HINSON OUTPOLLED BLUM IN HER DISTRICT

Hinson just won a second term in Iowa House district 67, covering a few Cedar Rapids precincts and parts of the suburbs.

Like suburbs around the country, this area has been trending toward Democrats. Residents of House district 67 favored Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama by 49.5 percent to 49.2 percent in 2012, when Obama won the state by 52 percent to 46 percent. But Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the same precincts in 2016 (47.2 percent to 45.7 percent for Donald Trump), even as Iowa went to Trump by nearly 10 points.

Seeking an open seat in 2016, Hinson won her first race comfortably, 11,248 votes to 6,749 (62.5 percent to 37.5 percent).

Going into the latest election, Republicans had a slight voter registration edge in House district 67, while Democrats had returned more absentee ballots. Uncharacteristically for an Iowa legislative campaign, the Democratic Party spent more on behalf of challenger Eric Gjerde than the GOP did for Hinson.

Hinson won a second term, but not by much. Using precinct-level data accessed through Linn County’s election website, I created this table showing results for the Congressional and state House races in all precincts Hinson represents.

Across the board, Hinson’s vote share was 5 to 8 points higher than Blum’s. The red boxes highlight that Blum carried only three of the thirteen precincts in House district 67, while Hinson carried nine. (Note: percentages for the Congressional race don’t add up to 100, because a Libertarian was also on the ballot.)

Frankly, I expected Hinson to outpoll Blum by more in this district, where she is best known. Blum’s prickly temperament and ethics problems made him an exceptionally weak incumbent.

That said, you can see why many Republicans have encouraged Hinson to run for Congress. If she can improve on Blum’s showing by about 5 points everywhere voters are familiar with her past work in television news, that would make up the GOP’s 2018 deficit district-wide.

SIZING UP A FINKENAUER/HINSON RACE

It’s way too early to guess what the political environment will look like in the fall of 2020, and many northeast Iowa voters shifted toward Republicans in federal and state legislative races in 2016. So I concur with the toss-up rating Cook Political and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have given IA-01. With the wind at Democrats’ backs nationally, a voter registration advantage for her party, and an opponent with a lot of baggage, Finkenauer won by only a 5-point margin.

On the other hand, Finkenauer could enter the next campaign in a stronger position. She should be able to run up the score in her home county if she doesn’t face a Republican from Dubuque, where Blum lived for decades.

Last year, Republicans portrayed “Absent Abby” as too young and inexperienced for the job. She will be better known after holding numerous official events around the district as a member of Congress. Blum cast his first Congressional vote against John Boehner for speaker, resulting in insignificant committee assignments and few legislative accomplishments. In contrast, Finkenauer landed a seat on the U.S. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, a good position to deliver tangible benefits to her constituents. Within two weeks of being sworn in, she got her first bill through the House, a bipartisan measure promoting investment in rural small businesses.

One key to Finkenauer’s victory in November was keeping Blum’s margin down in the rural counties. As an incumbent, she should be able to continue to build relationships with voters in smaller communities.

While Hinson would enter a Congressional race with a higher profile than most challengers, her short legislative career provides a lot of fodder for attack ads. A few examples (not an exhaustive list):

Hinson wasn’t eager to defend her voting record during the 2018 campaign. The League of Women Voters hosted candidate forums for most Linn County races, but not House district 67. Gjerde accepted the group’s invitation; Hinson did not agree to participate. As a Congressional candidate, she won’t be able to avoid tough questions about her legislative work.

Any comments about the IA-01 race are welcome in this thread.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that Hinson voted for the 2017 omnibus gun bill, which was so extreme that two Iowa House Republicans opposed it. If Hinson runs she can expect substantial support from the National Rifle Association and other pro-gun groups.

Top image: On the left, Republican State Representative Ashley Hinson. On the right, Democratic U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer.