The president of the Congressional Leadership Fund (the main super-PAC aligned with U.S. House Republicans) congratulated U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks on her “resounding victory” in the June 4 primary to represent Iowa’s first district.

U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra hailed the “clear message” from fourth district voters, saying he was “humbled by the strong support for our campaign.”

They can spin, but they can’t hide.

Pulling 55 to 60 percent of the vote against an underfunded, first-time candidate is anything but a “resounding” or “strong” performance for a member of Congress.

MILLER-MEEKS WINS BY JUST 12 POINTS DESPITE MASSIVE HELP

Unofficial results show 16,446 Iowans across the 20 counties in the first district cast ballots for Miller-Meeks (55.9 percent), while 12,926 voted for the religious conservative challenger David Pautsch (43.9 percent).

A double-digit victory may seem impressive, but Miller-Meeks has run for Congress in southeast Iowa five times before: she won the GOP nomination in 2008, 2010, and 2014 (losing all three times to Dave Loebsack), then was elected in 2020 and 2022.

Establishment heavyweights backing the incumbent this year included Governor Kim Reynolds, Attorney General Brenna Bird, the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Majority Leader Steve Scalise, and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik.

Meanwhile, Pautsch went into this race with little name ID outside the Quad Cities, where he founded the Quad Cities Prayer Breakfast many years ago. His best-known endorsers were former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell, first-term State Representatives Brad Sherman and Luana Stoltenberg, and the group Iowa Gun Owners. Yet he managed to match Miller-Meeks’ vote share in Scott County and carried four other counties (Jones, Clinton, Washington, and Des Moines).

Incumbent raised and spent far more

Like most incumbents, Miller-Meeks enjoyed a big financial advantage. But she didn’t spend much of her war chest before the primary—perhaps mindful that Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan has out-raised her three quarters in a row. In fact, Federal Election Commission reports indicate that as of May 15, Bohannan’s campaign had almost as much cash on hand ($1,828,606.73) as the incumbent’s ($1,865,807.26).

Miller-Meeks’ campaign reported spending some $145,000 from January through March, mostly for operating costs like various forms of consulting. The campaign spent another $180,000 during April and the first half of May, but only about $48,000 of that amount went toward “media placement.”

Pautsch couldn’t compete on that front; his campaign reported spending only about $30,000 from January through mid-May. The itemized expenditures show no radio or television advertising; he reached prospective voters mainly through signs, printed materials, and ads on The Iowa Standard, a conservative website.

Outside spending also boosted Miller-Meeks

In addition to her campaign’s expenditures, Miller-Meeks had a lot of help from her friends. According to OpenSecrets, the super-PACs ClearPath Action and With Honor Fund II have combined to spend $102,406 supporting the IA-01 incumbent during the 2024 cycle.

The American Action Network also spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads praising Miller-Meeks’ work on border security (see here and here). Those weren’t reported as independent expenditures on her behalf, because the ads didn’t expressly urge viewers to vote for Miller-Meeks, and they were on the air more than 60 days before Iowa’s primary election.

Anna Massoglia reported for OpenSecrets in August 2023, “American Action Network is a 501(c)(4) dark money group that does not disclose its donors but shares staff and resources” with the Congressional Leadership Fund super-PAC.

Signs of vulnerability

Under those circumstances, how did Pautsch manage to pull almost 44 percent of the vote?

One factor seems most relevant: he’s a Donald Trump loyalist and 2020 election denier. He disputes that January 6 was an “insurrection.” In contrast, Miller-Meeks didn’t endorse a candidate before the 2024 Iowa caucuses and jumped on the Trump train after his big win here. Pautsch has described his opponent as “wobbly” and faulted her for voting to create a bipartisan January 6 committee, and against Jim Jordan for House speaker.

More broadly, some conservative activists have long distrusted Miller-Meeks on abortion and were furious she voted for a bill recognizing same-sex marriages in 2022.

Trouble on the right flank could create problems for the GOP nominee in November. She defeated Bohannan last cycle by 162,947 votes to 142,173 (53.4 percent to 46.6 percent). But in 2020, Miller-Meeks underperformed Trump in every county except for Johnson, and was certified the winner against Rita Hart by just six votes.

National election forecasters currently rate IA-01 as a “likely Republican” or “lean Republican” seat. The Cook Partisan Voting Index for Iowa’s first Congressional district is R+3, meaning that in the last two presidential elections, voters living in the 20 counties that now make up IA-01 voted about three points more Republican than did the national electorate. The Daily Kos Elections team calculated that Donald Trump received about 50.5 percent of the 2020 presidential vote in this area, to 47.6 percent for Joe Biden.

Trump will probably carry the district again. Miller-Meeks can’t afford to have thousands of his fans leave the ballot line for U.S. House blank.

FEENSTRA SPENT HEAVILY FOR UNIMPRESSIVE RESULT

Unofficial results from the 36 counties in IA-04 show 26,763 votes for Feenstra (60.1 percent) to 17,648 for Kevin Virgil (39.6 percent).

In most contexts, a 20-point election win is a blowout. But for months, Feenstra’s team had touted internal polls that showed the incumbent ahead by 50 points. Instead, Virgil carried nine counties.

Setting high expectations

In an April 11 memo, campaign manager Emily Schwickerath and general consultant Brian Dumas discussed surveys by American Viewpoint, which found Feenstra leading Virgil by 66 percent to 14 percent in March and by 64 percent to 16 percent in early April. “This one over before it even started!” Dumas posted on X/Twitter.

The final pre-primary survey, which American Viewpoint conducted from May 19 to May 21, found Feenstra ahead by 68 percent to 14 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

Those results were believable. Virgil had relatively low name ID, having launched his campaign only five months before the primary. And the incumbent was blanketing the district with his preferred messages.

An enormous financial advantage

Feenstra’s campaign raised more than $818,000 and spent $770,000 during the first three months of the year. In April and the first half of May, the campaign raised another $246,838.70 and spent $936,885.69. (They might want to ask for a refund on the $45,850 they paid American Viewpoint for polling this year, though.)

All told, the incumbent’s campaign spent more than $1.7 million from January through May 15.

During the same period, Virgil’s campaign raised $42,560 during the first quarter and $44,699.06 in April and the first half of May—none from political action committees. The challenger reported spending just $82,865.63, plus about $15,000 in additional costs covered by the candidate.

Some of the incumbent’s numerous television commercials, digital ads, and mailings carried a positive message (Feenstra delivers for constituents). Others characterized the challenger as a carpet-bagger from New York who hasn’t voted in Iowa since 1992 and holds views outside the mainstream.

Feenstra had even more establishment support than Miller-Meeks. In addition to Reynolds, Bird, and the Iowa Farm Bureau, he had the backing of Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, fellow House members Miller-Meeks, Ashley Hinson, and Zach Nunn, every statewide GOP elected official, the top leaders in the Iowa House and Senate, and 23 state legislators who represent parts of the fourth Congressional district.

Virgil’s top endorsers were former U.S. Representative Steve King (whom Feenstra defeated in the 2020 GOP primary), former U.S. Senate candidate Sam Clovis, and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. Also backing the challenger were State Senators Kevin Alons, Rocky De Witt, and Lynn Evans, and State Representatives Zach Dieken and Mark Thompson. The National Association for Gun Rights PAC and Iowa Gun Owners, which considers the National Rifle Association too moderate, were on board as well.

Signs of vulnerability

How did Virgil nearly hit 40 percent of the vote?

His property rights message surely resonated; most of the 36 counties in IA-04 are on the proposed route of Summit Carbon Solutions’ CO2 pipeline. In one of his digital ads, Virgil asserted that the federal government is “completely out of control.” He described Feenstra as “a pawn of the deep state,” voting for budget increases and violations of constitutional rights (“for giving the U.S. government the ability to spy on you without a warrant”).

Like Pautsch, Virgil probably gained support from Trump fans who resented Feenstra’s perceived disloyalty. Feenstra voted to certify the electoral college results in January 2021. He didn’t endorse a candidate before the 2024 caucuses—but reportedly “was tempted” to back Nikki Haley. One of Virgil’s recent Facebook posts included several photos of Feenstra with former Vice President Mike Pence, noting that the incumbent had “embraced every presidential candidate EXCEPT for Donald Trump.”

The fourth district is the reddest in Iowa by far, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16. So Feenstra is not in serious danger of losing to Democratic nominee Ryan Melton, whom he defeated by more than 100,000 votes (67.3 percent to 30.4 percent) in 2022.

Even so, the June 4 result should be a warning sign: Feenstra isn’t beloved in Republican circles. He could be vulnerable to a better-known, well-funded primary challenger. King easily dispatched GOP rivals in 2016 and 2018 before losing the IA-04 nomination in 2020.

Final note: There was one “resounding victory” in an Iowa primary for the U.S. House this year. Lanon Baccam secured the Democratic nomination in the third district with 84.2 percent of the vote, while rival Melissa Vine gained 15.8 percent. Baccam will face first-term Representative Zach Nunn in November. Bleeding Heartland will have more to say about the IA-03 race in the coming weeks.

UPDATE: Virgil plans to buy a home in the fourth district and is seriously considering running for Congress again in 2026, he confirmed to Bleeding Heartland via email on June 6.

Jared Strong reported for Iowa Capital Dispatch,

“Someone very wise once told me: ‘To win in politics, you have to have a message, motivation and lots of money,’” Virgil told the Iowa Capital Dispatch after the primary. “I have the first two — ample amounts of the first two. The only thing I will change (for the next primary) would be a couple extra zeroes in the bank account.”

Strong also quoted a Republican activist in Hancock County (one of the nine that Virgil carried) as saying, “For 3 1/2 years, we have tried aggressively to get Randy Feenstra to come into our county and talk to us.” However, Feenstra “has yet to come to our county” for a meeting that is announced in advance and open to the public.

Stephen Gruber-Miller reported for the Des Moines Register,

In a phone call Wednesday, Pautsch said the election results show “people are hungry for Republican red meat.” He said he doesn’t intend to vote for Miller-Meeks in November and believes Iowa’s all-Republican congressional delegation needs to be replaced because they don’t stand for conservative values.