The last few weeks could hardly have gone worse for the Libertarian Party of Iowa. Republican activists successfully forced the party’s three U.S. House candidates off the ballot, leaving Nicholas Gluba, Marco Battaglia, and Charles Aldrich to run write-in campaigns in the first, third, and fourth Congressional districts.

Meanwhile, a crowded field of presidential candidates imperils Libertarian prospects to retain major-party status in Iowa for the next election cycle.

IOWA SUPREME COURT KEEPS LIBERTARIANS OFF CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT

Gluba, Battaglia, and Aldrich sought to qualify for the ballot through a convention process Libertarians had used in 2018, when the party nominated a full slate of candidates for Iowa’s state and federal offices. No one challenged those candidacies that year. But in August, Republican voters in IA-01, IA-03, and IA-04 filed objections to the Libertarian candidates, on the grounds that the party did not properly conduct its county conventions, and therefore had “no valid organizational structure” for the district or state conventions that nominated the Congressional candidates.

The two Republicans on Iowa’s State Objection Panel, Secretary of State Paul Pate and Attorney General Brenna Bird, upheld the objections at an August 28 meeting, then waited six days to issue their written explanation for striking Libertarians from the ballot. (Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand dissented from that decision.)

Gluba, Aldrich, and Battaglia appealed in Polk County District Court. Following an expedited review and hearing on September 5, Chief Judge Michael Huppert upheld the State Objection Panel’s decision in its entirety.

The Libertarians immediately appealed to the Iowa Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments on September 10 and ruled the next day, so ballots could be certified in time to mail to overseas and military voters.

A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland post will examine the legal arguments in this case and the implications for future elections. The main point is, the Iowa Supreme Court unanimously affirmed the lower court. The per curiam opinion in Gluba et al vs. State Objection Panel held that:

• The Republican objectors had standing to challenge the Libertarian candidacies.
• The State Objection Panel properly considered the Libertarian Party’s convention process as a question related to the “legal sufficiency” of their certificates of nomination.
• The Iowa Code section on county convention delegates’ terms of office requires “strict compliance,” not “substantial compliance.” Libertarians failed to comply when they held county conventions on the same night in January as precinct caucuses.
• Neither state law nor the state panel’s application of that law violated the First Amendment associational rights of the Libertarian Party or its candidates.

Notably, the six participating justices (Justice Thomas Waterman recused) observed,

Gluba, Battaglia, and Aldrich could have qualified for the November general election ballot by filing nomination petitions with signatures like the other political party candidates. They relied instead on an alternative procedure afforded by Iowa law. Having done so, they had to be in compliance with that procedure.

WRITE-IN CANDIDATES TYPICALLY RECEIVE FAR FEWER VOTES

After the Iowa Supreme Court released its Gluba decision, the Libertarian Party of Iowa confirmed in a September 11 news release, “Write-in campaigns are now underway in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th Congressional Districts. Candidates will be providing voters with information on how to participate.”

State party chair Jules Cutler said in that statement, “This decision may have taken our names off the ballot, but it will not silence the voices of liberty in Iowa.”

While Iowans are still free to vote for Libertarians on the write-in line, past experience suggests Gluba, Battaglia, and Aldrich will receive far fewer votes than they would have if Iowans could see their names alongside the Republican and Democratic candidates.

The general election ballot will show only two candidates in IA-01 (Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democrat Christina Bohannan), two candidates in IA-03 (Republican Zach Nunn and Democrat Lanon Baccam), and two candidates in IA-04 (Republican Randy Feenstra and Democrat Ryan Melton).

Here are the results for third-party and write-in Congressional candidates in Iowa’s three most recent election cycles.

2018

Libertarian Troy Hageman received about 3.1 percent of the vote in what was then IA-01 (covering most of the northeast Iowa counties that are now part of IA-02).

Libertarian Mark Strauss received 2.0 percent of the vote in what was then IA-02 (covering most of the southeast Iowa counties that are now part of IA-01). Another 0.6 percent voted for Daniel Clark, who collected enough signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent.

Libertarian Bryan Jack Holder received 2.0 percent of the vote in IA-03. Another 1.5 percent of voters backed one of the three other independent or minor-party candidates on the ballot.

Libertarian Charles Aldrich received 2.0 percent of the vote in IA-04. Another 0.6 percent opted for independent candidate Edward Anderson.

2020

Only Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Abby Finkenauer were on the ballot in IA-01. About 0.1 percent of voters wrote in someone else.

Only Miller-Meeks and Democrat Rita Hart were on the ballot in IA-02. About 0.2 percent of voters wrote in someone else.

Libertarian Holder qualified for the ballot and received about 3.4 percent in IA-03.

Only Feenstra and Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten were on the ballot in IA-04. About 0.2 percent of voters wrote in someone else.

2022

Only Miller-Meeks and Bohannan were on the ballot in IA-01. About 0.1 percent of voters wrote in someone else.

Only Hinson and Democrat Liz Mathis were on the ballot in IA-02. About 0.1 percent of voters wrote in someone else.

Only Nunn and Democrat Cindy Axne were on the ballot in IA-03. About 0.2 percent of voters wrote in someone else.

Holder qualified for the IA-04 ballot as a “Liberty Caucus” candidate and received 2.2 percent of the vote.

It’s clear that when every voter can see a named alternative to the two main parties, many more people—at least ten times as many—choose that option.

Granted, Iowa hasn’t seen an organized write-in campaign for Congress in living memory. The Libertarian Party’s network may help Gluba, Battaglia, and Aldrich improve on the recent numbers for write-in candidates in Iowa.

I’ll be curious to see whether Jody Puffett, who qualified for the IA-02 ballot as an independent, attracts more votes through her low-budget campaign than the Libertarians receive as write-ins in November.

CROWDED PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT MAY KEEP LIBERTARIAN BELOW 2 PERCENT

Cutler told reporters following the District Court hearing on September 5 that she will encourage future Libertarian candidates to qualify for the ballot through the usual process of collecting signatures on nominating petitions, rather than using conventions.

They may not have a convention option in 2026, if the party loses its major-party status.

Under Iowa law, a political organization can qualify as a major party if its nominee for president or for governor receives at least 2 percent of all votes cast in a general election.

Libertarian Rick Stewart cleared that bar in the 2022 governor’s race. To keep major-party status for the next cycle, the Libertarian ticket of presidential nominee Chase Oliver and vice presidential nominee Mike ter Maat need to receive at least 2 percent of this year’s presidential votes.

That would be easier if they were the only alternative to the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris/Tim Walz and the Republican ticket of Donald Trump/JD Vance.

Unfortunately for Libertarians, Iowans will see seven presidential options listed on the ballot. So Oliver will need to receive the lion’s share of votes from Iowans who don’t want to vote for Trump or Harris.

Oliver’s biggest competition will be Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has much higher name recognition and qualified here as a “We The People” candidate. Kennedy endorsed Trump in late August and is now suing to get his name off the ballot in Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina. To withdraw from the Iowa ballot, he needed to send a written notice to the Secretary of State’s office by August 29. He didn’t, because for whatever reason, Kennedy is only trying to end his campaign in the swing states.

The other presidential options for Iowa voters will be the Party for Socialism and Liberation ticket of Claudia De la Cruz and Stephanie H. Cholensky, the Socialist Party USA ticket of William Stodden and Stephanie H. Cholensky, and the independent ticket of Shiva Ayyadurai and Crystal Ellis. The socialist candidates remind me of a classic bit from the Monty Python movie “The Life of Brian.”

I asked the Secretary of State’s office about Ayyadurai, who goes by “Dr. Shiva.” His campaign website indicates he was born in India and emigrated to the U.S. with his family at the age of seven. He is therefore ineligible to serve as president.

The secretary of state’s spokesperson Ashley Hunt told me via email,

Our office accepts paperwork at face value, and in good faith. We do not have jurisdiction to “investigate” a candidate’s birth place, if they really live where they say they live, etc. If a member of the public were to formally submit an objection on this, then the objection panel could discuss. But when we receive any paperwork from a candidate, our office is required to accept candidate paperwork at face value.

No one objected to Dr. Shiva’s candidacy, so he remains on the ballot.

Libertarians first gained major-party status in Iowa following the 2016 presidential election. But their candidates for governor in 2018 and president in 2020 didn’t reach that 2 percent threshold.

Depending on this year’s turnout, Oliver will probably need to gain 30,000 to 34,000 votes to hit that mark. It will be a tall order.

UPDATE: A new Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom indicated that 6 percent of likely voters planned to support Kennedy and 1 percent Oliver. That poll was in the field from September 8 to 11.

Polls often overstate support for third-party candidates, which suggests it will be a big hurdle for Oliver to clear 2 percent.