“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

BIG MAGA ENERGY

Although the ad uploaded to Smith’s YouTube page on December 31 doesn’t mention President-elect Donald Trump by name, it’s full of Trump-like bluster and insults. The title sets the tone: “Hi Joni, you suck. Rino removal 2026.”

The spot opens with a glimpse of the slogan “JONI ERNST SUCKS.”

Then Smith looks at the camera as he delivers the opening line: “Hi Joni. I’m Joshua Smith. You may not know who I am. But boy, as an Iowan, do I know you. And in 2026, I’m coming for your job.”

Declaring himself to be “the loudest and most pissed-off one of all of us,” Smith also adopts Trump’s habit of claiming to speak for everyone.

After showing a clip from Ernst’s infamous “Squeal” ad from 2014 (altered to make her voice sound higher and strained), Smith says, “You said you were gonna make D.C. squeal like a pig. Instead, you went and rolled around in the slop for nine years. And everyone knows it. Joni, I’m sorry that I have to be the one to say what we’re all feeling.”

Trump has normalized profanity in American political discourse, and Smith speaks in a similar in-your-face way. At one point, he says, “Now, if you’d like to get you sh*t together and stop wasting the money of hard-working Iowans, great.” The word “PRIORITIES” appears in a box over his mouth as the bleep covers the obscenity.

In the ad’s final ten seconds, Smith warns, “Get better, Joni. Or get f*cked.” The last word is bleeped as a box over his mouth reads “FIRED,” but anyone watching or listening can tell what he really said.

“YOU COULDN’T BALANCE A CHECKBOOK TO SAVE YOUR OWN LIVES”

Republican primary challengers are often deficit hawks, and Smith borrows some of that language. But instead of blaming government programs that help the needy in our own country—a frequent target for the American right—Smith highlights U.S. government spending abroad.

Early in the ad, he says, “People are sick to death of talking about politics. But really, Joni, they’re just sick of you. You, and every Republican just like you, who pretends to be fiscally conservative while sending all of Iowa’s money to foreign countries and your D.C. cronies.”

As Smith reads that line, the viewer sees images including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an Israeli flag, and a Des Moines Register headline from February 2024: “Grassley, Ernst vote yes on $95B spending bill with Ukraine aid.”

That bill also included aid to Israel and U.S. allies in Asia. $95 billion is a big number, but it’s less than 1.5 percent of the $6.8 trillion the federal government spent during the 2024 fiscal year. It’s a tiny fraction of the $7.8 trillion added to the national debt during Trump’s first term. Research has shown tax cuts Republicans enacted under Presidents George W. Bush and Trump contributed most to the country’s increasing debt ratio.

In any event, Smith runs with his frame. Images of bills supporting military aid to Taiwan and Israel flash by as the challenger says, “I’ve seen the bills that you sign off on, Joni. You’re not putting Iowa first. You’re not even putting America first. And we’re tired of it.”

Later, he says “it seems like you couldn’t balance a checkbook to save your own lives, much less the lives of the children you’re willing to sacrifice.”

Smith is pushing this line of attack on the X/Twitter platform as well.

“AMERICA FIRST AND ANTI-WAR”

Smith describes himself as “a hard-working, American bread-winner for a beautiful family of nine. Yes, nine.” Photos of his seven children are sprinkled throughout the ad.

Explaining his stance as “an America first, anti-war veteran,” he adds,

And when I say America first and anti-war, I actually mean it. I want our tax dollars to go to us. And I don’t want our tax dollars to go to anyone else.

Yes, I’m against that war. [viewer sees a child draped in the Ukrainian flag and the TIME magazine cover featuring Ukrainian president Zelenskyy as Person of the Year, then an unidentified explosion]

I’m also against that war too. [viewer sees a child draped in the Israeli flag, then footage of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and an unidentified explosion]

And all the other smaller, undeclared genocides that you and your DC cronies continue to fund with Iowa tax dollars.

I refuse to let you ship a single one of my amazing, beautiful children overseas to die for a single one of your fraudulent causes.

Smith again connects his fatherly role to his politics near the end of the spot, when he says Ernst has two years to prove him wrong. “But until then, I’ll be here trying to raise a strong family in a failing economy that you helped create. But every time one of these kids goes down for a nap or attends a wrestling practice, you can count on me to be the thorn in your side, reminding everyone just how much Joni Ernst sucks at her job.”

A FEW NODS TO LIBERTARIAN IDEAS

As Bleeding Heartland previously reported, Ernst’s primary challenger was a Libertarian activist for years and ran for the Iowa Senate in 2024 as a candidate from that party. While Smith supported Trump for president and recently changed his party affiliation to Republican, his debut ad incorporates some messages more commonly heard from Libertarians than from MAGA.

The anti-war emphasis is one example. In addition, some footage shows Smith wearing a “STOP THE WAR ON DRUGS” t-shirt.

Iowa’s leading Republican politicians, including members of Congress, Governor Kim Reynolds, and Attorney General Brenna Bird, have often touted their steadfast support for Israel. In contrast, Smith’s ad shows the Israeli flag in a negative context several times. At one point, the viewer sees footage of Ernst standing and nodding next to Netanyahu as the Israeli prime minister speaks. Smith comments, “I mean, I imagine the secret checks help the blood money go down a little easier.”

IS “YOU SUCK, JONI” A WINNING MESSAGE?

Near the middle of the spot, Smith repeats his main talking point with faux politeness: “You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far. And please believe me when I say, the longer this goes on, the louder I’m gonna get.”

There’s no doubt many Republicans have come to dislike Ernst. And several MAGA influencers with large social media followings have shared Smith’s ad this week. Nevertheless, I question whether he can gain enough traction to seriously threaten the senator in a GOP primary.

Senator Chuck Grassley received about 73.3 percent of the vote in the 2022 GOP primary, when he faced an under-funded pro-Trump challenger from the right. According to the statewide statistical report, nearly 80 percent of Republicans who cast ballots in that primary election were at least 50 years old. More than half of those GOP primary voters were aged 65 or older.

Turnout in various age cohorts may not be exactly the same in the next election cycle. But you can take this to the bank: the majority of 2026 Republican primary voters will be old enough to remember political life before Trump. Even if they are not wild about Ernst, I doubt that demographic will embrace someone who opposes aid to Israel and shows so little respect for a military veteran and two-term senator.

I continue to believe that unless Trump publicly weighs in against her, Ernst will be heavily favored to win the 2026 nomination. And she seems determined not to give the incoming president any reason to back a primary challenger.