A majority of Iowans oppose a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage, according to the Des Moines Register’s latest statewide poll.

Selzer & Co surveyed 800 Iowa adults between February 12 and 15. About 29 percent of respondents identified as Republicans, 26 percent as Democrats, and 41 percent as independents. Full results with question wording are here. The poll included a series of questions about “issues that may be debated in the Iowa Legislature this year.” Just 38 percent of respondents said they favored an initiative to “pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.” About 56 percent of respondents opposed passing such an amendment, while 6 percent were not sure.

The same poll asked, “Would you say you favor or oppose the recent Iowa Supreme Court decision that allowed gay and lesbian couples to marry in Iowa, or do you not really care much one way or the other?” Results for that question:

22 percent favor strongly

8 percent just favor

33 percent don’t care much

7 percent just oppose

29 percent oppose strongly

From Monday’s Des Moines Register:

J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer and Co., which conducts the Iowa Poll, said the responses to the questions about a constitutional amendment and the high court ruling are not necessarily inconsistent.

Among Iowans who favor what the Supreme Court did, 94 percent oppose a constitutional amendment. Among those who oppose what the court did, 82 percent favor an amendment. In the middle are people who don’t care much about what the Supreme Court did, and they oppose a marriage amendment by 3-1, she said.

Marriage equality supporters are enthusiastically passing around the link to the latest Des Moines Register poll. One cautionary note: the results for legislative questions were taken from the entire respondent pool of Iowa adults. People who don’t care much about the issue and therefore don’t support passing a marriage amendment may not bother to vote if such an amendment ever appears on a statewide ballot. In contrast, hard-core opponents of equality will be highly motivated to GOTV for a marriage amendment.

I also suspect that opinion polls may slightly overstate support for marriage rights, because respondents may be reluctant to admit to a live interviewer that they oppose equal rights for gays and lesbians.

In the good news column, it will be at least four years before a constitutional amendment on marriage could come before Iowa voters. First, Republicans need hold their Iowa House majority and win control of the Iowa Senate this November. If that happens, both chambers of the state legislature are sure to approve a constitutional amendment on marriage in early 2013. Then, the GOP would have to retain control of the Iowa House and Senate in the 2014 elections before approving a constitutional amendment again in either 2015 or 2016. At that point, the amendment would go on the ballot for the next statewide election.

Between now and 2016, support for (or at least tolerance of) those marriages is likely to grow in Iowa, especially if voters in other states reject attempts to ban same-sex marriage.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.