Eighth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Iowans could reasonably view the 2016 general election as an anomaly. Diverging sharply from the national mood, this state voted for Donald Trump by more than a 9-point margin, even as Hillary Clinton won the nationwide popular vote by a little more than 2 points. But maybe that was a one-off; Iowa had been a swing state for the previous six presidential elections.

When Joe Biden failed to flip a single Iowa county in 2020—even heavily Catholic counties where he should have done substantially better than Clinton—I concluded that Iowa was no longer a swing state. That post got some pushback from Democrats who thought I was reading too much into the results.

Trump’s third win in Iowa, by his largest margin yet, underscores how far this state has moved from the center of the national electorate. As Democrats search for a way back to winning more statewide and down-ballot races, they need to recognize that reality.

A COMPREHENSIVE VICTORY

Final results certified on December 2 show that 927,019 Iowans voted for Trump and 707,278 for Vice President Kamala Harris (55.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Even though statewide turnout was down by about 1.5 percent compared to the last presidential election, Trump received nearly 30,000 more raw votes than he did in 2020, when he defeated Biden by 53.1 percent to 44.9 percent. Harris’s vote total was more than 50,000 below Biden’s.

Trump flipped Scott County and increased his majority in longtime Democratic strongholds along the Mississippi River. He held Harris below 50 percent in Black Hawk County, which (like Scott) hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1984.

By my calculations, Trump carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot in 2024, and 71 of the 100 state House districts.

Iowa’s statewide swing toward Trump of about 5 points from 2020 to 2024 was fairly close to the national swing toward the Republican nominee. But Iowa’s starting point was far to the right of the national electorate, which preferred Biden four years ago.

A SHORT HISTORY OF IOWA’S PRESIDENTIAL VOTING

Iowa’s “Partisanship Score” shows enormous shifts over the past 60 years, with a GOP advantage solidifying during the Trump era.

This spreadsheet by the Daily Kos Elections team (now publishing as The Downballot) explains the concept: partisanship score “compares the percentage point difference in the two-party-only vote share margin between Democrats and Republicans” in each state with the national result in a given year.

The measurement makes it easier to understand how voter preferences in each state relate to the U.S. electorate as a whole. It can lead to some counterintuitive results. For instance, Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in Iowa by 24 points in 1964. But since the national election was also a Democratic landslide, Iowa’s partisanship score was just D+1.

Iowa was less in step with the national mood during the Nixon years. Iowans voted for Richard Nixon over Hubert Humphrey in 1968 by 53.0 percent to 40.8 percent—much more than Nixon’s national popular vote advantage of 0.7 percent. That produced a partisanship score of R+12. Iowans voted to re-elect Nixon in 1972 by a huge margin of 57.6 percent to 40.5 percent for George McGovern. But Nixon won the nationwide popular vote that year by more than 23 points. So paradoxically, Iowa’s partisanship score in 1972 was D+6, indicating that Iowans voted six points to the left of Americans generally.

Four years later, Gerald Ford carried Iowa by a 1-point margin. But since Jimmy Carter won the national popular vote by about 2 points, Iowa’s partisanship score was R+3.

The farm crisis of the 1980s caused a dramatic change in Iowa voting patterns, relative to the rest of the country. The state’s partisanship score went from R+4 in 1980 (a comfortable victory for Ronald Reagan) to D+11 in 1984, when Reagan carried Iowa by 53.3 percent to 45.9 percent while winning nationally by 18 points.

The 1988 presidential election was a high water mark for Iowa Democrats. Michael Dukakis carried 75 of the 99 counties en route to winning the state by 10 points. Meanwhile, George H.W. Bush won nationally by nearly 8 points, giving Iowa a partisanship score of D+18—hard to believe, even for those old enough to remember it.

20 YEARS AS BELLWETHER ENDS

Then came a period of relative stability: for six elections in a row, Iowa’s popular vote for president was not far off from the national popular vote. Our partisanship score was D+1 in 1992, D+2 in 1996, R+0 in 2000, and D+2 in 2004, 2008, and 2012.

Iowans who became politically aware during this period had good reason to think our state would remain a presidential battleground indefinitely.

Trump was expected to carry Iowa in 2016, since Clinton invested little in the general election campaign here. That said, most observers (aside from Iowa Poll director Ann Selzer) didn’t anticipate the scale of the GOP victory. Trump’s 9-point win in Iowa translated to a partisanship score of R+12, since Clinton won the national popular vote.

Even though Trump carried Iowa by slightly less in 2020 (finishing about 8 points ahead of Biden), the state’s partisanship score moved further to the right of American voters (R+13).

This year’s national popular vote is not quite fully counted, but Trump is on track to beat Harris by 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent. Iowa’s partisanship score will be in the range of R+12 again.

A HARDER ROAD FOR DOWN-BALLOT DEMOCRATS

A lopsided vote for president creates problems for Democrats seeking other offices. In 2016, the party suffered net losses of two state House seats and six Iowa Senate seats. Flipping the upper chamber gave Republicans their first Iowa trifecta since the 1990s, with devastating results in many policy areas.

In 2020, Republicans picked up two of the three U.S. House districts Democrats held in Iowa, maintained their large state Senate majority, and had a net gain of six state House districts.

This year, Christina Bohannan fell agonizingly short in the first Congressional district, as Trump’s win by 8.4 points pulled GOP incumbent Mariannnette Miller-Meeks over the line. Lanon Baccam held his own in the third Congressional district, but that wasn’t good enough to beat Representative Zach Nunn when Trump carried the district by 4.4 points. Trump and Biden had nearly tied across the counties that now make up IA-03.

Republicans also expanded their legislative cohorts again. Their Iowa Senate majority (35-15) will be the largest since the early 1960s, and their Iowa House majority (67-33) will be the largest since 1970. The GOP lost only one state Senate seat and one state House seat while picking up two Democratic seats in the upper chamber and four in the lower chamber. In most of the legislative districts that flipped, the Democratic nominee outperformed Harris—but not by enough to win.

Democrats have reason to hope for a decent midterm election. The party picked up two of Iowa’s U.S. House seats and several state legislative seats in 2018, the last time Republicans had a trifecta in Washington.

On the other hand, Democrats are starting from a deeper hole now than during Trump’s first term. The GOP has a large voter registration advantage and more resources to turn out their base. For the first time in recent memory, more Iowa Republicans than Democrats cast ballots before election day. Candidate recruitment and fundraising will be more challenging, compared to cycles when Iowa was widely perceived as a purple state.

The first step toward finding a solution is acknowledging the scale of the problem.

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Top image was first published on Donald Trump’s campaign Facebook page.