It will take months to fully assess the fallout from Governor Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek another term in 2026.

But one thing’s for sure: State Auditor Rob Sand’s chances of winning the next governor’s race are substantially higher now than they were before April 11.

KIM REYNOLDS WOULD HAVE BEEN HARD TO BEAT

The day before Reynolds announced her plans to focus on her family in the coming years, Morning Consult published its latest round of approval ratings for all 50 U.S. governors. Among registered Iowa voters contacted from January through March 2025, 44 percent said they approved of Reynolds’ work as governor, while 49 percent disapproved. Ben Kamisar observed for NBC News, “That is the highest disapproval rating of any governor polled, for the fifth quarter in a row in Morning Consult’s polling, and she’s the only governor with a higher disapproval rating than approval rating in the poll.”

Why is Reynolds the least-liked governor in the country? There could be many reasons. Her leadership style has been divisive for years. Her signature accomplishments, including a near-total abortion ban and a costly school voucher program, are unpopular among independents. Iowa now has one of the worst-performing state economies in terms of GDP and personal income growth. We’re on track to run deficit budgets for the next several years, using accumulated surplus funds to cover ongoing expenses.

Reynolds has also angered some Republicans. Not only did she decline to endorse Donald Trump before the 2024 Iowa caucuses, she energetically campaigned for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. While many conservatives have fought for years to stop Summit Carbon Solutions from using eminent domain to build a CO2 pipeline, Reynolds’ appointees to the Iowa Utilities Commission approved the project. It is widely believed that Iowa Senate Republicans continually block eminent domain bills because the governor doesn’t want one to land on her desk.

So Reynolds faced headwinds and a GOP primary opponent (former State Representative Brad Sherman) poised to highlight some of her vulnerabilities.

But don’t be fooled into thinking Reynolds was on track to lose the next election. With very few exceptions, it is much harder to defeat an incumbent than to win a race for an open seat, at any level of government. Only three Iowa governors have lost re-election bids since the 1930s.

Poll respondents do not necessarily reflect the people who will vote in November 2026; Iowa Republicans now have a large voter registration advantage as well as a higher turnout rate in every midterm election for decades. And voters who tell a pollster they don’t approve of a politician from their own party are not automatically open to voting for the other party’s candidate. The overwhelming majority of partisan voters “come home” for the general election.

I don’t know why Reynolds changed her mind since she told reporters in February, “I’m going to run on what we’ve done for Iowans since I’ve been elected, and I’m proud of that record.” I doubt she was scared away by poll numbers.

SAND WELL-POSITIONED FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

Sand hasn’t disclosed his 2026 plans. His only public statement about the Reynolds news was in a social media post: “Public office is a demanding path in a way that few truly understand. I wish Gov. Reynolds and her family well in retirement.”

That said, you don’t raise more than $8 million two years before the election in order to seek a third term as state auditor.

Sand’s prepared remarks at town hall meetings around the state, most recently with a conservative group in O’Brien County on April 11, highlight the Reynolds administration’s abuses of power, shortcomings on transparency, and irresponsible budgeting practices. He has written op-eds about some of those issues. His speeches to Democratic gatherings have incorporated sharper criticism of the Reynolds agenda for years.

Last fall, Sand said he didn’t expect it to take as long as it did in 2021 to decide which office he’s running for in the coming election cycle. I will be surprised if he doesn’t launch a campaign for governor during the next two months.

He may not be unopposed for the Democratic nomination—in fact, I expect at least one candidate to run for governor on a platform further to the left. But with high name ID as a statewide elected official and millions of dollars in the bank already, Sand will be the heavy favorite to win the June 2026 primary.

THE NEXT GOP NOMINEE COULD HAVE BAGGAGE

Reynolds’ departure opens the door for many Republicans to consider seeking the state’s highest office.

Although I’ve heard speculation about state legislators or members of Congress (especially third district Representative Zach Nunn) running for governor, I doubt any of them would get President Donald Trump’s support in a primary. Nor could they win the nomination against a Trump-endorsed candidate.

Sherman is still actively campaigning. He said in an April 11 statement that he is “fully prepared to lead our party into the next chapter” while accumulating “a growing slate of legislative endorsements and a surge of grassroots momentum from every corner of the state.”

I expect the nominee to be a higher-profile MAGA Republican with closer ties to Trump. The two obvious contenders are Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird, who is clearly considering the race, and former acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker, who was recently confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to NATO.

I would guess that once Trump makes his preference clear, either Bird or Whitaker will enter the race and will become the immediate front-runner for the GOP nomination. Both candidates have baggage, and not only because of their close association with the president who by this time next year may have driven the country into recession.

Bleeding Heartland will explore these angles in more detail in the future, but just to give a taste:

Immediately after taking office, Bird halted reimbursements for emergency contraception for sexual assault victims. She didn’t resume them for more than a year.

Since the 2023 state government reorganization gave Bird more direct control over the Office of Consumer Advocate, that office has done little to advocate for consumers. The office did nothing to address concerns of Iowans facing eminent domain for the Summit Carbon pipeline.

In 2024, Bird quietly signed Iowa onto a multi-state lawsuit that could undermine protections against discrimination for people with disabilities.

Last month, Bird filed a lawsuit seeking to cut off all state funds to Winneshiek County—because she didn’t like a Facebook post by the Republican county sheriff.

As for Whitaker: he served (unconstitutionally) for a few months as acting U.S. attorney general following the 2018 election. The New York Times reported in 2020 that in that role, Whitaker blocked a probe of “a state-owned Turkish bank suspected of violating U.S. sanctions law by funneling billions of dollars of gold and cash to Iran.”

Political ad-makers could have a field day with Whitaker’s connection to World Patent Marketing in the 2010s. The company promoted products such as a special toilet for “well-endowed men” and a “theoretical time travel commodity tied directly to price of Bitcoin.” (Worth watching: late-night comedian Stephen Colbert’s segment on Whitaker from November 2018.)

Whitaker made some questionable decisions as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Iowa during the George W. Bush administration. His extortion case against then Democratic State Senator Matt McCoy was so weak that a jury acquitted in less than an hour.

To be clear, any statewide election in Iowa is an uphill battle for Democrats now, given the state’s shift to the right over the past decade. But Sand would have an easier path against any non-incumbent Republican than against Reynolds.