I’ve been meaning to catch up on the various Branstad administration scandals involving alleged politically-motivated firings, cronyism affecting state contracting and hiring for certain public positions, “hush money” paid in exchange for non-disclosure agreements with fired state employees, blacklists that prevent former employees from gaining other state jobs, interference in what should be non-political work, and possible misuse of federal funds by the Department of Administrative Services in order to make some of the unauthorized secret settlement payments. Governor Terry Branstad realized nearly two weeks ago that his quickie internal review and executive order on secret settlements were not sufficient. He fired Department of Administrative Services Director Mike Carroll after Carroll gave inaccurate testimony at a legislative hearing. But almost every day, the Des Moines Register or some other media outlet has a new angle on alleged wrongdoing.

Last week’s Loras College survey of Iowa Republicans indicated that Branstad has nothing to worry about from his GOP primary challenger, Tom Hoefling. But a Public Policy Polling survey released today shows Branstad’s approval as low as I can remember seeing it during his current term, and the incumbent barely ahead of Democratic challenger Jack Hatch.

Full results from the survey are here (pdf). Highlights are after the jump.  

The progressive advocacy group Progress Iowa commissioned the new poll. Public Policy Polling surveyed 677 Iowa voters on April 19 and 20, using robocalls. The first question asked respondents whether they approved of Branstad’s job performance. The result was 43 percent approve/45 percent disapprove. Branstad’s approval was “underwater” for much of his fourth term during the 1990s, but I don’t recall seeing numbers like these lately.

The second question was a ballot test. If the election were held today, 43 percent of respondents would vote for Branstad and 38 percent for Democratic State Senator Hatch, while 19 percent were not sure.

Public Policy Polling’s previous Iowa poll, taken in February, found Branstad leading Hatch 48 percent to 36 percent, with the governor’s approval at 45 percent.

Several questions about the scandals followed:

Q3 How aware are you of the recent allegations of scandal in Governor Branstad’s administration, including alleged secret settlements for state workers who claim they were fired as political retribution: very aware, somewhat aware, or not at all aware?

Very aware 52%

Somewhat aware 31%

Not at all aware 12%

Not sure 5%

Q4 Governor Branstad has repeatedly denied knowledge of scandals in his administration: the firing of the trooper who caught his SUV speeding, abuse in an Iowa juvenile home, the paying of secret settlements, and the improper influencing of an Iowa judge. Do you think that the governor had no knowledge of these activities in his administration, or not?

Think he had no knowledge 17%

Think he knew more than he’s letting on 56%

Not sure 27%

Q5 The recent scandals in the Branstad administration have led to requests by legislators for an independent investigation, several high-profile resignations, and the firing of one department director. If the governor did have direct knowledge of one or more of the scandals in his administration, do you think he should resign from office, or not?

Think he should resign 30%

Think he should not 36%

Not sure 34%

Q6 Should the Iowa legislature hire independent legal counsel to investigate the Branstad administration’s secret settlements with former state employees, or not?

Think they should 42%

Think they should not 31%

Not sure 28%

Q7 Having heard the information in this poll, let me ask you again: if the candidates for Governor this fall were Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack Hatch, who would you vote for?

Terry Branstad 41%

Jack Hatch 40%

Not sure 19%

The Des Moines Register’s last Iowa poll by Selzer & Co., conducted in late February, found Branstad’s approval much higher than PPP’s numbers, and found Branstad ahead of Hatch by 46 percent to 29 percent. In some years the Register has commissioned an Iowa poll in May. It will be interesting to see whether Selzer sees a similar decline in the governor’s re-election numbers.

Crosstabs from the PPP poll can be found here. I noticed that the sample contained 39 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 25 percent no-party voters. Independents have made up approximately a quarter of the electorate in Iowa’s last two midterm elections, but Republican turnout far outstripped Democratic turnout in 2010.

It would be optimistic for Democrats to assume that the sample from this poll reflects the likely electorate this November. Nevertheless, the poll suggests Hatch is within striking distance of the incumbent for the first time.