If campaign strategy is anything to go by, four-term U.S. Representative Dave Loebsack is a creature of habit. Loebsack’s debut television commercial launched late last week, and I’ve enclosed the video and transcript after the jump, with my initial thoughts about the message. The biographical information and visuals echo Loebsack’s opening commercial from his 2010 re-election campaign. The ad highlights the same public policy he led with in 2012. The same narrator performs the voice-over. The mid-September launch is precisely when he went up on the air in 2010 and 2012. (Loebsack’s not the greatest fundraiser in Congress, so he can’t afford to advertise district-wide for more than a couple of months.)

Several Bleeding Heartland readers have asked me about last week’s Loras College poll, showing Loebsack ahead of Miller-Meeks by 48.7 percent to 32.1 percent among 300 likely voters in the second Congressional district. I have a hard time believing those results, partly because Loras doesn’t have a long track record with polling. In addition, the statewide sample for the Loras poll includes too high a proportion of no-party voters for a mid-term election. Although a plurality of Iowa registered voters are independents, no-party voters comprised only about a quarter of the electorate in the last three Iowa midterm elections (click through for reports on turnout in 2010, 2006, and 2002). Perhaps most important, Loebsack defeated the less-credible challenger John Archer by a little more than 12 percent in 2012, a presidential election year. So I consider it unlikely he’s 16 points ahead of Miller-Meeks, who came fairly close to beating him in 2010.

By the same token, I don’t believe the Tarrance Group survey that the Miller-Meeks campaign hyped in mid-August, showing her trailing Loebsack by just 45 to 42 percent. Internal polls are always suspect, especially when the campaign releases almost no information about the sample demographics, question wording or question order.

Miller-Meeks and her suporters are optimistic because the district leans less Democratic than the one where Loebsack won his first three elections to Congress. The old IA-02 had a partisan voting index of D+7, whereas the current district is D+4. The latest figures from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office indicate that the 24 counties in IA-02 contain 165,834 active registered Democrats, 139,034 Republicans, and 180,843 no-party voters. In contrast, Democrats had a voter registration advantage of nearly 48,000 in IA-02 going into the 2010 general election, when Loebsack defeated Miller-Meeks by about 11,500 votes. Notably, Loebsack’s current district includes the Quad Cities area (Scott County), traditionally more Republican-leaning than the Cedar Rapids area (Linn County), which was part of his old district. Under the previous map, Bruce Braley narrowly lost Scott County to his GOP challenger Ben Lange in 2010.

That analysis overlooks a few salient points, though. Since Iowa lawmakers adopted the current map of political boundaries, Loebsack has had three and a half years to build up his name recognition and support in the Quad Cities. He’s attended hundreds of public events there. He’s gone to bat for the Rock Island Arsenal, a major local employer. Nor are the new IA-02 counties a natural base of support for Miller-Meeks, who has spent most of her career in the Ottumwa area. In fact, her woefully under-funded opponent Mark Lofgren carried Scott County and neighboring Clinton County, as well as his home base of Muscatine, in this year’s Republican primary to represent IA-02.

I suspect we would have seen a greater sense of urgency from Loebsack’s campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee if Democratic polling indicated a close race here. The DCCC swooped in to rescue Loebsack in 2010, running a couple of negative spots against Miller-Meeks in the final weeks. I’ll believe Miller-Meeks has a real shot if we see more independent expenditures for both candidates than occurred in IA-02 during the Loebsack’s race against Archer. While the National Republican Congressional Committee placed Miller-Meeks on the top tier of their program for challengers, I have seen no sign that the NRCC plans to spend significant money on this race.

Dave Loebsack campaign commercial “Doors,” launched on September 12:

My transcript:

Male voice-over: In Iowa, it’s about these doors. Honest pay for honest work. [Viewer sees footage of doors opening on farm building, man carrying bale of hay outside.]

Raised by a single mother, Dave Loebsack worked to put himself through college. [Camera pans over black and white photo of Loebsack as a young child with his brothers, then footage of the candidate walking out of a barn, with farm equipment in view and words DAVE LOEBSACK on screen]

He understands the middle-class struggle first-hand. [Footage of casually-dressed Loebsack walking with man and woman in front of farm buildings, DAVE LOEBSACK remains on screen]

But in Washington, it’s too often a revolving door, with Congress cashing in for personal profit. [Footage of man wearing suit entering building through revolving door, phone to ear, word CONGRESS on screen, then LOBBYIST]

It’s why Dave Loebsack pushed to ban members of Congress from becoming lobbyists permanently. [footage of Loebsack talking with two men in front of barn with farm scene in background; words on screen include quote from Cedar Rapids Gazette, April 2, 2012, Dave Loebsack “ban former Congress members from lobbying”]

Loebsack: I’m Dave Loebsack, and I approved this message because it’s time to do what’s right. [Loebsack speaks directly to camera, in rural setting with old-fashioned barn in background.]

This is not a ground-breaking or attention-getting commercial. On the other hand, it’s a safe start that plays to a few of Loebsack’s strengths. He came from humble beginnings, so he can relate to the challenges of constituents who live from paycheck to paycheck. The photo of him as a child has been a image in Loebsack’s commercials for years, with good reason. The shot is adorable. The farm footage is picturesque. The ad would create favorable associations even when watched with the sound muted.

Even Loebsack’s detractors would have to admit that he has not used his position in Congress to enrich himself or live in luxury. He isn’t the type to cash in on his public service with a high-paid lobbying gig, as so many others have done (most recently former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor).

A permanent ban on lobbying by former members of Congress is about as likely to pass as single-payer health care, but no doubt it sounds like a great idea to the average person, regardless of party. As I mentioned above, the debut tv ad from Loebsack’s 2012 re-election campaign featured the same proposal.

Any comments about the IA-02 race are welcome in this thread.