Tonight Governor Chet Culver and Republican Terry Branstad meet in the first of three scheduled debates. Branstad can afford to play it safe, since he has led every head to head poll of this race. Culver is under more pressure, because he needs to change the dynamic of the race. After watching the Republican gubernatorial debates in the spring, I think Culver can throw Branstad off-balance by pointing out how his campaign rhetoric doesn’t square with what he did in 16 years as governor.

Culver also needs to make a convincing case for his own re-election. His campaign has been sending some mixed messages, with three new television commercials–very different in tone–going up in the past week.

After staying off the air for about six weeks, the Culver campaign launched a 30-second ad called “Give Us the Chance” on September 8:

Chet Culver: As governor of Iowa, I’ve made my share of mistakes. But they were honest mistakes, and I’ve listened to your concerns, and I’ve grown on the job.

Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge: We’ve done our best through tragic floods and a national recession.

Culver: We’ve cut spending to below when we came into office.

Judge: We have a surplus and didn’t raise taxes.

Culver: We’ve become a national leader in renewable energy, expanded preschools and made long-term investments in our state.

Judge: But we can do better.

Culver: And I hope you give us the chance.

The best thing I can say about this ad is (I think) it ran for only a few days. To my mind, it projects weakness: Branstad is all over Iowa tv screens lying about Iowa’s fiscal condition, and the Democratic response is, “We’ve made mistakes, but give us a chance to do better.”

Culver and Judge mention important accomplishments in the commercial, but those get lost in between “made my share of mistakes” and “we can do better.” When Judge told the crowd at the September 12 Harkin Steak Fry that she didn’t apologize for their record, Iowa Republicans immediately crowed about her so-called apology flip-flop.

The time for Culver to indicate that he’s heard Iowans’ concerns and adjusted his leadership style was last year, when his approval rating started to slide. That message doesn’t need to be the center of a campaign commercial two months before the election. Look at Terry “two books” Branstad: when he gets asked about his fiscal mismanagement or tax hikes or other aspects of his record he’d rather forget, he routinely says he has learned from his mistakes. But the Branstad campaign isn’t broadcasting that message on tv.

On September 13, the Culver campaign launched “Our Dad 4 Gov,” featuring Culver’s children:

Transcript provided by the Culver campaign:

Clare:

Our dad’s running for Governor

John:

Hey, this is our ad

Clare:

He’s real good at helping people

John:

Doing stuff to prevent future floods

Clare:

Neat stuff like getting energy from the wind and expanding pre-schools

John

Yeah, but he still makes us do our homework

Clare

He’s pretty cool as a Dad

Chet

Can I say something?

Clare

Noooooooooo!

John

But we like him best when we’re playing around

Clare

Even if we have to share him

Mari

I love him, but he’s still the big lug

Maybe I’m too cynical and jaded, but this commercial doesn’t grab me. I’m not against candidates’ kids appearing in commercials, and this is a cute ad. Besides mentioning a few of Culver’s achievements, it sends the message that the governor makes time to be a good dad to his kids. (It’s true–according to people who know Culver, he does make time for regular family dinners and his kids’ activities.) Still, I don’t see this ad convincing an undecided voter that Culver deserves another term. Then again, I wasn’t a fan of the original “big lug” ad from the 2006 campaign, and that was well-received at the time.

Just one day after releasing the whimsical “Our Dad 4 Gov,” the Culver campaign put out a new commercial, “Dishonest.” It features excerpts from the lead editorial in the Sunday Des Moines Register on September 12:

My transcript:

Male voice: Terry Branstad is being dishonest. Here’s the proof:

Female voice: Independent sources say the “state budget is balanced with money in reserve.” [screen shows Des Moines Register, 9/12/10]

Male voice: Iowa has “top credit ratings”, and the second lowest state debt in the country. [screen shows Des Moines Register, 9/12/10 and Moody’s Investor Services]

Female voice: We’re rated the “top place to raise a family.” [screen shows Forbes, 6/7/10]

Male voice: The “best place for business” [screen shows Forbes, 4/13/10]

Female voice: “Among the first states to recover from the recession.” [screen shows Moody’s Economy.com, Stateline.org, 11/05/09]

Male voice: So Branstad “should be honest” and “tell the whole story.” [again Des Moines Register, 9/12/10]

Female voice: Chet Culver has moved Iowa forward during these challenging times.

Bleeding Heartland has been singing this tune for months. Independent observers who don’t have a stake in this election recognize that Iowa is in strong fiscal shape and weathered the recession relatively well. Branstad is not being honest about Culver’s record.

This ad is nothing special in terms of visuals or production values, but the content is an essential part of the case Culver needs to to make with voters. If Branstad can convince voters that Iowa is drowning in “big bad debt,” Culver can’t make inroads.

To win over people who are considering Branstad, Culver also needs to highlight the differences between his values and Branstad’s values. During a challenging couple of years for the budget, Culver and Democrats in control of the legislature still expanded children’s health care and early education opportunities. What a contrast to Branstad, who wanted to cut foster care and eyeglasses for poor kids when he faced a budget crunch.

The Culver campaign started to make this case last week. This web video bashed Branstad for suggesting on the campaign trail that covering health care for 57,000 more kids is “too much,” “too lucrative,” and “too generous.”

The concept is ok: Branstad should be bashed for his screwed-up priorities. He’d lay down in front of a truck to cut corporate taxes, but programs to help working families are too generous for him. Asked an open-ended question about how he would reduce government spending, Branstad’s first impulse is to cut preschool programs and Medicaid for kids. Make him defend his vision for entitlement reform, whatever that is (as usual, we get few specifics from the Branstad campaign).

The problem is, the Culver campaign’s web video is too long and impersonal. Cut some ads with real families who relied on the HAWK-I program to cover their children’s health care after mom or dad lost their job. Let parents who couldn’t afford preschool talk about what the program has meant to their family. Have a business owner talk about a Power Fund grant. Get a builder to explain that I-JOBS projects helped keep people employed during the recession. Have a mayor or civic leader talk about flood recovery and prevention.

It’s fine for Culver to be at the center of some commercials, and to rely on voice-overs for some others, but I would like to see some “regular people” in his ads too.

Bleeding Heartland readers, please share your own thoughts about the Culver campaign message or the governor’s race in general. Feel free to post some debate predictions as well. The Under the Golden Dome blog thinks Branstad is more likely than Culver to have a “Jan Brewer” moment tonight.