The more I think about Steve King’s Friday night announcement that he will not run for U.S. Senate in 2014, the more I suspect that someone rushed him into that decision.

Consider King’s previous comments on his timetable for deciding on a Senate race.

February 11:

No, there’s not a timeline on it, but I don’t think it’s something that should be done urgently, hastily, or emotionally. It needs to be done analytically. […] If I had made a decision the first day, it would have not allowed for Iowans to weigh in on this. Those that think I should and those that think I shouldn’t, let me know, and let me know why. I want to weigh all of that […] In the end we take all of that and see if my head, heart and gut come together, but part of that also is family and it’s faith.

March 25:

He said a decision is likely soon, although he didn’t want to be pinned down to a specific date to make an announcement. He said he plans a meeting with his top campaign people in about a week, adding that he recognizes other Republicans are interested in running in 2014 for his House seat and for the Senate seat that Harkin plans to vacate when he retires.

April 29:

“I’ve said for several weeks now that it wouldn’t be for very long,” King told TheIowaRepublican.com. “I’ve got an opportunity to be in Iowa this coming week and it’s one of the things I’ve promised myself is to turn my focus to that decision-making. There are a number of meetings that I’ll be having throughout that period of time and we’ll see where it goes.” […]

“I feel like I’m a carpenter’s level on the arm of a rocking chair and it just keeps going back and forth, the bubble between one direction and the other,” King said. “I owe Iowans an answer as soon as possible and I really appreciate so many of my friends and colleagues that have given me deference and time to make this decision, but I owe it to them to get to that decision very quickly.”

May 1:

He said he never expected to still be undecided in May. “Things are stacking up on me so fast,  I hardly have time to deal with the issue,” the Kiron Republican said.  He cited events pending in Congress, especially the farm bill and the immigration issue.

“I’ve just been pinned down doing my job, believe it or not,” he said. “It just keeps me busy representing people in Congress.”

A reporter asked if he’d have time to run for Senate, if he’s too busy to decide whether to run.  “It’s a management issue,” King said.

He said he needs “a little bit of time to have some conversations around the state, and a little bit around the country.” He said fundraising is part of those conversations. “Also, how to do arrange it, how do you plan if you’re going to launch, how do you do that.”

He thanked other Republicans who have indicated they would wait to learn King’s plans before announcing their own intentions for the Senate.  “They’ve given me some deference here. You can’t ask for a better situation, a lot of Republicans want to get the right thing done in the state.”

In light of those comments and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey’s May 2 statement that he hoped King would run for Senate, I expected King to wait a while before calling the inevitable press conference to explain why he was staying in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. I figured his excuse would be a desire to protect his family from the strain of a long statewide campaign. Instead, he cited a patriotic duty to focus his full attention on fighting the Left in the House.

I didn’t expect a Friday-evening news dump via twitter and King’s Congressional campaign website, two days after he told journalists he needed more time to have conversations around Iowa and the country.

It’s no secret that some Iowa Republicans were getting tired of waiting for King. Some GOP strategists are starting to worry about Bruce Braley’s head start on fundraising and campaigning around the state. Former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker has a Senate campaign website ready to go but didn’t want to run against King. State Senator Joni Ernst said she’d like to decide within 30 days on a Senate race, but also would not challenge King in a primary. Senator Chuck Grassley’s chief of staff David Young and former State Representative Rod Roberts are exploring the Senate race too.

King claimed during a recent Iowa Public Television appearance that the Senate race would be an “uphill battle” for Republicans but that his own polling showed a “path to victory.” I believe that any well-conducted statewide poll in Iowa would show Bruce Braley dominating Steve King. Bleeding Heartland user 2laneIA heard from an Iowa Republican activist that some of the private polling on the IA-Sen race showed King losing to Braley by as much as 30 points. I have no way of confirming that rumor, but it would not surprise me.

I wonder whether someone warned King that discouraging poll numbers would be leaked to a journalist soon if he did not hurry up and get out of the way.

The Iowa Republican blog’s publisher Craig Robinson politely described King as a potentially “formidable” Senate candidate, but the more honest Republicans admit that Governor Terry Branstad was right: King couldn’t do well enough in eastern Iowa to win a statewide race.

Spin your own scenarios in this thread.