Every Iowa Democratic candidate had reason to celebrate the latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 4 points (47 percent to 43 percent). But arguably none had more grounds for optimism than Lanon Baccam, the Democratic nominee in Iowa’s third Congressional district.

According to calculations by the Daily Kos Elections team (now publishing as The Downballot), Trump outpolled Joe Biden across the IA-03 counties by 49.3 percent to 48.9 percent in 2020, while winning the state by an 8-point margin. So if Harris trails by only 4 points statewide now, she likely leads Trump in the third district.

Assuming the Selzer poll is off by the margin of error (plus or minus 3.8 percentage points), and Trump has an 8-point lead statewide, the major-party presidential nominees may be roughly tied in the IA-03 counties.

In other words, Baccam won’t have to overcome strong headwinds at the top of the ticket in order to beat first-term Republican Representative Zach Nunn, who carried this district by 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent in 2022.

I’ve been thinking about what else needs to happen for the challenger to win in November.

BACKGROUND ON IOWA’S LEAST RED HOUSE DISTRICT

Iowa’s third district covers the red area on this map.

All four of Iowa’s U.S. House districts favor Republicans, but the third is the most balanced. It was decided by the closest margin (less than 1 percent) in 2022. The latest voter registration totals from the Iowa Secretary of State’s office indicate that IA-03 contains 178,405 registered Democrats, 183,229 Republicans, 182,483 no-party voters, and 4,322 Libertarians.

Election forecasters have long placed this contest among the 30 to 40 battleground U.S. House races. Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket all rate IA-03 as “lean Republican,” while Inside Elections puts it in the more competitive “tilt Republican” category. Although Nunn won narrowly in 2022, he has the incumbency advantage now.

The Cook Partisan Voting Index for this district is R+3, meaning that in the last two presidential elections, voters living in the 21 counties that now make up IA-03 voted about three points more Republican than did the national electorate. Split Ticket’s presidential polling tracker currently shows Harris ahead nationally by an average of 2.5 percent—which would suggest no clear advantage for either party’s presidential nominee in IA-03.

The only recent published poll of this race, commissioned by a group that supports term limits for Congress, found Baccam leading Nunn in the initial ballot test by 42 percent to 39 percent, with 14 percent unsure and 5 percent saying they would not vote.

Internal polling has the GOP spooked. Nunn has tv ads in heavy rotation on Des Moines-based stations. Republican-aligned groups have been testing negative messages against Baccam—I received one of the telephone surveys myself. The National Republican Congressional Committee is currently running a radio ad that ties Baccam to Biden and claims the Democrat would “roll out the red carpet” for undocumented immigrants.

So what does Baccam need to flip this district?

1. PROBABLY AT LEAST 220,000 VOTES

It’s too early to forecast turnout for the November election, but we know many more voters will participate than in the 2022 midterm, in which Nunn defeated Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne by 156,261 votes to 154,117.

2024 is the first presidential election cycle using the current Congressional map. Twelve of the IA-03 counties were also part of this district last decade, including Polk and Dallas, where about 75 percent of Nunn’s constituents live. In the last presidential year, Axne defeated former Representative David Young by 219,205 votes to 212,997 (48.9 percent to 47.5 percent). Another 15,361 voters (3.4 percent) backed Libertarian candidate Bryan Jack Holder.

I don’t expect this year’s turnout to match the 2020 level of nearly 448,000 votes cast. Universal mailings of absentee ballot request forms—a response to the COVID-19 pandemic—helped Iowa break modern turnout records in the 2020 primary and general elections. Republicans subsequently prohibited the secretary of state or county auditors from sending absentee ballot request forms to all registered voters in their jurisdictions, and shortened Iowa’s early voting window.

On the other hand, Polk and Dallas counties have continued to gain population since 2020. And without any third-party candidates on the ballot, the winner in IA-03 will likely need a majority of votes cast—in contrast to 2020, when Axne won re-election with just under 49 percent.

Libertarian Marco Battaglia is running a write-in campaign in IA-03 after the Iowa Supreme Court upheld a decision excluding him from the ballot. But past results indicate write-in candidates for U.S. House races in Iowa receive far below 1 percent of the vote, whereas third-party options listed on the ballot often receive between 2 percent and 4 percent.

2. HIGH DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT, ESPECIALLY IN POLK COUNTY

Republicans have a longstanding turnout advantage in Iowa’s elections, which was a factor in several of the last cycle’s losses for Democrats.

The statewide statistical report showed that 60 percent of registered Iowa Democrats participated in the 2022 midterm, compared to 66.8 percent of registered Republicans. Democratic turnout was higher than in 2010 and 2014, but down considerably from 2018, when 67.7 percent of registered Democrats turned out, and the party won three of Iowa’s four U.S. House races.

The GOP’s voter registration advantage in IA-03 is small. But if Republicans also have a sizeable turnout advantage in November, Baccam will have a hill to climb. The statewide statistical report from 2020 measured turnout at 85.0 percent for Republicans, 80.9 percent for Democrats, and 64.5 percent for no-party voters.

Polk County is key

Iowa’s largest county (containing Des Moines and most of its suburbs) is crucial for Democratic prospects in this Congressional race. It was the only county Axne carried in 2018 and 2020; she ran up the score by enough in Polk to make up for her deficits in the rest of the counties. Keeping it close in Dallas County, containing the far western suburbs of Des Moines, will also be important for Baccam.

About three-quarters of the 310,378 votes cast in IA-03 in 2022 came from Polk or Dallas counties: 61 percent from Polk, 14 percent from Dallas.

As I observed shortly after the 2022 midterm, Polk County turnout was down about 7.7 percent compared to the 2018 general election. Unfortunately for Axne, Democrats stayed home in larger numbers than Republicans. Polk County delivered a lead of 33,473 votes to Axne in 2018, but only a 26,498-vote advantage in 2022. She lost to Nunn by 2,144 votes.

In other words, Axne did what she needed to do in the red counties, but fell short in the blue county. Remarkably, Nunn received almost as many Polk County votes in the last election (81,903) as the GOP incumbent David Young did in 2018 (82,404)—even though overall turnout was substantially higher in 2018.

Nunn was fortunate no third-party candidates qualified for the ballot in 2022. Independent or third-party candidates in IA-03 had received about 3.5 percent of the vote in 2018. I believe Axne would have won a third term if a Libertarian had been on the ballot.

Nunn got lucky again this year, because Republican activists successfully knocked the Libertarian competition off the ballot. Most political observers agree Baccam would have benefited from having Battaglia listed as an option for IA-03 voters. We’ll never know.

Positive signs for Baccam

A couple of factors are working in the challenger’s favor. Selzer’s new Iowa poll found voters backing Harris are now more enthusiastic than those who plan to vote for Trump. Compared to the previous Iowa poll, in which Trump led Biden by 18 points, several Democratic-leaning groups are now more likely to vote: “Women show an 8-percentage-point uptick in likely voting since June, Iowans younger than 45 show a 10-point increase, city dwellers show a 6-point bounce, and those with a college degree are up 9 points.”

Another thing Baccam has going for him: Polk County Democrats have a stronger GOTV operation than I’ve seen before. They have put together approximately 95,000 door bags with information about Baccam and other candidates, a note encouraging membership in the nearest Democratic neighborhood group, and two absentee ballot request forms (more if additional registered Democrats live in the household). Some neighborhood groups have already delivered the bags to targeted households; I received one from a Windsor Heights volunteer in late August.

A recent Polk Dems newsletter included this picture of bags, boxed by precinct and ready to be delivered during a “Massive Day of Action” on September 7. According to the Polk County Democrats, volunteers that day took 117 turfs, each covering an average of 40 homes, and distributed door bags to more than 7,400 voters in low-turnout precincts on the east side of Des Moines and in eastern Polk County.

Polk County Democrats also have plans to promote early voting in person (my preferred method). Closer to the election, they will remind voters to return their absentee ballots, help voters correct errors (such as forgetting to sign the outside envelope on mailed ballots), and drive voters to the polls.

A half-dozen competitive state legislative races are located within Polk County: Senate districts 20 and 22, and House districts 40, 41, 42, and 43. Those Democratic candidates and their volunteer networks have already contacted thousands of voters through canvassing, phone banks, texting, or postcards and will continue to GOTV through November 5.

Dallas County Democrats are well-organized too, in part because that county contains some battleground state legislative races, notably Senate district 14 and House districts 27 and 28.

3. A STRONG PERFORMANCE AMONG SWING VOTERS

Baccam can’t win IA-03 with the Democratic base alone. He will need to beat Nunn or at least hold his own among independents, who vote in much higher numbers in presidential years than midterms.

Raising his name ID will be essential. An internal poll by GQR for Baccam’s campaign indicated that in late June, only 37 percent of IA-03 voters knew enough about the challenger to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, while 82 percent were familiar with Nunn. Despite the incumbent’s higher profile, that survey showed Nunn and Baccam tied at 43 percent. The campaign didn’t release full results from that poll, so some skepticism about the ballot test is warranted. But incumbents are almost always better-known than first-time candidates.

For the past month, Baccam has been running tv and digital ads highlighting his background. In one spot, he talks about enlisting in the National Guard at age 17, deploying to Afghanistan, and working in the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Another recounts his experience building barracks in Afghanistan, fixing trucks, and “making do with what you’ve got,” contrasting that approach with Washington politicians who give tax cuts to billionaires.

Talking to “the people in the middle”

Speaking to reporters at his campaign’s Windsor Heights office on August 24, Baccam said volunteers have been hitting “persuasion doors.” He explained, “We know Democrats are super-excited about this election cycle right now. We can see that clearly coming out of this [Democratic National] Convention: people are fired up.” Each weekend in August, more than a dozen volunteers were out on the doors. “And the folks that we’re talking to are the people in the middle”—independents, “Republicans who are dissatisfied with their party,” and voters who care about issues and “are tired of the constant barrage of politics that we continue to see from extreme conversations” on the other side.

Asked what is happening outside Polk County, Baccam said Democrats are organizing weekends of action in rural as well as urban areas. In early August, volunteers knocked the entire town of Fontanelle (population 676 in deep red Adair County). He added that he’s been to every county in the district, and “We will continue to show up everywhere.” He’s visited Adams County—the smallest in Iowa—three times already.

Compared to the first and second districts, IA-03 has fewer “pivot” counties, which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, then for Trump in 2016 and 2020. But one of them is Wapello County, the third most populous in the district. I asked Baccam what his campaign has going in Wapello specifically. He replied that Ottumwa is in a “critically important county for us.” Growing up in nearby Mount Pleasant (Henry County, located in IA-01), Baccam went to Ottumwa often to see relatives or play high school sports.

Baccam said he’s committed to show up and talk to voters in the Ottumwa area, and his campaign has been coordinating with other Democratic candidates there. Across the district, he said, “We are deeply coordinated with our legislative candidates,” sharing information and materials to hand out at the doors.

Education, abortion among top issues for voters

When I asked what topics he’s hearing about most often, Baccam told me, “No question, hands down, the most surprising thing to me this entire campaign is how dissatisfied Iowans are with the direction of this state when it comes to public education. People are terrified of what the school voucher program’s going to do to their small towns, and people understand and know this.” Towns “fall apart” when they lose their school, and Iowans are “fed up and fired up.”

While many education-related issues are decided at the state level, Baccam pointed to opportunities at the federal level, “to make sure that we have a Head Start program,” and to get Iowa enrolled in the USDA’s summer meal program for kids.

Women’s rights are another hot topic on the campaign trail, Baccam said—which isn’t surprising, since “abortion is now banned in Iowa, before most women even know they’re pregnant.” He has already run ads promising to stand up for “women’s freedoms, including abortion rights.” Another spot reminds voters that Nunn raised his hand in 2022 when a debate moderator asked GOP candidates, “Should all abortions be illegal in this country—all abortions, no exceptions?”

Reproductive rights should be a salient issue everywhere in Iowa, now that a near-total abortion ban is in effect. For years, polls have indicated a solid majority of Iowa adults believe abortion should be mostly or always legal. The topic may be particularly relevant in IA-03, since many pro-choice swing voters and moderate Republicans live in the Des Moines suburbs.

Baccam hinted at another theme of future ads when he mentioned helping “folks retire with dignity” in a state with an aging population. He said a group Nunn belongs to (an apparent reference to the House Republican Study Committee) had proposed a budget that would raise the Social Security retirement age from 67 to 70.

How are folks who work in a factory for a living going to do that? My mom and dad worked in a factory for 25 years each. My mom is a little Asian lady who stacked 40-pound boxes of envelopes on a pallet until they were taller than her. I mean, that’s really hard, physically demanding labor.

And manufacturing continues to be the backbone of the employment base here in Iowa, across our rural districts. Like, people are not going to be able to do that into their 70s. And that’s a really hard thing to ask folks to do.

Closer to the election, Bleeding Heartland will review the main campaign messages for Baccam and Nunn.

4. THE RESOURCES TO COMPETE DISTRICT-WIDE

Baccam’s already checked this box by out-raising Nunn during all three quarters he’s been a candidate. As of June 30, the Democrat had raised more than $2.7 million for the cycle, and his campaign had nearly $1.6 million cash on hand. That’s enough to fund a credible effort, especially since most IA-03 voters live in the Des Moines media market. (Wapello and Davis counties are part of the Ottumwa/Kirksville, Missouri market, and Cass, Montgomery, and Page counties receive Omaha-based tv stations.)

As of June 30, Nunn’s campaign had raised more overall (just under $4 million) and had $2.4 million cash on hand. The incumbent’s financial advantage stems from being in the race longer, and raising more from political action committees (about $1.46 million as of June 30, compared to $178,000 in PAC contributions to Baccam).

In addition to what Nunn and Baccam will spend directly from their campaigns, outside groups will spend millions on television, radio, and digital ad buys, direct mail, and field staff. Axne was at a big disadvantage in 2022, when GOP-aligned groups spent $1,527,124 supporting Nunn and $4,721,235 opposing the incumbent. Meanwhile, Democratic-aligned groups spent just $294,707 supporting Axne and $1,817,635 opposing her GOP challenger.

Spending plans for IA-03 appear less lopsided, for now. The Downballot team created a spreadsheet showing TV ad reservations by the biggest-spending outside groups in U.S. House races. As of September 15, Democratic-aligned groups had reserved $2,937,000 on Des Moines-based stations (about $1.55 million for the DCCC and $1.39 million for the House Majority PAC). While some of those funds will go toward helping Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan in IA-01, the bulk of it will be used to influence IA-03 voters.

Meanwhile, Republican-aligned groups had reserved $3,720,000 worth of Des Moines tv air time ($720,000 for the NRCC and $3 million for the Congressional Leadership Fund). Again, most of that amount will pay for ads seeking to influence voters in IA-03.

Any comments related to the Baccam-Nunn race are welcome in this thread. I’ve enclosed below a table showing county-level results from 2022, to give you an idea of benchmarks the Democrat needs to hit in November.

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Appendix: Certified county-level results and the Iowa Secretary of State’s reported turnout for the 2022 election. The IA-03 counties are listed in descending order by number of votes cast for a Congressional candidates. Note that the counties with the lowest turnout were Montgomery, Wapello, and Page—all located outside the Des Moines media market where political advertising was concentrated.

County	Nunn votes (%)	Axne votes (%)	turnout
Polk	81,903 (43.0%)	108,401 (57.0%)	57.7%
Dallas	22,814 (51.8%)	21,239 (48.2%)	61.8%
Wapello	6,438 (62.0%)	3,951 (38.0%)	49.0%
Madison	4,984 (66.7%)	2,492 (33.3%)	61.4%
Cass	3,579 (69.1%)	1,602 (30.9%)	55.3%
Page	3,534 (69.3%)	1,562 (30.7%)	49.4%
Guthrie	3,359 (67.3%)	1,632 (32.7%)	60.7%
Appanoose	3,249 (69.7%)	1,412 (30.3%)	53.3%
Union	2,869 (64.0%)	1,611 (36.0%)	54.9%
Greene	2,246 (63.2%)	1,307 (36.8%)	56.3%
Montgomery	2,531 (67.1%)	1,155 (32.9%)	48.4%
Lucas	2,416 (70.8%)	995 (29.2%)	57.4%
Clarke	2,250 (67.7%)	1,075 (32.3%)	55.6%
Adair	2,166 (69.0%)	973 (31.0%)	58.8%
Davis	2,133 (72.4%)	813 (27.6%)	59.5%
Monroe	2,106 (72.6%)	794 (27.4%)	57.0%
Decatur	1,890 (69.4%)	835 (30.6%)	57.0%
Wayne	1,753 (75.1%)	581 (24.9%)	61.8%
Taylor	1,660 (74.2%)	577 (25.8%)	57.1%
Ringgold	1,435 (70.5%)	600 (29.5%)	63.6%
Adams	1,126 (68.8%)	510 (31.2%)	59.5%
total	156,261 (50.3%)	154,117 (49.7%)	55.1% statewide