UPDATE: Charlie McConkey became the sixteenth House Democrat to confirm he won’t seek another term. Original post follows.
Nearly 40 percent of the Democrats who now serve in the Iowa House have confirmed they won’t seek re-election this year, and several long-serving incumbents have yet to clarify their plans.
The exodus involves not only lawmakers of retirement age, like State Representatives Marti Anderson and Bruce Hunter, but also some who have decades left in their working lives, like State Representatives Ras Smith, Chris Hall, and Kirsten Running-Marquardt, the latest to announce she won’t continue serving in the legislature.
The unusually high turnover may reflect some pent-up demand; older lawmakers who might have retired a few years ago hung on in light of realistic hope that their party could regain control of the chamber in the 2018 or 2020 elections. That prospect seems remote now, with Republicans enjoying a 60-40 majority and the new political map creating fewer than ten strong pickup opportunities for House Democrats.
WHO’S LEAVING
Five House Democrats opted to run for other offices in 2022:
- Liz Bennett (announced last June that she will run for an open Iowa Senate seat)
- Christina Bohannan (launched a Congressional campaign last August)
- Molly Donahue (announced her campaign for an open Iowa Senate Seat in October)
- Cindy Winckler (confirmed in November she will run for an open Iowa Senate seat)
- Kirsten Running-Marquardt (announced on February 18 she’s running for Linn County supervisor)
At least ten House Democrats are not seeking any elected office this year. In the order they confirmed their retirement plans, they are Bruce Hunter, Marti Anderson, Mary Mascher, Jo Oldson, Todd Prichard, Mary Wolfe, Kristin Sunde, Dave Williams, Ras Smith and Chris Hall, the latest to announce on February 15. UPDATE: Charlie McConkey is also retiring, he announced on February 24.
Approximately a dozen House Democrats have not publicly announced whether they plan to seek another term. If they choose to retire, we’ll find out soon, since the filing deadline for Iowa candidates seeking state or federal offices is Friday, March 18.
IMPACT ON THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE HOUSE
As a general rule, it’s easier to win an open seat held by the other party than to beat an incumbent lawmaker. However, not all open seats are realistic targets for the other party. Most of the retiring Democrats represent solid blue territory. However, at least two of these districts could be competitive, and Republicans will be favored to win two of the open seats.
For all of the districts discussed below, recent election results come from the map Josh Hughes created in Dave’s Redistricting App.
EASY DEMOCRATIC HOLDS (11)
House district 30 on the south side of Des Moines (Bruce Hunter)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 59.5 percent, Donald Trump 38.3 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 63.5 percent, Kim Reynolds 34.1 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: Megan Srinivas, Eddie Mauro
House district 31 covering much of West Des Moines (Kristin Sunde)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 57.9 percent, Donald Trump 40.2 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 55.6 percent, Kim Reynolds 42.8 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: none that I know of
House district 35 on the northwest side of Des Moines
Marti Anderson’s home is in the new House district 34, where State Representative Ako Abdul-Samad is seeking re-election. But most of the territory Anderson has represented since 2013 is in the new House district 35.
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 68.6 percent, Donald Trump 29.2 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 69.7 percent, Kim Reynolds 28.1 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: Sean Bagniewski
House district 36 covering parts of the west side and south side of Des Moines (Jo Oldson)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 75.0 percent, Donald Trump 22.8 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 76.1 percent, Kim Reynolds 22.0 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: Austin Baeth, Jaylen Cavil, Chris Disbro, Shannon Henson
House district 62 covering part of Waterloo
The new map placed Ras Smith and fellow Iowa House Democrat Timi Brown-Powers in House district 61. However, most of the territory Smith has represented since 2017 lies in the new House district 62.
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 65.3 percent, Donald Trump 32.6 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 67.5 percent, Kim Reynolds 30.1 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: None that I know of UPDATE: Jerome Amos Jr has announced his candidacy.
House district 74 covering parts of Cedar Rapids and Marion (Molly Donahue)
This seat won’t be open, because State Representative Eric Gjerde also lives in the district and will seek re-election. He shouldn’t have much trouble.
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 58.5 percent, Donald Trump 38.9 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 56.9 percent, Kim Reynolds 40.0 percent
House district 77 covering part of Cedar Rapids (Kirsten Running-Marquardt)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 58.3 percent, Donald Trump 39.3 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 60.8 percent, Kim Reynolds 35.7 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: none that I know of CORRECTION: Jeff Cooling is running here.
House district 78 covering part of Cedar Rapids (Liz Bennett)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 67.6 percent, Donald Trump 29.7 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 66.4 percent, Kim Reynolds 30.5 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: Sami Scheetz
House district 89 covering part of Iowa City (Mary Mascher)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 79.1 percent, Donald Trump 18.6 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 80.4 percent, Kim Reynolds 17.6 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: Elinor Levin, Tony Currin, Dylan Harvey UPDATE: Harvey is no longer running here.
House district 90 covering part of Iowa City (Christina Bohannan)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 78.9 percent, Donald Trump 19.2 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 78.8 percent, Kim Reynolds 19.5 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: Andrew Dunn, Adam Zabner
House district 98 covering part of Davenport (Cindy Winckler)
This seat isn’t open, because House Democrat Monica Kurth also lives here and is seeking re-election.
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 52.7 percent, Donald Trump 44.9 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 56.6 percent, Kim Reynolds 41.1 percent
COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS (2)
House district 1 covering part of Sioux City (Chris Hall)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 53.1 percent, Donald Trump 44.9 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 54.2 percent, Kim Reynolds 43.3 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: none that I know of
House district 69 covering the city of Clinton and some other areas in Clinton County (Mary Wolfe)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 47.5 percent, Donald Trump 50.3 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 53.3 percent, Kim Reynolds 44.8 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: none that I know of
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PICK-UPS (2)
House district 58 covering Chickasaw County, most of Floyd County, and much of Bremer County outside the city of Waverly (Todd Prichard)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 36.1 percent, Donald Trump 62.4 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 41.0 percent, Kim Reynolds 56.8 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: none that I know of
House district 76 covering parts of Black Hawk, Tama, and Benton counties (Dave Williams)
2020 presidential election: Joe Biden 42.1 percent, Donald Trump 56.0 percent
2018 governor’s race: Fred Hubbell 43.7 percent, Kim Reynolds 54.4 percent
Declared Democratic candidates: none that I know of CORRECTION: Kate Wyatt is running in this district
Top photo of the Iowa House Democrats posted on Chris Hall’s Twitter feed on February 17. This picture was taken sometime during 2019 or 2020, as it contains a few legislators who lost their 2020 re-election bids.