tier candidates may be taking some of those people away from him.
The long-shot candidates are all encouraging undecided voters to pick someone with extensive experience. Alluding to the fact that all the candidates have asked if he would serve as their secretary of state, Biden has asked rhetorically, “Do we really want to pick a president who isn’t qualified to be secretary of state?” In recent days, Dodd has specifically criticized Obama as too inexperienced.
Obama talks about the need to move past bitter partisanship in Washington, but he may not be able to corner that niche as long as the second-tier candidates are campaigning as people who can work with Republicans.
Dodd has made the news this year by leading the charge on defunding the war in Iraq and blocking the FISA bill. Obama has chosen not to lead those battles in the Senate. That may have hurt his standing among progressives.
While Obama has repeatedly reminded Iowans of his speech five years ago opposing the war in Iraq, Biden and Richardson are repeatedly reminding Iowans of their specific plans to get us out of Iraq. They could be splitting the votes of Iowans whose primary concern is ending the war, especially since Richardson emphasizes that he would not leave any residual troops in Iraq.
How they help Obama
Obama does much better among younger voters. Splitting the over-50 voters among five candidates has to be good for him.
By encouraging Iowans to pick someone who is not divisive and can work with Republicans, the second-tier candidates may be reinforcing Obama’s message against the more partisan candidates, Clinton and Edwards.
Like I said, I can argue this any way. But my gut feeling is that a remarkably strong finish by any of the second-tier candidates would hurt Edwards, help Clinton a little and help Obama a little more.
Thanks to those who read this long diary. I look forward to reading your comments.