A strong Democratic ground game wasn’t quite enough to overcome the partisan lean and spending disparity in Iowa House district 100.

Republican Blaine Watkins will be the next representative for the district covering most of Lee County, after he won the March 11 special election by a surprisingly narrow margin.

Unofficial results indicate that Watkins received 2,749 votes to 2,574 for Democrat Nannette Griffin (51.5 percent to 48.2 percent). Voters living in this area preferred Donald Trump to Kamala Harris in the 2024 general election by 62.2 percent to 35.4 percent, according to Bleeding Heartland’s analysis of precinct-level results.

THE WINNING FORMULA FOR WATKINS

Griffin carried the early vote and two of the six precincts where polls were open on March 11: one in Fort Madison, where she has owned and operated a business for many years, and one in Keokuk. Watkins carried the other four election-day precincts by margins large enough to overcome Griffin’s advantage in absentee ballots. His best precinct was in Donnellson, where he grew up.

The Lee County Republican Party posted this table on Facebook, showing precinct-level results:

Watkins’ victory is even less impressive when you consider how much Republicans and GOP-aligned groups spent to pull him over the line.

Filings submitted to the Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure Board indicate that as of March 4, the Republican Party of Iowa had spent more than $73,000 in kind to support Watkins, including more than $45,000 on television advertising, more than $20,000 on digital advertising, and more than $5,000 on radio advertising. That doesn’t include any funds the state party spent during the final week of the campaign, which will be reported later.

In addition, independent expenditure reports show the Koch-funded organization Americans for Prosperity spent nearly $69,000 to boost Watkins’ campaign: more than $56,000 for paid canvassers, more than $10,300 on mailers, and $2,550 for digital ads.

The social conservative group The FAMiLY Leader spent another $10,500 to support the Republican candidate: $7,500 on digital and streaming TV ads, $1,000 on door knocking and texts, and $2,000 on consulting and design.

In contrast, the Iowa Democratic Party spent just over $36,000 to support Griffin, including $16,000 on digital ads, about $17,500 on direct mail, and $1,767 on postcards. Independent expenditure reports show no outside groups invested in supporting the Democratic candidate during this short campaign.

HOW GRIFFIN OUTPERFORMED THE DEMOCRATIC BASELINE

Many volunteers helped knock doors or make phone calls on behalf of Griffin, following the playbook Mike Zimmer used to win the recent special election in Iowa Senate district 35. That would likely have succeeded if House district 100 were a bit less red.

Zimmer’s vote share in Senate district 35 was about 13 points higher than the Democratic share of the presidential vote in November. Griffin’s share of the vote on March 11 was likewise about 13 points higher than what Harris received in House district 100. But that wasn’t enough to carry the day in Lee County, a onetime Democratic stronghold that swung far to the right in the Trump era.

Watkins’ relative lack of life experience may also have been a factor in his underwhelming vote share. He just graduated from college in December, and his only significant work experience has been clerking for Republican legislators over the past five years.

Griffin emphasized inadequate state funding of public schools at campaign events. Meanwhile, Democrats sought to define Watkins as a “bought and paid for GOP pawn” who lives in Des Moines while being registered to vote at his parents’ home.

Watkins portrayed his clerking experience as an asset, saying at a recent candidate forum that he understands “how it works” at the capitol and can “have conversations with those that I’ve worked with for years,” the Daily Gate City newspaper reported.

At the same forum, the Republican candidate inadvertently reinforced the Democratic message that he will do whatever those in power tell him to do:

When asked if she would stand up to her party if it’s in the best interest of Lee County, Griffin pointed out she is an independent voter who has voted both sides of the aisle.

“If what they’re trying to push hurts the people of Lee County,” she said, “I will not support it.”

Watkins said “if we had something that went against the county, I’m obviously going to air our ideas and put them out there and say ‘hey this is kind of what my area is facing.’

He said he would ask “is there a way we can work this in, or is it done and be done. And if it’s a be done, I’ll be done.”

LOOKING AHEAD

Once Watkins is sworn in later this month, the Republican majority in the Iowa House will return to 67-33, the same as before State Representative Martin Graber passed away in January.

House Speaker Pat Grassley said in a statement released on March 11, “Iowa House Republicans have a proven track record of campaigning on the issues most important to Iowans and delivering on the promises we make. This election result is just one more example of Iowans backing our agenda of common sense, lower taxes and spending, and freedom.”

Iowa Democratic Party state chair Rita Hart put an optimistic spin on the election result:

Tonight, Nannette Griffin proved Democrats are on their way back – performing competitively in a district that Donald Trump won by 27 points. Democrats from across the state came together and knocked doors, made phone calls, and worked hard and tonight’s results show their efforts moved the needle in HD-100. I’d like to thank Nannette for her willingness to step into a leadership role in the community where she has lived, raised her family and started and successfully run her own small business. As long as Democrats who know their communities as well as Nannette does are willing to step up, this race shows we are already gaining significant ground in Republican districts before the midterms.

Democrats did not field a candidate against Graber in this district in 2024. They should not give Watkins a pass next year.

During the special election campaign, he defended the school voucher program, which could be a liability next November, depending on how public school enrollment changes in local school districts. He may vote for other unpopular policies during the remainder of this legislative session and next year.

In all, 5,336 residents of House district 100 cast ballots in the special election. That’s about half the number of ballots cast for this state House race in the 2022 midterm election. To beat Watkins in 2026, a challenger would need both high Democratic turnout and a clear advantage among no-party voters.

---

---

Top photo of Jeff Kaufmann with Blaine Watkins at a March 7 meet and greet in Keokuk was first published on Facebook by the Lee County Republican Party.