I’ve been watching for signs that Republican State Senator Sandy Greiner might retire rather than run for re-election in 2014. Although she has more legislative experience than most of her GOP colleagues and was an early backer of Bill Dix’s effort to become minority leader, she didn’t join the Republican leadership team after Dix became head of the caucus last November.
If Greiner seeks another term in the Iowa Senate, I believe she would be favored to hold what looks like a swing district on paper. But in the last few days I’ve been wondering whether she might run into trouble during a Republican primary. I’ve posted some thoughts on this scenario after the jump, along with a map and the latest voter registration totals from Senate district 39.
Greiner was the only Iowa senator to vote against the redistricting plan adopted in 2011. The new map put her in Senate district 39, where half the population lives in Johnson County. Here’s a closer look at that district:
Senate district 39 excludes the most liberal-leaning areas of Johnson County but still appears competitive. As of May 2013, the district contains 13,348 registered Democrats, 13,339 Republicans, and 16,105 no-party voters according to the Iowa Secretary of State’s office (pdf).
Senate Democrats will likely target district 39 next year whether or not Greiner retires. But in light of her long incumbency (14 years in the Iowa House and two years in the Iowa Senate before she came out of retirement in 2010), as well as the challenges of turning out Democratic voters in a midterm election year, I consider Greiner the favorite in a general election campaign.
The Republican establishment (including Governor Terry Branstad and GOP-leaning groups like the National Rifle Association and the Iowa Farm Bureau) will strongly support Greiner if she seeks another term in the Senate. With her service as board president of the conservative 501(c)4 organization American Future Fund, she will be able to raise all the money she needs for a re-election race.
But last week, Greiner was one of only four Republican senators who declined to co-sponsor the latest version of a state constitutional amendment on “personhood.” The amendment has no chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Iowa Senate, and many people consider the personhood movement to be “wackadoodle,” in State Senator Matt McCoy’s words. Still, anti-abortion activists may be furious that Greiner did not sign on to recognize and protect the “inalienable right to life of every person at any stage of development” in Iowa.
As ranking member of the Iowa Senate Ethics Committee, Greiner voted yesterday to support an investigation of State Senator Kent Sorenson. That course of action seems obvious in light of the allegations. Greiner was right to say that there would be a “cloud” over the Iowa Senate if they didn’t investigate the charges. But as disloyal and unsavory as Sorenson may seem, he is a hero to many on the Republican Party’s right wing. If the upcoming investigation leads to real problems for Sorenson, some wingnut in Senate district 39 may try to unseat Greiner next year.
Normally, an entrenched incumbent like Greiner should have no trouble beating back a primary challenge. She has a socially conservative voting record and did co-sponsor the latest version of an amendment to ban same-sex marriage. On the other hand, Iowa has seen some strange results in Republican primaries lately. In June 2012, Dennis Guth beat former Senator Jim Black in Senate district 4, Mark Segebart beat establishment favorite Adam Schweers in Senate district 6, and tea party favorite Jane Jech beat former Senator Larry McKibben in Senate district 36.
Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread. I haven’t heard of any Democrats planning to run in Senate district 39 next year. The incumbent Greiner defeated in 2010, Becky Schmitz, lives in Fairfield, which lies outside this Senate district.
UPDATE: John Deeth pointed out in the comments below that a lot of the Johnson County Republicans may cross over to vote for county offices in the 2014 Democratic primary (which tends to be the “real election” for those offices). On the other hand, if there’s spirited competition for the U.S. Senate nomination on the GOP side, I would expect a lot fewer Johnson County Republicans to cross over.
2 Comments
Greiner
I know someone who lives in this district, but he wants to run as a Democrat. I doubt he does it, he tends to get too many projects going at once and can’t give such an endeavor the necessary attention.
I don’t think Sorenson has enough allies around the state in order to ask someone about primarying Greiner.
There aren’t many politicians who are/were skilled enough to draw sympathy from an ethics charge. There were some out there in the past (Murtha, Wilbur Mills, Ted Kennedy), but I’m not sure that someone like Sorenson can get that kind of loyal support anywhere. By the way I want to make it clear that I’m not saying Ted Kennedy was ever brought up on ethics charges, but he did have his share of judgment failings.
I could have listed David Vitter on this list as well, but I think most Louisiana residents would now rather vote for a case of chicken pox over a Democrat (not named Landrieu) for federal office.
moderateiadem Fri 3 May 3:03 PM
Dynamics
Johnson County may be half the district but will probably be much less than half the primary electorate. Our primaries are traditionally more about the courthouse than the state house, and historically that’s meant Democratic primaries.
There’s historically been a significant GOP crossover to local Dem primaries. My favorite stat: in 1998 we had 1000 more votes for recorder than for governor, as crossover voters skipped the Vilsack-McCormick race.
This courthouse dynamic can cut either way. In 2012 Johnson outvoted Cedar in the House 73 primary, even though Cedar County was 2/3 of the population. We had a very hot auditor primary that saw the defeat of a 36 year incumbent.
(That primary also explains why the Deeth Blog went more or less dark for three months last spring. Primaries involving your boss and your future boss are dangerous, especially when you’re backing the challenger.)
Next year’s Johnson County courthouse primary is likely to be even hotter. With the election of Republican John Etheredge in the March special, Democrats have one open slot. We’re also re-fighting a controversial local zoning issue that cost an incumbent his seat in the 2006 primary and played a big role in the Republican special election win.
Making things even wilder: local Republicans are pushing a petition to switch from at-large elections to a district system. If they get the signatures and win an August special election – both big ifs – then all five supervisor seats would be on the 2014 ballot.
These things are all more interesting to the typical Johnson County primary voter than a US Senate race or a protest vote for Vander Plaats over Branstad or even a hot state legislative race. The party activists will stay in the GOP primary, sure. But Average Senate 39 Farmer will be more interested in the courthouse.
In any case the Dems’ strongest candidate would certainly be State Rep. Sally Stutsman if she’s interested…
jdeeth Sun 5 May 11:49 AM