Time for another Bleeding Heartland election prediction contest. To enter, post your guesses as comments in this thread before 7 am on Tuesday, November 4. Predictions submitted by e-mail or social media will not be considered. It’s ok to change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the deadline.
No money’s at stake here, just bragging rights like those enjoyed by Bleeding Heartland users ModerateIADem (twice), American007, Johannes, and tietack. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low.
Even if you have no idea, please try to take a stab at answering every question. We had no clear winner in this year’s primary election prediction contest; the best guessers on some races were way off on other races.
Minor-party or independent candidates are on the ballot for some races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. You can view the complete list of candidates for federal and state offices in Iowa here (pdf).
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2014 general election? For reference, 1,125,386 Iowans voted in the 2010 general election, and 1,044,459 Iowans voted in the 2006 general election.
2. What percentage of the vote will U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst receive? (keep in mind that four other candidates also appear on the ballot)
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and challenger Jack Hatch receive? (keep in mind that three other candidates also appear on the ballot)
4. What percentage of the vote will Pat Murphy and Rod Blum receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in IA-02?
6. What percentage of the vote will Staci Appel and David Young receive in IA-03? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
7. What percentage of the vote will Jim Mowrer and Steve King receive in IA-04?
8. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
10. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
11. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
12. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
13. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2015? (435 total) Currently there are 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and two vacancies.
14. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2015? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 55 Democrats (including the two independents who caucus with them) and 45 Republicans.
15. What percentage of the vote will Brad Anderson and Paul Pate receive in the Iowa secretary of state race? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
39 Comments
Prediction
1.) 1,300,000 Iowans will vote in the 2014 election.
2.) Joni Ernst: 49%, Bruce Braley: 48%
3.) Branstad: 57%, Hatch: 42%
4.) Murphy: 51%, Blum: 49%
5.) Loebsack: 54%, Miller-Meeks: 46%
6.) Young: 51%, Appel: 48%
7.) King: 58%, Mowrer, 42%
8.) 52 R, 48 D
9.) 26 D, 24 R
10.) IA-01
11.) SD 41
12.) KS-Sen
13.) 237 R, 195 D
14.) 52 R, 48 D
15.) 52% Pate, 47% Anderson
Hope I’m wrong, but feeling very pessimistic about this election. Follow me on twitter: chrismpage
chrismpage Thu 30 Oct 2:58 PM
Amendment
and I should amend these so they add up…
2) Ernst: 50, Braley 49
13) 240 R, 195 D
chrismpage Thu 30 Oct 3:02 PM
that was fast
Congrats on being the first to take the plunge.
I have two sets of guesses and haven’t decided yet whether to enter my optimistic or pessimistic scenario.
desmoinesdem Thu 30 Oct 4:28 PM
DHM1985 Prediction
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2014 general election? For reference, 1,125,386 Iowans voted in the 2010 general election, and 1,044,459 Iowans voted in the 2006 general election.
1,097,327
2. What percentage of the vote will U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst receive? (keep in mind that four other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Joni Ernst: 49.9
Bruce Braley: 47.2
Other: 2.9
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and challenger Jack Hatch receive? (keep in mind that three other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Terry Branstad: 56.6
Jack Hatch: 40.3
Other: 3.1
4. What percentage of the vote will Pat Murphy and Rod Blum receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
Rod Blum: 50.9
Pat Murphy: 49.1
5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in IA-02?
Dave Loebsack: 51.3
Mariannette Miller-Meeks: 48.7
6. What percentage of the vote will Staci Appel and David Young receive in IA-03? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
David Young: 48.9
Staci Appel: 48.0
Other: 3.1
7. What percentage of the vote will Jim Mowrer and Steve King receive in IA-04?
Steve King: 55.1
Jim Mowrer: 44.9
8. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
Republicans: 56
Democrats: 44
9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
Democrats: 27
Republicans: 23
10. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Third congressional
11. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Iowa House: Joe Riding vs. Zach Nunn
12. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
Alaska
13. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2015? (435 total) Currently there are 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and two vacancies.
244 Republicans, 191 Democrats
14. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2015? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 55 Democrats (including the two independents who caucus with them) and 45 Republicans.
52 Republican Caucus
48 Democratic Caucus
15. What percentage of the vote will Brad Anderson and Paul Pate receive in the Iowa secretary of state race? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Brad Anderson 49.7
Paul Pate: 47.3
Other: 3.0
dhm1985 Thu 30 Oct 3:13 PM
Swag's
1. , 1,250,000
2. Bruce 52 Mrs. Ernst 48
3 Terry 55 Hatch 44
4 Murphy 58 Blum 42
5 Loesbeck 59 MMM 41
6 Staci 51 Young 49
7 King 15 Mowrer 85 GO Jim!
8 D 52 R 48
9. 26D 24R
10 Appel V Young
11 No Idea on that one,
12 LA but Mary Landrieu pulls it out.
13 R 237 D 198 we add Appel as a pick up.
14 D52 R 48
15 Anderson 49 Pate 47
okoboji-mike Thu 30 Oct 9:49 PM
Prediction
Couldn’t decide between an aspirational prediction with the goal of putting positive vibes out into the universe or what I think is mostly likely to occur. I went with the latter.
1.1,350,000 will vote in the 2014 election
2.Braley: 47 Ernst: 49
3 Hatch: 42 Branstad: 56
4 Murphy: 52 Blum: 48
5 Loebsack: 54 Miller-Meeks: 46
6 Appel: 48 Young: 50
7 Mowrer: 46 King: 54
8 53R 47D (no change)
9. 27D 23R (D net one)
10 Appel vs. Young
11 Beall vs. Kraayenbrink
12 Alaska
13 238R 197D
14 51R 49D
15 Anderson: 49 Pate: 48
hdlnr2001 Fri 31 Oct 10:40 AM
if you find yourself feeling more optimistic
on Sunday or Monday, you can always amend your predictions.
desmoinesdem Fri 31 Oct 10:52 AM
Election Contest
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2014 general election? For reference, 1,125,386 Iowans voted in the 2010 general election, and 1,044,459 Iowans voted in the 2006 general election.
1,120,191
2. What percentage of the vote will U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst receive? (keep in mind that four other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Joni does the chicken dance, Bruce hits that trial lawyers’ drink cart and the Coordinate Campaign continues to hunt for missing absentee ballots
Joni Ernst: 49.4
Bruce Braley: 47.1
Others gets the rest
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and challenger Jack Hatch receive? (keep in mind that three other candidates also appear on the ballot)
We missed you, Tyler Olson, Janet Peterson, Pam Jochum
Terry Branstad: 56%
Jack Hatch: 42%
Others: 2%
4. What percentage of the vote will Pat Murphy and Rod Blum receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
Rod Blum: 51%
Pat Murphy: 49%
5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in IA-02?
MMM: Third time is NOT the charm. Please go away.
Dave Loebsack: 54%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks: 46%
6. What percentage of the vote will Staci Appel and David Young receive in IA-03? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
David Young: 50%
Staci Appel: 47%
Others 2%
7. What percentage of the vote will Jim Mowrer and Steve King receive in IA-04?
Steve King: 55%
Jim Mowrer: 45%
8. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
Extra Credit: Riding and Muhlbauer are out. McConkey (Council Bluffs) in. Gassman out, Grussing in in HD7 (Estherville). Ourth, Wood, Hanson and Lundby hang on. Dems lose Decorah seat (formerly held by Roger Thomas). Good runs by T Meyer (Sandy Salmon) and L Hubka (Josh Byrnes) but to no avail. Biggest disappointment: Kim Huckstadt v Brian Moore in Maquoketa.
Republicans: 56
Democrats: 44
9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
Goodbye and good riddance, Chickenman
Democrats: 27
Republicans: 23
10. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Congress 01
11. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Iowa House: Salmon-Meyer
12. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
Kansas
13. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2015? (435 total) Currently there are 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and two vacancies.
245 Republicans, 190Democrats
14. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2015? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 55 Democrats (including the two independents who caucus with them) and 45 Republicans.
51Republican Caucus
49 Democratic Caucus
15. What percentage of the vote will Brad Anderson and Paul Pate receive in the Iowa secretary of state race? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Brad Anderson 50
Paul Pate: 49
Other: 1
rockm Fri 31 Oct 11:16 AM
so many close Iowa House races
I appreciate that you stuck your neck out on specific contests.
desmoinesdem Fri 31 Oct 3:59 PM
Dyslexia
House races: I meant to write GOP 54 Dems 46
rockm Fri 31 Oct 4:45 PM
Prediction of Josyph (tentative):
1. 1,122,000.
2. Braley: 49.1
Ernst: 48.4
3. Hatch: 42.2
Branstad: 56.2
4. Murphy: 51.1
Blum: 47.6
5. Loebsack: 54.8
Miller-Meeks: 44.4
6. Appel: 48.9
Young: 49.3
7. King: 52.7
Mowrer: 45.8
8. R: 52 D: 48
9. R: 23 D 27
10. CD03
11. IA SD05
12. I’ll go out on a limb here and say Iowa, followed by Colorado.
13. 190 Democrats, 244 Republicans
14. Democrats: 49, Republicans: 49
15. Anderson: 49.1 Pate 47.8
josyph Fri 31 Oct 4:16 PM
Amendment to prediction
The following should supersede the original predictions above:
1: 1,222,222
4: Murphy: 52.5
Blum: 46.1
6: Appel: 49.2
Young: 49.0
All other selections remain unchanged
josyph Mon 3 Nov 5:06 PM
Prediction....
1.) 1,325,212 Iowans will vote in the 2014 election.
2.) Braley: 51%, Ernst: 48%
3.) Branstad: 53%, Hatch: 46%
4.) Murphy: 53%, Blum: 47%
5.) Loebsack: 54%, Miller-Meeks: 46%
6.) Young: 51%, Appel: 48%
7.) King: 53%, Mowrer, 47%
8.) 51 R, 49 D
9.) 27 D, 23 R
10.) SD-5
11.) IA-01
12.) KS-Sen
13.) 230 R, 202 D
14.) 49 R, 48 D, 3 I
15.) 54 Anderson, 46% Pate
purplefan1 Fri 31 Oct 4:44 PM
Prediction
1. 1,267,300 Iowans will cast ballots.
2. Joni Ernst 49.7%, Bruce Braley 48.9%, Others 1.4%
3. Terry Branstad 61.6%, Jack Hatch 35.4%, Jon Narcisse 2.1%, Others .9%
4. Rod Blum 51.2%, Pat Murphy 48.9%
5. Dave Loebsack 53.7%, Marrianette Miller-Meeks 45.3%, Others 1%
6. David Young 49.9%, Staci Appel 47.4%, Others 2.7%
7. Steve King 58.6%, Jim Mowrer 41.4%
8. Republicans 57, Democrats 43
9. Democrats 28, Republicans 22
10. Iowa 01
11. SD 39
12. North Carolina
13. Republicans 246, Democrats 189
14. Republican Caucus 53, Democrat Caucus 47
15. Paul Pate 49.5%, Brad Anderson 47.1% , Others 3.4%
southiowamoderate Fri 31 Oct 6:14 PM
Predictions
1. 1,097,317
2. Braley: 50$ Ernst: 48% Others: 2
3. Branstad: 57 Hatch: 42 Others: 1
4. Murphy: 51 Blum: 49
5. Loebsack: 53 MMM: 47
6. Young: 52 Appel: 46 Others: 2
7. King: 57 Mowrer: 43
8. Republicans: 56 Dems: 44
9: Democrats: 26 Repubs: 24
10. IA-1
11. Kevin Kinney vs. Mike Moore
12. Colorado
13. Repubs: 243 Dems: 192
14. Dems: 51 Repubs: 49
15. Pate: 54 Anderson: 44 Porter: 2
It is going to be sad to see a couple of good legislators lose their seats in the Iowa House. I think the voters may regret their choices if things pan out the way I think they will.
moderateiadem Fri 31 Oct 8:40 PM
Yes they will.
rockm Fri 31 Oct 11:05 PM
interesting
Out of curiosity, which U.S. Senate seats do you see Democrats holding to maintain their majority?
desmoinesdem Sat 1 Nov 8:06 PM
Senate Races
Dems pick up Kansas, hold Colorado, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire and our beloved state. (Yes, I really like Mary Landrieu and I gave her money) I go back and forth on Louisiana and Colorado daily.
They lose Arkansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia and Kentucky.
I would like to editorialize a bit and say that it is a shame that Nebraska never became a competitive race. Jim Jenkins, an independent that served in the Reagan administration. He was highly critical of the Republican nominee Ben Sasse. He mulled a run as a Dem in 2012, but he served on the state ethanol board so many Dems throughout the state were critical of his environmental record. I know Nebraska is a deep red state, but if a Washington D.C. resident like Larry Pressler can get some free press then Jim Jenkins should have received more publicity.
moderateiadem Sat 1 Nov 11:21 PM
Don't see a path to victory for Mary. Sorry to say.
rockm Sun 2 Nov 1:59 AM
I thought Landrieu was done in 2002
when she had to deal with a runoff after Republicans had already taken the Senate. But she pulled that one out.
I am not feeling good about Colorado at all. I didn’t expect Udall to have so much trouble.
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 11:18 AM
Predictions
1) 1,135,000 Iowans will cast their vote in 2014.
2) Ernst 50% Braley 47% Others 3% – I am afraid.
3) Branstad 54% Hatch 42% Others 4%
4) Murphy 50% Blum 47% Others 3%
5) Loebsack 53% Miller-Meeks 45% Others 2%
6) Young 50% Appel 48% Others 2%
7) King 55% Mowrer 43% Others 2%
8) 53 Rep 47 Dem
9) 24 Rep 26 Dem
10) 3rd District
11) Salmon vs. Meyer
12) Kansas
13) 240 Rep 195 Dem
14) 50 Rep 50 Dem (including 3 Independents caucusing with Dem – Orman in Kansas will win.)
15) Anderson 50% Pate 49% Others 1%
mark-r-schweitzer Sat 1 Nov 9:58 PM
Predictions
1. 1,198,013
2. 50% Ernst, 47% Braley
3. 56% Branstad, 40% Hatch
4. Blum 49%, Murphy, 48.5%
5. Loebsack 50%, MMM 48%
6. Young 51%, Appel 47%
7. King 54%, Mowrer 44%
8. 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats.
9. 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
10. IA-01
11. Salmon-Meyer
12. NC-SEN
13. 238 Republicans, 197 Democrats
14. 53 Republicans 47 Democrats.
15. Pate – 50%, Anderson 48%
ghbraves Sun 2 Nov 2:29 PM
The beret bets
Longer version at http://jdeeth.blogspot.com/201…
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2014 general election? For reference, 1,125,386 Iowans voted in the 2010 general election, and 1,044,459 Iowans voted in the 2006 general election.
1.15 million
2. What percentage of the vote will U.S. Senate candidates Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst receive? (keep in mind that four other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Ernst 49.8 Braley 48.9.
3. What percentage of the vote will Governor Terry Branstad and challenger Jack Hatch receive? (keep in mind that three other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Branstad 55, Hatch 42.
4. What percentage of the vote will Pat Murphy and Rod Blum receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district?
Blum 50.5 Murphy 49.5.
5. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Mariannette Miller-Meeks receive in IA-02?
Loebsack 53-47.
6. What percentage of the vote will Staci Appel and David Young receive in IA-03? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Young 50.0 Appel 48.5.
7. What percentage of the vote will Jim Mowrer and Steve King receive in IA-04?
King 55 Mowrer 45.
8. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
54-46 R.
9. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa Senate next Tuesday? Currently there are 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
27-23 D
10. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Blum-Murphy.
11. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
Democratic incumbent Dan Muhlbauer vs. Republican Brian Best in Carroll-based House 12, and not sure which way it goes.
12. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
The weird wacky and wild Kansas race.
13. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2015? (435 total) Currently there are 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and two vacancies.
241-194.
14. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2015? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 55 Democrats (including the two independents who caucus with them) and 45 Republicans.
50-50.
15. What percentage of the vote will Brad Anderson and Paul Pate receive in the Iowa secretary of state race? (keep in mind that two other candidates also appear on the ballot)
Anderson 50 Pate 48.
jdeeth Mon 3 Nov 7:46 AM
I just can't decide
whether to go with a 26-24 Iowa Senate or 27-23. Given the map, it really “should” end up 27-23. Concerned Chickenman will get back in on MMM’s coattails, though.
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 11:14 AM
Predictions
1. 1,347,956
2. Braley 48% Ernst 47%
3. Brandstad 59% Hatch 38%
4. Murphy 51% Blum 49%
5. Loebsack 53% Miller-Meeks 47%
6. Young 53% Appel 47%
7. Mowrer 45% King 55%
8. R’s 54 D’s 46
9. R’s 23 D’s 27
10. Blum/Murphy
11. Braley/Ernst
12. Braley/Ernst
13. R’s 237 D’s 198
14. R’s 49 D’s 51
15. Anderson 52% Pate 47%
neigirl Mon 3 Nov 11:32 AM
for question 11
I was looking for one of the state legislative races (Iowa House or Iowa Senate). Feel free to add another comment amending that prediction if you’d like.
I hope you’re right on the first two questions!
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 9:10 PM
Prediction
1) 1,180,000 Iowans will vote
2) Ernst 49.6 Braley 48.9 Other 1.5
3) Branstad 58.5 Hatch 40.1 Other 1.6
4) Blum 50.1 Murphy 49.8 Other 0.1
5) Loebsack 52.4 MMM 47.4 Other 0.2
6) Young 50.2 Appel 49.0 Other 0.8
7) King 55.6 Mowrer 44.0 Other 0.4
8) GOP 54 Dem 46
9) GOP 25 Dem 25
10) District 1, 0.3
11) HD 12
12) Kansas (Roberts/Orman)
13) 241 R, 194 D
14) 53 R, 47 D
15) Pate 50.6 Anderson 49.0 Other 0.4
youngconservative Mon 3 Nov 12:46 PM
I also think
that KS-Sen will be the closest U.S. Senate race, and I think Pat Roberts will pull it out. Moderate Rs want to punish Brownback but still prefer a GOP-controlled U.S. Senate.
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 9:12 PM
iaDems into Political Wilderness
1.) 1,550,000.
2.) Joni Ernst: 48%, Bruce Braley: 47%
3.) Branstad: 60%, Hatch: 39%
4.) Blum: 49.5%, Murphy: 48%
5.) Loebsack: 54%, Miller-Meeks: 46%
6.) Young: 52%, Appel: 47%
7.) King: 61%, Mowrer, 38%
8.) 54 R, 46 D
9.) 27 D, 23 R
10.) IA-01
11.) Beall
12.) KY-Sen
13.) R +11
14.) 53 R, 47 D
15.) 50% Pate, 49.5% Anderson
This will probably be the most disappointing election of my lifetime. Get it together guys.
mrscarletw Mon 3 Nov 1:10 PM
that's a big turnout prediction
if we could get that many voters out, I think it would be a great day for Iowa Democrats.
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 8:57 PM
Going for the bold!
Recalling BH assessment that “we should all keep our day jobs” after the 2014 primary predictions, I’m going for the gold with bold predictions based on simple numeric analysis that hinges on the reality that less than half of the 2010 Republican primary voters participated in the 2014 primary. The Republican campaign has been one of bluff not substance, which I take as proof of failure of the party to engage anyone outside the shrinking group who still allow an R next to their name. Here are my predictions:
1. 1,025,000 participate in the general – that’s low and it will be the first time a low turn out gives Democrats an advantage.
2. 52% Braley, 48% Ernst
3. 51% Branstad, 48% Hatch (I wish I could guess otherwise!)
4. 52% Murphy, 48% Blum
5. 54% Loebsack, 46% Miller-Meeks
6. 51% Appel, 48% Young, 1% other
7. 51% Mowrer, 49% King
8. Hold the same
9. Dems will pick up one seat, 27 D, 23 R
10. Mowrer King race
11. State senate – Dennis Black’s former seat
12. Kay Hagen in NC
13. 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats
14. 57 Dems, 43 Reps
15. 52% Anderson, 46% Pate, 2% other candidates
julie-stauch Mon 3 Nov 5:22 PM
that would be really low turnout
especially considering the very high early voting. Will be interesting to see how crowded polling places are tomorrow.
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 8:57 PM
I'll have what she's having !
rockm Mon 3 Nov 10:36 PM
going with my pessimistic scenario
Unfortunately.
1. Turnout will be 1,150,000–a bit higher than in 2010 but not as high as Democrats probably need.
2. 49% Ernst, 48% Braley, 3% others
3. 59% Branstad, 41% Hatch (Ernst has run about 10 points behind Branstad in a lot of the polling)
4. 51% Murphy, 49% Blum
5. 55% Loebsack, 45% Miller-Meeks
6. 50% Young, 48% Appel, 2% other candidates
7. 56% King, 44% Mowrer
8. The next Iowa House will have 55 Republicans and 45 Democrats–which is a shame because Democrats should be able to win 51 seats with this map.
9. I fear MMM’s Ottumwa-area coattails will save GOP State Senator Mark “Chickenman” Chelgren, which will prevent the Democrats from expanding their majority. The next Senate will have 26 Democrats and 24 Republicans, which is frustrating, as this map should support 27 or 28 Democratic-held seats.
10. IA-03
11. The closest state legislative race will be between Daniel Lundby and Ken Rizer in House district 68.
12. Kansas
13. The new U.S. House will have 243 Republicans and 192 Democrats.
14. The new U.S. Senate will have 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. But the chamber could flip again in 2016.
15. 50.5% Pate, 47.5% Anderson, 3% other candidates (too much drop-off from the top of the ticket and too many straight-ticket Republican voters)
desmoinesdem Mon 3 Nov 9:09 PM
Republican prediction
1.) 1,200,000
2.) Joni Ernst: 51%, Bruce Braley: 47%
3.) Branstad: 57%, Hatch: 41%
4.) Blum: 50.5%, Murphy: 49.5%
5.) Loebsack: 52%, Miller-Meeks: 47%
6.) Young: 50%, Appel: 48%
7.) King: 58%, Mowrer, 42%
8.) 55 R, 45 D
9.) 28 D, 22 R
10.) IA-01
11.) Salmon-Meyer/ Riding-Nunn
12.) New Hampshire
13.) 240 R, 195 D
14.) 54 R, 46 D
15.) 48% Pate, 49% Anderson (hope i’m wrong)
imcgee Mon 3 Nov 10:35 PM
it's interesting to me
that so many people expect the Salmon/Meyer race to be so close.
Looks like Riding/Nunn (House district 30) may end up being the most expensive Iowa House race this cycle. Either that or the Lundby/Rizer race in House district 68.
desmoinesdem Tue 4 Nov 5:36 AM
best guess
1.) 1,200,000 voters
2.) Joni Ernst 49.5 %, Bruce Braley 49%
3.) Branstad 56%, Hatch 44%
4.) Murphy 50.5%, Blum 49.5%
5.) Loebsack 53%, Miller-Meeks 47%
6.) Young 49.5%, Appel 49.5%
7.) King 57%, Mowrer, 43%
8.) 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats
9.) 26 Democrats, 24 Republicans
10.) IA-03
11.) HD 55
12.) KS-Sen (I’m torn, it might very well be Iowa as well)
13.) 240 Republicans, 195 Democrats
14.) 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats Orman wins Kansas and one of the Democrats not expected to win (Begich, Braley, Landrieu, Nunn, Udall) pulls out a win. There might be party switchers later.
15.) 51% Anderson, 49% Pate
johannes Tue 4 Nov 3:23 AM
I read something a while back
that said most years, at least one or two Senate candidates who go into election day ahead in the polling average will lose.
Let’s hope this year’s version of that will involve one of the Democrats you named winning, as opposed to Hagan or Shaheen losing.
desmoinesdem Tue 4 Nov 5:35 AM
prediction
Branstad 55% Hatch 41% others 4%
Anderson 50% Pate 46% Porter 4%
Miller 65% Gregg 35%
Appel 48% Young 47% others 5%
Ernst 51% Braley 48% others 1%
eric-durbin Tue 4 Nov 8:32 AM