Expanded from a short take for CNN

The seventh Republican presidential debate and the first without Donald Trump produced more substantive talk about issues and some strong performances by candidates near the bottom of the pack. For political junkies who missed the debate for whatever reason, the New York Times posted the full transcript here. My thoughts are after the jump.

Candidates shadow box with Hillary Clinton

Someone absent from the debate stage was targeted early and often by candidates seeking to impress Iowa caucus-goers. But it wasn’t Trump.

Marco Rubio and Chris Christie avoided challenging the man who’s way ahead of them in early state and national polls, while treating multiple questions as invitations to attack Hillary Clinton.

From his first answer to his closing remarks and several times in between, Rubio promised to beat the Democratic frontrunner (“Hillary doesn’t want to run against me, but I can’t wait to run against her”). He reminded viewers that Clinton floated President Barack Obama as a possible Supreme Court appointee.

Echoing lines he tested in earlier debates, Rubio asserted that use of a private email server and actions related to the Benghazi attack had “disqualified” Clinton from being president.

Former U.S. Attorney Christie repeatedly pressed his electability argument, saying he can best “prosecute the case against Hillary Clinton” and keep her from getting “within 10 miles of the White House.” A question about fighting ISIS in Libya took a detour toward more criticism of the former Secretary of State, who “has so much to answer for” but has “refused to be held accountable.”

Sounding more confident than in any previous debate, Jeb Bush twice assured Republicans he can beat Clinton with the “proven record of accomplishment” she lacks. It was by far Bush’s best performance on national television, even if it may have come too late to stop “establishment” Republicans in Iowa from gravitating toward Rubio.

Rand Paul helped himself

Paul stayed out of the Hillary-bashing game and didn’t mention her except when asked about Bill Clinton’s conduct. He capitalized on being back in the primetime scrum by hitting key points that set him apart from the competition: audit the Fed, criminal justice reform, limits on NSA surveillance (“bulk collection of phone data did not stop one terrorist attack”) and being willing to “look at all spending” to balance the budget.

Paul won’t grab one of the famous “three tickets” out of Iowa, but he surely energized his fans and may outperform his recent polling numbers on Monday night. His impact was all the more remarkable, considering that he spoke fewer words than anyone else on stage, aside from Carson. Paul is famous for filibustering on the Senate floor, but last night his message was clear and concise.

A rough ride for Ted Cruz

Without Trump, Cruz became a focal point for the panelists. At one point he complained that four questions in a row seemed designed to elicit attacks on him. His smug confidence was noticeably shaken by some of the exchanges, especially after Fox News played clips of his support for an amendment that would have created a path to legal residency for some undocumented immigrants. Cruz repeatedly name-dropped Iowa’s Representative Steve King and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions for cover on that issue. He also used King’s support to shield him from accusations that he is “against” ethanol, saying he’s for an “all of the above” energy policy and would only phase out the Renewable Fuel Standard (ethanol mandate) as part of a plan to eliminate subsidies for oil, natural gas, coal, and so on.

Asked about Governor Terry Branstad’s recent comments encouraging Iowans to defeat him, Cruz declined to attack the governor but defended his stand on ethanol, the focus of numerous negative advertisements and direct mailings. Four volunteers who have been phone-banking for Cruz told Trip Gabriel of the New York Times that the most frequent question they’re asked is about the ethanol mandate.

Cruz tried to wave off a question about why few members of Congress have endorsed him (“I’m not the candidate of career politicians in Washington”) and sought to portray Rubio as “very charming” and “very smooth” but willing to sell out conservative principles to pander to “major donors.” For his part, Rubio cited “the lie that Ted’s campaign is built on,” that Cruz is supposedly the only real conservative in the field. The New York Times reported today that the Cruz campaign has shifted its advertising strategy in Iowa, targeting Rubio rather than Trump as internal polling shows the Florida senator creeping up.

The Des Moines encounter provided a stark contrast to the previous GOP debate in Charleston, South Carolina. Cruz walked onto that stage prepared for battle and left with hardly a scratch. All the Republican candidates vowed to rebuild the military, but Cruz built a narrative arc, from an opening statement evoking 10 American sailors on their knees to a closing promise to service members, police officers, firefighters and first responders: “I will have your back.” He easily dealt with Trump questioning his status as a natural-born citizen and didn’t break a sweat while handling well-rehearsed talking points from Rubio about Cruz’s military budget votes, tax proposals and record on immigration policy.

The Fox News panelists didn’t ask Cruz last night about his failure to disclose a large loan from Goldman Sachs during his 2012 Senate campaign. That topic briefly surfaced during the South Carolina debate but disappeared after Cruz played the victim of a New York Times “hit piece” on what he called a “paperwork error.”

Other notes

Earlier this week, I thought skipping the debate made Trump look weak and insecure. How can he stand up to world leaders if he’s afraid to face Megyn Kelly? Now I suspect Trump probably sustained less damage by running away than if he had stood up to take shots from the moderators. “Greatest hits” videos compiled by Fox staff cast an unflattering light on Cruz and Rubio, and a Trump highlight reel of praise for Hillary Clinton or strong pro-choice statements could have hurt him with the Republican base.

Ben Carson said little of note, other than to reflect that he’d received more 2 am phone calls on life-or-death matters than everyone else on stage combined. He will be lucky to finish fourth on Monday night.

John Kasich’s message of optimism and working together may help him in New Hampshire, where he is a contender for a top-three finish, but he won’t be a factor in Iowa.

If you watched the debate, please share your perspective in this thread.

UPDATE: Most of the Iowa Republicans in a focus group Frank Luntz convened thought Rubio won the debate. That page also includes a one-minute video of Carson’s “most bizarre and cringeworthy answers.”