Governor Kim Reynolds struck a confident tone when asked this week about a possible 2026 primary against former State Representative Brad Sherman.

In a February 17 news release announcing his campaign for governor, Sherman said, “I look forward to working with President Trump – who I endorsed early and supported in rallies, caucuses, conventions, and elections – in his agenda to restore the America we love.”

It was a not-subtle swipe at Reynolds, who endorsed and campaigned for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis before the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

Although the governor has not confirmed she will seek a third term, she was ready with talking points that would cater to Republican audiences.

“I’LL STAND ON MY BOLD CONSERVATIVE RECORD”

Gray TV Iowa political director Dave Price asked Reynolds on February 18 if she felt confident the president would endorse her in a Republican primary. Here’s my recording of that exchange from the governor’s press conference.

Reynolds was careful not to predict Trump would support her re-election bid. But she said, “I feel like—the relationship is, it’s good with President Trump.” She alluded to a recent meeting with other Republican governors at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort, “where we talked a lot about his goal for reducing the size of the federal government, for really sending a lot of the programs back to the states.”

She added that Trump “almost always points out Iowa” when he talks about education reforms. “We are leading, and he often touts Iowa as an example” in the context of redirecting federal funds to states as block grants.

During her latest visit to Washington, Reynolds said, she attended the confirmation hearing for Linda McMahon, Trump’s nominee to lead the U.S. Department of Education. She and McMahon have talked about how Iowa could “help facilitate some of the things that they’re trying to do in a responsible manner.” Reynolds referenced a conversation with U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and a planned meeting with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the former governor of North Dakota.

“So we have not only a relationship with President Trump, who needs strong governors in the states to implement what he’s trying to do. And I’ll stand on my bold conservative record of getting things done.”

“I’M RUNNING ON MY RECORD”

Reynolds then ticked off some likely themes of her next re-election campaign, saying she had cut taxes and red tape, reduced the size of state government, and “protected” girls’ sports, education, life, farmland, and children, while backing law enforcement and keeping communities safe.

“The list goes on and on,” she said. “So I feel good about my record, most of which probably he [Brad Sherman] voted for.”

Price pointed out that it would matter whether Trump backed Reynolds in a competitive primary. Does she think she would have the president’s endorsement?

“I don’t know, we’ll have to see,” Reynolds said. “But I’m going to run on my record. I mean, I would love it [the endorsement]. But I’m running on my record. I’m going to run on what we’ve done for Iowans since I’ve been elected, and I’m proud of that record. We’ve gotten a lot done in a short timeline, and I’m proud of what we’ve been able to do.”

Since Reynolds hasn’t formally announced her campaign plans, KCCI-TV’s Amanda Rooker asked the obvious follow-up question: “Are you running for re-election, then?”

“Stay tuned, there might be some news coming,” Reynolds said. “Just not today. So stay tuned.”

WILL TRUMP LET BYGONES BE BYGONES?

Trump was furious during the summer of 2023 when Reynolds said she would remain “neutral” in the GOP presidential race. He felt she owed him, since “without me she would not be governor.” Trump did clear a path for Reynolds by appointing her predecessor Terry Branstad as U.S. ambassador to China. That allowed her to assume the powers of the governor’s office in 2017 and campaign for a full term the following year as the incumbent.

Trump also headlined a rally in Council Bluffs about a month before the 2018 election. But I don’t think Reynolds defeated Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell because of the president’s backing. Arguably antipathy to Trump was the main reason the Iowa governor’s race was so close in 2018. Iowa Democratic turnout surged compared to the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections and was even higher than it had been in 2002 and 2006, the last two times Democrats were elected governor here.

As it became clear that Reynolds was going to endorse DeSantis before the Iowa caucuses, Trump became enraged. He warned in a Truth Social post from November 2023 that if Iowa’s governor backed “Ron DeSanctimonious,” it would mean “the end of her political career in that MAGA would never support her again.”

Reynolds has worked hard to get back into the president’s good graces. She owns not one but two Trump-themed sequin jackets. She’s made several visits to Mar-a-Lago, including for Trump’s election night party.

It’s been a while since the insulter-in-chief publicly railed against Reynolds’ disloyalty. And I doubt he would endorse Sherman for governor unless he believed the challenger had a good chance to win the Republican nomination. But I could easily see Trump throwing a “neutral” stance back in the governor’s face before the June 2026 primary.

SHERMAN HAS SEVERAL ANGLES TO RUN AGAINST REYNOLDS

Sherman served one term in the Iowa House and did not seek re-election in 2024. As Reynolds correctly observed this week, he supported many of her signature proposals, such as school vouchers, a near-total abortion ban, and bills discriminating against LGBTQ people. However, Sherman didn’t always fall in line; he voted against Reynolds’ effort to limit damages in medical malpractice lawsuits. He also opposed last year’s bill to eliminate or consolidate scores of state boards and commissions.

Bleeding Heartland previously speculated about constituencies that could be important sources of support for Sherman in a GOP primary: MAGA loyalists, opponents of the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline, anti-abortion absolutists, and those who saw pandemic mitigation efforts as tyranny.

The challenger’s February 17 announcement included language that would appeal to those groups.

Sherman’s campaign will focus on a platform of defending Iowans’ rights against eminent domain abuse, encouraging fiscal responsibility, promoting family values, and returning government to the foundational principles that made America great.

“The foundational values upon which our liberties rest have been dangerously undermined and now we’re at a crossroads.” said Sherman. “As Governor, I will work hard to restore the foundations of freedom and stand for the constitutional rights of every individual, ensuring that Iowa remains a welcoming place for faith, families, and thriving businesses.”

“From Keokuk to Canton, from New Albin to Hamburg, from Davenport to Des Moines, from Sioux City to Iowa City, I am running to be a Governor for those who live everywhere across our great state. This is not merely a campaign; this is a movement to revitalize the heart and soul of our state. I look forward to working with President Trump – who I endorsed early and supported in rallies, caucuses, conventions, and elections – in his agenda to restore the America we love.”

“Eminent domain abuse” is code for the CO2 pipeline. Reynolds has received large campaign contributions from some pipeline backers and appointed the Iowa Utilities Commission members who approved Summit Carbon Solutions’ permit. Many observers (myself included) believe Iowa Senate GOP leaders have kept all eminent domain legislation bottled up in committee because the governor doesn’t want any of those bills landing on her desk.

It’s not clear how many of Trump’s fans in Iowa share his penchant for holding grudges. But Sherman could find a lot of support in the MAGA faction.

Reynolds has delivered on a lot of social conservative priorities and is not shy about promoting her Christian faith. So I’m not sure how much traction Sherman can get with a “family values” message. On the other hand, there are activists who view the GOP establishment as weak and too willing to compromise. Sherman has been a pastor for more than 40 years. He was among the Republican National Convention delegates who dissented from the party’s 2024 platform because the abortion language didn’t go far enough.

Beating an entrenched incumbent is never easy, and Reynolds will be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination again. Even so, the 2026 primary will be a fascinating test. If Sherman does better than expected with Republican voters, then perhaps “running on my record” won’t be the selling point Reynolds is counting on for the general election.