Fifteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.
Nick Conway is a Geographic Information Systems Technician who lives in Seattle, Washington. He is a graduate of Grinnell College. Follow him on X/Twitter @Mill226 or on Bluesky @conwayni2.bsky.social.
Iowa has experienced one of the nation’s most dramatic political transformations since President Barack Obama carried the state for a second time in 2012. While Obama won 52.0 percent of Iowa’s presidential vote to Mitt Romney’s 46.2 percent (a roughly 6-point margin), by 2024 the state had become solidly Republican, with Donald Trump securing 55.7 percent to 42.5 percent for Kamala Harris (a 13-point margin).
Iowa’s 19 percentage point swing in presidential voting from 2012 to 2024 was the second-largest shift toward Republicans among all 50 states, surpassed only by Obama’s childhood home of Hawaii.
The transformation was particularly striking at the county level. Nearly a quarter of the 100 counties in the U.S. that showed the largest GOP gains from 2012 to 2024 are in Iowa.
These 24 Iowa counties each experienced swings of at least 39 percentage points toward the Republican presidential nominee. Howard County in the northeast had the state’s biggest shift: after favoring Obama by 21 points in 2012, Howard County voters preferred Trump by 32 points in 2024—a massive 53-point swing that ranked as the tenth-largest nationwide.
Table created by Nick Conway
The county-by-county swing from 2012 to 2024 is mapped below, and shows that Republicans gained ground in 97 of Iowa’s 99 counties. The most substantial shifts right, indicated in dark red on the map, occurred primarily in rural counties throughout eastern and southern Iowa. Urban counties generally showed more modest Republican gains.
Only two counties bucked this trend by voting more Democratic in 2024 than in 2012: Dallas County (Des Moines’ western suburbs) and Johnson County (home to Iowa City). Both have much higher shares of residents with a college degree than Iowa does as a whole.
All maps created by Nick Conway
If we rewind back to the 2012 election (mapped below) we can better understand this shift. Obama performed strongly throughout central and eastern Iowa, including in many rural areas.
These same rural counties Obama carried twice later showed some of the largest swings toward Trump, as Democrats had more room to fall in these regions.
In contrast, northwest Iowa, which was already reliably Republican in 2012, showed smaller rightward shifts during the Trump era.
Harris lost every rural county in Iowa last year, though she maintained a slightly better performance in rural eastern Iowa compared to the western part of the state. The Democratic nominee won only five counties, all centered around major cities: Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Johnson (Iowa City), Black Hawk (Waterloo), and Story (Ames).
Even some counties with significant urban populations, such as Scott (Davenport) and Woodbury (Sioux City), supported Trump in 2024, albeit by smaller margins than rural areas.
Given the rout they’ve faced in rural areas, future Democratic victories in Iowa will likely require a different coalition than Obama’s 2012 win. Rob Sand’s successful 2022 campaign for state auditor, the lone statewide Democratic victory that year, provides a potential template that is mapped below.
While Sand won a few rural counties in eastern Iowa, his path to victory mainly relied on strong performances in urban areas. He flipped back Dubuque County, which had been a Democratic stronghold in the pre-Trump era, and also gained votes out of suburban Dallas County west of Des Moines. That coalition enabled him to eke out a narrow victory, winning by 50.1 percent to 49.8 percent.
Iowa’s shift toward the GOP will be hard to undo, but backlash to Trump’s second term and voter fatigue with long-term Republican control of state government could open the door for Democratic gains.
One recent encouraging development was Mike Zimmer’s victory in the January special election for Iowa Senate district 35, a district Trump won by 21 points in November. Although she did not win, Nannette Griffin greatly outperformed the Democratic baseline in this week’s special election in House district 100.
The 2026 midterm elections in Iowa will be a big test of whether these special election were a fluke, or Democrats can claw back some of the ground they’ve lost since 2012 in the Hawkeye state.
6 Comments
Excellent maps and information !
I will say you spend some time with your maps and data collecting but in this entire portfolio, you forgot the reasons why those counties are switching not just in Iowa but across many states it’s the Democratic parties messaging and belief system that has drastically changed from the time Barack Obama was president to today Obama was called the deported and chief he deported many many illegals from the country. There wasn’t this rampant push of transgender forced upon everyone there wasn’t this extreme environmentalist take as the Democratic Party had switched to and certainly does nothing for rule America or farmers Democrats better come back to the center or they’re going to lose again and again and again in the Midwest the southeast And they’re only real stronghold’s will only stay California New York both coast.
The last eight year cycle, Donald Trump has got in the head of too many people and when all you run on is hate for the opposition with very little policy substance and then policy substance happens to be not in the majority, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Midwestconservative Thu 13 Mar 7:01 AM
Don't forget about the money
Another thing that has changed in the past dozen years is the spending by national and state GOP and corporate funders, Americans for Prosperity/ Donor Trust/ Koch Brothers, Family Leader/ Faith & Freedom Coalition and individual billionaires. Iowa along with states with large rural populations have been flooded with campaign/ advocacy money. Collectively GOP has been shameless in their fundraising and profligate in their spending on messaging. The Governors Assns, Attorneys General Assns, and the like all raise massive amounts from corporate funders and pass it through to targeted races. The money flow is as much a cause of the shift as messaging.
Miketram01 Thu 13 Mar 9:22 AM
appreciate the data and insight
A lot has changed since 2012 as President Obama was a charismatic and dynamic speaker – a huge contrast from the “word salad queen” as Kamala hid from the press and unscripted questions were taboo. In 2012 we were the party of the blue collar, DNC has slithered away from middle class to a world of identity politics and “which group is a bigger victim”. Hopefully the party will learn the harsh lessons of 2024 and move back toward the mainstream.
ModerateDem Thu 13 Mar 10:34 AM
Follow the Money
Thanks, Miketram01, for reminding us that elections can be won on issues or won with a flood of cash and bullshit. And you did not even mention Citizens United in which the Supreme Court turned all that cash loose in their own private reaction to Obama. It was not quite in time to prevent his re-election, but it surely affects every election now.
IowaVoter Thu 13 Mar 1:06 PM
Thank you, Miketram01 and IowaVoter.
I appreciate comments that are based on reality and make sense.
And thank you, Nick Conway. Your post presents very impressive work.
PrairieFan Thu 13 Mar 3:28 PM
Money being an issue ?
I love how democrats love to talk election campaign spending when they almost always out spend their counter parts in elections ? Be it president , governors races or state and local races ?
I find it ironic when the democrats lose they want to blame partially Republican spending on the elections ? Look at the facts please.
Republicans have been winning the last 4 years because of kitchen table issues and the dems to date offer racism, trans issues , illegals rights and sanctuary cities .
The polling shows the majority of people aren’t about these things.
Midwestconservative Fri 14 Mar 2:04 PM