For the first time in six years, Iowa’s junior Senator Joni Ernst will not have a position on the leadership team of U.S. Senate Republicans.

On November 13, members of the GOP caucus chose Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas over Ernst for Senate Republican Conference chair, the third-ranking leadership position. According to Andrew Desiderio of Punchbowl News, the vote was 35 to 18.

ERNST HAD JOINED LEADERSHIP IN HER FIRST TERM

First elected in 2014, Ernst joined GOP leadership shortly after the 2018 elections, when she competed against Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska for the fifth-ranking leadership position. She moved up to the fourth-ranking role after the 2022 elections.

Cotton was considered the favorite for conference chair going into the November 13 leadership vote, in part because he has a better relationship with President-elect Donald Trump. Cotton was on Trump’s short list for vice president earlier this year and was one of just seven people to get a speaking slot at all of the last three Republican National Conventions. Ernst spoke during prime time at the RNC in 2016 and 2020 but was snubbed this year—possibly because even though she did not endorse a presidential candidate before the Iowa caucuses, she was widely perceived to favor Nikki Haley. Ernst didn’t endorse Trump until March 6—the same day Haley ended her presidential campaign.

Ernst has not publicly commented on the leadership elections, other than to congratulate her colleagues in a post on X/Twitter.

The GOP caucus elected Senator John Thune of South Dakota as the next majority leader. Ernst and Iowa’s senior Senator Chuck Grassley did not publicly endorse a contender for that role prior to the voting, but they were believed to be backing Senator John Cornyn of Texas. Many of Trump’s closest allies, including some Iowa Republican activists, were pulling for Senator Rick Scott of Florida. Senators eliminated Scott on the first ballot, after which Thune defeated Cornyn by 29 votes to 24.

Thune told reporters the legislative filibuster, which requires 60 votes on most bills or procedural motions, will remain unchanged during his tenure.

GRASSLEY TO LEAD JUDICIARY, ERNST’S COMMITTEE ASSIGNMENTS NOT CLEAR

Senate Republicans have not finalized all committee assignments for the next Congress, but Grassley will again chair the Judiciary Committee. He may preside over an explosive confirmation hearing if senators formally consider U.S. Representative Matt Gaetz, whom Trump announced as his pick for attorney general on November 13. Punchbowl’s John Bresnahan posted that Grassley “was so exasperated by Gaetz questions that he stopped talking to reporters & stood there [stonefaced] for 30 seconds.”

Citing unnamed aides, Ted Barrett reported for CNN on November 8 that Ernst “wants to chair the Senate Small Business Committee.” Since early 2023 she has served as that panel’s ranking member.

Reese Gorman reported for NOTUS on November 11 that Ernst was “privately expressing interest in becoming the secretary of defense in Donald Trump’s next administration.” Ernst’s office did not confirm the rumor, and Trump announced on November 12 that Fox News personality Pete Hegseth was his choice to lead the Pentagon.

Speaking to reporters on November 13, Ernst was non-committal about Hegseth’s nomination. Military.com reported,

“I’m going to have to visit with him about those remarks,” Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, the Senate’s first female combat veteran who was rumored to be in the running for Trump’s defense secretary, told reporters Wednesday when asked about Hegseth’s opposition to women in combat.

“Even a staff member of mine, she is an infantry officer. She’s back in Iowa now. She is a tumble. So he’s going to have to explain it,” Ernst added, though she did not answer when Military.com asked whether she would vote against Hegseth over the issue.

HINSON DIDN’T COMPETE FOR HOUSE LEADERSHIP ROLE

House Republicans also elected their leadership team on November 13. Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer won on voice votes. In a competitive vote for the fourth-ranking position, House GOP conference chair, Representative Lisa McClain of Michigan defeated Kat Cammack of Florida.

The current GOP conference chair, Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, will soon leave Congress to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Iowa’s Representative Ashley Hinson, who is close to Stefanik, had been seen as a candidate to succeed her, but she took herself out of the running for a leadership position on November 11. Hinson said in a statement,

I’m humbled that my colleagues would consider me for this important post but I am not running for a leadership position. My focus is on serving Iowa’s Second Congressional District and working to ensure we carry out President Trump’s agenda.

Like many other Iowa political observers, I expect Hinson to run for U.S. Senate soon. If Grassley leaves the Senate for any reason before his term ends in 2028, Hinson could be appointed to replace him, and would have a leg up in the next campaign as an incumbent.

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Top photo of Senator Joni Ernst was first published on her official Facebook page on May 3, 2024.