Representative Tom Latham (IA-03) announced in an e-mail to supporters this afternoon that he will not seek the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in 2014. I’ve posted his message after the jump. When Latham says, “I cannot in good conscience launch a two-year statewide campaign that will detract from the commitment I made to the people who elected me […],” I think he means, I prefer not to give up an easy job.

Governor Terry Branstad had made clear on several occasions, most recently this past weekend, that he would like Latham to run for Senate. Latham’s decision clears a path for many other Republicans who are reportedly considering the race, including former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker, State Senator Brad Zaun, Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds, Iowa Senate Minority Leader Bill Dix, and Secretary of State Matt Schultz.

I’m standing by my prediction that Representative Steve King will not leave his safe perch in IA-04 for a statewide campaign he knows he would lose. Some “bold color conservative” is bound to run, though. I suspect Bob Vander Plaats knows that his ship has sailed, but maybe he has one last campaign in him.

Any comments about the IA-Sen race are welcome in this thread. Representative Bruce Braley will surely be relieved to have Latham off the list of potential Republican opponents.

UPDATE: Politico’s James Hohmann tweets, “Iowa Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds is ‘very serious’ about running for Senate, a source tells me.” Imagine what Republicans would say about a Democrat who didn’t finish college running for U.S. Senate. Further updates are after the jump.

E-mail sent on February 27:

Dear Friend:

I want to thank you for your continued and faithful friendship and support.  I also want to thank you and the many Iowans who have reached out to me with their support and encouragement to enter the race for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat in 2014.  I cannot tell you how much I appreciated the calls, conversations, emails and notes.  I feel truly blessed and humbled to represent in Congress the greatest state and people.

My service to Iowa has never been motivated by titles, accolades or a drive to secure a place for my name in history or on a building.  I have always been motivated by a responsibility and commitment to the people of Iowa, who elected me to faithfully work for an America that provides greater freedom and more opportunity for our children and grandchildren.

The opportunity to serve Iowa in the U.S. Senate is appealing to this farm kid who grew up here, raised a family here, and helped grow a family business in Iowa. I love Iowa.

However, only 56 days ago I took an oath to “faithfully discharge the duties” of an office with which the people of Iowa’s Third Congressional District entrusted to me.  I cannot in good conscience launch a two-year statewide campaign that will detract from the commitment I made to the people who elected me, at a time when our nation desperately needs less campaigning and more leadership.

Again, thank you for your continued friendship.  I ask for your continued support and guidance as we work together for this great nation and her people.

Best –

Tom

UPDATE: Steve King said in a statement released Wednesday,

A potential Senate race remains an analytical decision first and then one that requires deep conviction. Such a decision includes, of course, my family and the best interests of Iowans and Americans. It is too big a decision to be rushed.

Comparing King’s vote totals to Mitt Romney’s in the fourth Congressional district tells you King is not positioned to win a statewide election.

Governor Branstad released this statement:

“I respect Congressman Latham’s decision to focus on the job that he was elected to do, serving the people of Iowa. He is an outstanding congressman and we are certainly proud to have his service.”

Thanks to Jennifer Jacobs for listening to WHO radio so I don’t have to:

In an interview on WHO NewsRadio today, Latham said a fear of not winning the U.S. Senate race wasn’t a factor. “We had looked at it and it looked extremely positive,” he said. “It was a very, very good opportunity.”

But a disinterest in campaigning was a factor. “There’s a Democrat that’s already in the race and he’s out of his district now running around the state and how do you actually do your job and have that hanging over your head all the time,” Latham said.

The executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Guy Cecil, tweeted today that Latham is “another potential candidate in a long line of Republicans who decided not to face down extremist elements within their own party.” Cecil confirmed that the DSCC will support Bruce Braley (not that I expect major competition in the Democratic primary).

I love Bob Vander Plaats’ comments to Politico:

Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent social conservative activist, fully expects King to get in now and thinks he will generate significant enthusiasm.

“Most Iowans, at least the Iowans I hang out with, are interested in electing a full-spectrum conservative like King to the U.S. Senate,” he said. “All you’ve got to do is call President Romney to find out what it’s like to have a noninspired grass-roots base.”

The Iowans BVP hangs out with get excited about some pretty odd things.

Iowa GOP Chair A.J. Spiker told the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s James Lynch,

“There’s something very valuable in firing up the base,” Spiker said. “When you have a candidate who can fire up the base, you can’t put a dollar figure on that. If you’re loved by the base, the work you get out of the base will be worth millions.”

If King decides not to run for the Senate, there are several Republicans who may step forward, Spiker said. That pool is “larger than you think” and would include legislators and statewide elected officials.

Aaron Blake wrote on the Washington Post blog,

Latham was clearly the GOP establishment’s best hope to avoid nominating King, and Iowa Republicans say it’s unlikely anyone would give King a serious challenge now.

“Assuming Congressman King wants to run, he would be the closest thing you could get to a lock on the nomination,” said one Iowa GOP strategist, granted anonymity to discuss the race candidly. “I can’t see anyone in Iowa who could beat him in a primary.”

Another Iowa Republican said the Senate GOP made a strong pitch to recruit Latham, and that his decision not to run was not for a lack of trying on their part.

“The NRSC certainly made a good-faith and heavy-duty case that he is the right guy and they would support him,” the Republican said. “I think he is the major guy. Clearly, after Latham, everybody else was Plan B.” […]

In the end, the best option may be to just embrace King who, for all his potential liabilities and his very conservative record, has put together a pretty solid electoral record. He is just coming off an eight-point victory over the well-funded campaign of former state first lady Christie Vilsack (D) in a district that included plenty of new territory. King’s performance in the district matched Mitt Romney’s very closely.

I strongly disagree with that last paragraph. Beating Vilsack by 30,000 votes in a district with 50,000 more Republicans than Democrats is hardly impressive. Whereas Latham substantially outperformed Romney in his district, King fell a few thousand votes short of Romney’s total in IA-04.