Via the Senate Guru blog I saw that Survey USA released results from its late September poll of 600 adults in Iowa (margin of error 4.1 percent). The survey measured Senator Chuck Grassley’s approval rating at 50 percent. That’s the lowest figure ever for Grassley by this pollster, and you can see from this graph that Grassley’s trendlines are ugly. A full 40 percent of respondents disapprove of Grassley’s performance. His high-profile role in the health care reform debate seems to have hurt his image. Senate Guru notes, “Grassley is also below 50% approval among independents (48%) and self-described moderates (47%).”
The Des Moines Register published a new article Monday on rumors that a well-known and well-funded Democrat will give Grassley “the race of his life.” Speculation seems to be centering on former First Lady Christie Vilsack, who is now executive director of the Iowa Initiative, and prominent attorney Roxanne Conlin, a onetime U.S. Attorney who was the Democratic nominee for governor in 1982.
Other notable findings from Survey USA in September: Senator Tom Harkin is at 44 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval. President Barack Obama’s approve/disapprove numbers in Iowa are now 46/48, but there is a huge gender gap. Among male respondents, 39 percent approve of Obama and 56 disapprove. Among female respondents, 53 percent approve and only 40 percent disapprove.
I was surprised to see that Survey USA didn’t find nearly as much of a gender gap concerning Governor Chet Culver. Culver’s at 41 percent approve/48 percent disapprove overall. Among men and women, 41 percent approve of Culver’s performance. The difference is that 55 percent of men said they disapprove of Culver, versus only 44 percent of women (a full 15 percent of female respondents answered “not sure”). If I were running Culver’s re-election campaign, I would put a high priority on building support among women voters. If a well-known woman makes a serious run at Grassley, that should help boost turnout among women Democrats and leaners.
Incidentally, Swing State Project changed its rating on the Iowa governor’s race from “race to watch” (but safe for the incumbent) to “likely D.” They may revise that rating again if former Governor Terry Branstad enters the campaign.
Survey USA’s Iowa sample in September consisted of 35 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 31 percent independents. The sample for their August Iowa poll was quite different: 28 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans, and 35 percent independents. That alone could explain why Grassley’s approval rating fell from August to September, while Culver’s rose a bit from his all-time Survey USA low in August.
It’s obviously way too early to predict what proportion of Democrats and Republicans will turn out to vote in Iowa next November. The GOP primary for governor could energize that party’s base or cause lasting divisions. The Democratic base may or may not be excited, depending on what Culver and state legislators accomplish next session and whether Grassley’s race becomes competitive. Unemployment seems likely to keep rising.
Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.
13 Comments
Grassleys, Vilsacks, and Culvers
Hoo boy, lots to comment on here!
First, the Grassley numbers are very interesting. It’s remarkable how stable his numbers had been until now–hovering around 60-30 for four years (probably around that for a decade plus, but the graph doesn’t go back that far). He’s really in a tailspin!
Second, I just don’t see Roxanne Conlin and Christie Vilsack in the same league. Vilsack is a game-changer. Conlin is, well, an Art Small.
Third, I don’t really understand the Swing State Project rating. Is “likely Dem” more competitive than “Race to Watch”? In either case, this is the take away from their analysis:
And on your “Women for Culver” strategy: How would you do something like that? Use Patty Judge? I mean, he could try to roll out Mari, but she’s not quite the charmer Christie Vilsack was.
american007 Mon 5 Oct 4:54 PM
SSP ratings
Safe D means absolutely safe, nothing to see here
Race to Watch means could potentially become competitive
Likely D means competitive, but D strongly favored
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
If Branstad gets in, I would assume they’ll change the rating to lean D, although they could shift it to tossup.
desmoinesdem Mon 5 Oct 9:49 PM
women for Culver strategy
I don’t know the best way to go about this, but Culver’s already hired someone who knows where to find Iowa women’s votes: Teresa Vilmain.
Roxanne Conlin is definitely not Art Small. For one thing, she could pour lots of money into the race. There’s no way Grassley would get 70 percent against Conlin.
desmoinesdem Mon 5 Oct 9:50 PM
Very Interesting Numbers
I think a lot of this can be chalked up to a general anti-incumbent attitude that is all the rage these days it seems. People are mad at Democrats for not getting things done, but they still don’t trust the Repubs.
There is no doubt healthcare has hurt Grassley. It exposed him as the right-winger he is and permanently stained his fake bi-partisan patina. Grassley is going to be VERY tough to beat, but if a good healthcare bill passes without Grassley’s help, he could be in serious trouble.
I agree with 007, Vilsack is a much better bet than Conlin. First, people my age don’t know who Conlin is (I was born the year she last ran) and second, she is a trial lawyer (good for fundraising/ bad for image making). Also, I’m pretty sure anyone married to the Ag Secretary could raise some serious money. Plus, how are we going to run against Branstad as a retread and have a lady from 1982 run in the Senate race?
I think Culver is OK against anyone but Branstad. I think it will be very close if Branstad gets in. I agree that women are key in both races and a woman on the ticket would certainly lift all boats. I’d argue that ONLY a woman could beat Grassley. I really hope Vilsack gets in. At least we’d have something to be excited about! It about damn time Iowa elects a woman anyway.
bjazz Mon 5 Oct 6:41 PM
Branstad could get beaten up badly
in the GOP primary. He would probably win, but would the base be willing to work hard for him in November? Not so sure–especially if he picks a pro-choice running mate.
desmoinesdem Mon 5 Oct 9:51 PM
I've been pretty committed to sitting out in 2010,
as far as putting my boots on the ground to volunteer. I’m still burned out from the caucus/general election cycle of 07-08, but if the Iowa Democratic party puts a viable female candidate up against Grassley, I might just have to change my mind. The only other thing that would have gotten my dander up enough to get me out of campaign volunteer retirement would have been if Steve King got in the race against Culver. Then you’d better believe I would have been out there!
As it is, we lived away from Iowa during Vilsack’s terms as governor, so I don’t have a strong impression of Christie Vilsack either way. I’ve heard she’s very warm and charming, but what’s her policy/issues stance cred like?
urbandaleforobama Mon 5 Oct 9:23 PM
you and a lot of other women
I keep hearing people tell me they used to think Grassley wasn’t “that bad,” but this year he has really made them angry.
desmoinesdem Tue 6 Oct 2:53 PM
Conlin's My Guess
To echo a previous commenter, Roxanne Conlin is NOT Art Small.
Roxanne Conlin consistently snags six to seven figure verdicts from Iowa juries, who are known to be relatively conservative. How is she able to do this? She is witty, charming, and down to earth. She knows how to speak to Iowans. She knows how to appeal to Iowans’ value systems.
Additionally, Roxanne is a fundraising machine. Her house in Southern Hills consistently hosts various money raising events for Democratic candidates and causes, and the turnout is usually significant. Notably, she held a $50,000/per plate fund raising dinner at her house this past summer for Nancy Pelosi. By no means small potatoes.
Roxanne is also the “first” in many respects. First female president of the American Trial Lawyers Association. One of the first female U.S. Attorneys. (Google her C.V.; the lists of “firsts” goes on and on).
Finally, Roxanne would be a much smarter and much more appealable candidate than she was in the gubernatorial race 25+ years ago. She’s lost the big hair, and the big glasses. Her recent Microsoft class action verdict that landed millions of dollars for Iowa consumers and Iowa schools has made her relatively visible to the Iowa public.
In sum, I wouldn’t underestimate Roxanne Conlin in a race against Grassley.
zxcvb75 Tue 6 Oct 6:55 AM
Wrong Figure on Pelosi Fundraising Dinner
I meant to say the fundraising dinner was $5,000–not $50,000.
zxcvb75 Tue 6 Oct 7:02 AM
Terry Who?
I don’t get the assumption that Branstad is formidable. How many politicians make comebacks after 12 years? What’s he been doing in the meantime and why don’t I know about it already?
Recalling him to lead a ticket would just paint the Rs as the party of the past.
iowavoter Tue 6 Oct 2:01 PM
that could be a problem for them
They certainly can’t claim to be offering any new ideas or skills.
Then again, three polls have now shown Branstad leading Culver. I don’t think those polls are particularly meaningful more than a year before the election, and when Branstad hasn’t been in a political brawl for 15 years, but many people find them compelling.
Several other former governors are seeking their old jobs next year.
desmoinesdem Tue 6 Oct 2:55 PM