“It’s time to put Donald J. Trump back in the White House and restore the future of our country for hardworking Americans!” U.S. Senator Joni Ernst posted on social media on the first day of the Republican National Convention.

Iowa’s junior senator kept busy in Milwaukee, participating in several panel discussions or events arranged by conservative groups, and praising Trump in podcast or television interviews. She appeared at some Iowa GOP functions (though she wasn’t one of our state’s RNC delegates) and honored Trump’s campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita.

But Ernst’s status has diminished since the last time her party nominated Trump for the presidency. She was among a small group of politicians passed over as RNC speakers this year, after giving prime-time addresses at both the 2016 and 2020 conventions.

A rift with team Trump could jeopardize Ernst’s hope to move up another notch in Senate leadership after the November election. It could also inspire a MAGA challenger to run in the GOP primary when the senator seeks a third term in 2026.

A ONE-TIME RISING STAR

Less than two years into her Senate tenure, Ernst met with Trump shortly before the 2016 convention. At the time, she was rumored to be on the nominee’s short list for running mates. Although Trump chose Mike Pence to be the vice presidential candidate, he gave Ernst a speaking slot on the first night of the RNC.

It wasn’t a token gesture. Ernst was able to spend more than fifteen minutes on stage, plenty of time to share stories from her life and career, bash Hillary Clinton on foreign policy and national security, and promise Trump would “work tirelessly to keep our nation safe.” She ended up speaking after prime time, but only because the convention ran well behind schedule. It was a prestigious role for a first-term senator.

The 2020 RNC was a different kind of spectacle due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Several GOP senators faced tough re-election campaigns that year, and Ernst was the only one of them given a prime-time slot at the convention. In a four-minute video shown on the third night, she warned Democrats would “essentially ban animal agriculture and eliminate gas-powered cars” and contrasted the path of “Freedom, prosperity, and economic growth, under a Trump-Pence administration” with “the Biden-Harris path, paved by liberal coastal elites and radical environmentalists.”

Ernst’s vision of “An America where farmers are punished, jobs are destroyed, and taxes crush the middle class” didn’t hold up well, in light of the Biden administration’s record of job growth, low unemployment, and massive investments in rural America through the American Rescue Plan, the bipartisan infrastructure law, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Nevertheless, the speech showed Ernst was a valued surrogate for Trump.

Ernst was off the convention stage this year. And no, team Trump didn’t streamline the proceedings: a Washington Post analysis found that “dozens more” speakers were on this year’s RNC schedule compared to 2016 and 2020.

So why didn’t Iowa’s senator make the cut?

POSSIBLE REASONS FOR THE RNC SNUB

The Washington Post identified nine people who spoke at the previous two GOP conventions but not this year. Three are the nominee’s immediate family members (wife Melania Trump and daughters Ivanka and Tiffany). Two are “Trump loyalists” who did legal work for the former president years ago (former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi).

The other four are “GOP establishment figures who have fallen out of Trump’s orbit: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, former House speaker Kevin McCarthy, former vice president Mike Pence,” and Ernst. McConnell was widely booed when he announced the Kentucky delegation’s votes for Trump during the July 15 roll call.

I haven’t seen any public explanation for the RNC snub from Ernst or the Trump campaign. But it’s not hard to guess why Trump—who has often said how much he values loyalty—would feel cooler toward Iowa’s senator now.

The Washington Post counted fourteen RNC speakers this year who voted against accepting the 2020 electoral college votes as members of Congress. Ernst tried to appease Trump fans by repeatedly validating baseless concerns about election integrity. But she did vote to certify Joe Biden’s electoral college win on January 6, 2021. Strike one.

Many convention speakers were early Trump endorsers, including Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird, the only person from our state to deliver remarks in prime time this year. Ernst didn’t endorse any presidential contender ahead of the Iowa caucuses, but was widely perceived to favor Nikki Haley. The day before the caucuses, the senator praised Haley on the NBC program “Meet the Press” and called her a “very dear friend” and “inspiring leader” when introducing the candidate at an event in Ames.

Some Iowa politicians, like U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, came off the fence for Trump shortly after his caucus victory. Ernst didn’t endorse Trump until March 6—the same day Haley ended her presidential campaign. Strike two.

In addition, Ernst let it be known earlier this year that she was upset Trump scuttled a bipartisan deal on border and immigration policy. Brianne Pfannenstiel reported for the Des Moines Register on the senator’s town hall in Boone in late February.

“What was in that bill, we will never have the opportunity to pass, probably in my lifetime,” she told a roomful of constituents. “We will never see changes to the asylum law in the United States when we get the kind of reaction that we did over this border bill, OK? And it’s from the public.” […]

“Even my own colleagues were out there knowingly putting out misinformation about the bill because they wanted to tank it,” she said. “Why? Because we had a former president that even before the bill was written said, ‘It’s garbage. You don’t need it. I have all the authority I need to shut down the border when I become president.’” […]

She also praised U.S. Sen. James Lankford, a Republican from Oklahoma who helped craft the legislation, saying “he got thrown under the bus for trying to do the right thing and write it from a conservative perspective.”

Ernst did vote against the border deal on the Senate floor, after many constituents called her office urging her to do so. But she clearly wasn’t happy the bill went down on Trump’s orders. Strike three.

Throughout Trump’s presidency, Ernst was unfailingly loyal. For example, she repeatedly made excuses for the actions that prompted the first impeachment. In recent months, she has publicly voiced her support for the nominee many times. Here’s one example from June.

That wasn’t enough to get Ernst invited back to the convention stage.

POTENTIAL FALLOUT AFTER NOVEMBER

Who cares whether an Iowa politician spoke at the RNC? Party conventions no longer draw as many viewers as they once did. And unlike 2020, when Ernst was in a tight race against a Democratic challenger, the senator isn’t on the ballot this year.

The problem is that more than ever, the GOP in Iowa and nationally serves one man. We saw it in October 2023, when Trump single-handedly ended Tom Emmer’s bid to become House speaker, hours after the GOP conference had nominated Emmer for that job. We saw it again in February, when Senate Republicans voted down the border deal because of Trump.

Ernst landed the fifth-ranking Senate leadership position following the 2018 elections and moved up to the fourth-ranking spot after the 2022 cycle. Later this year, she plans to ask her colleagues to choose her as Senate Republican Conference chair, the third-ranking position in the caucus.

Speaking to Politico’s Burgess Everett in March, Ernst said, “Republicans want to see someone that doesn’t just get told how to vote, but someone that can be an independent thinker and provide a voice to reason and to truth … I’m ready to take that on.”

To put it mildly, Trump’s GOP doesn’t reward independent thinkers.

Ernst’s competition for the number 3 spot is Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas. Although he voted to certify the 2020 electoral college count, he has since gotten back into Trump’s good graces. He endorsed the former president in early January and was among the politicians Trump considered as a possible running mate. Cotton has also opposed foreign aid packages to Ukraine, which (contrary to Ernst’s assertions) seems closer to Trump’s position.

According to the Washington Post, Cotton is one of just seven people—including the nominee and his sons Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump—who have spoken at all of the last three Republican National Conventions.

Everett described the coming battle between Ernst and Cotton as a “blockbuster” race for the Senate GOP’s third-ranking position. But with all respect to an excellent Congressional reporter, the race could be over quickly if Trump tells Senate Republicans that Cotton’s his guy. Especially if Trump is the president-elect when senators are weighing their options.

Looking beyond this year, Ernst has confirmed she plans to run for re-election in 2026. She would be heavily favored in a Republican primary; the latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom indicated that 70 percent of Republicans approve of her work, while just 19 percent disapprove. Moreover, Senator Chuck Grassley defeated State Senator Jim Carlin (a Trumpian election denier) in the 2022 GOP primary by 73.3 percent to 26.5 percent.

But what if Ernst faced a better-known and better-funded opponent? What if that person had Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement”?

Matt Whitaker comes to mind. He did poorly in his 2014 campaign for Senate, finishing fourth in the five-way primary that Ernst won. He later held senior Justice Department positions during the Trump administration, then published a 2020 book purporting to tell the “Inside Story of How the Justice Department Tried to Subvert President Trump.”

Whitaker now co-chairs one initiative of the America First Policy Institute, a group formed in 2021 to promote Trump’s policies. His most recent statement on behalf of that organization praised a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that “delivered justice for hundreds of January 6 protestors who the Biden Administration’s Justice Department (DOJ) vindictively targeted.”

I have no idea whether Whitaker wants to run for Senate again. But he could raise money and would have the inside track on a Trump endorsement. More often than not, candidates the former president backed have won Republican primaries around the country.

Even without Trump’s support, under-funded challengers did surprisingly well in this year’s GOP primaries to represent Iowa’s first and fourth Congressional districts. Many Iowa Republican voters distrust the establishment and may be open to an alternative to Ernst.

Perhaps the senator will win back Trump’s favor before her next campaign. She’s giving it her best effort, as you can see any time she’s on national television. I wouldn’t bet on Trump letting bygones be bygones, though.

UPDATE: A reader flagged this post from February by Donald Trump, Jr., which reinforces my view that Whitaker would be well-positioned in a primary against Ernst.

---

Appendix: Senator Joni Ernst’s speech at the Republican National Convention on July 18, 2016

Senator Joni Ernst’s video prepared for the Republican National Convention on August 26, 2020