“Running as a Democrat in Rural Iowa just got so much more hopeful,” Iowa House candidate Tommy Hexter posted on X/Twitter on July 22, shortly after Vice President Kamala Harris secured enough support from delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president. “I am so grateful to Joe Biden for capping off his service to our Country by passing the torch to someone who can truly energize voters here in the Heartland.”
Many Iowa Democrats shared Hexter’s sense of relief and excitement after Biden announced he would stand down as the party’s candidate.
Iowa’s no longer the swing state it was for every presidential election from 1992 through 2012. Few doubt that Donald Trump will have little trouble winning Iowa’s six electoral votes.
Even so, the Harris campaign could help Democrats competing for other offices.
LIFTING A WEIGHT AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET
Trump carried Iowa in 2020 with 53.1 percent of the vote to 44.9 percent for Biden, and his coattails helped Republicans flip two Congressional districts and six Iowa House seats. As bad as that was, Biden was on track to lose by a larger margin this year. The latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom showed Trump leading the incumbent among likely voters by 50 percent to 32 percent.
The same poll found Biden’s approval rating at 28 percent in Iowa, with 67 percent disapproving of his work as president. Independents in the sample disapproved of Biden’s job performance by 69 percent to 24 percent. The president’s favorability numbers weren’t much better: just 33 percent of respondents viewed him favorably, and 66 percent unfavorably (including 50 percent who had a “very unfavorable” view of the president).
That poll was in the field from June 9 to June 14—before Biden debated Trump on live television.
The low numbers for Biden were not a one-off. The Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found the president’s approval rating at 30 percent in March 2023 and 29 percent in February 2024. In fact, Selzer hasn’t measured Biden’s approval above the 35 percent mark in Iowa since June 2021.
I haven’t seen any job approval numbers for Harris in Iowa, or polls testing her against Trump. She may not poll particularly well here. But voters’ opinions about the vice president are probably less “baked in” than their views about Biden, giving Harris an opportunity to improve her standing as voters learn more.
Equally important, at age 59, Harris doesn’t have Biden’s biggest liability: the widespread sense that he’s too old to serve as president for the next four years. Now the tables will be turned, and the 78-year-old Republican nominee may face more questions about his age and fitness.
MORE EXCITEMENT, MORE VOLUNTEERS
It would be hard to overstate how discouraged Iowa Democrats have been in recent months. Among the Democratic respondents in Selzer’s Iowa Poll from June, 61 percent said they felt “exhaustion” thinking about the presidential race, and 59 percent said they felt “dread.” Just 45 percent of Democrats felt optimistic about the race, and only 26 percent said they were excited.
Again, that survey was in the field before the Trump-Biden debate.
Iowa House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst acknowledged the anxiety in an email newsletter and social media post from July 18:
It’s been a tough couple of weeks and it’s time to just call it out. With constant news and social media chaos making everything feel overwhelming and frustrating, I feel completely helpless at times. And I hear from folks everyday that remind me I’m not the only one feeling this way.
But here’s what I know: our work can’t be paralyzed by all the things happening in DC. I’m focused on making positive change in Iowa and holding Kim Reynolds and the GOP accountable. The Iowa House is where we can break the Republican trifecta in our state, but we need your help to make it happen.
So instead of doom scrolling (yes, I am talking to you
), I am taking action and I hope you will join me. […]
Grassroots support for Harris has exploded across the country, with her campaign pulling in a record $81 million on ActBlue during the 24 hours after Biden’s announcement. Tens of thousands of Black women joined an organizing call for Harris on July 21, and tens of thousands of Black men joined one the following day.
I’ve seen many optimistic posts and comments on Iowa Democratic social media feeds, from people living in cities, suburbs, and rural areas. (Hexter is running in Iowa House district 53, covering Poweshiek and Tama counties.)
In a July 22 statement announcing Iowa delegates’ unanimous support for Harris, state party chair Rita Hart said, “We’ve seen a swell of support in the last 24 hours since Vice President Kamala Harris announced her campaign for the White House. Not only has Vice President Harris broken national fundraising numbers—here in Iowa, we’ve had a substantial number of people reach out asking to volunteer.”
It’s too soon to guess how many Democrats will follow through on those offers. We do know volunteers are more important than ever, with national groups spending little on Iowa advertising, and no candidate investing in field operations like those Barack Obama’s campaign built here in 2008 and 2012.
A STRONGER MESSENGER ON KEY ISSUES
Few Iowa Democrats would criticize Biden’s record of accomplishments. I’ve heard many echo State Representative Adam Zabner’s assessment: “Joe Biden has been the best president of my lifetime.”
At the same time, many Democrats lost confidence in Biden to make the case for his re-election. One recent national poll found 65 percent of Democratic respondents wanted the president to withdraw from the race. Similar doubts prompted Christina Bohannan and Sarah Corkery, the party’s candidates in Iowa’s first and second Congressional districts, to call for Biden to step aside earlier this month.
Speaking to me on July 21, Corkery described the president as a “true American hero for putting his country ahead of himself.” In her view, the switch “shows Americans who are the truth-tellers and who is willing to make an adjustment.”
Harris can be a more effective communicator on any number of issues. But above all, she will be a better messenger on abortion rights. Jessica Valenti highlighted the contrast in the latest post from her Substack newsletter, Abortion, Every Day:
Biden’s marked lack of enthusiasm for abortion rights—which sometimes borders on seeming distaste—has been a real problem in his campaign and presidency.
The president only gave abortion rights 30 seconds in his 2023 State of the Union speech, and often avoided saying the word at all. (In his 2024 SOTU, Biden even deviated from his prepared remarks to drop ‘abortion.’) When Biden has talked about abortion, he’s often included caveats about not supporting “abortion on demand.”
Harris, on the other hand, has been the much more abortion-positive public face of the administration’s reproductive rights stance. Over the last few months, the vice president has been on a “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” speaking tour, meeting with everyone from activists and local legislators to doctors and college students.
Unlike Biden, she’s been direct and enthusiastic: A POLITICO comparison of their remarks on Florida’s abortion ban, for example, revealed that while Biden mentioned the word ‘abortion’ twice, Harris used it 15 times—sometimes pairing it with the phrase “Trump abortion bans.”
A nominee who speaks passionately about bodily autonomy can only help Democrats in the first presidential election after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade. The issue should be more salient in Iowa now that our state’s near-total abortion ban will be in effect.
Weeks before Biden stepped aside, Iowa House Democrats were already planning to focus on two topics this year: public education and reproductive rights. In a statement endorsing Harris on July 22, Konfrst noted that the vice president “understands what’s at stake this fall, including the vital issue of reproductive freedom for Americans. She has been a fierce and vocal advocate for the rights of women to make their own healthcare decisions. Just last summer, she was in Iowa to highlight the risks of Iowa Republicans’ extreme abortion ban. With so much at stake, she will be a critical voice for this important issue.”
NO CHAOS AT THE CONVENTION
Some pundits and major donors dreamed of a “mini-primary” this summer and an open competition at the Democratic National Convention. The fantasy never made much sense. Who would step up to challenge the sitting vice president if Biden bowed out?
How would an outsider candidate run a nationwide operation without access to the Biden-Harris campaign funds and staff?
How would a floor fight at the DNC in Chicago benefit the nominee? Turmoil at the 1968 and 1972 conventions undermined the Democratic contenders.
Dozens of Congressional Democrats endorsed Harris within hours of Biden’s announcement. By the end of the day, most governors and senators floated as possible replacement candidates had publicly backed Harris. By the following evening, the vice president had locked up enough DNC delegates—including the entire Iowa delegation—to win the nomination on the first ballot.
Last week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee drew slightly lower ratings than the RNC in 2020. I would guess the switch to Harris will generate far more interest in this year’s Democratic proceedings. The party doesn’t need ugly scenes that would reinforce one of the mainstream media’s favorite narratives: “Democrats in disarray.” An upbeat convention that unites progressives and moderates should help Harris as voters get to know her better.
Dan Guild has studied the impact of party conventions for decades. His research has shown that “Conventions can fundamentally remake the public‘s perception of a candidate.”
If Harris and her running mate do well in Chicago, they could lift all boats for Iowa Democrats. That may not be enough to put Iowa’s electoral votes in play, but it would improve prospects for winning back seats in Congress and the state legislature.
Top photo of Vice President Kamala Harris at Grandview University in Des Moines on March 16, 2023 is by Greg Hauenstein and published with permission.