In good sign for Bohannan, national Democrats investing in IA-01

National Democratic groups are investing significant funds in Iowa’s first Congressional district race, suggesting they believe Christina Bohannan has a solid chance to defeat two-term Republican incumbent Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

The House Majority PAC, a super-PAC connected to House Democratic leadership, has reserved another $2.3 million in television advertising time for the IA-01 race, Ally Mutnick reported for Politico on September 9. Those funds will be divided among the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Quad Cities markets, which collectively reach seventeen of the district’s 20 counties.* Mutnick noted the super-PAC “reserved just $350,000 in that district in July.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which also spends heavily to influence U.S. House races, has already reserved $1,551,000 in tv air time in Des Moines, $534,000 in Cedar Rapids, and $438,000 in Davenport. Much of the DCCC’s Des Moines market buy will be directed toward the third Congressional district, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging first-term Republican incumbent Zach Nunn.

The planned spending is a huge contrast to the 2022 cycle, when Democratic-aligned groups spent less than $100,000 on the IA-01 race, while GOP-aligned groups spent more than $2.7 million on messaging that supported Miller-Meeks or opposed Bohannan. Ad reservations on this scale indicate that internal Democratic polling shows Miller-Meeks is vulnerable.

Another sign this race has tightened: two of the three leading national election forecasters rated IA-01 a “likely Republican” hold a year ago. Now the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all put this race in the more competitive “lean Republican” category. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating last week.

WHY DEMOCRATS ARE INVESTING IN IA-01

Miller-Meeks has trouble on her right flank, as shown by her meager 56 percent vote share against an under-funded challenger in the GOP primary. In addition, Bohannan has out-raised the incumbent each of the last four quarters. As of June 30, the Democratic challenger’s campaign had $2,423,860 cash on hand, compared to $2,271,642 for Miller-Meeks.

Bohannan’s fundraising is even more impressive when you consider that as of June 30, her campaign had received $290,462.51 from political action committees during this election cycle. PACs have donated $1,431.259.56—nearly five times as much—to the Miller-Meeks campaign this cycle.

While the content of the House Majority PAC’s advertising is not yet known, it’s easy to guess the subject matter. Outside groups often spend heavily on negative messages about the opponent. The DCCC has signaled to allied groups that voters in IA-01 “need to see ads” on three broad topics:

Miller-Meeks’ past support for abortion bans and declaration that she is “100% pro-life.”
Miller-Meeks has taken campaign contributions from special interest groups and subsequently “voted their way,” against a law capping insulin co-pays at $35, and for a bill that would have cut Medicare.
Miller-Meeks “voted to defund public education” and “backed giving billions of our tax dollars away to private schools” as a member of the Iowa Senate.

Republican-aligned groups including the Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network have already reserved tv time in IA-01 markets. They will likely provide substantial air support for Miller-Meeks before November 5.

The incumbent caught a lucky break recently when Republican officials on the State Objection Panel voted to exclude three Libertarian Congressional candidates, including Nicholas Gluba in IA-01, from the ballot. A Polk County District Court judge upheld the panel’s decision on September 7. The Libertarians appealed, and the Iowa Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in the case on September 10. I will update this post after the high court rules, which should happen by September 12.

A third-party option on the ballot would probably draw more votes from Miller-Meeks than from Bohannan. Gluba has been campaigning against eminent domain abuse and for gun rights, issues that could appeal to conservative voters.

DISTRICT’S FUNDAMENTALS SLIGHTLY FAVOR REPUBLICANS

According to the latest official figures, the 20 counties in IA-01 contain 176,932 registered Democrats, 183,076 Republicans, 209,092 no-party voters, and 3,981 Libertarians. Republicans have a bigger advantage when it comes to “active” registered voters, most of whom have voted at least once during the past two years. As of September 3, the district had 147,445 active registered Republicans, 126,719 Democrats, 122,478 no-party voters, and 2,253 Libertarians.

The Cook Partisan Voting Index for Iowa’s first Congressional district is R+3, meaning that in the last two presidential elections, voters living in the 20 counties that now make up IA-01 voted about three points more Republican than did the national electorate. The Daily Kos Elections team (now publishing as The Down Ballot) calculated that Donald Trump received about 50.5 percent of the 2020 presidential vote in this area, to 47.6 percent for Joe Biden.

Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan in the last cycle by 162,947 votes to 142,173 (53.4 percent to 46.6 percent). My best guess is that this year’s winner will need to gain about 190,000 votes—possibly less, if the Iowa Supreme Court orders that the Libertarian Gluba be included on the ballot.

All voter groups turn out at higher rates in presidential elections than midterms, and independents have the largest drop-off. So there should be a large number of no-party voters across IA-01 this year who have never seen Bohannan’s name on a ballot. Iowa Democratic turnout (60.1 percent statewide) was significantly lower than GOP turnout (66.8 percent) last cycle, so the challenger will need to activate a lot of unreliable voters to defeat Miller-Meeks.

Bleeding Heartland will publish a more extensive review of the IA-01 campaign and political landscape later this fall.

UPDATE: Miller-Meeks caught a lucky break when the Iowa Supreme Court unanimously upheld the lower court ruling knocking Gluba and other Libertarian candidates off the ballot.

But in good news for Bohannan, the first public poll of Iowa since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate showed Trump just 4 points ahead of Harris: 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The counties that are now part of IA-01 favored Trump by about 3 points when he won statewide by 8. So if the presidential race is as close as Selzer & Co’s latest Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom indicates, Harris could be tied with Trump or even a little ahead in the IA-01 counties.

*The counties in Iowa’s first Congressional district are spread across five media markets.

Jackson, Clinton, Scott, Muscatine, Louisa, Des Moines, and Henry counties are all part of the Quad Cities market.
Johnson, Iowa, Keokuk, Washington, Jones, and Cedar counties receive Cedar Rapids-based television stations.
Warren, Jasper, Marion, and Mahaska counties are in the Des Moines market.
Jefferson and Van Buren counties are part of the Ottumwa/Kirksville, Missouri market.
Lee County (the southeastern tip of Iowa) is in the Quincy, Illinois market.

IA-01 covers the orange area on this map.

Top image of Christina Bohannan in Davenport in late August 2024 was first published on her campaign’s Facebook page.