What Changed?

In short, not much. Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Washington (35 EV) move into “likely Obama”, there they should have been since the word go. This takes Obama from a solid 220 EV to an even better 255 solid EV. 

On the “toss up” front, the news is mixed. Ohio (20 EV) moves from “toss-up” to “lean Obama”, while Florida (27 EV) moves in the opposite direction as McCain closes the gap there. The other “toss-ups” remain more or less the same, showing slow but steady movement toward Obama. For the first time, Obama now leads Indiana (11 EV) by .1%, which, while statistically insignificant, is striking nonetheless. Also striking is the fact that Montana (3 EV) again moves into the “toss up” category, although polling remains scarce. 

Georgia (15 EV) remains the only “lean McCain” state, although the race there continues to tighten. West Virginia (5 EV) continues to be erratic, moving back now into “likely McCain”.

Where they stand:

Obama: Obama continues to improve his standing in the electoral college. However, it appears that the race is tightening somewhat as races usually do close to election day. Bringing Florida back into the fold would do a lot to create the “landslide mandate” many Dems are seeking. 

McCain: There is a ray of hope for McCain, although it is dim and distant. If McCain can get a foothold in Florida and Georgia, and retake Indiana and Missouri, it would go a long way toward creating the impression of a competetive race. Creating that impression could cause some of the fence sitting states to domino into the McCain camp.

Although it's the longest of longshots, 4th and long at the two minute warning, don't count McCain out yet.

 

According to 270towin.com, their simulation engine shows Obama winning 100%  of the last 1000 simulations, with an average electoral vote of 343 to McCain's 195.

If the election were held today, and  every state voted according to the latest poll average, Obama would win in a BIG landslide–378-160 electoral votes.

If Obama wins North Carolina, Florida, and Indiana, Obama could reach 270 EV by the time the polls close in the Central Time Zone, with Missouri putting him over the top.

Pollster.com

Obama: 306; McCain: 157; Toss Up: 75

Likely Obama: 255 EV 

Lean Obama: 51 EV (CO, NM, OH, VA, NH)

Toss Up: 70 EV (NV, ND, MT, IN, MO, FL, NC)

Lean McCain: 15 EV (GA)

Likely McCain: 142 EV