Continuing a Bleeding Heartland tradition, I encourage readers to post their general election predictions as comments in this thread before 7 am on Tuesday, November 6. Predictions submitted by e-mail or posted on social media will not be considered. Please contact me if you want to participate and need to create a Bleeding Heartland account.
Anyone can enter, whether you now live or have ever lived in Iowa. You can change your mind, as long as you post your revised predictions as an additional comment in this thread before the Tuesday morning deadline.
No money’s at stake, just bragging rights like those most recently claimed by Bleeding Heartland user rf for 2016 general election predictions and David Osterberg for having the best guesses about this year’s primary elections.
Libertarian and/or independent candidates are on the ballot for many races, so the percentages of the vote for Democratic and Republican nominees need not add up to 100. This isn’t “The Price is Right”; the winning answers will be closest to the final results, whether they were a little high or low. Even if you have no idea, please try to take a guess on every question. You can’t win if you don’t play.
1. How many Iowans will cast ballots in the 2018 general election? For reference, 1,125,386 Iowans voted in the 2010 general election, and 1,135,138 Iowans voted in the 2014 general election.
2. What percentage of the vote will candidates for governor Kim Reynolds and Fred Hubbell receive? (Keep in mind that Libertarian Jake Porter and independent Gary Siegwarth will also appear on the ballot.)
3. What percentage of the vote will Rod Blum and Abby Finkenauer receive in Iowa’s first Congressional district? (Libertarian Troy Hageman will also appear on the ballot.)
4. What percentage of the vote will Dave Loebsack and Christopher Peters receive in IA-02? (Libertarian Mark David Strauss and independent Daniel Clark will also appear on the ballot.)
5. What percentage of the vote will David Young and Cindy Axne receive in IA-03? (Libertarian Bryan Jack Holder and three other candidates will also appear on the ballot.)
6. What percentage of the vote will Steve King and J.D. Scholten receive in IA-04? (Libertarian Charles Aldrich and independent Edward Peterson will also appear on the ballot.)
7. What percentage of the vote will Paul Pate and Deidre DeJear receive in the Iowa secretary of state race? (Libertarian Jules Ofenbakh will also appear on the ballot.)
8. What percentage of the vote will Tom Miller and Marco Battaglia (Libertarian) receive in the Iowa attorney general race? (Republicans are not fielding a candidate.)
9. What percentage of the vote will Mike Naig and Tim Gannon receive in the Iowa secretary of agriculture race? (Libertarian Rick Stewart will also appear on the ballot.)
10. What percentage of the vote will Mary Mosiman and Rob Sand receive in the Iowa state auditor race? (Libertarian Fred Perryman will also appear on the ballot.)
11. What percentage of the vote will Michael Fitzgerald and Jeremy Davis receive in the state treasurer race? (Libertarian Timothy Hird will also appear on the ballot.)
12. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans win in the Iowa House next Tuesday? Currently there are 59 Republicans and 41 Democrats. All 100 state House seats are on the ballot.
13. How many seats will the Democrats and Republicans hold in the Iowa Senate after this election? Currently there are 29 Republicans, 20 Democrats, and one independent who is retiring. Only half of the state Senate seats are on the ballot.
14. Which Congressional race in Iowa will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
15. Which Iowa House or Senate race will be the closest (in terms of percentage of vote difference between winner and loser)?
16. Nationally, which U.S. Senate race will be decided by the narrowest margin (in terms of percentage of the vote difference, not raw votes)?
17. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. House starting January 2019? (435 total) Currently there are 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and seven vacant seats.
18. How many Democrats and Republicans will be in the U.S. Senate starting January 2019? (100 total) For this question, I am counting independents who caucus with Democrats as Democrats. Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats, including the two independents who caucus with them.
23 Comments
Scoring
How is it scored? Is there a winner for each category or overall?
Is it total amount off by rep% plus total amount off by dem% and then lowest score wins?
tylerhiggs Fri 2 Nov 8:40 PM
just one overall winner
But I do list who had the best guess, second-best, and third-best guess on every question. At the end I tally up who was close on the most questions. Almost every time there has been a clear winner. See results from the last general election contest and this year’s primary.
desmoinesdem Sat 3 Nov 7:45 AM
2018 General Elections Contest
Number of Iowans who cast ballots: 1, 573, 484. Percentages for Governor- Kim R: 40%, Fred H: 43%, Jake P: 4%, & Gary S: 2%. Congressional District 1 Percentages- Rod B: 40%, Abby F: 42%, & Troy H: 3%. Congressional District 2 Percentages- Dave L: 45%, Chris P: 41%, Mark David: 3%, & Daniel C: 1%. Congressional District 3 Percentages- David Young: 40%, Cindy Axne: 43%, Brian Holder: 4%, the other 3 contenders will combine a total of 1%. Congressional District 4 Percentages- JD Scholten: 42%, Steve King:41%, Charles A: 2%, & Edward P: 1%. Secretary of State Percentages- Paul Pate: 40%, Deidre DeJear: 42%, & Jules O: 2%. Iowa Attorney General Percentages- Tom Miller: 43% & Marco B: 38%. Secretary of Agriculture Percentages- Mike Naig: 41%, Tim Gannon: 42%, & Rick Stewart: 2%. State Auditor Percentages- Mary M: 41%, Rob Sand: 43%, & Fred P: 1%. State Treasurer Percentages- Mike F: 43%, Jeremy Davis: 41%, & Tim H: 2%. Iowa Democratic House Seats Total: 57. Iowa Republican House Seats Total: 43. Iowa Democratic Senate Seats Total: 27. Iowa Republican Senate Seats Total: 23. Closest Congressional Race: Congressional District 3. US Democratic House Seats Total: 286. US Republican House Seats Total: 149. US Democratic Senate Seats Total: 65. US Republican Senate Seats Total: 35. BUT there will be a catch: according to a rumor, all states will turn Blue EXCEPT Iowa until shortly after the beginning of the year (sometime close to Spring 2019) FYI: it’s just a rumor. Here shortly there will be a mass exodus of Republicans. Which then Democrats will win all over the US until the 2020 elections. After that, there’s a chance that all US states will be Red (not because of election hacking, but because of people tired of Democrats winning).
JenDem30 Fri 2 Nov 10:08 PM
thank you for entering!
A lot of your guesses add up to way below 100 percent for the various races. If you want to amend your prediction, you can always post another comment before Tuesday morning.
desmoinesdem Sat 3 Nov 7:47 AM
2018
1. 1,207,386
2. 48% Hubbell, 47% Reynolds, 4% Porter, 1% Siegwarth
3. 55% Finkenauer 43% Blum 2% Hageman
4. 53% Loebsack 42% Peters 3% Strauss 2% Clark
5. 47% Axne 45% Young 4% Holder 4% others
6. 50% King 47% Scholten 2% Aldrich 1% Peterson
7. 51% DeJear 49% Pate
8. 75% Miller 25% Battaglia
9. 50.5% Naig 49.5% Gannon
10. 53% Sand 47% Moisman
11. 63% Fitzgerald 37% Davis
12. 54 democrats 46 republicans
13. 27 republican 23 Democrats
14. 3rd congressional district
15. Senate District 41
16. Florida senate
17. 240 democrats, 195 republicans
18. 54 republicans, 46 democrats
southiowamoderate Sat 3 Nov 1:22 AM
We're close
I’m surprised how close we are! I pretty much guessed on the Fitzgerald race. It’s hard to guess how much of the undervote will go to Marco. I’m intrigued by your federal predictions. You seem to be more optimistic about the House than I am and more pessimistic about the Senate. It will be fun to see who is closer!
tylerhiggs Sat 3 Nov 3:50 PM
We certainly are close
The vast majority of the GOP ticket swung through my hometown this past week and Jeremy Davis was there to speak. If I get’s more than 40% I will be shocked. Definition of an empty shirt. I’m very bullish about the house- not so much on the senate, based on the map and the polls that have come out.
southiowamoderate Mon 5 Nov 12:29 AM
I will only do the House races and the Senate
1.3071,101
45% Hubbell, 50% Reynolds, 4% Porter, 1% Siegwarth
3. 53% Finkenauer 45% Blum 2% Hageman
4. 55% Loebsack 44% Peters 3% Strauss 2% Clark
5. 48% Axne 47% Young 2% Holder 3% others
6. 52% King 47% Scholten 1% Aldrich 1% Peterson
16, Missouri Senate
17. 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans
18. 51 GOP, 49 Democrats
Dan Guild Sat 3 Nov 6:26 AM
Here we go...
I was going to wait until Monday and play around with numbers, but here we go…
1. 1,159,943
2. 49.15% Hubbell – 44.35% Reynolds
3. 50.49% Finkenauer – 46.01% Blum
4. 53.58% Loebsack – 42.92% Peters
5. 45.97% Axne – 45.70% Young
6. 55.81% King – 39.69% Scholten
7. 52.15% DeJear – 47.85% Pate
8. 83% Miller – 17% Marco
9. 49.35% Naig – 44.15% Gannon
10. 56% DeJear – 44% Pate
11. 58.15% Fitzgerald – 35.35% Davis
12. Iowa House: 52 Republicans – 48 Democrats.
13. Iowa Senate: 27 Republicans – 23 Democrats (Dems pick up 4, but reps steal 1 and gain the I seat…I think this would be more promising if ALL the seats were up!)
14. IA-3, for sure.
15. HD44. If that goes blue, I think the Dems could take the House.
16. Claire McCaskill.
17. 229 Dem – 206 Rep
18. 51 Rep – 49 Dem, but if I could say 51.5-48.5 to hedge my bets, I would.
tylerhiggs Sat 3 Nov 3:09 PM
Correction
#10 is supposed to reflect Rob Sand’s victory. Deidre DeJear’s victory is already reflected. In #7. The numbers are good. It’s just the names in #10 that need updated.
tylerhiggs Sat 3 Nov 10:29 PM
Cant edit...seeing if this is easier to read than my last comment. Sorry.
1. 1,159,943
2. 49.15% Hubbell – 44.35% Reynolds
3. 50.49% Finkenauer – 46.01% Blum
4. 53.58% Loebsack – 42.92% Peters
5. 45.97% Axne – 45.70% Young
6. 55.81% King – 39.69% Scholten
7. 52.15% DeJear – 47.85% Pate
8. 83% Miller – 17% Marco
9. 49.35% Naig – 44.15% Gannon
10. 56% DeJear – 44% Pate
11. 58.15% Fitzgerald – 35.35% Davis
12. Iowa House: 52 Republicans – 48 Democrats.
13. Iowa Senate: 27 Republicans – 23 Democrats (Dems pick up 4, but reps steal 1 and gain the I seat…I think this would be more promising if ALL the seats were up!)
14. IA-3, for sure.
15. HD44. If that goes blue, I think the Dems could take the House.
16. Claire McCaskill.
17. 229 Dem – 206 Rep
18. 51 Rep – 49 Dem, but if I could say 51.5-48.5 to hedge my bets, I would.
tylerhiggs Sat 3 Nov 3:10 PM
comments can't be edited here
That’s why I require predictions to be posted on the website, not on social media where they could be revised after the election.
It’s no problem, I always consider the last predictions someone posts to be their final contest entry.
desmoinesdem Sun 4 Nov 7:40 AM
Midterm Predictions
1. 1,324,410
2. Hubbell 47.9-46.1
3. Finkenauer 52-43
4. Loebsack 54-39
5. Axne 46.8 -45.2
6. King 49-44 (argh.)
7. Pate 48.5-47.9
8. Miller 68-30
9. Gannon 49-48
10. Sand 52-46
11. Iowa House — 50-50
12 Iowa Sen. Repub 26-23
13. Closest, Iowa: IA Sen 41
14. Closest US Sen: Arizona
15. US House: Dem 232-203
16. US Sen. 50-50
zeitgeist Sat 3 Nov 4:47 PM
Oops, I missed two questions (let me know if you need me to re-post a single comlete set)
Treasurer — Fitzgerald 61-37
Closest congressional race in Iowa — IA03.
zeitgeist Sat 3 Nov 6:30 PM
you don't need to post a new comment
with all the predictions in one place. I will just refer to the comments you’ve already posted. Thanks!
desmoinesdem Sun 4 Nov 7:57 AM
Pessimistic predictions
Since I prevailed in 2016, I guess I better defend my title. Sadly, not feeling too optimistic at this moment.
1. 1,180,000
2. Reynolds 49%, Hubbell 47%.
3. Finkenauer 51%, Blum 48%.
4. Loebsack 54%, Peters 43%.
5. Young 49%, Axne 48%.
6. King 56%, Scholten 42%.
7. Pate 50%, DeJear 49%.
8. Miller 73%, Battaglia 23%.
9. Naig 53%, Gannon 45%.
10. Mosiman 51%, Sand 45%.
11. Fitzgerald 57%, Davis 39%.
12. R 56, D 44.
13. R 28, D 22.
14. IA-3
15. HD38
16. Missouri
17. D 219, R 216
18. R 55, D 45
rf Mon 5 Nov 9:24 AM
Election Contest
1. 1,389,026
2. Hubbell 49.1% Reynolds 46.8%
3. Abby 53.2% Blum 46.8%
4. Loebsack 54.1% Peters 44.1%
5. Cindy 51.1% Young 48.9%
6. King 53.7% JD 46.8%
7. Pate 52.8% Deirdre 47.7%
8. Miller 71% Bat 27%
9. Naig 52.9% Gannon 47.2%
10. Sand 52% Mosiman 47.5%
11. Fitz 59% Davis 39%
12 Ds 45 Rs 55
13. Ds 22 Rs 28
14. 03 District
15. HD 42
16. MO
17. D225 R 210
18. R 53-47
rockm Mon 5 Nov 5:05 PM
hope i'm right!
1. 1,235,467
2. 49-45 Hubbell
3. 52-44 Finkenauer
4. 58-40 Loebsack
5. 48-45 Axne
6. 49.5-44 King 🙁
7. 48-46 DeJear
8. 76-24 Miller
9. 48-48 Gannon (by a hair)
10. 51-46 Sand
11. 55-43 Fitzgerald
12. 53-47 Republican Control
13. 28-22 Republican Control
14. IA-03
15. SD-41
16. Nevada
17. 231-204 Democratic Control
18. 51-49 Republican Control
JoshHughesIA Mon 5 Nov 9:35 PM
Predictions
1. 1,190,000
2. Hubbell 50 Reynolds 46
3. Finkenauer 53 Blum 45
4. Loebsack 56 Peters 41
5. Axne 49 Young 47
6. Steve King 50 J.D. Scholten 48
7. Pate 51 DeJear 48
8. Tom Miller 79 Battaglia 21
9. Mike Naig 50 Tim Gannon 49
10. Rob Sand 51 Mary Mosiman 48
11. Michael Fitzgerald 60 Jeremy Davis 38
12. 52 Democrats 48 Republican
13. 27 Republican 23 Democrats
14. Third District
15. Senate District 41
16. Nevada
17. Democrats 230 Republicans 205
18. Democrats 50 Republicans 50
gellerbach Mon 5 Nov 11:14 PM
going with my optimistic scenario
despite the fact that the 2016 election turned out far worse than my doomsday predictions.
1. Turnout: 1,180,000
2. Hubbell 49 percent, Reynolds 48 percent
3. Finkenauer 52 percent, Blum 46 percent
4. Loebsack 57 percent, Peters 43 percent
5. This was the toughest one for me. Axne 49 percent, Young 47 percent
6. King 50 percent, Scholten 46 percent (would love to be wrong)
7. Pate 54 percent, DeJear 46 percent
8. Miller 72 percent, Battaglia 28 percent
9. Naig 51 percent, Gannon 48 percent
10. Sand 52 percent, Mosiman 48 percent
11. Fitzgerald 58 percent, Davis 42 percent
12. 55 Republicans, 45 Democrats
13. 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats
14. IA-03
15. House district 55
16. Arizona
17. 229 Democrats, 206 Republicans
18. 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats
desmoinesdem Tue 6 Nov 2:08 AM
2018 Gen'l Election
1 1,160,000
2 Hubbell 53, Reynolds 45
3 Finkenauer 55, Blum 45
4 Loebsack 55, Peters 45
5 Axne 53, Young 47
6 Scholten 51, King 49
7 Dejear 51, Pate 49
8 Miller 85, Battaglia 15
9 Gannon 53, Naig 47
10 Sand 54, Mosiman 46
11 Fitzgerald 60, Davis 40
12 Democrats 53, Republicans 47
13 Democrats 23, Republicans 27
14 4th
15 Jackie Smith vs Bertrand
16 Missouri
17 Democrats 235, Republicans 180
18 Democrats 47, Republicans 53
miketram01 Tue 6 Nov 6:24 AM
I know i'm too late but want to give it a try anyway
1. 1,220,000
2. Hubbell 50 percent, Reynolds 48 percent
3. Finkenauer 54.5 percent, Blum 42.5 percent
4. Loebsack 55 percent, Peters 44 percent
5. Axne 48 percent, Young 47 percent
6. King 49 percent, Scholten 46.5 percent
7. DeJear 50.1 percent, Pate 49.9 percent
8. Miller 74 percent, Battaglia 26 percent
9. Naig 53 percent, Gannon 47 percent
10. Sand 54 percent, Mosiman 46 percent
11. Fitzgerald 60 percent, Davis 40 percent
12. 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
13. 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats
14. IA-03
15. House district 55 (that’s were I spent my high school exchange 20 years ago and got to love Iowa)
16. Missouri
17. 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans
18. 50 Republicans, 50 Democrats
johannes Tue 6 Nov 1:09 PM
I'll allow this
I don’t think you could have received any inside information that would give you an advantage!
desmoinesdem Tue 6 Nov 8:44 PM