U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has not officially been re-elected in Iowa’s first Congressional district, where Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan is seeking a recount in all 20 counties. But a message to fellow House Republicans indicates the IA-01 incumbent is already worried about the “tough road” facing members from swing districts during the 2026 election cycle.

Miller-Meeks failed in her bid to become House Conference secretary, the sixth-ranking GOP leadership position. It’s not clear how many Republicans supported her on November 13, when she finished third of three candidates on the first ballot. Caucus members then elected Representative Erin Houchin of Indiana over Mark Alford of Missouri. Both represent safe GOP districts.

A “Dear colleague” letter Miller-Meeks circulated on November 12—enclosed in full below—warned Republicans will struggle to expand their majority without including members from “battleground districts” in the party’s leadership.

AN AWKWARD PITCH

Though Republicans are guaranteed to keep control the U.S. House, they will likely hold at most 222 of the 435 seats. Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida, Donald Trump’s pick for attorney general, has already resigned from Congress, in an apparent effort to head off the release of a House Ethics Committee report. Two other House Republicans will soon leave the chamber for roles in Trump’s administration: Elise Stefanik of New York is set to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Mike Waltz of Florida will be Trump’s national security adviser.

Republicans should have no trouble holding all of those seats in special elections. But the temporary vacancies will leave little margin for error as the majority party tackles issues that could split the caucus: funding the government, passing a Farm Bill, raising the debt ceiling, or repealing the Inflation Reduction Act.

Miller-Meeks made three arguments in support of her candidacy for conference secretary. The first addressed the elephant in the room: the IA-01 race has not yet been called. She assured colleagues she will win: “We currently hold an 800-plus vote lead over our opponent and it is mathematically impossible for the ground to be made up with the remaining provisional ballots left to be counted. I have no doubt that my election will be certified and I will be victorious…by more than 6 votes.”

I agree that recounting 414,000 ballots cannot realistically overturn a lead of 800 votes. The rest of Miller-Meeks’ pitch was less convincing.

A PROVEN “ABILITY TO OVERCOME CHALLENGES”?

Miller-Meeks prevailed in the closest U.S. House race in the country in 2020, and her race is among the last dozen to be called this year. Her letter to colleagues spun this less-than-dominating performance as an asset: “My highly competitive district is reflective of the nation and our conference.”

While House leaders have normally come from safe seats, Miller-Meeks argued, “I wholeheartedly believe that if this Republican Conference is going to win more than a few-seat majority each cycle, we must begin to include members who are elected from battleground districts at the leadership table.”

It’s a fair point, since winning a battleground district requires skills a member from a safe seat might never develop. But is Miller-Meeks the best person to make this claim? “I have proven that I have the ability to overcome challenges to continue to represent a swing district and we must ensure that we focus on our incumbents, as well as our challengers, to continue our success.”

Remember: Miller-Meeks leads her opponent by 0.2 points (49.98 percent to 49.79 percent) in a district Trump carried by 8.4 points (53.3 percent to 44.9 percent).

Scraping by while the presidential nominee doubles his margin in your district hardly demonstrates an “ability to overcome challenges.” Especially since Miller-Meeks managed just 56 percent of the vote against an under-funded Trumpy opponent in this year’s GOP primary.

She went on:

The seats we need to expand our majority will come from swing or Democrat districts, and I think it would be beneficial to have someone in leadership who knows this struggle and that can help prepare our members for that tough road that 2026 promises to be. 

Why a “tough road”? She didn’t need to spell it out: everyone in Washington knows the president’s party typically loses House seats in midterm elections.

Miller-Meeks promised to help defend vulnerable colleagues.

“I WOULD COMMIT TO RAISE HARD EARNED DOLLARS”

Miller-Meeks cited her connections to other House members and industries, built through her work on the Energy and Commerce and Veterans Affairs Committees, as well as her leadership of the Conservative Climate Caucus.

I have traveled to over 20 states this cycle to build relationships with Republican stakeholders. With these relationships, I would commit to raise hard earned dollars to support our incumbents and challengers across the country. In two terms, I have given over $1 million to the NRCC, candidates, and legal funds combined in efforts to protect and grow our majority. This is all in addition to raising approximately $5 million for my own election each cycle. 

According to campaign finance data compiled by OpenSecrets, Miller-Meeks has raised substantially more than her competitors for conference secretary, Houchin and Alford. And she has donated some of those funds to the National Republican Congressional Committee, the main House GOP campaign arm.

On the other hand, defending Iowa’s first district has come at a high cost. In addition to what Miller-Meeks raised and spent, GOP-aligned groups spent around $2.7 million to support her or oppose Bohannan during the 2022 election cycle, when Bohannan got almost no outside help.

This year, outside groups made nearly $7 million in independent expenditures to boost Miller-Meeks or attack her challenger. That doesn’t take into account Republican attorney Alan Ostergren’s work to knock a Libertarian opponent off the ballot—without which Miller-Meeks probably would have lost. It’s not clear who (if anyone) paid those legal fees.

Also worth noting: during the latest election cycle, Bohannan out-raised the incumbent for five quarters in a row.

Despite this year’s disappointing results for Iowa Democrats, there’s a good chance the party will target IA-01 again in 2026, when Trump won’t be on the ballot to drag Miller-Meeks over the line. Republican-aligned groups will probably spend heavily to save her seat. But protecting her would have been a higher priority if she had made it onto the leadership team.

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Appendix: Full text of “Dear colleague” letter Mariannette Miller-Meeks circulated to other House Republicans on November 12

Colleagues,

I am honored to put forth my candidacy for Secretary of the House Republican Conference. We come off of a successful and historic election thanks to President Trump and an America First agenda, and I believe we have an opportunity to lead while working to cement our majority for Congresses to come. 

First, I will be successfully re-elected to represent Iowa’s First Congressional District. We currently hold an 800-plus vote lead over our opponent and it is mathematically impossible for the ground to be made up with the remaining provisional ballots left to be counted. I have no doubt that my election will be certified and I will be victorious…by more than 6 votes. 

My highly competitive district is reflective of the nation and our conference. In my re-election bid this year, I was honored to earn the support of so many in our Conference, from the House Freedom Caucus to the Republican Study Committee to the Governing Majority and the Republican Main Street Groups. 

Second, I wholeheartedly believe that if this Republican Conference is going to win more than a few-seat majority each cycle, we must begin to include members who are elected from battleground districts at the leadership table. I have proven that I have the ability to overcome challenges to continue to represent a swing district and we must ensure that we focus on our incumbents, as well as our challengers, to continue our success. The seats we need to expand our majority will come from swing or Democrat districts, and I think it would be beneficial to have someone in leadership who knows this struggle and that can help prepare our members for that tough road that 2026 promises to be. 

Third, in my positions on the Energy and Commerce and the Veterans Affairs Committees, Chairwoman of the Conservative Climate Caucus, and the numerous working groups with which I am involved, I have a distinct opportunity to meet with members and industries from across the country and garner relationships across all spectrums. I have traveled to over 20 states this cycle to build relationships with Republican stakeholders. With these relationships, I would commit to raise hard earned dollars to support our incumbents and challengers across the country. In two terms, I have given over $1 million to the NRCC, candidates, and legal funds combined in efforts to protect and grow our majority. This is all in addition to raising approximately $5 million for my own election each cycle. 

I look forward to working with President Trump, House Leadership, and my colleagues in advancing our Republican agenda and delivering for the American people. I hope to hear from you on how we can work together to enhance our Conference as your Secretary. 

Respectfully,

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, M.D.

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Top image is cropped from a photo Mariannette Miller-Meeks posted on her campaign’s Facebook page on November 8.