The House Majority PAC, one of the biggest spenders supporting Democrats in U.S. House races, has confirmed Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts are among its “top targets” for the 2026 election cycle.
The PAC also put IA-02 on a list of sixteen House districts that “could become competitive” in 2026.
TWO IOWA DISTRICTS TARGETED
A December 11 memo listed IA-01 and IA-03 among the 29 districts where House Majority PAC will focus on recruiting good candidates, doing “qualitative and quantitative research to understand the most effective persuasion and mobilization messaging for key voters,” and helping candidates gain media coverage on traditional and newer platforms.
House Majority PAC can give money directly to candidates’ campaigns, but devotes most of its resources to independent expenditures that are not coordinated with candidates.
During the 2024 election cycle, the PAC spent more than $3.9 million on the IA-01 race and $1.6 million on IA-03, according to campaign finance data compiled by OpenSecrets. Most of those funds went toward negative advertising about Republican incumbents Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn.
Miller-Meeks was among the worst-performing House Republicans in the country, winning her rematch against Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by a 0.2 percent margin (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent) in a district that Donald Trump carried by 53.3 percent to 44.9 percent for Kamala Harris.
Nunn ran roughly even with Trump, defeating Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam by 51.8 percent to 47.9 percent in a district Trump carried by 51.3 percent to 46.9 percent.
The December 11 memo is not a guarantee of heavy spending in targeted districts. During the 2022 cycle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the campaign arm of U.S. House Democrats) put Iowa’s first and second districts in the top tier of its “red to blue” program. But the House Majority PAC spent just $29,150 on the IA-01 race in 2022 and nothing in IA-02, where Democrat Liz Mathis was running against GOP incumbent Ashley Hinson.
Still, keeping the first and third districts on the top target list could help Democratic recruiting efforts after another discouraging election cycle in Iowa.
Bohannan has hinted she plans to run for Congress a third time, saying in a recent email to supporters, “Let’s hold our heads high, regroup, and carry this momentum forward. Our work isn’t done – it’s just beginning.” That email also noted, correctly, that Bohannan’s campaign “outperformed Harris-Walz by 8.2% in the district – more than any other Red-to-Blue candidate in the country.”
Baccam has not publicly commented on whether he would consider a second Congressional campaign.
Democrats may also try to recruit former U.S. Representative Cindy Axne, who defeated GOP incumbent David Young in 2018, won a rematch against Young in 2020, and lost to Nunn by less than a 1 percent margin in 2022. Axne’s current position as Senior Advisor for Rural Engagement, Delivery and Prosperity at the U.S. Department of Agriculture will presumably end once Trump returns to office.
IA-02 NAMED “DISTRICT TO WATCH”
The December 11 memo put IA-02, covering most of northeast Iowa, in the category of districts that could become competitive next cycle “with quality candidates and strong campaigns.”
In 2018, Democratic challenger Abby Finkenauer defeated GOP incumbent Rod Blum in a similarly configured district, which was then numbered IA-01. The House Majority PAC spent nearly $500,000 on that race, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent about $448,000.
The House Majority PAC spent about $2.2 million defending Finkenauer’s seat in 2020, and the DCCC spent more than $1.3 million. But northeast Iowa contains several “pivot counties” that voted for Barack Obama twice and then repeatedly for Trump. Hinson rode Trump’s coattails to victory.
National groups did not target this district in 2022 or 2024. In the latest election, Trump had nearly a 10-point advantage over Harris (54.1 percent to 44.2 percent) across the 22 counties in IA-02. Hinson won a third term by an even more comfortable margin: 57.1 percent to 41.5 percent for Sarah Corkery.
I would guess that Democrats won’t invest in IA-02 unless it becomes an open seat. Hinson is widely expected to run for U.S. Senate in 2028 and could run in 2026, if Senator Joni Ernst lands some position in Trump’s administration. Ernst has been floated as a possible contender for secretary of defense if the Senate does not confirm Trump’s nominee for that job, Pete Hegseth.