Eleventh in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Many factors helped Iowa Republicans expand their already large state legislative majorities in 2024. Two of the most important were Donald Trump’s dominance in the presidential race, and the continued decline in ticket-splitting.

By my calculations, Trump carried 71 of the 100 Iowa House districts, up from 63 state House districts the last time he was on the ballot in 2020. In all four Democratic-held House districts that flipped this year, voters preferred Trump. That helped Republican Ryan Weldon defeat State Representative Molly Buck in House district 41 (Ankeny), David Blom defeat Sue Cahill in House district 52 (Marshalltown), Jennifer Smith defeat Chuck Isenhart in House district 72 (Dubuque), and Christian Hermanson win the open House district 59 (Mason City).

Trump also carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot, including both where Democratic incumbents lost: Mike Pike defeated Nate Boulton in Senate district 20 (eastern Polk County), and Dave Sires defeated Eric Giddens in Senate district 38 (mostly located in Black Hawk County). The only Iowa GOP lawmaker to lose in 2024, State Senator Brad Zaun, faced Matt Blake in a district where voters preferred Kamala Harris for president.

Ticket-splitting used to be more common in Iowa. Republicans maintained control of the state House in 2012, even as Barack Obama carried 61 of the 100 districts that year. (No wonder few observers expected Iowa’s hard shift to the right, beginning in 2016.)

But in 2020 and again this year, only seven Iowa legislators managed to win in districts where voters preferred the other party’s presidential nominee.

I calculated the 2024 numbers using certified precinct-level vote totals from the Iowa Secretary of State’s election results website. Figures on the 2020 presidential vote in each district come from the Iowa House and Iowa Senate maps Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.

This post covers the six Iowa House members and one state senator in descending order, by how much they outperformed the top of their own party’s ticket.

JOSH TUREK IN HOUSE DISTRICT 20

This district covering part of Council Bluffs and Carter Lake in Pottawattamie County was among the top GOP targets this year, in part because Democratic State Representative Josh Turek won his first race in 2022 by just six votes.

The Iowa GOP spent at least $330,000 on this race, and the Koch-funded conservative group Americans for Prosperity spent thousands more on mail and canvassing supporting the Republican challenger, James Wassell.

House district 20 was also a promising target because registered Republicans slightly outnumbered Democrats, and Trump received 50.5 percent of the 2020 presidential vote in these precincts, while Joe Biden received 47.1 percent.

Democrats spent more than $280,000 defending this seat, and Turek spent countless hours doing direct voter contact—often dragging himself and his wheelchair up several steps to reach the doors.

Trump carried the district by a wider margin this year: 6,226 votes to 5,270 for Harris (53.15 percent to 44.99 percent). But Turek defeated Wassell by 5,881 votes to 5,320 (52.47 percent to 47.47 percent).

In all twelve precincts, Turek won not only a higher percentage of the vote than Harris, but more raw votes—which is remarkable, since many people “drop off” after voting for president and don’t mark their ballots in legislative races.

Turek’s overperformance by a little more than 13 points was the largest for any successful Democratic legislative candidate in 2024.

It’s worth noting, however, that two House Democrats (Todd Prichard and Wes Breckenridge) managed to win re-election in 2020 even as Trump carried their districts by margins of roughly 62-37 and 57-41. Iowans used to be more willing to support Democrats down ballot, even if they preferred a Republican for president.

One more bit of trivia: Turek’s predecessor, Democratic State Representative Charlie McConkey, was re-elected in the previous version of this Council Bluffs/Carter Lake district, even as Trump carried the district in 2020.

RICK OLSON IN HOUSE DISTRICT 39

I had my eye on this race, even though neither the Iowa Democratic Party nor the Iowa GOP spent any money here. Although I didn’t think long-serving State Representative Rick Olson was in serious danger of losing, working-class areas like eastern Polk County are no longer as heavily Democratic as they used to be.

In 2020, Biden carried the precincts that are now part of House district 39 by about 51.5 percent to 46.3 percent for Trump. Democrats also had a sizeable voter registration advantage going into the November election.

There was a big swing this year, as Trump received 7,393 votes across the district to 7,283 for Harris (49.58 percent to 48.85 percent). Olson defeated his GOP challenger Troy Clark comfortably, however: 7,511 votes to 6,216 (54.58 percent to 45.17 percent). He received a higher vote share than Harris in all twelve precincts and more raw votes than the Democratic presidential nominee in nine of them.

Put another way, Olson outperformed the top of the ticket by a little more than 10 points.

J.D. SCHOLTEN IN HOUSE DISTRICT 1

I considered including this district in my preview of sixteen Iowa House races to watch, but decided against it, in part because first-term Democratic State Representative J.D. Scholten is so well-known in the area. Republicans did not even field a candidate against him in 2022, the first time he ran for the Iowa House.

I also assumed Harris would carry the district, since Democrats have a voter registration advantage here, and residents of these Sioux City precincts voted for Biden in 2020 by 53.1 percent to 44.9 percent. Neither party spent significant resources on this race.

To my surprise, when I looked at the precinct-level results, I learned that Trump received 4,603 votes across House district 1, and Harris just 4,458 votes (49.88 percent to 48.30 percent).

At the same time, Scholten defeated GOP challenger Josh Steinhoff by 4,615 votes to 4,017 (53.40 percent to 46.48 percent). He outperformed the top of the ticket by about 8.5 points and received more votes than Harris in all but one of the eleven precincts.

Scholten had less time than his fellow legislators to campaign this summer, due to his unexpected return to professional baseball—one of the great Iowa sports stories of 2024. But the local media coverage he received was probably worth more than however many doors he would have knocked during a normal campaign. In September, Scholten delivered his jersey to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.

EDDIE ANDREWS IN HOUSE DISTRICT 43

State Representative Eddie Andrews did it again. The only Republican who won in an Iowa legislative district that voted for Harris was also the only Republican to win an Iowa House district that Biden carried in 2020. House district 43 covers the suburb of Johnston northwest of Des Moines.

This race was unlike most of the other targeted Iowa House races. The Republican Party of Iowa spent only about $85,500 defending Andrews, none of it on attack ads against his Democratic challenger Tiara Mays-Sims. Democrats actually outspent Republicans in this district, airing a hard-hitting TV ad about the incumbent’s extreme anti-abortion views.

The swing toward Trump in this district was much smaller than the statewide swing of about 5 points. Precincts now part of House district 43 favored Biden by 51.4 percent to 46.6 percent in 2020. This year, Harris received 9,957 votes and Trump 9,177 votes (51.06 percent to 47.06 percent).

Andrews received 9,598 votes to 8,959 for Mays-Sims (50.89 percent to 47.5 percent). He outperformed the top of the ticket by about 7.4 points and received more raw votes than Trump in nine of the eleven precincts.

Since suburbs are home to many “never Trump” Republicans, I totaled the precinct results for the third Congressional district race as well. My thought process was, votes for GOP incumbent Zach Nunn and Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam would indicate whether Andrews won because of moderate Republicans who couldn’t stomach Trump but checked the box for all other GOP candidates.

As it turned out, voters in House district 43 cast 9,630 ballots for Baccam and 9,466 for Nunn (a 50.29 percent to 49.44 percent advantage for the Democrat). So Andrews outperformed a sitting Republican member of Congress as well as the former president.

MONICA KURTH IN HOUSE DISTRICT 98

Even though I’ve covered Iowa legislative elections since 2008, every cycle there is at least one close race I didn’t see coming. This year it was House district 98, covering part of Davenport. Neither party spent money here, assuming Democratic State Representative Monica Kurth’s seat was safe.

Even though Democrats had a voter registration advantage going into the November election, and Biden carried these precincts in 2020 by 52.7 percent to 44.9 percent, Trump outpolled Harris across House district 98 by 6,850 votes to 6,618 (49.88 percent to 48.19 percent).

The House race was recount-close, as Kurth defeated GOP challenger Nathan Ramker by 6,585 votes to 6,540 (50.06 percent to 49.72 percent). The Democrat’s main weak spots were the precincts in Buffalo and Buffalo township, areas that weren’t part of her district prior to redistricting in late 2021. Ramker netted about 800 votes in those two precincts alone.

Nevertheless, Kurth outperformed the top of the ticket by about 2 points.

I expect both parties to pay more attention to this district in future election cycles.

HEATHER MATSON IN HOUSE DISTRICT 42

The “swingiest” Iowa House district covers part of Ankeny, a fast-growing suburb north of Des Moines. Democrat Heather Matson defeated a GOP incumbent in the previous version of this district in 2018, then lost by a narrow margin in 2020. Redistricting made this seat slightly more favorable to Democrats, and Matson won it back by 23 votes in 2022.

Republicans spent at least $375,000 on this year’s race in House district 42, not counting money invested by Americans for Prosperity. Democrats spent nearly $200,000 defending Matson’s seat.

As in the Johnston area district, the swing toward Trump was much smaller here than in most of Iowa. Precincts now part of House district 42 favored Biden in 2020 by 49.0 percent to 48.5 percent. Trump received 9,308 votes across the district this year, and Harris 9.186 votes (49.49 percent to 48.84 percent).

Matson defeated Heather Stephenson by 9,108 votes to 8,959 (50.34 percent to 49.51 percent), which was about 1.5 points better than the top of the Democratic ticket.

Since voting patterns in Ankeny are similar to those in the northwest suburbs of Des Moines, I looked at the Congressional voting as well. Nunn did a little better than Trump, gaining 9,300 votes across House district 42, compared to 9,012 votes for Baccam (50.68 percent to 49.11 percent). So Matson outperformed the Democratic nominee for Congress as well as the presidential candidate.

SARAH TRONE GARRIOTT IN SENATE DISTRICT 14

Only one Iowa Senate candidate won this year in a district that favored the other party’s candidate for president. Democratic incumbent Sarah Trone Garriott also won by the narrowest margin of any Iowa legislative race in 2024. Senate district 14 covers much of Dallas County, including the suburbs of Waukee and West Des Moines, a little bit of Clive, and the towns of Adel and Van Meter.

This was one of the most expensive Iowa legislative races of all time, as the parties combined to spend more than $1.5 million.

As in the other suburban districts mentioned above, voters here swung toward Trump by a little, not a lot. Precincts now part of Senate district 14 favored Biden in 2020 by 49.8 percent to 48.1 percent. This year, Trump received 20,773 votes across the district, and Harris 20,626 votes (49.21 percent to 48.86 percent).

Trone Garriott managed to defeat Republican challenger Mark Hanson by 20,467 votes to 20,438 following a recount (49.96 percent to 49.89 percent). That’s about 0.4 points better than the top of the Democratic ticket.

Since Waukee and West Des Moines are also home to many “never Trump” Republicans, I checked the Congressional numbers here. Nunn did better than Trump, winning 21,150 votes for Congress across Senate district 14, compared to 20,140 votes for Baccam (51.09 percent to 48.65 percent).

Put another way, Trone Garriott received 327 more votes than Baccam, and Hanson received 712 fewer votes than Nunn.

Maybe Republicans shouldn’t have eliminated the straight ticket voting option for Iowans prior to the 2018 election cycle.

A forthcoming post in the “lessons of 2024” series will explore the campaign strategies of these and other legislative candidates who outperformed the top of their party’s ticket.