The answer depends on what state you’re looking at.
Recent polling suggests that Barack Obama has been running much better than Hillary Clinton against John McCain in states such as Iowa and Colorado.
However, that appears not to be the case in some other important swing states. Survey USA released three new state polls:
http://www.talkleft.com/story/…
In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain 50-44, but McCain beats Obama 50-43.
In Missouri, McCain leads Clinton 48-46 (within margin of error), and McCain leads Obama 53-39.
In Kentucky, McCain leads Clinton 53-43 and leads Obama 64-28. Obviously, Democrats are not going to carry Kentucky in the presidential race, but there may be some close Congressional races in that state. Who is going to be better for our down-ticket candidates?
For the record, I think both Clinton and Obama could beat McCain or lose to McCain. I have no idea who has a better chance of getting 270 electoral votes. I do think Obama runs a greater risk of losing in a Dukakis-style blowout than Clinton does.
Right now I’m pessimistic about either of them being able to win the general, in part because of the way our primary is now all about identity politics rather than issues.
5 Comments
Honestly we need a good week to know
Well, at least a week for the speech to set in and see how that effects the polls. Obama undeniably took a serious hit in the polls from the Wright incident, but that may swing back after the speech.
I certainly agree that Obama has the greater risk of losing big against McCain as Obama is running a 50 state strategy. On the other hand, Obama also has a real chance of being the first Democrat in decades to actually take a considerable amount of the states in winning the general elections. Clinton will have a stronger lead in the Dem stronghold states and she will be crossing her fingers for that last state or two that we seem to always be doing these recent elections.
iowa-dem Thu 20 Mar 4:30 AM
It is really hard to tell but...
We CAN win Iowa. And that is what our focus should be on. We have competitive races everywhere and hopefully all this enthusiasm last until November!
Vote Fallon!
http://www.equalitygiving.org/
secondtonone Thu 20 Mar 11:20 AM
Identity politics is right
Frankly, we are reaping what we have sowed for a very long time. Playing identity politics is a perfect example of R/conservative criticism of D’s that rings very true. Identity politics is fine with us when it benefits us. It sucks when it comes back to bite us. And it is ironic that Obama – a rare politician who seems to grasp, understand and speak honestly about racial identity politics – may be falling victim to racial identity politics. Had we had honest and open discussions about race, black anger, and white anger, this whole Wright thing would have been a non-issue.
I surely sound like an R, but we really need to declare victory in the racial and gender equality battles. We won. Let’s acknowledge that fact. Now we need to move on to judging people on the content of their character. We must acknowledge there is only so much real-world equality laws and policies can achieve. The final equalizer, especially in the minds of Reagan Democrats and alike, will be the great Latino neighbor you have, the great female boss you have, Oprah, Colin Powell or Senate Majority Leader Clinton. At some point of time the whining and crying starts to backfire on our noble goals. Plus, we have the laws and a court system in place to handle incidents and issues that are real and undoubtedly still happening.
rf Thu 20 Mar 12:53 PM
our laws could still be improved
and our courts do not always enforce the laws we have. Remember that Supreme Court ruling last year, where they said the woman did not have a discrimination case because she needed to have filed her lawsuit within 180 days of the initial discriminatory act by her employer?
Never mind that she did not find out until many years later that her employer was systematically giving her smaller raises than her male colleagues received.
We’ve got a long way to go on this one.
But I agree with you that it’s not helpful for Democrats to be talking about identity politics at the expense of other issues.
McCain knows nothing about the economy and doesn’t even understand basic facts about our enemies in the Middle East. But we are whining about whose surrogate said something more racially insensitive.
desmoinesdem Thu 20 Mar 1:29 PM
There's good reason to be pessimistic
right now. The longer this race goes on the worse off the Democrats will be no matter who is nominated. I enjoyed the campaigns much more when the focus was on Iowa and genuineness on policy and purpose. Now it’s just a matter of picking away at each candidate, tearing down each other’s image, destroying hope for the party, until one or the other finally recognizes the inevitability of the other. It’s about who can make the grossest black and white (no shades of gray) argument against the other or which surrogate ‘really’ represents the candidate’s views. This nomination needs to end and more of the Superdelegates should start coming out with who they support now rather than wait until the convention. Meanwhile, McCain is on the other side building political capital and in some polls seeming to increase leads against both Democrats. Hillary is really doing a disservice to the Democratic party by staying in the race. She should know that she cannot win without a catastrophe occuring and that because Obama draws a lot of Independents, the more she turns them away by scurrying around the issues by playing identity politics the worse off the Party will be after the nomination. Obviously, she does not give a rat’s tail about the Party. She only cares about her own political legacy, which is closer and closer to being what it always has been: an afterthought to her husband’s legacy.
drinksgreentea Thu 20 Mar 3:42 PM