Republican Ben Lange will formally announce today that he is exploring a second campaign against three-term incumbent Bruce Braley in Iowa’s first Congressional district.

Few people in northeast Iowa had heard of Lange, an attorney and former Congressional staffer, when he announced his 2010 campaign. At the time, IA-01 didn’t appear likely to be competitive. Braley outperformed Barack Obama in his district in 2008, winning with more than 64 percent of the vote. Another candidate thought about but decided against challenging Braley in 2010.

I thought Lange was the luckiest challenger in the country when the 501(c)4 group American Future Fund decided to commit big money to taking Braley down. The group’s leader Nick Ryan is from northeast Iowa and had run campaigns for Braley’s predecessor, Representative Jim Nussle. Between August 2010 and election day, the American Future Fund spent approximately $1.4 million bashing Braley with direct mail, robocalls, television and radio commercials. The outside money left Lange free to run positive advertising with a generic, upbeat message. Lange fell just short.

A map of Iowa’s new Congressional districts is at the bottom of his post. The new IA-01 has roughly the same Democratic lean as Braley’s current district. Both have a partisan voting index of D+5, meaning that in the last two presidential elections the district voted about 5 points more Democratic than the country as a whole.

There are two big differences. The new district is much larger, containing 20 rather than 12 counties. In addition, the most-populous county from Braley’s old district (Scott, including the Quad Cities area) is now in IA-02. Linn County (Cedar Rapids area) is now the largest county in IA-01. That’s a great trade for the incumbent; Lange beat Braley in Scott in 2010, whereas Representative Dave Loebsack easily beat Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Linn. Heck, Linn gave the edge to Governor Chet Culver even as Terry Branstad carried the state by 10 points.

Speaking to James Q. Lynch yesterday, Lange said

the encouragement from Linn County Republicans has “probably been most instrumental” in taking this step.

Redistricting split off Linn County from the current 2nd District. As a result, Lange said, Linn County Republicans feel “unshackled from Johnson County,” a Democratic stronghold.

“They’re telling me ‘folks believed in you last time when you came from nowhere, no money, no organization, no name ID and you lost by only 2 points. Just imagine what you could do this time around,'” he said.

That’s a slap in the face to Linn County business owner Steve Rathje, who’s already announced a challenge to Braley. Rathje lost the 2008 GOP primary for U.S. Senate and the 2010 GOP primary for IA-02. Lange will be favored to win next year’s IA-01 primary if he goes forward with a 2012 campaign. On the other hand, recruiters for the National Republican Congressional Committee have reportedly spoken with former Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate as well. Pate has a strong base of support in Linn County, and older Republican voters across the district may remember him too. He served one term as secretary of state before running for governor in 1998, losing the GOP nomination.

Assuming Lange is the GOP nominee in IA-01, he will face an uphill battle against Braley. As of July 2011, the new first district contained 169,769 registered Democrats, 135,836 registered Republicans and 190,798 no-party voters. Although Braley has to compete in some unfamiliar counties, his new territory includes Poweshiek, where he grew up. Unless something very unusual happens, Democratic turnout across the district should be higher in a presidential election year than it was in 2010, when voters almost sent Braley packing.

Both parties will be doing heavy GOTV work for down-ticket candidates in IA-01 next year. Click here to view the new Iowa Senate map. IA-01 contains all or part of many districts that are likely to be competitive, such as Senate districts 26, 28, 30, 34, 36 and 48. There are bound to be many close Iowa House races in these areas too, but the battle for control of the Iowa Senate will be the top priority for Democrats and Republicans in 2012.

I take issue with this passage in Lynch’s report:

A first-time candidate in 2010, Lange gained national attention when he nearly knocked off Braley. The two-term Democrat outspent Lange by a five-to-one margin to eke out a 48.47 percent to 46.52 percent win. A pair of conservative third-party candidates captured nearly 6,200 votes – more than the 1.95 percent margin that separated Braley and Lange.

True, IA-01 was one of the few races in Iowa where third-party candidates received more votes than the margin between the two main competitors. But it’s misleading to say that Braley outspent Lange without mentioning the huge money dropped by the American Future Fund. Braley had some outside support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and labor-backed groups, but not nearly as much as Ryan’s group spent against Braley. I doubt that the pro-Braley spending exceeded the anti-Braley spending in the district.

I expect the American Future Fund to become involved in the IA-01 race again, especially if Lange is the GOP nominee. In July, Lange endorsed presidential candidate Rick Santorum, for whom Nick Ryan is working as a paid consultant.

Any relevant thoughts are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: Braley was asked about Lange’s announcement on Wednesday:

“I have no input into the Republican nominating process that will decide who my opponent will be in 2012,” Braley said. “I’m focusing right now on doing my job and getting ready for this important field hearing in Waterloo next week, which is what the voters in the 1st District of Iowa elected me to do.”

The field hearing of the U.S. House Veterans Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 17, beginning at 10 a.m. at the Waterloo Community Schools Education Service Center. The focus will be Veterans Job Creation and Braley intends to hear testimony from both local employers and veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Here’s the full text of Lange’s campaign announcement:

Over the past several months, I have been humbled by the encouragement from Iowans all across the political spectrum. A question I have been frequently asked is: “Ben, will you consider running for Congress again?”

Today I am answering this question in the affirmative by establishing a 2012 congressional exploratory committee in Iowa’s new 1st congressional district. The purpose of this committee is to determine, among other things, whether sufficient numbers of Iowans are willing to invest their time, energy, and resources to finish the job we started last cycle.

My initial decision to run for congress was influenced by the trajectory of our country towards higher unemployment, a shriveling economy, dramatically more federal control over our lives, and the impact this would have on my two (now three) little girls.

I was concerned that the policies advocated by President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Bruce Braley would do little to stem the financial problems we are facing and would instead cause sustained harm to our economic future and our way of life. Mounting evidence suggests my original concerns were well-founded and nothing has changed my belief that Iowans deserve better.

My decision to establish an exploratory committee should indicate to Iowans of all stripes that my family and I are again willing to make the sacrifices in our personal and professional lives to finish the job we started last cycle, but I am going to need your help.

Removing entrenched politicians is never easy. And over the next several weeks, I will be making a determination of whether the people of Iowa are serious about the 1st congressional district and whether they are willing to invest sufficient resources to win in 2012.

To demonstrate your commitment to this race, please visit www.langeforcongress.com and make a contribution of $20.12 to show your support. We have unfinished business in Iowa’s 1st congressional district and, together, I believe we could send Bruce Braley home for good.