Clear majorities of Iowans disapprove of how the state legislature and executive branch are handling mental health care, Medicaid, education funding, and taxes, according to the latest statewide survey by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom.

Even worse for Republicans: more than 70 percent of respondents said each of those issues would be a “major consideration when you choose how you will vote in the 2018 election.”

Live callers asked respondents, “I’d like to turn to some state government policy areas. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way this is being handled by the state Legislature and executive branch.”

The worst results were on mental health: just 25 percent approve, 64 percent disapprove.

On Medicaid, which the Branstad/Reynolds administration privatized: 30 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove.

On funding for K-12 education, which has not kept pace with rising costs for several years in a row: 35 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove.

Nearly identical numbers on funding for higher education, which had to absorb large budget cuts earlier this year: 35 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove.

On taxes: 34 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove.

The legislature and executive branch were also in negative territory on handling of the state budget (38 percent approve/48 percent disapprove) and abortion (31 percent approve/46 percent disapprove).

Only three of the ten issues polled found more Iowans saying they approved than disapproved of state government’s performance: economic development (54 percent/31 percent), guns (47 percent/39 percent), and water quality (48 percent/36 percent).

Next, the poll read through the same list, asking respondents whether “this issue will or will not be a major consideration when you choose how you will vote in the 2018 election.” The top result was K-12 education funding (79 percent said “major consideration”), followed by mental health and taxes (77 percent each), Medicaid and state budget (72 percent each), higher education funding (67 percent), guns (65 percent), economic development (64 percent), water quality (58 percent), and abortion (55 percent).

These results may help explain why the same Selzer poll found a slim majority of Iowans approve of Governor Kim Reynolds’ work, but only 35 percent would vote for her if the election were held today. In contrast, 49 percent said “it’s time for someone new” in the governor’s office.

Republicans can take heart from a few realities. Selzer & Co surveyed 802 Iowans–not registered voters or those who have voted in past midterms. Turnout for the 2010 and 2014 elections in Iowa was about a third lower than for the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections, so it’s likely that many of these poll respondents won’t vote next November.

Moreover, as Tony Leys reported for the Des Moines Register, the legislature’s approval rating is 45 percent, with 35 percent disapproving and 20 percent unsure. For whatever reason, a significant number of respondents who don’t like what is going on with school funding, Medicaid, mental health and so on are not directly blaming the state legislature for those failures.

Leys noted,

The poll also suggests Iowans are split over who should control the Iowa Senate and House of Representatives. Just 27 percent would like to see Republicans maintain control over both chambers; 31 percent would like Democrats to gain control of both chambers; 35 percent would like to see each party control one chamber; and 7 percent are unsure.

Those findings may reassure GOP lawmakers that conditions are not ripe (yet) for a Democratic wave.

On the other hand, this poll is another sign Iowans don’t like what they see happening to critically important public services for children and vulnerable adults. If Republican lawmakers stiff K-12 schools and higher education for another year while passing large tax cuts skewed to wealthy individuals and corporations, they will only reinforce that view. Nor is happy talk from Reynolds likely to convince Iowans that things are in fact improving for people on Medicaid, or for those who struggle with mental health issues, or for students in public schools, state universities, and community colleges.

I remain convinced that the governor’s refusal to break with even one high-profile Branstad administration policy was an enormous strategic error. Imagine if Reynolds had acknowledged that Medicaid privatization has failed. Not only would she be doing the right thing for hundreds of thousands of her constituents, she would probably have bumped up her approval rating significantly.