All year I’ve expected Democrats to lose control of the U.S. Senate, whether or not President Barack Obama was re-elected. Over the past month or so, I’ve been shocked to see Democratic prospects for holding the Senate improve greatly.
Not only did Todd Akin mess up what should have been almost a sure thing for Republicans in Missouri, Tommy Thompson has been a weaker candidate than expected in Wisconsin, and Republican incumbent Scott Brown is in real danger of losing to Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. Tim Kaine has improved his standing in Virginia, and Jon Tester has a chance to hang on in Montana. Democrats now look like favorites to hold the Senate on forecasting sites such as fivethirtyeight, the Rothenberg Political Report, and Talking Points Memo.
On the other hand, political odds-makers give Democrats little chance of regaining a majority in the U.S. House this year. Republicans controlled the redistricting process in several large states, and Democrats won’t gain as many seats in California as they might have with ruthless gerrymandering. I also don’t sense that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has done a great job.
Any comments about this year’s Congressional elections around the country are welcome in this thread.
9 Comments
A few races
North Dakota: Heitkamp has run a great campaign no matter what the end result is.
Nebraska: Bob Kerrey doesn’t appear to have much of a shot against the non-controversial Deb Fischer. I love Bob Kerrey and have contributed to his campaign. I recommend that everyone watch the debates between he and Fischer through the C-Span library, she does not go off message at all and tries to promise everything to everyone. Kerrey openly criticizes all sides for our economic and solvency issues.
Virginia: I’ve never liked Tim Kaine, never been impressed by him. George Allen is simply worse.
Arizona: Richard Carmona has been able to dodge a lot of attacks, it would be interesting to see exactly how independent he would be in the United States Senate. I admire Jeff Flake’s consistency on earmarks in particular whether it is always guided in the right direction or not. I like Carmona, but I think Flake will win.
Nevada: Dean Heller has kept a low profile, the race against Berkley is fascinating.
Non-2012 question: I like Carl Levin. (I don’t believe the NDAA is as dubious as most people say it is) Who thinks Levin will retire and if Granholm runs will she face a stiff primary challenge?
moderateiadem Mon 8 Oct 7:51 PM
no one
expected Heitkamp to make a race of it in North Dakota. I haven’t followed it closely, but by all accounts she has done extremely well.
I think Berkley has a chance in NV.
Not versed in Michigan politics, but I always assume senators won’t retire (barring some serious health problem).
desmoinesdem Mon 8 Oct 8:54 PM
I saw Bob on O'Donnell's show tonight
bleating about cutting Social Security and letting his giant ego hang out. I hope he loses. He would be a lot more destructive to the brand of the Democratic Party than an opposition wingnut. I would rather have some jerk from the tea party opposing a Grand Bargain than Kerrey advocating for it.
Maybe that’s just me.
2laneia Tue 9 Oct 12:00 AM
Couldn't disagree more
Of course I get more and more frustrated with Tom Harkin and people like Barbara Boxer as I get older. I love Bob Kerrey and agree with him on entitlements, but I also made a ten dollar donation to Chris Shays.
I guess I just get more conservative with every passing day. I also think Krugman is just a windbag who just wages war on whatever the consensus is. I believe we disagreed on Krugman in the past as well. That’s what makes this a great country, we can disagree.
moderateiadem Tue 9 Oct 1:03 AM
speaking of Carmona
Scott Wong wrote a good feature about his campaign for Politico. I doubt he’ll pull it off, but that would be a tremendous upset.
desmoinesdem Tue 9 Oct 9:37 AM
awful race
Virginia: I’ve never liked Tim Kaine, never been impressed by him. George Allen is simply worse.
George Allen comes across as old, tired and grouchy. I’m mildly surprised he’s running again. Kaine is just being Kaine, which is to say that he’s currently running an ad that features him standing next to Mark Warner. This was also his closing argument for the VA-Gov race in 2005. Allen’s biggest asset is Gov “Bob for Jobs.” They are hitting sequestration hard. You may have missed it in the Fri night news dump, but the Obama admin has promised a bailout for defense contractors in exchange for not sending out layoff notices. In other words, the US taxpayer will pick up the litigation tab, if needed.
Tammy vs Tommy: Thompson is the Larry McKibben of WI. He figured that name on ballot would be sufficient. She has done a great job with imagery that suggests he’s an old bloated dinosaur, but she’s largely taken advantage of his absence in the race. I expect this to change during the last month.
Brown vs Warren — a Democrat should be heavily favored, although I’ve never found Warren to be a particularly strong candidate. A poll came out today with Brown back on top:
The congressional races appear to be especially sensitive to top of the ticket (turnout) this year. I’m not paying as much attention to national races this year (usually my only entertainment) as MD is interesting for once. MD is even one of the 31 states selected for an exit poll — I can hardly believe it. I’m enjoying hearing about the strong-arm tactics by O’Malley & professional Democrats against MoCo CC, which has refused to endorse the redistricting map for the ballot recommendations they issue as guidance. Ben Cardin will be at an equality rally where I live this Thurs. He has 2 Republican opponents who are splitting the already miniscule GOP vote share.
Non-2012. Have a friend at State who is insisting (the ‘inside knowledge’ claim) that HRC is running in 2016. Insider claims are a dime a dozen in the DC area, but with Bill Clinton appearing with Vilsack, Boswell, Carmona and others, there might be something to it.
albert Tue 9 Oct 2:49 PM
Bongino
Bongino has some decent, natural speaking ability. He has kind of a compelling story. I would be surprised to see him land on talk radio,
George Allen tries his best not to take a position on anything. He still brags about Medicare Part D! That has to frustrate the Tea Party/ I know that Boiling and the AG are running for Governor. Good old boy George could have just waited for that race, he hates the U.S. Senate anyway!
moderateiadem Tue 9 Oct 5:07 PM
he's getting killed
by Sobhani, who is a Republican running as an “independent.” The non-Cardin vote is splitting almost in half. Of course, if Cardin had real opposition, I think he’d be polling higher than 50% at this point.
If the GOP were to run a Mathias/Morella type Republican statewide, they would win. The Democrats in this state are just promoting family dynasties (Cardin, Sarbanes). I think there were 10 candidates in the GOP primary. In 2006 (Cardin/Mfume), it was something like 17 or 18 candidates on the ballot (and some dropped out!). I even recognized a friend’s mom, no kidding. I think people just run as a hobby since MD Dems decide everything and leave us with no real choices.
albert Tue 9 Oct 7:46 PM
Exactly
Oh yeah, we know Bongino may finish third. I think he’s just in the wrong state. They won’t elect someone in the mold of Marella and certainly not Mathias out there of their primary. People who are more moderate and like to think before they answer questions are going to have to run as independents in order to truly shake up the process.
My impression is that Sarbanes was more effective than Cardin is, but I don’t know much about the younger Sarbanes.
moderateiadem Tue 9 Oct 8:55 PM