Three takes on Iowa's 2024 general election turnout

Ninth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

With the 2024 election results finalized following the December 2 meeting of the State Board of Canvass, we know the basics about Iowa’s general election turnout.

More information about voter participation by age group, gender, and party affiliation will be available when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes the statewide statistical report in January 2025.

A few takeaways for now:

TURNOUT WAS DOWN BY ONLY 1.5 PERCENT COMPARED TO 2020

Iowans cast 1,674,011 ballots in the 2024 general election, down from 1,700,130 in 2020. That’s a raw vote decline of about 1.5 percent—quite a bit less than what happened in many other states that were not competitive on the presidential level.

University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald, who runs the university’s Election Lab program, deserves a shout out. His forecast of 1.65 million ballots cast in Iowa this year was very close to the mark.

McDonald and other experts in this field measure turnout as a percentage of the voting-eligible population, because “voter registration turnout rates are not comparable across space and time.” The UF Election Lab calculated Iowa’s turnout at 70.78 percent for the 2024 general election, down from 72.04 percent in 2020.

Figures provided by the Iowa Secretary of State’s office, based on the percentage of registered voters who cast ballots, indicate that the statewide turnout rate was 74.17 percent this year, down from 75.77 percent in 2020. (This page explains why turnout as a percentage of eligible voters is a more useful metric than turnout as a percentage of registered voters in a given state.)

I expected turnout to drop more from the record-setting 2020 numbers, for a few reasons. First, the Secretary of State’s office mailed absentee ballot request forms to all registered voters in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Iowa law now prohibits the secretary of state and county auditors from universal mailings of absentee ballot request forms. County auditors cannot send a form to any voter who did not specifically ask for one.

Second, Iowa’s early voting window is now just 20 days, down from 29 days in 2020. Other Republican changes to state law made it harder to deliver completed absentee ballots, and required all ballots to arrive at county elections offices by 8:00 pm on election day. (For many years, late-arriving absentee ballots could be counted in Iowa if they were postmarked by at least the day before the election.)

Third, both parties targeted three of Iowa’s four U.S. House races in 2020, but only two Congressional districts saw much spending and campaign activity this year.

I would guess that the Republican Party of Iowa’s statewide investment in early GOTV kept GOP general election turnout much closer to the 2020 level than the turnout rate for Democrats. Outside of the first and third Congressional districts and a handful of state legislative races, there wasn’t much of a coordinated Democratic campaign. We will know more when the statewide statistical report comes out in January.

IOWA SLIPPING IN NATIONAL RANKINGS FOR TOP TURNOUT

Iowa has traditionally had higher turnout than the national average, which remained true in 2024. The UF Election Lab measured the nationwide 2024 general election turnout rate at 63.76 percent, well below Iowa’s 70.78 percent.

Nine states had higher turnout than Iowa this year, according to the Election Lab calculations:

Wisconsin (76.93 percent)
Minnesota (76.35 percent)
Michigan (74.64 percent)
Maine (74.24 percent)
Colorado (73.12 percent)
New Hampshire (74.14 percent)
Pennsylvania (71.43 percent)
Virginia (71.06 percent)
Vermont (70.89 percent)

Minnesota has long been one of the top states for voter participation. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were among the swing states both presidential campaigns targeted this year.

Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Vermont have automatic voter registration programs, which help ensure that more eligible voters are able to participate.

Colorado and Vermont are among the eight states that conduct elections entirely by mail, so all registered voters receive a ballot and have several weeks to return it.

McDonald’s analysis put Iowa’s 2020 general election turnout at 72.04 percent of the voting-eligible population. Eight states had higher turnout rates than Iowa that year:

Minnesota (79.21 percent)
Colorado (76.69 percent)
Oregon (75.33 percent)
Washington (75.33 percent)
Wisconsin (75.04 percent)
Maine (74.87 percent)
New Hampshire (73.96 percent)
Michigan (73.27 percent)

Again, most were swing states in the presidential election, states with automatic voter registration, or states that send all voters a ballot. While Iowa wasn’t a battleground state for the presidency four years ago, the campaign between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield was one of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in the country.

Iowa used to do a little better in the national turnout rankings. Only five states (Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, and Wisconsin) had better turnout than Iowa in 2004. Only five (Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin) had higher turnout rates in 2008 and in 2016. Only Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire beat Iowa’s turnout rate in 2012.

Secretary of State Paul Pate has often said he wants to make it “easier to vote and harder to cheat.” If so, he could suggest that Iowa lawmakers enact successful policies from higher-turnout states.

Instead, Pate has signaled he and Republican lawmakers plan “to take action on noncitizen voting in the upcoming legislative session.” There’s no evidence that any significant number of non-citizens have voted in recent Iowa elections.

The Secretary of State’s office declined to provide further details to Bleeding Heartland on forthcoming legislative proposals. Many Republicans have endorsed “proof of citizenship” bills, which create barriers for anyone who can’t easily locate the relevant documents. One national survey conducted this year indicated that “About 1 in 10 adult citizens, or 21.3 million eligible voters, say they either do not have or could not quickly find in order to show the next day their U.S. birth certificate, passport, naturalization certificate or certificate of citizenship.” That problem would disproportionately impact people of color, who are more likely than white voters to support Democratic candidates.

As John Deeth has noted, requiring proof of citizenship could also cause problems for college students, whose legal documents may be back home. Another group potentially affected: women whose surname on their standard form of voter ID (such as a driver’s license) doesn’t match the name on their birth certificate or Social Security card, due to a marriage or divorce. Not everyone has proof of a legal name change close at hand.

IOWA COUNTIES WITH HIGHEST AND LOWEST TURNOUT

The Iowa Secretary of State’s office compiled this chart comparing 2020 and 2024 general election turnout statewide and in all 99 counties. These figures are expressed as a percentage of registered voters, not as a percentage of the voting eligible population. So according to the secretary of state, the statewide turnout was 75.77 percent four years ago and 74.17 percent this year.

Eight counties had turnout rates above 80 percent in 2024:

Harrison (84.03 percent)
Delaware (81.77 percent)
Warren (80.94 percent)
Ringgold (80.75 percent)
Dallas (80.73 percent)
Monona (80.44 percent)
Sioux (80.39 percent)
Cedar (80.16 percent)

Most of those were also near the top for turnout in 2020. Several are rural counties with older populations than the statewide average. (Turnout rates tend to increase with age.) Warren and Dallas counties, fast-growing parts in the Des Moines metro, have considerably higher median incomes than the statewide average. (People who are relatively well-off are more likely to vote consistently.)

Twelve counties had 2024 turnout rates below 70 percent of registered voters. They were also well below the statewide average in 2020.

Buena Vista (62.92 percent)
Woodbury (66.86 percent)
Crawford (66.89 percent)
Webster (67.69 percent)
Pottawattamie (67.82 percent)
Muscatine (68.05 percent)
Wapello (68.25 percent)
Des Moines (68.34 percent)
Poweshiek (68.70 percent)
Scott (68.77 percent)
Montgomery (69.87 percent)
Louisa (69.88 percent)

Historically, turnout in Sioux City (Woodbury), Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie), and the Quad Cities (Scott) has been lower than in Iowa’s other larger cities.

Several of these counties contain mid-sized cities like Fort Dodge (Webster), Muscatine, Ottumwa (Wapello), and Burlington (Des Moines). Several contain large meatpacking plants, including the cities of Storm Lake (Buena Vista), Denison (Crawford), Ottumwa, and Columbus Junction (Louisa).

Latinos who are U.S. citizens typically turn out to vote at lower rates than non-Hispanic whites. Crawford, Buena Vista, Muscatine, Woodbury, Louisa, and Wapello are all among the top eleven Iowa counties for Latinos as a percentage of the total population.

If the secretary of state wants to increase voter participation, his staff could focus on boosting engagement in areas with persistently low turnout compared to the statewide average.

Top photo taken at a satellite voting location in Iowa City was first published on the Facebook page of the Johnson County Auditor and Commissioner of Elections on October 23.