Thirteenth in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2018 state and federal elections.

Immediately after the November election, it was obvious turnout in Iowa was unusually high for a non-presidential year. Now that the Secretary of State’s office has published the statewide statistical report, we can get a closer look at which demographic groups were most engaged. Let’s dive in:

MUCH HIGHER TURNOUT AMONG DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS

Iowans of all political persuasions turned out in large numbers for the November election, but the sharpest increase was among Democrats and no-party voters. Democratic turnout was approximately 20 percent higher last year than for the 2010 and 2014 midterms and surpassed the level seen in 2002, when Governor Tom Vilsack and Senator Tom Harkin won re-election by comfortable margins.

Iowans affiliated with no party cast far more ballots in November than in any non-presidential election for decades.

Antipathy to President Barack Obama and other factors fueled GOP landslides in 2010 and 2014. So it’s not surprising that Republican turnout was only slightly higher in 2018 than in the last two midterms. Had Iowa Republican enthusiasm been at the same level in November as four or eight years ago, Fred Hubbell would be the governor-elect. He finished only about 36,000 votes behind Governor Kim Reynolds.

All numbers in this table come from statewide statistical reports available on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.

Turnout by party in Iowa midterms
Party registration	2002	2006	2010	2014	2018
Democrats registered	537,425	619,248	699,963	661,878	677,668
Democrats voting	353,584	384,983	395,312	374,990	458,902
Democratic turnout	65.8%	62.2%	56.5%	56.7%	67.7%
GOP registered	589,517	595,464	648,646	663,177	688,246
GOP voting	412,863	386,382	447,445	452,283	492,802
GOP turnout	70.0%	64.9%	69.0%	68.2%	71.6%
no-party registered	685,329	766,752	773,282	807,088	803,429
no-party voting	254,753	273,094	281,546	305,108	368,772
no-party turnout	37.2%	35.6%	36.5%	37.8%	45.9%
total registered	1,812,271	1,981,464	2,124,116	2,138,683	2,187,097
total voting	1,021,200	1,044,459	1,125,386	1,135,138	1,329,930
total turnout	56.3%	52.7%	53.0%	53.1%	60.8%

DESPITE HIGHER YOUTH TURNOUT, MOST VOTERS OVER 50

Iowans of all ages participated in the 2018 election at higher rates than in other recent midterms. The sharpest increases were among the youngest eligible voters, which surely helped Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer defeat two Republican members of Congress. Greater involvement by voters under 35 was probably an important factor in keeping the governor’s race relatively close as well.

However, older Iowans still vastly outnumber the millennials in the electorate. Last year, voters age 50 or over cast nearly three-fifths of the general election ballots (59.6 percent). Those under 35 cast less than one-fifth of the ballots (18.9 percent). That’s a slight shift from 2014, when about 64 percent of Iowans who voted were at least 50 years old, and about one-sixth were under 35.

For the foreseeable future, successful statewide candidates in Iowa will need to appeal to an older demographic.

Turnout by age group in Iowa midterms
Age group	2002	2006	2010	2014	2018
18-24 registered	221,763	239,189	248,766	237,397	248,411
18-24 voting	48,811	51,776	59,861	56,020	93,808
18-24 turnout	22.0%	21.7%	24.1%	23.6%	37.8%
25-34 registered	282,451	334,664	388,149	389,222	387,283
25-34 voting	98,724	101,015	199,510	118,679	158,049
25-34 turnout	35.0%	30.2%	30.8%	30.5%	40.8%
35-49 registered	519,321	531,808	514,112	488,332	495,720
35-49 voting	299,644	275,648	257,406	234,020	286,080
35-49 turnout	57.7%	51.8%	50.1%	47.9%	57.7%
50-64 registered	409,211	485,029	550,169	564,865	545,745
50-64 voting	296,631	334,672	378,349	379,881	391,837
50-64 turnout	72.5%	69.0%	68.8%	67.3%	71.8%
Over 65 registered	379,520	390,771	422,920	458,866	509,937
Over 65 voting	277,390	281,346	310,259	346,538	400,156
Over 65 turnout	73.1%	72.0%	73.4%	75.5%	78.5%
total registered	1,812,271	1,981,464	2,124,116	2,138,683	2,187,097
total voting	1,021,200	1,044,459	1,125,386	1,135,138	1,329,930
total turnout	56.3%	52.7%	53.0%	53.1%	60.8%

NO SIGNS OF A GENDER GAP IN TURNOUT

Iowans elected a woman governor, two women to the U.S. House, and record numbers of women to the state legislature in 2018, so I was eager to see the gender breakdown of last year’s midterm participants.

The new numbers don’t suggest that Iowa women were significantly more engaged in the latest election than men. Turnout increased by roughly the same amount for both groups. (Note: the Iowa Secretary of State’s office does not record data about non-binary or gender-nonconforming voters.)

Opinion polls from around the country suggests that women, especially suburban women, were more inclined to support Democratic candidates in 2018 than in past midterms. It appears that Axne and the five Democrats who won Republican-held Iowa House seats in the Des Moines suburbs benefited from a growing gender gap in political preferences, not from disparate levels of interest in voting among men and women.

Turnout by gender in Iowa midterms
Gender	2002	2006	2010	2014	2018
Women registered	962,028	1,049,370	1,116,622	1,119,837	1,140,506
Women voting	541,145	552,260	587,561	593,649	697,349
Female turnout	56.3%	52.6%	52.6%	53.0%	61.1%
Men registered	850,172	932,050	1,007,485	1,018,827	1,046,586
Men voting	480,036	492,198	537,824	541,489	632,581
Male turnout	56.5%	52.8%	53.4%	53.2%	60.4%
total registered	1,812,271	1,981,464	2,124,116	2,138,683	2,187,097
total voting	1,021,200	1,044,459	1,125,386	1,135,138	1,329,930
total turnout	56.3%	52.7%	53.0%	53.1%	60.8%

Any comments about turnout in 2018 are welcome in this thread.

Appendix: All three pages of the statewide statistical report on Iowa’s 2018 general election