Final GOP South Carolina debate discussion thread

With Rick Perry dropping out of the race to endorse Newt Gingrich this morning, four Republican presidential candidates remained for tonight’s CNN debate in South Carolina. Any comments about the debate or about Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul or Rick Santorum are welcome in this thread. I’ll update with my thoughts later–so far I’m most encouraged to hear some statements by the candidates against the Stop Online Piracy Act.

UPDATE: Missed the first part of the live broadcast, but finished watching the replay on CNN and added some comments after the jump.

Ron Paul didn’t say a thing that would move any undecided voter to his corner. He kept his supporters happy, but I didn’t hear anything new. His answer on abortion as a state issue made some sense but won’t go over well in South Carolina. At one point he seemed to admit that he’s in the campaign to spread a message rather than to win. Paul punched a lot less frequently on the anti-war rhetoric; I think he recognizes that it doesn’t resonate in this state. I doubt any committed Paul voters would jump ship after this debate, but I see him finishing fourth on Saturday.

This was the worst debate performance I’ve ever seen by Romney. Agree with Bleeding Heartland user albert in the comments, he came across as nervous and unprepared for obvious questions. It’s rare for a Republican debate audience to boo a candidate, but Romney drew boos and jeers with his non-committal answer on releasing multiple tax returns. Whatever he’s worried about exposing must be very embarrassing. If he’d gotten the tax returns out before now, the media wouldn’t be obsessing about this issue two days before an important primary.

Romney had a reasonable answer defending his “pro-life” record, but he sounded weak on health care reform and even referred to his own plan as “Romneycare.”

Romney’s best stretch came in the middle of the debate, when he mocked Gingrich for taking credit for economic expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. He also made fun of the fact that Reagan only mentioned Gingrich once in his diaries (alluding to an idea Gingrich floated that Reagan rejected). But Romney had too many bad moments for those lines to be memorable.

Santorum had a great night and delivered the best closing statement. I have always thought he did well in the debates. With fewer candidates in the mix, he gets more time to speak and a chance to answer every question. He didn’t make too big a deal out of the new results from Iowa. He presented his plan to support American manufacturing well. He landed some solid punches on the abortion issue–whispering into the microphone to highlight some Republicans’ reluctance to speak out against choice was effective. Incidentally, Santorum’s campaign is distributing copies of Romney’s 2002 Planned Parenthood questionnaire, showing several pro-choice answers. Reading the questionnaire, I liked how Romney twice called out the authors for writing questions with “confusing” double-negative wording.

Ignoring all evidence from every poll done this cycle, Santorum strung together a credible-sounding (to conservatives) case for why he would be more electable than Romney. The only odd moment from my perspective was when Santorum hedged on releasing his own tax returns, saying they were on his home computer and “I’m not home.” But no one’s going to remember that, because Romney stumbling over the same question is the story of the debate.

Santorum also undercut Gingrich’s claim to be a brave crusader for conservatism and effective leader as speaker of the House of Representatives. I think he had no choice, because there’s a real risk that South Carolina conservatives will abandon him for Gingrich in order to stop Romney.

I don’t have a clear read on how Gingrich did tonight. Overall I felt that he was a little flat, but maybe that’s because he was so “on” during Monday night’s debate. Right out of the gate, he got an embarrassing question about his ex-wife’s “open marriage” claims. Gingrich responded with an attack on John King and the mainstream media, and the crowd ate it up. But I am not convinced that any undecided women voters would buy his line about how we’ve all dealt with “personal pain,” and I don’t believe him when he says the story is false. I think he should have taken the path his surrogate Steve Deace took on MSNBC Thursday afternoon: chalk it up as one of many mistakes he made before the grace of God changed his life. Now he seems like a big jerk calling his wronged ex-wife a liar.

Like Santorum, Gingrich did a good job presenting himself as the most electable candidate, even though every poll shows Barack Obama would crush him. He defended his record on abortion and did a good job needling Romney about that issue and the missing tax returns.

I did laugh when Gingrich acknowledged, “I think grandiose thoughts.” The Romney campaign tried to spin its way out of a bad situation by mocking that comment with a press release listing various grandiose Gingrich statements. I enclose it below because it’s entertaining, but it won’t change the media narrative or the dynamic.

Gingrich’s answer on the immigration question was quite skillful; he managed to avoid a negative reaction from the crowd without walking back his previous comments about a path to legal residency for some undocumented immigrants.

Gingrich’s closing statement was better than Paul’s or Romney’s, but not as good as Santorum’s.

“I THINK GRANDIOSE THOUGHTS”

Mitt Romney Press | January 19, 2012

A Selection Of Speaker Gingrich’s Thoughts Over The Years

Gingrich on Gingrich:

“I Think I Am A Transformational Figure.” (PBS.org, 12/2/11)

“I Am Essentially A Revolutionary.” (Adam Clymer, “House Revolutionary,” The New York Times, 8/23/92)

“Philosophically, I Am Very Different From Normal Politicians … We Have Big Ideas.” (Andrew Ferguson, “What Does Newt Gingrich Know?” The New York Times, 6/29/11)

“I Have An Enormous Personal Ambition. I Want To Shift The Entire Planet. And I’m Doing It. … I Represent Real Power.” (Lois Romano, “Newt Gingrich, Maverick On The Hill,” The Washington Post, 1/3/85)

“I First Talked About [Saving Civilization] In August Of 1958.” (Robert Draper, “He’s Baaack!” GQ, 8/05)

“Over My Years In Public Life, I Have Become Known As An ‘Ideas Man.'” (Andrew Ferguson, “What Does Newt Gingrich Know?” The New York Times, 6/29/11)

“I Am The Longest Serving Teacher In The Senior Military, 23 Years Teaching One And Two-Star Generals And Admirals The Art Of War.” (GOP Presidential Candidates Debate, 12/15/11)

Speaker Gingrich Has Compared Himself to a Litany of Historical Leaders:

Ronald Reagan And Margaret Thatcher: “Gingrich said he learned a lot about himself in the political wilderness. … In the same breath, he compares himself to two conservative giants. With Gingrich, humility has its limits. ‘Because I am much like Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, I’m such an unconventional political figure that you really need to design a unique campaign that fits the way I operate and what I’m trying to do.'” (Jim Acosta, “Newt Gingrich Back From The Brink,” CNN.com, 11/16/11)

Abraham Lincoln: “Gingrich began his speech with remarks in which he predicted an economic recovery ‘literally’ the night Republicans would send Barack Obama home, and then announced, ‘I begin as Lincoln did.’ He argued that, like Lincoln, all his ideas came out of the Declaration of Independence.” (Jason Horowitz, “Newt Gingrich Draws Contrast With Romney,” The Washington Post, 12/1/11)

Woodrow Wilson: “He earned a PhD in history and taught college before winning a seat in Congress. He has often spoken of himself as a historian. In 1995, he told CNN’s Bob Franken: ‘I am the most seriously professorial politician since Woodrow Wilson.'” (John Pitney, “Five Myths About Newt Gingrich,” The Washington Post, 11/22/11)

Henry Clay: “Putting his tumultuous four years in the speaker’s chair into historical perspective, the former history professor compared himself to 19th century statesman Henry Clay, ‘the great compromiser’ who lost three bids for the presidency and served as speaker and secretary of State. Gingrich said that like Clay, he did more than just preside over the House. ‘I was not a presider, I was the leader,’ Gingrich said in the interview. ‘I think Henry Clay’s probably the only other speaker to have been a national leader and a speaker of the House simultaneously.'” (William Welch, “Gingrich: I’ll Go Down As Leader, Clinton As Tragedy,” USA Today, 8/30/99)

Charles De Gaulle: “‘At one point, I asked Gingrich, now a healthful-looking 65, about his sudden exit from Congress in 1998. ‘First of all, in the Toynbeean sense, I believe in departure and return,’ he told me. ‘In the what sense?’ I asked. ‘Arnold Toynbee,’ he replied matter-of-factly, referring to the English writer Arnold J. Toynbee, who wrote ‘A Study of History.’ ‘I believe in the sense that, you know, De Gaulle had to go to Colombey-les-Deux-Églises for 11 years.’ ‘I’m sorry?’ ‘Departure and return. And someone once said to me, if you don’t leave, you can’t come back, because you’ve never left.'” (Matt Bai, “Newt. Again.” New York Times Magazine, 2/25/09)

William Wallace: “‘If you go out and see what’s happening in the Tea Party, the last thing you want is a passionless election,’ Gingrich says, then refers to the epic movie about the battle for Scottish independence in the 13th century. ‘Remember Braveheart? These people want somebody who plants a flag in the ground, gives a speech and yells “Charge!” That is, someone like him.” (Susan Page, “Rising From The Pack, Gingrich Invites Scrutiny,” USA Today, 11/21/11)

Pericles: “In a long interview on May 4, 1992, devoted almost exclusively to the topic of Gingrich, [former White House aide Richard] Darman concluded that Gingrich was ‘an unstable personality’ who talks about four or five great people in history, including Pericles and himself.” (Bob Woodward, “In His Debut In Washington’s Power Struggles, Gingrich Threw A Bomb,” The Washington Post, 12/24/11)

The Duke Of Wellington: “Obsessed recently with Arthur Wellesley, the Duke of Wellington, [Gingrich] likened the appropriations triumph to the way the British expeditionary force maneuvered against the French during the Peninsular War, a campaign in Portugal and Spain in the early 1800s that eventually led to Wellington’s ascendance and Napoleon’s abdication.” (Michael Weisskopf and David Maraniss, “In A Moment Of Crisis, The Speaker Persuades,” The Washington Post, 8/13/95)

A Viking:  “With his machine-gun staccato delivery, [Gingrich] is the center of attention. He terms himself a ‘Viking.'” (“Gingrich Delivers For GOP Faithful,” South Bend Tribune, 7/28/95)

Thomas Edison: “Once he took over GOPAC in 1986, the organization became what he called the creative thinking and research group of the Republican Party. ‘We are on the way to becoming the Bell Labs of politics,’ Mr. Gingrich proclaimed. ‘That’s the closest model you can find to what we do, and nobody else is in that business. The first thing you need at Bell Labs is a Thomas Edison, and the second thing you need is a real understanding of how you go from scientific theory to a marketable product.'” (Katharine Q. Seelye, “Birth Of A Vision,” The New York Times, 12/3/95)

Vince Lombardi: “By four in the morning, [Gingrich] had moved on to football metaphors. What the Republicans had accomplished, Gingrich said, was like the old Green Bay Packers sweep during the days of Coach Vince Lombardi: The opposition knows you are going to run at them, but they cannot stop you. Lombardi, Gingrich said, believed that the team that doesn’t break in the fourth quarter wins.” (Michael Weisskopf and David Maraniss, “In A Moment Of Crisis, The Speaker Persuades,” The Washington Post, 8/13/95)

The Wright Brothers:  “At that dinner, held in a convention center in Johnston, Gingrich sought to add more emotional lift into his stump speech. ‘I am asking you to embark with me on a voyage of invention and discovery,’ he said, ‘to be as bold and as brave as the Wright brothers.'” (Jason Horowitz, “Newt Gingrich Draws Contrast With Romney,” The Washington Post, 12/1/11)

Moses: “On this night, Gingrich congratulated his troops on standing united and inspired them with stories about Charles de Gaulle’s heroism and George Washington at Valley Forge … At one point, he likened himself, lightheartedly, to Moses. He’d help them cross the Red Sea once again, Gingrich vowed, but only if they promised, this time, to stay on the other side.” (Matt Bai, “Newt. Again.” New York Times Magazine, 2/25/09)

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  • I missed 30 min in the middle

    based on what I’ve seen.

    1. Santorum — hist best debate. Prepared on pander-points and oppo research, confident.

    1. Gingrich — solid, but not spectacular. For all who claimed that Newt condescended to AAs by saying “Juan,” I just heard “John, we’re allowed to plan our own campaigns, and it’s not according to your debate schedule.” IOW, Newtie condescends to everyone. Also prepared on his pander-points, particularly Port of Charleston …

    3. Romney is nervous, and it shows. He’s getting killed on the issue of releasing tax returns, last debate and this one. He just isn’t doing very well. Not prepared on pander-points. Too dependent on Hillary-like inevitability.

    4. Ron Paul is getting dangerously close to broken record mode. Stood out on sending forces from Afghanistan to the TX border, but not much else.

    What does this mean? Romney has to start praying that Santorum largely eats into Gingrich’s vote share. Romney’s lead is slipping away with these poor debates.

    • I kept asking myself

      is Romney struggling because he’s playing not to lose? Or is the problem that a smaller number of competitors now have more time to spend attacking him? Or is it just a timing problem with the media finally getting obsessed with tax returns? I don’t recall seeing him struggle so much in any other public setting.

      • smaller format

        favors Santorum, but if you’re Romney, that’s what you want. Gingrich & Santorum are splitting 50% of the electorate at about 35% – 15%. Paul isn’t going to pick up new support.

        I expect a 72-hr barrage of attacks on Newt — it is in the interest of all involved, even Paul, who is running to be heard and to promote his son IMO, which is why he has been fairly hands-off with Romney to date.

        I think Romney was already thinking about the GE, and the Gingrich surge took him by surprise. He was unprepared and relying on canned responses. A different way of putting it is that he really doesn’t want to spend one additional minute putting more on the record in a GOP primary. There’s zero to be gained. He has to practically promise to escort “illegals” to the border personally.

        I’m sure he thought the “soon, soon” on the taxes would fly in the last debate, so that he’s sinking now on it must be a shock.

        Santorum’s pitch on Reagan Democrats isn’t a bad one. He could potentially give Obama a very hard time in this area, and not just because Obama’s written them off.

        Santorum’s pitch/plan on manufacturing is not realistic in any way without a fundamental change in trajectory, given policies in place today. The problem for Obama is that he can’t argue this without risk of losing his own base, lower-income Dems of all stripes.


        These anecdotes underscore a major trend in China: skyrocketing cost of labor.

        In the US, it’s the opposite. Since 2000, real wages (adjusted for inflation) have declined. The White House even touts this horrid statistic in its paper, Investing in America: Building an Economy That Lasts.

        Clearly, the paper is not intended for the rank and file. It outlines how current policies are making America competitive with low-wage countries like China. And one of the principal strategies is … lowering wages. Graph from the White House paper:

        One detail in Bloom’s Iowa piece comes to mind: UIowa’s recruitment of Chinese journalism undergrads. Not going to look it up, but we know they pay substantially more in tuition. There’s a message in that graph above. While Germany has taken a more protectionist attitude and boosted manufacturing, the message from US leaders (both parties) has been that Americans are expendable and easily replaced. People need to wake up.

        “Illegals” are not illegal, they are intentionally undocumented. High-skill manufacturing is going overseas, well-documented this week in the press. Basic research is gutted.

        University environments are becoming training grounds for corporate sponsors. What is deemed efficient is matching very particular skill sets to current corporate needs, very similar to Vilsack, C’s “apprenticeship” program. Note that in academia, an “apprenticeship” means sitting in graduate school forever for your watered-down advanced degree.

        Why the emphasis on retention? Because … there will be no more jobs for HS “graduates” without basic skills. Now, most of the available US jobs will not require a college degree, just as Christie Vilsack has been telling NW Iowans, because higher education will not be the opportunity it once was given a global market for demand (paying students) and supply (from overseas, already better trained, cheaper). So the idea is to get them out of high school prepared to read the corporate training manual during their apprenticeship (a wage, but a pitiful one), to be repeated with changing technologies that support even the lowest-paying service jobs.  

        There is a tremendous opportunity for a candidate to change this trajectory, because even today’s upper middle class should be worrying. Instead, all that’s on offer is faux-populist Santorum. In principle, he could try punching his way through in a GE (holding punches as needed so that people fundamentally remain clueless) while Obama would have a very difficult time explaining why his administration touts falling wages, and why the US pursues policies different from, say, Germany’s. This isn’t a problem with Romney as an opponent.

        • Paul definitely seems to be holding back

          I believe in the theory that he will bargain for a prime-time GOP convention speaking slot for Rand.

          I agree that Santorum could give Obama real trouble among Reagan Democrats and working-class whites. Although I would expect Obama to win, I also think many liberals are underestimating the appeal of the Santorum message on the manufacturing economy. Also, the people making fun of him for bringing his dead baby home from the hospital are complete morons.

        • Buddy Roemer

          Buddy Roemer should have been allowed to enter at least one debate, he would have seriously discussed manufacturing and trade policy.  I’m considering writing Roemer in as a protest vote in the GE, it’s a stupid idea, but at this point I want someone to vote for that deals with the main issue facing working class people in my estimation.  

          • I don't think

            writing in a candidate is a stupid option. It’s registering a protest just like caucusing for “uncommitted” was for me.

  • Roemer

    I just watched Real Time with Bill Maher.  Former governor Buddy Roemer was on it.  I don’t think Roemer is on the ballot in South Carolina.  Its too bad.  At times Roemer must be the last sane repubican.  He is almost like a missionary in that party.

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